Coronavirus Thread

[Techster]

In the name of young adults going to be young adults. Students who know they tested positive are showing up at parties in tuscaloosa.

It would be interesting to know what kind of legal ramifications there are with people who know they are infected and still go to gatherings. What if a kid gets infected from that party because of the person who knew they had it, then the kid becomes infected and gives it to his mom/dad and they have to go to the hospital?

I would assume it's like any other law if you knowingly have a contagious disease (think STDs) and give it to someone else.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Florida has every source of information anyone’s wanting, albeit not very organized but it’s there.

On a side note, last week the biggest hospital here closed down a very large testing site next to the hospital where I live because nobody was showing up for tests. They were allegedly averaging 20 mins in between visitors. The drug store drive thrus similarly shutdown due to lack of business. They were able to accommodate way more than what was needed just inside the hospital. The Urgent Care clinic had no wait either. Today, the hospital reopened the test site and a guy that works for me says the line is 2 miles long. They have someone at the end of the line sending people away because it will take all day to get thru the people already in line. Rumors have it they’re tripling up for tomorrow. Word has it the Urgent Care clinic is exploding. Crazy. Just a week ago it was crickets.

For a couple months during the shutdown, my county (population 500,000) had 0-10 new cases per day. Then after Memorial Day, they started going 15, 20, 30, 50, etc. Then they hit the 200s. We hit an all time high Monday of 278 (Monday/Tuesday are the low point traditionally for test numbers returned). 1 day later (yesterday) we reset the all time high from 278 to 375. In just 1 day. This is why some folks in the CDC think we all may have 10x as many cases out there right now - because of so much bad behavior, we went from a tamped down virus to an all out outbreak. There are probably 5000 people in my county who picked up the virus in the last week but haven't been tested yet and aren't feeling bad.

July is going to be a horrible month for hospitalizations and deaths here.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This study comes to the same bull**** conclusion as the one in Puerto Rico after the hurricane. It is true that deaths in both cases are significantly higher than the average number for that time of year. But without any evidence in both cases they both say "it had to be the hurricane/coronavirus".
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/off...unt-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

One of our friends on this board has caught this excess death tally and routinely pointed it out - we have like 100,000 more deaths than normal, not accounted for by COVID-19 deaths.

My wife being a nurse, she knows cardiac surgeons and similar doctors who say their heart attack and stroke patients have dropped precipitously. They're worried that many people are scared of the hospital and not going to the doctor when they experience adverse health symptoms. Its a good point to highlight and bring out, but its sad when supposed academic experts continue to release what they call studies, but make conclusions without any supporting evidence.

And I'll add that in fact the true excess deaths number is probably even worse than what this study shows, since all kinds of deaths like car wrecks and others are well down.

 

[RamblinRed]

For a couple months during the shutdown, my county (population 500,000) had 0-10 new cases per day. Then after Memorial Day, they started going 15, 20, 30, 50, etc. Then they hit the 200s. We hit an all time high Monday of 278 (Monday/Tuesday are the low point traditionally for test numbers returned). 1 day later (yesterday) we reset the all time high from 278 to 375. In just 1 day. This is why some folks in the CDC think we all may have 10x as many cases out there right now - because of so much bad behavior, we went from a tamped down virus to an all out outbreak. There are probably 5000 people in my county who picked up the virus in the last week but haven't been tested yet and aren't feeling bad.

July is going to be a horrible month for hospitalizations and deaths here.

Unfortunately that is the exponential growth we've seen with this particular virus over and over. Everything looks ok, just sort of putters along, maybe increases a little and then it explodes.
You have to catch it when the numbers are first starting to go up just a little and attack it them, before it even looks like a serious problem or it is too late and you are just trying to wrest control back from it.

We have 3 states right now that each individually has more cases on a daily basis than the entire European Union has.

Liberty's post above makes me worry about people living in FL. You can see it if you look at the charts for the various cities. Miami has it the worst right now - its increase started sooner, but both Jacksonville and Orlando had larger increases in 7 day rolling avg cases for the last 7 days - up 252% in Jacksonville, 242% in Orlando than Miami (223%). All of them have curves that have gone quite vertical. FL needs to do everything it can to keep it out of its more elderly population.

I'm just hoping that the measures we are taking - masks and social distancing, closing bars - is enough to get things back under control.

 

[RamblinRed]

This study comes to the same bull**** conclusion as the one in Puerto Rico after the hurricane. It is true that deaths in both cases are significantly higher than the average number for that time of year. But without any evidence in both cases they both say "it had to be the hurricane/coronavirus".
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/off...unt-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

One of our friends on this board has caught this excess death tally and routinely pointed it out - we have like 100,000 more deaths than normal, not accounted for by COVID-19 deaths.

My wife being a nurse, she knows cardiac surgeons and similar doctors who say their heart attack and stroke patients have dropped precipitously. They're worried that many people are scared of the hospital and not going to the doctor when they experience adverse health symptoms. Its a good point to highlight and bring out, but its sad when supposed academic experts continue to release what they call studies, but make conclusions without any supporting evidence.

And I'll add that in fact the true excess deaths number is probably even worse than what this study shows, since all kinds of deaths like car wrecks and others are well down.

All i'll add to this is we won't know the real toll for years. i'm highly confident the number of deaths and cases are both higher than officially reported, how much so, that will be for healthcare scientists to figure out like they do for everything else. That is one of the big misconceptions out there - the number of deaths caused by various diseases is not based on death certificates. That is one piece of it, but they also collect other data and use computer models to estimate what they believe to be a more true number. The flu is a great example of that. The number of death certificates that mention flu as one of the causes of death (a person doesn't have to die from 1 thing) is around 8,500-12,000 a year. But the final estimates, which are generated by the CDC 2 years after a flu season is over, generally go anywhere from 25,000 to 60,000 with the 10 yr avg being about 35,000 per year. So its easy to see the multiplier that happens once you get the computer models running that will include things like hospitalizations and doctor visits and various other statistics.

In some other countries, mainly in Europe, they have estimated deaths being 50-60% higher than reported. Whether that would hold for the US we won't know until more study is done.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

All i'll add to this is we won't know the real toll for years. i'm highly confident the number of deaths and cases are both higher than officially reported, how much so, that will be for healthcare scientists to figure out like they do for everything else. That is one of the big misconceptions out there - the number of deaths caused by various diseases is not based on death certificates. That is one piece of it, but they also collect other data and use computer models to estimate what they believe to be a more true number. The flu is a great example of that. The number of death certificates that mention flu as one of the causes of death (a person doesn't have to die from 1 thing) is around 8,500-12,000 a year. But the final estimates, which are generated by the CDC 2 years after a flu season is over, generally go anywhere from 25,000 to 60,000 with the 10 yr avg being about 35,000 per year. So its easy to see the multiplier that happens once you get the computer models running that will include things like hospitalizations and doctor visits and various other statistics.

In some other countries, mainly in Europe, they have estimated deaths being 50-60% higher than reported. Whether that would hold for the US we won't know until more study is done.

A big reason the EU reports deaths may be 50%+ higher is because they know without a doubt they had "thousands and thousands" (their words) in many different countries dying at home, unable to get to a hospital. There was no room, no ventilators, no nothing available. We haven't seen that, so ours are probably in the general ballpark. With how aggressively we count deaths (George Floyd counts, for example), we may be off a bit here or there, but I don't see us being off by 3x like we are some times with the flu. Its summertime and a pandemic, people are pretty aware of what's going on.

EDIT: 1 hospital here is turning down all new patients and sending them to other hospitals, they are full. Another hospital usually has a handful of COVID patients. They had 20 last week. They’re over 70 now.

July is going to be a truly horrible month, and it’s cast in stone already. That’s a weird feeling.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@RamblinRed I obviously am concerned both personally & professionally and trying to make the best choices for myself, my family and my Team at work. That being said where I live we tripled the number of tests being conducted in the last 3-4 weeks & our positive percentage remains relatively unchanged at 4%, crept from 3.6% to 4% in last 2 weeks. The number of positives have gone up but that’s largely because more people are being tested. The demographic has changed, the hospital admissions, ICU utilization and deaths not so much. We now have orders of magnitude more under 30 testing positive, frankly I think we’ve tapped out the nursing homes. The elderly & inform are either bunkered down appropriately or have already gotten it. Our hospital is still way under normal capacity, but slowly increasing. Our ICU utilization has risen but they’re really gaming the system keeping what would normally not be ICU patients in ICU because of revenue management by the hospital. Death rate is still low outside the nursing homes & maybe is even decreasing. Symptoms are less severe, but unsure if there’s anything around the corner associated with that. Our docs don’t think so except in the severe cases of which there are few.

I’m certainly not an expert but it looks like we got raging increases in numbers & we’re going to tally up more because of the explosion in testing coupled with a moderate rise in positives. I think we’ll see between 10x & 20x increase in testing this week alone. Don’t see the hospital being overwhelmed. Have a lot of the team that has spouses that work at the hospital, I have not heard a single person that’s not still on reduced hours. Some are heading to Dade, Broward, Palm Beach to find work, 3 days here and then 3 days there, that kind of deal.

Beach restrictions are in place now, mask are now required everywhere & the bars are shuttered. Guess we’ll see what’s up ahead but I hope it’s herd immunity and this thing peters out soon. It’s WAY TOO CLOSE to impacting football season. We may already have passed the point of no return & football season is going to suck regardless.

 

[RonJohn]

All i'll add to this is we won't know the real toll for years. i'm highly confident the number of deaths and cases are both higher than officially reported, how much so, that will be for healthcare scientists to figure out like they do for everything else. That is one of the big misconceptions out there - the number of deaths caused by various diseases is not based on death certificates. That is one piece of it, but they also collect other data and use computer models to estimate what they believe to be a more true number. The flu is a great example of that. The number of death certificates that mention flu as one of the causes of death (a person doesn't have to die from 1 thing) is around 8,500-12,000 a year. But the final estimates, which are generated by the CDC 2 years after a flu season is over, generally go anywhere from 25,000 to 60,000 with the 10 yr avg being about 35,000 per year. So its easy to see the multiplier that happens once you get the computer models running that will include things like hospitalizations and doctor visits and various other statistics.

In some other countries, mainly in Europe, they have estimated deaths being 50-60% higher than reported. Whether that would hold for the US we won't know until more study is done.

The reasons that he estimates are higher from the CDC for flu are that they only sample a small portion (9%) of the country for hospitalizations. They then extrapolate that hospitalization rate to the rest of the country. They then use estimates for death rates multiplied by the extrapolated hospitalization numbers.

On the CDC page that explains the process, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm, they explain that they use this method because:

Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates.

I am not claiming that the death certificate numbers for COVID-19 are exactly correct. However, even after years of study I see no reason that the ratio of estimated deaths from COVID-19 to death certificates will be anywhere near the ratio that it is for flu. There are not a plethora of pneymonia, heart failure, pumonary disease, etc. deaths that are omitting COVID-19 from contributing causes in the same manor that there are annually for flu.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Oops wrong thread

 

[RamblinRed]

The reasons that he estimates are higher from the CDC for flu are that they only sample a small portion (9%) of the country for hospitalizations. They then extrapolate that hospitalization rate to the rest of the country. They then use estimates for death rates multiplied by the extrapolated hospitalization numbers.

On the CDC page that explains the process, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm, they explain that they use this method because:

I am not claiming that the death certificate numbers for COVID-19 are exactly correct. However, even after years of study I see no reason that the ratio of estimated deaths from COVID-19 to death certificates will be anywhere near the ratio that it is for flu. There are not a plethora of pneymonia, heart failure, pumonary disease, etc. deaths that are omitting COVID-19 from contributing causes in the same manor that there are annually for flu.

I don't think the multiplication factor will go up like it does for flu, but I have no doubt it will go up. First we know alot of deaths were missed early on because we weren't testing. Second, every expert i've seen basically says the counted number is the most conservative one. My guess (and that is all it is) is that it will end up anywhere from 25-40% up.

 

[RamblinRed]

@RamblinRed I obviously am concerned both personally & professionally and trying to make the best choices for myself, my family and my Team at work. That being said where I live we tripled the number of tests being conducted in the last 3-4 weeks & our positive percentage remains relatively unchanged at 4%, crept from 3.6% to 4% in last 2 weeks. The number of positives have gone up but that’s largely because more people are being tested. The demographic has changed, the hospital admissions, ICU utilization and deaths not so much. We now have orders of magnitude more under 30 testing positive, frankly I think we’ve tapped out the nursing homes. The elderly & inform are either bunkered down appropriately or have already gotten it. Our hospital is still way under normal capacity, but slowly increasing. Our ICU utilization has risen but they’re really gaming the system keeping what would normally not be ICU patients in ICU because of revenue management by the hospital. Death rate is still low outside the nursing homes & maybe is even decreasing. Symptoms are less severe, but unsure if there’s anything around the corner associated with that. Our docs don’t think so except in the severe cases of which there are few.

I’m certainly not an expert but it looks like we got raging increases in numbers & we’re going to tally up more because of the explosion in testing coupled with a moderate rise in positives. I think we’ll see between 10x & 20x increase in testing this week alone. Don’t see the hospital being overwhelmed. Have a lot of the team that has spouses that work at the hospital, I have not heard a single person that’s not still on reduced hours. Some are heading to Dade, Broward, Palm Beach to find work, 3 days here and then 3 days there, that kind of deal.

Beach restrictions are in place now, mask are now required everywhere & the bars are shuttered. Guess we’ll see what’s up ahead but I hope it’s herd immunity and this thing peters out soon. It’s WAY TOO CLOSE to impacting football season. We may already have passed the point of no return & football season is going to suck regardless.

Liberty,
I'm so happy to hear the testing in your area is going well and that testing percentages are staying low - that percentage is way better than the state as a whole and suggests they can hopefully keep things in check in your area. I hope it stays that way for you, your family and your team and friends.
FL as a whole looks fairly scary. cases have risen 109% in the last week, 23% increase in positive test %, 69% incr in testing, 11.4% increase in deaths.
it's really good to see the testing rate take off, though with the positive test % still increasing they still aren't doing enough state wide to completely get their hands around it. Hopefully the measures people are taking now will help the numbers and we will see things start to trend downward in a couple of weeks.

 

[RamblinRed]

Atlanta HBCU colleges announce their plans for the fall.
https://www.ajc.com/news/local-educ...es-for-return-classes/4iP4JX1b68de2eHQVHvj4M/

Atlanta’s three largest historically Black colleges unveiled plans Wednesday to reopen their campuses for the fall 2020 semester that include significant changes such as mandatory face coverings in large settings, limiting how many students live on campus, ending in-class instruction by Thanksgiving and no in-person homecoming celebrations.

Each school will require students to be tested for COVID-19 when they return to campus. Students will undergo temperature checks and must complete an app-based daily symptom screening. The schools will also provide additional mental health services.

Clark Atlanta

• Freshman and sophomore students will take courses in reconfigured classrooms on campus while juniors, seniors — even those living on campus as ambassadors and mentors — and graduate students will take their classes remotely.
• No classes will be held on Wednesdays to allow workers to clean and sanitize the campus.
• Some residential halls will be reduced in accordance with federal health guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19

Morehouse

• Some classes will be held on campus while others will be done remotely. The curriculum for all classes has been loaded on a virtual platform.
• There will not be a fall break.
• Each student in a traditional residential house and Otis Moss Suites East will have their own room.

Spelman

• The only classes that are eligible for in-person instruction are those for first-year students. All other courses will be online for the fall semester.
• Students who take all of their classes remotely will get a 10% tuition discount and a 40% discount on mandatory fees.
• There will be no fall or spring break. The spring semester will start on Feb. 1.
• Residence halls will be available to a maximum of 640 students. Spelman’s enrollment last year was about 2,200 students.

 

[RamblinRed]

Now it gets serious. Gov Kemp raises the possibility of no college football if Georgians don't take responsibility and get the numbers turned around
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/k...orgians-don-don-masks/2HoT3KvfS0pdRzVsenibZO/

“If people, especially our young people, don’t start wearing a mask when they’re going out in public and our numbers keep rising, that’s going to be a tall task,” he said of the prospect of a college football season.
“But if we all hunker down right now, and dig in the next two or three weeks, we can get this turned in the right direction.”

 

[Techster]

Now it gets serious. Gov Kemp raises the possibility of no college football if Georgians don't take responsibility and get the numbers turned around
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/k...orgians-don-don-masks/2HoT3KvfS0pdRzVsenibZO/

“If people, especially our young people, don’t start wearing a mask when they’re going out in public and our numbers keep rising, that’s going to be a tall task,” he said of the prospect of a college football season.
“But if we all hunker down right now, and dig in the next two or three weeks, we can get this turned in the right direction.”

It's interesting that he's imploring everyone to wear mask, but he won't send out an order to make it mandatory like other states are starting to do.

 

[armeck]

It's interesting that he's imploring everyone to wear mask, but he won't send out an order to make it mandatory like other states are starting to do.

Which while this is a good intention - ultimately will not make a difference. This face mask tour is about 2 months too late.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Some of these statistics are confounding. Yale reports C19 undercounting of 125k deaths and an increase of 28% based on 781k people dying Mar-May. 2016 & 2017 deaths were 2.84M and 2,85M respectively or an average of 7808 deaths per day. In 92 days, we would have had an expected 718k deaths, 781k-718k is 63k or 8%. Even if you use 90 days you still don't get 125k or anywhere near 28%.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Now it gets serious. Gov Kemp raises the possibility of no college football if Georgians don't take responsibility and get the numbers turned around
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/k...orgians-don-don-masks/2HoT3KvfS0pdRzVsenibZO/

“If people, especially our young people, don’t start wearing a mask when they’re going out in public and our numbers keep rising, that’s going to be a tall task,” he said of the prospect of a college football season.
“But if we all hunker down right now, and dig in the next two or three weeks, we can get this turned in the right direction.”

I don’t see what governor Kemp is even talking about. So what if we have to play without fans. That’s better than nothing. The notion that we would not have sports played in some manner is pure idiocy.

North Charleston is one of the more dangerous cities around per capita. The mayor there said it best - he’s not going to mandate masks, because then someone has to enforce it, and there’s already too much distrust between the police and the community. Just wear a mask and social distance.

Stores can kick you out just like they can kick you out for not wearing a shirt or shoes. We don’t have police officers going around writing tickets and arresting people for it.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Now it gets serious. Gov Kemp raises the possibility of no college football if Georgians don't take responsibility and get the numbers turned around
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/k...orgians-don-don-masks/2HoT3KvfS0pdRzVsenibZO/

“If people, especially our young people, don’t start wearing a mask when they’re going out in public and our numbers keep rising, that’s going to be a tall task,” he said of the prospect of a college football season.
“But if we all hunker down right now, and dig in the next two or three weeks, we can get this turned in the right direction.”

Typical mutt, using the expression "hunker down". LOL

 

[RamblinRed]

Typical mutt, using the expression "hunker down". LOL

I noticed that as well and weighed whether I should mention it. Decided just to leave it alone.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

South Carolina set a new record for daily deaths yesterday with 19. We broke that record today with 24. July is cast in stone and it’s gonna suck.