Coronavirus Thread

[LongforDodd]

My wife and I went on a ride last Saturday night. We turned east on Ponce de Leon from Peachtree and right before the Krispy Kreme is a nightclub. There were people lined up outside right before sundown, 8:30'ish, carrying on like nothing had happened over the past three months. Big ol' SUV backed up at the front door with the stereo booming. Scary sh!t right there.

 

[takethepoints]

I evade a challenge LOL. I admit I am not owned by you and not beholden to answer every question that you offer. So sorry, yes lets move on. On South Korea, this state in India, and others, if I were you I would also just move on. Our folks are already revolting and protesting for just the stay at home orders we've had. There's no way we're going to transition to an Orwellian police state where we require special permission for people to just drive a car, all domestic interstate travel is shut down, people are electronically surveilled and tracked through GPS and credit card and video surveillance data, police regularly visit your home to check on you and your names and identities are published on websites and newspapers. That just won't ever happen in a million years.

I agree with you on this. One reason we have had such a lousy response to the virus is that some Americans have exaggerated ideas about what individual freedom means. But … consider this:

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/05/on-rioting-and-police-abolition

Yeah. There are numerous communities in the US where all the various horrors you mention above are routine. I'm guessing you don't live in one and I know I don't. But let's not kid ourselves here; we are perfectly willing to regulate communities using authoritarian means in this country. Shying away from this and saying that we can't put up with what may become necessary because we are Americans is false on its face. We impose similar restrictions on parts of our population already. We could do it and, unless we get a defense, we'll have to.

Or we can let a lot of people die. That's the actual choice.

 

[takethepoints]

Just make sure before you move there that you understand that all even domestic travel is currently shut down. You have to get special permission to just drive a car. If you test positive, they will send you to a special facility. And the list goes on. Why anybody finds that type of society inviting is beyond me. That is so far and away the antithesis of everything the United States stands for.

They are also dirt poor, which is essentially the sum total of what their society does for them. Their median net worth is something like $7k. And its only even that good because many people work in the oil industry over in the gulf and send their money back home. The median net worth in the United States is $100k. But I mean jeez, have at it I guess.

I posted the article. Did you think I didn't read it? I don't like some things the Keralans have done, but the tradeoffs make sense when you look at what's happening to the rest of India. It's not as if they're going to keep the restrictions in place forever, you know.

And, yes, people in Kerala are poor, though not as much as they used to be. Theirs is a much more equalitarian society then ours as well, however, with public medical care, land reform so that everyone gets a place to raise food, low cost public food stores in the cities, free public education, and a social security system for the elderly. The contrasts with the rest of the country are startling.

(Btw, most of the folks from Kerala who work in the Gulf states are doctors and nurses, not oil field workers/engineers. The Palestinians have that tied up. How do you think Yasser Arafat made his money?)

 

[GT_EE78]

NM

 

[LibertyTurns]

If you want to learn something about Kerala instead of just spout off, go to the link I provided and read about it. The "tradeoffs" in Kerala are very different then they are here and they make it crystal clear why the CPI (M) has run the state more often then not since it was first elected in 1957.

Interesting you’d pick a place that has a form of government prized by Conservatives and despised by Liberals.

 

[takethepoints]

Interesting you’d pick a place that has a form of government prized by Conservatives and despised by Liberals.

Since the government in Kerala is pretty much the same as you find in other Indian states, I'm guessing you are talking about the Indian national government. Nobody that calls themselves a conservative or a liberal should touch Modi and the BJP with a 10 foot pole. The guy is a borderline fascist; several of his BJP comrades go all the way over. No surprise; his party was founded (several iterations ago) by followers of Mussolini and the RSS (google them) is still a integral part of it. I know you don't like Trump much; Modi's administration makes his look like a sea of tranquil deliberation and expertise.

But his time is coming and that right soon.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Since the government in Kerala is pretty much the same as you find in other Indian states, I'm guessing you are talking about the Indian national government. Nobody that calls themselves a conservative or a liberal should touch Modi and the BJP with a 10 foot pole. The guy is a borderline fascist; several of his BJP comrades go all the way over. No surprise; his party was founded (several iterations ago) by followers of Mussolini and the RSS (google them) is still a integral part of it. I know you don't like Trump much; Modi's administration makes his look like a sea of tranquil deliberation and expertise.

But his time is coming and that right soon.

No, I was referring to a very weak central government and majority of power maintained at local level.

 

[awbuzz]

There seems to be a coincidence of the numbers spiking up with the amount of increased testing here in Ga. (?)

Why are you bringing reason into the conversation? It doesn't fit some people's narrative.
[emoji106]

 

[THWG]

I like this. A BMI check at say DisneyWorld. You get to skip everyone in line with a higher BMI. Incentives where it hurts.

Sounds like a good idea to me. I wouldn't be at the front, but I sure as hell wouldn't be close to the back lol.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Andy Slavitt and a few other pointy headed wonks were on PBS tonight talking about how we’re 5% of the world’s population yet we’re 35% of the world’s cases and deaths. “How could the richest country in the world have done so terrible?” Well of course the answer is that the assumption is false and fake. Our numbers are so bad because our testing, data and technology is so much better. They have 100,000 mass graves in Brazil yet only 20,000 have died there from COVID-19. Um, okay. Slavitt suggested we would have saved a ton of lives had Trump worn a mask. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Our society is in shambles. On a follow up question as to what he could have done better, he got even worse - he said Trump should have shown more empathy. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. He said by being honest and showing empathy, he could have gotten a B. Nobody was going to get an A in this pandemic. You just can’t make this stuff up. This guy is supposed to be a health expert, and didn’t actually give a single bit of advice on healthcare or what we could have done different or better. Good gracious.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Andy Slavitt and a few other pointy headed wonks were on PBS tonight talking about how we’re 5% of the world’s population yet we’re 35% of the world’s cases and deaths. “How could the richest country in the world have done so terrible?” Well of course the answer is that the assumption is false and fake. Our numbers are so bad because our testing, data and technology is so much better. They have 100,000 mass graves in Brazil yet only 20,000 have died there from COVID-19. Um, okay. Slavitt suggested we would have saved a ton of lives had Trump worn a mask. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Our society is in shambles. On a follow up question as to what he could have done better, he got even worse - he said Trump should have shown more empathy. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. He said by being honest and showing empathy, he could have gotten a B. Nobody was going to get an A in this pandemic. You just can’t make this stuff up. This guy is supposed to be a health expert, and didn’t actually give a single bit of advice on healthcare or what we could have done different or better. Good gracious.

The news was saved by who else but a GT grad, Desmond Dickerson coming on to talk about working from home. Guy is a rock star.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/desmond-dickerson

 

[takethepoints]

No, I was referring to a very weak central government and majority of power maintained at local level.

Oh. Well, yes, they have greatly decentralized the planning process and put it in the hands of local organizations and the local governments. But they still have a state plan for the whole place that's negotiated with local stakeholders and paid for, in large part, by the state. This all works because Kerala is a) the most highly unionized state in India, b) the parties in the left front (especially the CPI(M)) are deeply embedded at the local level, c) education and literacy levels are at European standards for both sexes (heresy in the rest of India), and d) everybody in the place knows they have a lot to loose and to gain by actually participating in government. And, believe you me, if we could get something like this going in the US, every liberal I know would be on the band wagon so fast the wheels would collapse. We'll have to see about that directly.

All this in a state that still has one of the lowest incomes in India. It's a very interesting story how that came about. You can look at the book link I posted earlier to see how it happened. There is a good short piece on this, but it is pay walled now.

 

[Techster]

Geez, who would have thought...

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-n...us-spread-expert-says/ScJKBSS7S4UMhVG60iALxL/

 

[RonJohn]

Geez, who would have thought...

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-n...us-spread-expert-says/ScJKBSS7S4UMhVG60iALxL/

So according to the article - maybe not all of the increase is from increased testing, but some of it is, but some of it isn't, some might be from a data dump, some of it might not be......

That story doesn't really inspire confidence in anything other than the data isn't perfect to draw conclusions. I have been looking at the IHME data, which has an "estimated infections" that I believe is using the percent positive along with the number of confirmed infections to estimate how many people are actually infected. That estimate has been dropping since early May, even as confirmed results have been steady or even increasing. People predicted that an exponential increase would be apparent two weeks after opening back up. Then it would take three to four weeks. Now people are predicting six to eight weeks? We are at about five weeks I believe.

It is still possible that things will get worse. If it does, there is a very long way to go before we overload the health care system. Even if it does get worse, I would rather have attempts to get people to act responsibly than have mandated shutdowns in a shotgun spread. Require masks in public, sure. Encourage people to engage in good hygiene, sure that should happen all of the time. Prohibit a guy separated from other people by 20' with a leaf blower from clearing a parking lot of leaves, why? We can use some common sense without resorting to extreme measures.

 

[Techster]

So according to the article - maybe not all of the increase is from increased testing, but some of it is, but some of it isn't, some might be from a data dump, some of it might not be......

That story doesn't really inspire confidence in anything other than the data isn't perfect to draw conclusions. I have been looking at the IHME data, which has an "estimated infections" that I believe is using the percent positive along with the number of confirmed infections to estimate how many people are actually infected. That estimate has been dropping since early May, even as confirmed results have been steady or even increasing. People predicted that an exponential increase would be apparent two weeks after opening back up. Then it would take three to four weeks. Now people are predicting six to eight weeks? We are at about five weeks I believe.

It is still possible that things will get worse. If it does, there is a very long way to go before we overload the health care system. Even if it does get worse, I would rather have attempts to get people to act responsibly than have mandated shutdowns in a shotgun spread. Require masks in public, sure. Encourage people to engage in good hygiene, sure that should happen all of the time. Prohibit a guy separated from other people by 20' with a leaf blower from clearing a parking lot of leaves, why? We can use some common sense without resorting to extreme measures.

Curious...why are you using IHME data? (In fact, why is our government using IHME data?!) It's been pointed out by several studies as being deeply flawed, and epidemiologist have stepped up to say that model shouldn't even be applied to Covid 19. The most widely used and tested methods to model epidemics are SEIR and agent based models. IHME model doesn't include Covid 19 features such as transmission of disease (kind of important don't you think?) or incubation period (also pretty important). IHME basically is a glorfied overlapping data map of other countries/cities that have been infected and applying it to countries/cities during outbreaks. It totally ignores the difference between one region's counter measures versus another's. For instance, if you applied IHME to New Zealand, New Zealand's numbers would have been astronomically higher than where they really are...which is to say, one of the best responses and outcomes to Covid 19 in the world. IHME is a statistical model with no epidemiological basis.

IHME has repeatedly given large gaps in estimates, and has been consistently outside the 95% intervals 70% of the time.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Oh. Well, yes, they have greatly decentralized the planning process and put it in the hands of local organizations and the local governments. But they still have a state plan for the whole place that's negotiated with local stakeholders and paid for, in large part, by the state. This all works because Kerala is a) the most highly unionized state in India, b) the parties in the left front (especially the CPI(M)) are deeply embedded at the local level, c) education and literacy levels are at European standards for both sexes (heresy in the rest of India), and d) everybody in the place knows they have a lot to loose and to gain by actually participating in government. And, believe you me, if we could get something like this going in the US, every liberal I know would be on the band wagon so fast the wheels would collapse. We'll have to see about that directly.

All this in a state that still has one of the lowest incomes in India. It's a very interesting story how that came about. You can look at the book link I posted earlier to see how it happened. There is a good short piece on this, but it is pay walled now.

The most communist part of India has the lowest income. Who would have guessed. Bernie Sanders likes to tout Fidel Castro’s literacy programs too.

 

[LibertyTurns]

The most communist part of India has the lowest income. Who would have guessed. Bernie Sanders likes to tout Fidel Castro’s literacy programs too.

That’s not the case. They’re a unicorn among Socialist states & it’s because of weak government with people having a much larger degree of control over their lives. It had been a decade or more since I heard anyone bring them up. The absence of a dictator is probably the reason.

 

[TechPreacher]

Of course. I am looking at this purely from an infectious vector standpoint. Church services are like concerts, several times in the day, every week. We are talking hundreds and thousands every week bringing in their exposures and spreading to others who may have otherwise been well isolated if not for attending. I can think of one church here, very big First Baptist type. They can easily house 1000 each service, 3 times every Sunday. Ignoring what you feel personally about attending church and it's importance to people - from a virus control stand point that amount of exposure is very, very bad.

I have the inalienable rights of freedom of worship and assembly. Therefore, I don't need permission to worship and assemble. Government thinks they can give me permission. But permission is the antithesis to liberty. When man's laws contradict God's laws, I will follow God's laws. Furthermore, there is no pandemic exception to the first amendment.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I have the inalienable rights of freedom of worship and assembly. Therefore, I don't need permission to worship and assemble. Government thinks they can give me permission. But permission is the antithesis to liberty. When man's laws contradict God's laws, I will follow God's laws. Furthermore, there is no pandemic exception to the first amendment.

Smoothing those edges a little, I would agree we 100% of those rights. I think it is incumbent upon us all when gathering or worshiping or any activity right now that we try to be responsible and safe. The biggest beef I have is when governments have passed regulations stating that under no circumstance can you assemble or go to church, but yet other organizations and business are exempt from that. That's unconstitutional and assaholic.