Ever Changing Perspective, Week by week

CINCYMETJACKET

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This pitching curse drives me nuts. I am a huge believer that pitching wins in baseball, offense is cool, but good pitching beats good hitting. As we so often see when GT gets into the post-season.

Yet, here we are again. GT has a 5.68 team ERA (admittedly ruined badly by Saturday's game, but still...). (NB, all data in this posting are for the full season stats so far.)

We lead the league in walks. In fact, our 102 walks in 20 games (5 per game) are virtually double the volume of walks given up by good pitching staffs. UVa has yielded 61 walks and UNC only 58. Those are HUGE differences. Same story with HBP. We are tied for league-worst with 31 while good staffs yield 15 (UVa) and 17 (UNC). I am ignoring conference only stats for the moment because it's only 6 games, but trust me when I say we lead the league in being the worst in both those categories.

I simply don't understand why our pitching is so poor. My understanding of pitching excellence is that it is NEVER really about the quality of your "stuff" per se, but about how well you can locate your pitches. Greg Maddox is my hero, but he never had a killer fast ball or anything but pinpoint control. It seems like we keep trotting guys out who have great "stuff" somehow hoping they will learn to control it. Maybe we should be rewarding guys with average "stuff" who can hit their spots? I'm NOT close enough to say that's what we're doing. I am just saying we see this same pattern year, after year, after year.

And I'm getting tired of it.
Didn't know where to post this. There was a post that made me recall this comment from Max Scherzer after his first spring training start, but I don't recall where it was (I've been drinking...). But I believe it's applicable:

“The first time out I wanted just to come in and fill up the zone,” said Scherzer, who featured all five of his pitches. “If you have a feel for the strike zone then you learn how to kind of pitch around the strike zone. But you can’t do that until you just pour it in there pitch after pitch, so that was a good thing today with throwing a lot of strikes and got my work in and five innings.”

We need more pitchers who are just willing to "fill up the zone", especially early on in the season. I realize that Scherzer is a future Hall of Fame pitcher, but his philosophy should be adopted by any pitcher that wants to be successful.
 

senoiajacket

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Week 4 perspective

Perspective: Its been well established we can rake, as expected. Still don’t trust our pitching overall. Hope we grow into it.

Expectation: Be playing on Sunday in a regional. Top 5 in ACC
Week 5 perspective.

Perspective: We’ve played ~40% of our games. The pitching has not sorted itself out. It’s not going to. We are not an elite team.

Expectation: no better than third in the costal. The next 4 acc series will be brutal. Hopeful we can do enough to make the tournament.
 

senoiajacket

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Week 5 perspective.

Perspective: We’ve played ~40% of our games. The pitching has not sorted itself out. It’s not going to. We are not an elite team.

Expectation: no better than third in the costal. The next 4 acc series will be brutal. Hopeful we can do enough to make the tournament.
Week 6 perspective

Perspective: we have talent, we lack consistency & focus at times. Not sure I can see improvement to date. Encourage by young arms.

Expectations: None. I’m taking it game by game, at least until we go on a crazy winning streak
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Week 6 Perspective: It wasn't long ago that we were ranked #12 in the country, or higher, and a lot of people were singing our praises. Now we've lost 2 ACC weekends in a row, including an 0-3 showing in Raleigh, A wise man on this board has consistently stated that it's never as good as it seems, or as bad as it seems...

Expectation: As always, take it game by game, series to series. But my expectation today is that we start to play better fundamental baseball. Pitch the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball, hit the ball. From the NC State Series, we need better fundamental baseball in all aspects of the game. Pitching, fielding, and situational hitting. I believe that we have the talent to do it. We just need to do it!
 

4shotB

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Expectation: As always, take it game by game, series to series. But my expectation today is that we start to play better fundamental baseball. Pitch the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball, hit the ball. From the NC State Series, we need better fundamental baseball in all aspects of the game. Pitching, fielding, and situational hitting. I believe that we have the talent to do it. We just need to do it!
I want to ask these questions here as the group on here is knowledgeable, informed and can discuss things without the emotions that can poison our other forums. I have enough history with the program as a casual observer to understand that pitching is a historical Achilles heel for us. I also know that many (most?) of you have confidence that this will be different going forward due to the new pitching coach and his methods.

However, I am also informed enough to know that we (unlike our BB and FB teams) have recruited at a level equal to or better than our competition. Which sort of leads into my question(s)...are you concerned as I am when the discussion turns to "poor fundamentals' in ANY sport? (To me, fundamentals should be a given for any team in any sport. That is controllable. Talent however is a variable which is not as easily controllable...imo).

Would you say that this is like pitching...a fundamental characteristic of a Danny Hall program (it seems that I hear this too) or is this year a "one off" due to youth and inexperience? I know that our teams are ALWAYS recognized as being a potent offensive team and I am trying to sort out the myths from the realities from people with accurate and deep perspective. I admit to having almost none so this is why I am asking.

BTW, if y'all consider this a thread derailment I would be happy to split it out as a separate thread. Or, if you think it is out of bounds, you can report it and I will delete it. But I am hoping for informative discussion here.
 

ScGold

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Perspective: same as the last several years waiting for the house to burn down again. I already smell smoke.
 

FredJacket

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I want to ask these questions here as the group on here is knowledgeable, informed and can discuss things without the emotions that can poison our other forums. I have enough history with the program as a casual observer to understand that pitching is a historical Achilles heel for us. I also know that many (most?) of you have confidence that this will be different going forward due to the new pitching coach and his methods.

However, I am also informed enough to know that we (unlike our BB and FB teams) have recruited at a level equal to or better than our competition. Which sort of leads into my question(s)...are you concerned as I am when the discussion turns to "poor fundamentals' in ANY sport? (To me, fundamentals should be a given for any team in any sport. That is controllable. Talent however is a variable which is not as easily controllable...imo).

Would you say that this is like pitching...a fundamental characteristic of a Danny Hall program (it seems that I hear this too) or is this year a "one off" due to youth and inexperience? I know that our teams are ALWAYS recognized as being a potent offensive team and I am trying to sort out the myths from the realities from people with accurate and deep perspective. I admit to having almost none so this is why I am asking.

BTW, if y'all consider this a thread derailment I would be happy to split it out as a separate thread. Or, if you think it is out of bounds, you can report it and I will delete it. But I am hoping for informative discussion here.
Good questions and thoughts.

I'll start with some perspective on the program. We are spoiled with Ga Tech baseball. The expectations are extremely high because of the sustained success. I went back 15 seasons (not including 2020.. covid). TEN of those seasons the team won over 35 games. Only once (2017) did it win less than 30. That was a disappointing 27 win season. To CDH's credit a correction was made. Entering 2018, he went out and got the best assistant coach he's ever hired in James Ramsey. CJR made an immediate impact on the offense and his teaching and development of players on offense (and defense) is now "imbedded" in the program. We get on base and hit balls hard and score a lot of runs. & we're back above 30 wins each season.

With these high expectations, comes an unrealistic assumption winning in the post-season should be happening easily. Post-season college baseball is so unforgiving. I'll grant that it "feels like" Ga Tech has somehow failed in the post-season more often than not; but when it comes down to it... these post-season weekends require everything to go your way. Get some breaks. Have a pitcher step up. Make no mistakes. The margins are miniscule. I blame "baseball" and the format more than I do any particular Tech team, player, or coaching staff. Others see it differently. I get that.

Fundamentals covers a lot of different things. My first thought is we (me included) should calm down a little on this. Until we see a real trend (not just a handful of games), I am willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt as we sit here today. Going into this season, we all knew/acknowledged that the middle infield was going to be a big question mark. A shaky middle infield is a recipe for disaster as they get a TON of the defensive opportunities. Problems there tend to propagate to other defenders (see issues receiving at 1B). Fortunately, our early season team MVP (Simpson) made it appear our concerns would be alleviated. Then he got hurt. Add to that, he got hurt at a critical point in the season... when the [ACC] competition was ramping way up. This created a mess for the middle infield. It forced the staff to scramble to figure out the pieces needed. It has not gone well. They've tried many combos and there have been breakdowns. Bottom line (for me) is I expect a decrease in fundamental mistakes as the season continues.

Pitching has been our achilles heal and continues to be. I think I may be a little less patient than others regarding our pitching. The notion that we'll see improvement once "DBo's guys" [the lower classmen] get some more time sort of irritates me. I understand the sentiment; but I assume DBo would agree that he's expected to get the most out of ALL the pitchers; and frankly, we just have not seen very many pitchers get better over the last 2 years. Huff and Medich(?) are perhaps the notable exceptions and I'm thrilled to see that. Gives me hope DBo knows what he's doing. However, there is a much longer list of veteran guys who have (for some reason...probably different reasons) shown no improvement or gone backwards. I'm the eternal optimist and do still believe DBo is the right guy. So.. I'm still hopeful whether it is with these Freshman who are pitching great or something with the veterans that clicks.. I'm hopeful we'll see a turnaround. We have to have that for this team to compete at the highest level.

Final thought... the ACC is so loaded. College baseball in general has an elevated talent pool. This could be a year where you have to pay very close attention to SEE how good we are and not just wait until May and look at the record. Let's hope the "committee" understands that, makes the correct assessments, and rewards the conference with a significant number of post-season host sites.

Circling back... we have a great program with high quality talent. We win a lot of games. If we can pick out some of the nits above, then we'll see results improve. That's an improvement from really good to outstanding. Personally, I need to keep reminding myself I take for granted the really good.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Good questions and thoughts.

I'll start with some perspective on the program. We are spoiled with Ga Tech baseball. The expectations are extremely high because of the sustained success. I went back 15 seasons (not including 2020.. covid). TEN of those seasons the team won over 35 games. Only once (2017) did it win less than 30. That was a disappointing 27 win season. To CDH's credit a correction was made. Entering 2018, he went out and got the best assistant coach he's ever hired in James Ramsey. CJR made an immediate impact on the offense and his teaching and development of players on offense (and defense) is now "imbedded" in the program. We get on base and hit balls hard and score a lot of runs. & we're back above 30 wins each season.

With these high expectations, comes an unrealistic assumption winning in the post-season should be happening easily. Post-season college baseball is so unforgiving. I'll grant that it "feels like" Ga Tech has somehow failed in the post-season more often than not; but when it comes down to it... these post-season weekends require everything to go your way. Get some breaks. Have a pitcher step up. Make no mistakes. The margins are miniscule. I blame "baseball" and the format more than I do any particular Tech team, player, or coaching staff. Others see it differently. I get that.

Fundamentals covers a lot of different things. My first thought is we (me included) should calm down a little on this. Until we see a real trend (not just a handful of games), I am willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt as we sit here today. Going into this season, we all knew/acknowledged that the middle infield was going to be a big question mark. A shaky middle infield is a recipe for disaster as they get a TON of the defensive opportunities. Problems there tend to propagate to other defenders (see issues receiving at 1B). Fortunately, our early season team MVP (Simpson) made it appear our concerns would be alleviated. Then he got hurt. Add to that, he got hurt at a critical point in the season... when the [ACC] competition was ramping way up. This created a mess for the middle infield. It forced the staff to scramble to figure out the pieces needed. It has not gone well. They've tried many combos and there have been breakdowns. Bottom line (for me) is I expect a decrease in fundamental mistakes as the season continues.

Pitching has been our achilles heal and continues to be. I think I may be a little less patient than others regarding our pitching. The notion that we'll see improvement once "DBo's guys" [the lower classmen] get some more time sort of irritates me. I understand the sentiment; but I assume DBo would agree that he's expected to get the most out of ALL the pitchers; and frankly, we just have not seen very many pitchers get better over the last 2 years. Huff and Medich(?) are perhaps the notable exceptions and I'm thrilled to see that. Gives me hope DBo knows what he's doing. However, there is a much longer list of veteran guys who have (for some reason...probably different reasons) shown no improvement or gone backwards. I'm the eternal optimist and do still believe DBo is the right guy. So.. I'm still hopeful whether it is with these Freshman who are pitching great or something with the veterans that clicks.. I'm hopeful we'll see a turnaround. We have to have that for this team to compete at the highest level.

Final thought... the ACC is so loaded. College baseball in general has an elevated talent pool. This could be a year where you have to pay very close attention to SEE how good we are and not just wait until May and look at the record. Let's hope the "committee" understands that, makes the correct assessments, and rewards the conference with a significant number of post-season host sites.

Circling back... we have a great program with high quality talent. We win a lot of games. If we can pick out some of the nits above, then we'll see results improve. That's an improvement from really good to outstanding. Personally, I need to keep reminding myself I take for granted the really good.

Well, I'm more patient with pitching long term and less patient with our post season chances short term.

I think we have a reasonable statistical base for looking to the tourney since we've played 53% of our games (29 of 55) and 40% of our ACC series (4 of 10).

Right now, I think we are probably in the NCAA tournament due to our strong play against teams >100 RPI (10-0). And our RPI is 7 since we've played the second hardest (SOS=2) schedule so far. You get a lot of credit for losing to good teams in the RPI system. But very borderline since the rule of thumb has been that you need to be at 500 in the ACC or SEC or better to get a bid. Still a lot of baseball to be played and if we don't get better than the last 3 weeks, we won't go. But we will get better with Chandler back.

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Pitching is an enigma to me. We are almost perfectly inconsistent. Most pitchers who had done well so far didn't at UVa and then Maxwell found his groove again. I believe DBo will continue to improve as the Fr get experience; even our best recent pitcher X Curry didn't do well his Fr year. Our ERA at 6.18 is worse than last year at 5.7 to end the year. So given how much of the season is gone and our ERA increase over the last three weeks, I don't see how we see great improvement in the next few weeks. But I *believe* that DBo is the real deal on developing pitchers and has proven that. So this enigma will be resolved favorably for us.
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senoiajacket

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Week 6 perspective

Perspective: we have talent, we lack consistency & focus at times. Not sure I can see improvement to date. Encourage by young arms.

Expectations: None. I’m taking it game by game, at least until we go on a crazy winning streak
Week 7 perspective

Perspective: The next two ACC series can make or break our ACC season. Really "need" to go 4-2 to position ourselves to finish strong. We are 4-6 in our last 10.

Expectations: Opportunity awaits. F$U and UNC are in the bottom 4 in the conf in BA and OBP. F$U near the top in strikeouts. The 4 ACC teams we have played occupy 4 of the top 6 positions in BA in teh conference. I'm looking for hope that our pitching can find some consistancy. Truthfully though, I am tempering any expectations.
 

FredJacket

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Week 7 perspective

Perspective: The next two ACC series can make or break our ACC season. Really "need" to go 4-2 to position ourselves to finish strong. We are 4-6 in our last 10.

Expectations: Opportunity awaits. F$U and UNC are in the bottom 4 in the conf in BA and OBP. F$U near the top in strikeouts. The 4 ACC teams we have played occupy 4 of the top 6 positions in BA in teh conference. I'm looking for hope that our pitching can find some consistancy. Truthfully though, I am tempering any expectations.
Due to sample size... one factor in those numbers is teams we've yet to play haven't had opportunity to pad offensive stats like those teams we have already played.
 

bensaysitathome

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We won a series we should have won. My interest is back. Huff, Grissom, and Maxwell are looking pretty good. My expectation is we finish 9-6 in the ACC by winning 4 of the last 5 series. And go to an SEC hosted regional.
I tend to agree, I think 9-6 means our goals are still achievable. We have two tougher series left, @UNC and vs MIA. I think we have to go 3-3 at a minimum in those two series. Then the other three (v DUKE, @CLEM, @PITT) are the more manageable of the schedule. 6-3 would be the minimum here.

Having said that, hosting is not out of the question. We were a couple fielding errors away from sweeping a ranked FSU team. Clean that up, and we can play our way back into the conversation with our strength of schedule.
 

FredJacket

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Midpoint of the ACC schedule. Some implications discussed across other threads. I'll pile on...

Miami has a COMMANDING lead in the Coastal. I'll admit I would have never predicted any team more than 2 or 3 games up on the rest of the division at this point in the season. Miami at 13-2 in the ACC having won all 5 series and sweeping the last 3 in a row. That's impressive; and frankly, it means the "rest of us" are in a fight for 2nd place in the division.

Ga Tech (7-8) can get there. Only Miami & UVA has more wins than Ga Tech:

MIAMI (13-2): Still half the schedule remaining; but would take a colossal collapse by Miami for Ga Tech to a make up 6 games on Miami. We do host them in a few weeks. Need help and to sweep them when we play. One can "hope", I guess.

UVA (9-6): Need a tiny bit of help to get past UVA. Their schedule is not too scary and they own tiebreaker over GT.

VT (7-6): If no more games are cancelled, our tiebreaker advantage with VT is useless. It won't come into play unless both teams end up at .500 (GT 15-15 and VT 14-14) and .500 won't be close to 2nd place. VT will only get 28 games max after 2 v ND were cancelled.

PITT (7-7), UNC (7-8): We have yet to play these teams. Just win series (esp those head-to-heads remaining).

DUKE (3-13): We get Duke in Atlanta. Need to keep boot on their neck that weekend. Make some hay. Also would be nice if Duke figured out how to win over Pitt and VT (still ahead on their schedule)

What is the path (narrow as it seems right now for Ga Tech to host a regional. The question sort of becomes how many ACC teams will host a regional?... probably 3-4 at the most. D1 Baseball's mid-season projections had 4 ACC teams hosting.

A good spot to start for hosting is get to top 4 seed for the ACC tournament. The format of the conference tournament & and quality of teams top to bottom in the conference is such that if you aren't a top 4 seed, it doesn't much matter where you fall for the ACC tournament. As a 5-12 seed, you have to win both pool play games to advance to weekend of the tournament. Ga Tech has enough talent to win 2 games in Charlotte and advance. So.. it comes down to who may or may not be hot in your pool as to how that tournament goes. If you can't be a top 4 seed, I just prefer a pool not including UNC or NCST as the venue becomes a home field for those 2 teams.

Another path to hosting would be to show up at ACC tournament in the 5-7 seed range with a better than .500 conference record and good looking RPI and win the thing. Assuming Ga Tech continues on a path and finishes with a conference record in the 17-13 or 16-14 range, the RPI is likely to be strong... currently 9th based on a strong schedule.

Ga Tech dug themselves a hole due to below average pitching, shaky defense, and key injuries. The injuries (fingers-crossed) are behind us & better defense is correlated. The pitching has shown some flashes. A 10-5 type finish over final 5 series is possible.

If you want to wallow in a worst-case scenario, Ga Tech continues on this trajectory, ends season as a middle to lower-half seed in ACC tournament (around .500). Nothing special happens in Charlotte. Reward - A drive up to Athens for a regional hosted by a team we beat head-to-head early in the season.

To address this thread's theme, my perspective ... confused and "changing daily". I predict based on what I want in these cases. Ga Tech goes on a bit of a tear and cracks into top 4 of ACC by season's end OR.... something else happens.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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I tend to agree, I think 9-6 means our goals are still achievable. We have two tougher series left, @UNC and vs MIA. I think we have to go 3-3 at a minimum in those two series. Then the other three (v DUKE, @CLEM, @PITT) are the more manageable of the schedule. 6-3 would be the minimum here.

Having said that, hosting is not out of the question. We were a couple fielding errors away from sweeping a ranked FSU team. Clean that up, and we can play our way back into the conversation with our strength of schedule.
I would caution you on counting on that @PITT series. They currently are ahead of us in the standings, and we typically don't play well there. I hope this year is different, but the last time I watched us play there it was in the 70's, so the "it's 30 degrees and the team just wants to get out of there" argument didn't hold.
 

GTNavyNuke

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I would caution you on counting on that @PITT series. They currently are ahead of us in the standings, and we typically don't play well there. I hope this year is different, but the last time I watched us play there it was in the 70's, so the "it's 30 degrees and the team just wants to get out of there" argument didn't hold.

That field has a type of plastic rug they have gives them a great home field advantage. I had heard that the field had been upgraded; but just checked the website and it apparently hasn't been :( At least not the surface. GT has a really nice filed, but it helps to not have the Pittsburgh winters.
 

bensaysitathome

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I would caution you on counting on that @PITT series. They currently are ahead of us in the standings, and we typically don't play well there. I hope this year is different, but the last time I watched us play there it was in the 70's, so the "it's 30 degrees and the team just wants to get out of there" argument didn't hold.
Heard on that. I've been a Tech fan long enough to not count on anything. I'm more just identifying the tiers of opponent difficulty. I think Miami and UNC are the best teams remaining on our schedule, but nothing is a gimme.
 

Home Park Jacket

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We won a series we should have won. My interest is back. Huff, Grissom, and Maxwell are looking pretty good. My expectation is we finish 9-6 in the ACC by winning 4 of the last 5 series. And go to an SEC hosted regional.
Damn, we can hit the ball. We won another series we should have won. I'm going to keep to my expectation of winning 3 of the last 4 series, 7-5 record in those series. Not sure what to expect from any of these ACC teams after this weekend.
 

GTNavyNuke

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I would caution you on counting on that @PITT series. They currently are ahead of us in the standings, and we typically don't play well there. I hope this year is different, but the last time I watched us play there it was in the 70's, so the "it's 30 degrees and the team just wants to get out of there" argument didn't hold.

@Pitt just took the series over UVa who is better than we are.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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@Pitt just took the series over UVa who is better than we are.

And Miami just lost a series to VT who is worse than we are. Hard to say who is better than who really.

@GTNavyNuke, Is UVA really better than we are? They took their series from us at UVA, but with a lot of help from us.

@psjacket, are we really better than VT? Yes, we swept them at home the first ACC series of the year, but it wasn't easy. If I recall we got some breaks.

At this point, we might as well just throw ping pong balls for each of the ACC teams into a lottery style setup and see which balls come out on top!
 
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