Duke/Miami - Who to root for as GT?

[GTNavyNuke]

Ok, Miami is favored by 5 to 7 points in Miami. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Noon ESPN game.

Ok, Duke has played ****ty competition* but they have taken care of business and easily won. The only opponent adjusted stat out there I know of (before 7 games into the season) it S&P Offence at Football Outsiders. Overall, Duke is 53rd and Miami is 12th http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff (We are 13th!)

But if you go to the raw stats, Duke is 30th and Miami is 84th in overall offense. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category10/sort01.html Shows the importance of who you play. Alabama or Alabama A&M make a difference. On defense, Miami is 22nd and Duke is 46th (See ****ty *).

Who do WE want to win?

• The advantages for us of Miami winning is it shows Duke 2013 was a fluke. Then they have a week to realize they are pretenders. That's about it.
• But Duke winning would demoralize the bullies at Miami the week before they play us and make them even less disciplined. Plus Miami has a lot more talent and could get it together so Miami is more dangerous overall. A Duke win against a real team could give them a lot of confidence.**

Probably more of a benefit for us if Duke wins since I think we will run on them all day. I think the Duke/Miami game will be a close game (less than two scores difference).

But Vegas is right 80+% of the time so it's probably Miami which really doesn't matter much.

GT has control of our destiny. Last time that happened was in 2009 when we beat VT. We lost to Miami that year (only ACC loss of the year). But that discussion is next week.

* ****ty competition is defined by Elon, Troy (away), Kansas and Tulane.
** Duke fans don't have a lot of enthusiasm. Look at how their home game attendance has gone down ... was only 20K for Tulane last week. Beating them before they get going is important. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/team/193/index.html

 

[Longestday]

Miami already has 1 loss in the ACC and plays FSU. Duke has easy crossover games. I think it would be more beneficial for GT if Miami wins against Duke and loses to FSU.

That gives Duke at least one loss in conference and Miami at likely two loses in the ACC.

 

[00Burdell]

Root for Miami. That would give Duke a conf loss. Miami already has one.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

I prefer Miami to win. This gives Duke their first conference loss. Miami has already lost to Louisville. That would set us up to give Miami their second conference loss and repeat the same action with Duke the following week. If that happens we have a solid 2 game lead on those two heading into the next 5 conference games, UNC, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Pittsburgh. Not looking past anyone but I think this is the best case scenario for us.

Go Jackets!

 

[SwarmArmy]

Rooting for Miami.. Duke has an extra week to prepare for us, and that puts us at a little bit of a disadvantage in terms of preparation.

 

[4shotB]

But Vegas is right 80+% of the time so it's probably Miami which really doesn't matter much.

way off topic...but if this stat IS correct, why do we work for a living??? When we should apparently be gambling. What am I missing here?? Seems like a man could make a decent living off of 80% correct wagers as long as they were equally weighted.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

way off topic...but if this stat IS correct, why do we work for a living??? When we should apparently be gambling. What am I missing here?? Seems like a man could make a decent living off of 80% correct wagers as long as they were equally weighted.

Good question. Vegas is 80+% correct at picking the winner. But you bet against the line where Vegas is about 50/50, e.g. the betters end up with the best estimate of final score. Sorry for any confusion, I should have said Vegas is 80% right at picking the winner.

 

[Techfan14]

Root for Miami. If they win it will only help our chances of being ranked if we beat them.

 

[Mitch Matthews]

Pulling for miami as well. That makes things easier for GT

 

[redmule]

Miami is the more dangerous team. Got to hope for a Duke win. Put Miami out of their misery, put Golden on the hot seat, kill their recruiting if they lose to DUKE two years in a row. How can you swagger and be a thug when DUKE is kicking your butt. Even if they should then beat us, Miami will still have two loses with FSU coming, so they are out of the race.

We can take care of Duke in Atlanta. We lose to Miami, then we come out PO'ed and stomp them. We beat Miami and are 5-0, the boys begin to see what is possible if they Duck Fuke. Duke is better, but they aren't the Iron Dukes yet.

I still think VT might make some noise in the Coastal before it's over. Glad we've got the tie breaker.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I hadn't thought about the current standings in Coastal. But since we all have 8 ACC games to play, 2 out of Coastal, I think Miami is by far the better talent which can weather injuries as the season goes on ....... but Duke has the easy out of conference draw in Wake & Syracuse versus the Miami draw of Louisville and FSU. Miami will lose to FSU.

So I don't know who is the bigger threat even considering the Out of Conference bias. I'd still rather Duke takes Miami out for sure (3 ACC losses counting FSU) and gets Miami out of the running.

The good thing is that one of them is going to lose

 

[JDjacket]

Doesn't change any of the analysis, but the game is listed at 7:30PM on ESPN2 per ESPN

http://espn.go.com/ncf/conversation?id=400547754

 

[Animal02]

From the overall odds....Our most likely chance of losses are UM and Clemp. UM most likely losses are FSU and VT....which gives them 3 conference losses. Duke.....who knows.....a UM loss and loss to Tech keeps Tech in the drive's seat. Have to root for a tough in for UM.

 

[GTech63]

I prefer Miami to win. This gives Duke their first conference loss. Miami has already lost to Louisville. That would set us up to give Miami their second conference loss and repeat the same action with Duke the following week. If that happens we have a solid 2 game lead on those two heading into the next 5 conference games, UNC, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Pittsburgh. Not looking past anyone but I think this is the best case scenario for us.

Go Jackets!

My thoughts also. Frankly I think Miami is going to kill Duke. Revenge for last year. I don't think Duke can stop Johnson. I am not sure we can.

 

[Jay Alexander]

Duke. When FSU, Clemson, and Miami play inside the conference, I always root against them.

 

[Eastman]

My hope is more specific. I am rooting for a 5 overtime win by Miami despite the loss of Johnson and Dorsett with twisted ankles which put them out for 2weeks. Their quarterbacks throwing hand injury was not serious, allowing him to be 70% as accurate as usual for the Tech game. Dukes valiant losing effort comes despite 5 starting linemen experiencing mild concussions and the quarterback tweaking his shoulder which will keep them all out for the Tech game. That should do it.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Root for Miami?.....when hell freezes over maybe.

 

[Minawreck]

Root for Miami. Apart from all the standings ramifications, I would rather play a desparate Duke team coming off a big conference loss and 2-weeks off, than a desparate Miami team and amped up Duke team looking to start 2-0 in conference after their week off.

 

[awbuzz]

DA U needs to beat DaUKE.

Gives us the best opportunity to win Coastal Division. Of course that assumes we played well the rest of the season and win many more games

 

[Wrecker1990]

I understand that a Miami win might help us in the conference, but rooting for da' U is a little like rooting for the devil. Their fans approach the Dwags in arrogance and obnoxiousness.