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I have a nit pick to your nit pick ; ) The geography and economies of the US are only truly local so long as we all generally remain in lock down, social distancing, and minimizing travel. As soon as the country in general opens up, and people start traveling freely, those invisible geographical distinctions will start disintegrating. From what I can tall, South Carolina is doing great. But if its citizens, and citizens of other areas with larger outbreaks, start traveling and mixing freely (and we are indeed starting to see some pretty crowded airline flights) those distinctions could start disappearing. Just look at the funeral in Albany Georgia. All it takes is one intermixing traveler with COVID to be introduced to a rural community to potentially cause havoc if those small communities are gathering in large numbers for things like church, funerals, bars, and restaurants.
Not saying we should not open up, I am just saying I would be cautious saying that a more "local" approach is needed. That is true now, while people still aren't really traveling, but that won't be true for too much longer I fear.
bobongo
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Seems to me the guidelines are the same everywhere because the virus behaves the same everywhere.
For instance, "stay 6 feet apart", and "wear a mask in areas where others are present". If you're in the country, you still need to stay 6 feet apart and wear a mask where others are present, it's just a lot easier to do that in a cornfield than it is in Chicago. The guidelines are the same in both places but in a cornfield, you can stay within the guidelines without doing anything. But if you're in the country and go to the state fair, you need to make sure you're 6 feet apart and wear a mask, just like in the big city.
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Yep. Our behaviors should all be similar, but what levels and numbers should trip a scale back alert should vary by locale and can only be managed by locale. For example, saying a state needs to have decreasing cases for 2 weeks is nonsensical. What if it’s New York and hospitals are still full? What if North Dakota’s cases are flat or slightly increasing but they have hardly anybody in the hospital and their numbers are very low? Another example is I think they recommend less than 5% or 10% positive tests to ensure you are testing enough. What if you’re right on the edge but you have a rigorous pre-screening process that strips half the test requesters out? Some states may demand that other areas with hot spots not enter, or in the least quarantine for 2 weeks when they arrive. You’ve got to allow for that flexibility which a 1 size fits all approach doesn’t work. States have different hospital and healthcare capacities and capabilities and so on. Some local beaches here have completely shut down their town borders and only residents can get in. Others have stayed open to the general public. They each have their own valid reasons for managing their own situations that way. If they see behaviors they do or do not like, they should be able to open up or shut things down irrespective of any federal guidelines and having to wait to see first what the outcomes of those activities may be.
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FredJacket
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There is a short list I have of things (universally) that dudes just can't look cool doing. For example, carrying a bouquet of flowers. Try as you might... it can't be done while looking cool. Not even The Fonz can pull it off.
The results are in.... add wearing a mask to the list.
Life sucks just a little more now.
The results are in.... add wearing a mask to the list.
Life sucks just a little more now.
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I try to spend about 50% of my time on COVID news talking to people from other countries (I am on another board that is heavily represented with people from around the world) and looking at news articles from outside the US. Since the US is behind most other countries with this it gives some sense of what it likely coming.
My biggest takeaway from that is that this is not going to be a smooth ride in any way. There are going to be alot of bumps and one step forward, one step back type events - and that is assuming things go relatively well.
We are seeing countries that have things much more under control than we do in the US and even they have issues. China shut down a northern region, SK has shut down bars and nightclubs for a month after having an outbreak originate in them. Singapore basically shut down for a month and quarantined migrant workers in their dorms to keep the outbreak there from spreading from the migrant workers to the citizens. Germany had 3 of its states halt their loosening of restrictions after they hit a trip wire (greater than 50 new cases per 100K residents). China's official unemployment rate is the highest it has reported in many years, it's true unemployment rate is likely incredibly worse. One article I read yesterday by a scientist who attempts to come up with a more accurate unemloyment rate estimates that 80M Chinese are unemployed and that is mainly in the cities since China does not attempt to track unemployment in rural areas.
You also find out that citizens (and even the governments) of other countries have very low opinions of the US Government right now. There was an article out of Australia last week talking about how all the Five Eyes intelligence agencies believe the US is pushing a false theory in terms of the origins of the virus. That the governments in Australia and Great Britian flat out don't believe the US. A poll released today in Australia asking about how they feel about various governments and how they handled the crisis so far gave very high marks to Australia (which they should, without a doubt one of the best) with 93% saying their Government did a very or fairly good job. The US came in last in the survey with 10% saying the US Government has done very (2%) or fairly (8%) well in its fight against the virus.
Alot of the European citizens I talk to are unhappy that the US has been largely unwilling to join in international efforts to fight the virus and try to find a vaccine. As someone who has a minor in International Affairs I will say that we are putting ourselves in a precarious position by trying to go it alone. While the large international consortium has pledged to provide any vaccine to all countries, it will take months, if not years to produce enough doses for everyone. It wouldn't shock me if that international group finds a working vaccine first (or China, who is also working hard on this) that the US might be forced to wait in line a little before getting doses (and certainly enough doses for the whole country given our size) - which would have both health and economic consequences.
One piece of good news. You don't have to do extensive testing if you have it completely under control. Places like SK are not testing nearly as much as the US because they don't have to. They basically have it under control. If an outbreak occurs they shut down that area and start testing and tracing cases at that point. But the numbers are small enough that they can stay in front of it and don't have to take much more widescale action. Taiwan is the same. The bad news is we aren't anywhere near that point. That point for the US is likely when the national daily death toll is in the single digits or low double digits and the number of cases nationally are in the hundreds - not 20-25K per day.
The other item you see alot is that the reporting on this is so bad in so many countries. One article in Mexico City had a source in the government say the actual numbers of deaths was at least 5X the official numbers and the reporters went around to various morgues and crematoriums to try to get a better sense of the true numbers. Most Central and South American countries aren't reporting anywhere near accurate numbers. some are on purpose by Governments trying not to look bad, some are governments that are simply overwhelmed and can't even come close to keeping up with the counting. India is another country that is likely very highly undercounted. That is a very caste society only only certain castes are being tested. Russia, Iran, China - all are believed to have numbers significantly higher than they have reported officially. There are some countries in Africa where this is starting to break out. I think it was Nambia where the US Embassy said it is basically running out of control but the government is not reporting any numbers. The only countries whose numbers are likely remotely accurate are Western countries and the more democratic Asian countries.
Finally, I want to leave with this tweet because I just love the idea and the image. Nice imaginative way for a cafe to make sure its customers are socially distancing.
My biggest takeaway from that is that this is not going to be a smooth ride in any way. There are going to be alot of bumps and one step forward, one step back type events - and that is assuming things go relatively well.
We are seeing countries that have things much more under control than we do in the US and even they have issues. China shut down a northern region, SK has shut down bars and nightclubs for a month after having an outbreak originate in them. Singapore basically shut down for a month and quarantined migrant workers in their dorms to keep the outbreak there from spreading from the migrant workers to the citizens. Germany had 3 of its states halt their loosening of restrictions after they hit a trip wire (greater than 50 new cases per 100K residents). China's official unemployment rate is the highest it has reported in many years, it's true unemployment rate is likely incredibly worse. One article I read yesterday by a scientist who attempts to come up with a more accurate unemloyment rate estimates that 80M Chinese are unemployed and that is mainly in the cities since China does not attempt to track unemployment in rural areas.
You also find out that citizens (and even the governments) of other countries have very low opinions of the US Government right now. There was an article out of Australia last week talking about how all the Five Eyes intelligence agencies believe the US is pushing a false theory in terms of the origins of the virus. That the governments in Australia and Great Britian flat out don't believe the US. A poll released today in Australia asking about how they feel about various governments and how they handled the crisis so far gave very high marks to Australia (which they should, without a doubt one of the best) with 93% saying their Government did a very or fairly good job. The US came in last in the survey with 10% saying the US Government has done very (2%) or fairly (8%) well in its fight against the virus.
Alot of the European citizens I talk to are unhappy that the US has been largely unwilling to join in international efforts to fight the virus and try to find a vaccine. As someone who has a minor in International Affairs I will say that we are putting ourselves in a precarious position by trying to go it alone. While the large international consortium has pledged to provide any vaccine to all countries, it will take months, if not years to produce enough doses for everyone. It wouldn't shock me if that international group finds a working vaccine first (or China, who is also working hard on this) that the US might be forced to wait in line a little before getting doses (and certainly enough doses for the whole country given our size) - which would have both health and economic consequences.
One piece of good news. You don't have to do extensive testing if you have it completely under control. Places like SK are not testing nearly as much as the US because they don't have to. They basically have it under control. If an outbreak occurs they shut down that area and start testing and tracing cases at that point. But the numbers are small enough that they can stay in front of it and don't have to take much more widescale action. Taiwan is the same. The bad news is we aren't anywhere near that point. That point for the US is likely when the national daily death toll is in the single digits or low double digits and the number of cases nationally are in the hundreds - not 20-25K per day.
The other item you see alot is that the reporting on this is so bad in so many countries. One article in Mexico City had a source in the government say the actual numbers of deaths was at least 5X the official numbers and the reporters went around to various morgues and crematoriums to try to get a better sense of the true numbers. Most Central and South American countries aren't reporting anywhere near accurate numbers. some are on purpose by Governments trying not to look bad, some are governments that are simply overwhelmed and can't even come close to keeping up with the counting. India is another country that is likely very highly undercounted. That is a very caste society only only certain castes are being tested. Russia, Iran, China - all are believed to have numbers significantly higher than they have reported officially. There are some countries in Africa where this is starting to break out. I think it was Nambia where the US Embassy said it is basically running out of control but the government is not reporting any numbers. The only countries whose numbers are likely remotely accurate are Western countries and the more democratic Asian countries.
Finally, I want to leave with this tweet because I just love the idea and the image. Nice imaginative way for a cafe to make sure its customers are socially distancing.
GT_EE78
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>if there's smoke,does that mean fire? guess the plot and bat soup will thicken,,,,,
Analysis of cellphone location data in high-security area of Wuhan virology lab that studied coronavirus in bats indicates it shutdown in October after a 'hazardous event'
NBC News reported that US spy agencies are reviewing the document - a private analysis obtained by the news company's London-based verification unit - which claims that there was no cellphone activity in a high-security area of China's Wuhan Institute of Virology between October 7 and October 24, 2019.The report, which was based on commercially-available cellphone location data - indicates that there might've been a 'hazardous event' in that area between October 6 and October 11.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...uggests-hazardous-event-October-shutdown.html
Analysis of cellphone location data in high-security area of Wuhan virology lab that studied coronavirus in bats indicates it shutdown in October after a 'hazardous event'
NBC News reported that US spy agencies are reviewing the document - a private analysis obtained by the news company's London-based verification unit - which claims that there was no cellphone activity in a high-security area of China's Wuhan Institute of Virology between October 7 and October 24, 2019.The report, which was based on commercially-available cellphone location data - indicates that there might've been a 'hazardous event' in that area between October 6 and October 11.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...uggests-hazardous-event-October-shutdown.html
takethepoints
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Just one thing. You calculate death rates for a disease by deaths among infected persons, not the population of the county/state/nation as a whole.
I hear you about being more selective about when and where to try to get back to normal activity. In general, I agree. The problem with doing so is twofold. First, as restrictions ease in some areas, people in areas that aren't yet ready will feel that they shouldn't be singled out and will start to defy the orders. We already see this a lot. Having a governor that absolutely forbids any local variation in his statewide orders (*cough* Brian Kemp) doesn't help. Second, if one area of a state re-opens more then another, some people in the areas that are still shut down will travel to the other areas. We saw this here in Georgia when Kemp opened several types of businesses still closed in neighboring states. People flooded in to get haircuts and such. Again, this doesn't help.
I noticed today that New York has opened some parts of the state, but that NYC, Long Island, Albany, and Buffalo and surrounding areas are still largely closed. They can do that because a) the state has had a very serious breakout that is barely under control and b) Cuomo has been pretty much the best in the country in telling people where they are and what's going to happen next, and c) New York is part of a regional consortium that is coordinating re-opening policies. This last is, I think, especially important; if the national government won't plan what to do, then it is up to the states.
Deleted member 2897
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By all accounts and metrics, the US is doing reasonably well in our fight of the virus. We have tested more people than the entire rest of the world combined. On hospitalizations and deaths per capita, we're solidly in the middle of our peers. Furthermore, we've worked hard helping send supplies to other areas of the world. If they give us poor marks for our handling of the situation, its likely that they get very 1-sided information in their news. As I've said before, I think most countries are doing the best we can. But I don't trust a lot of other countries' data. When they're not testing but you hear about mass graves and everything else, I mean IIWII.
takethepoints
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And heeeeere's Aaron! See:
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/lessons-from-singapore-and-reopening-the-united-states/
Short Aaron: think big. As big as the problem. I think a reactivation/increase of the surveillance network he mentions is the most likely to be useful. Too many Americans won't go along with even a German level of testing.
It might also be a good idea to learn form the AIDS epidemic. See:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...gue-real-and-shaming-people-wont-help/611482/
I'm inclined to agree with most of this.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/lessons-from-singapore-and-reopening-the-united-states/
Short Aaron: think big. As big as the problem. I think a reactivation/increase of the surveillance network he mentions is the most likely to be useful. Too many Americans won't go along with even a German level of testing.
It might also be a good idea to learn form the AIDS epidemic. See:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...gue-real-and-shaming-people-wont-help/611482/
I'm inclined to agree with most of this.
Deleted member 2897
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You can do it both ways. The more effective metric in my opinion is per capita across the population. That way you avoid the extremely variable testing volumes countries have.
GT_EE78
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Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down governor's lockdown order
>will need a few more of these to get the economy rolling
Local governments can still impose their own health restrictions, however. Officials in Dane County, home to state capital Madison, issued a local order minutes after the ruling came down, imposing a mandate identical to the now-invalidated state stay-at-home order.
ruling - Palm exceeded her authority because the extension amounted to an administrative rule, requiring legislative approval
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...cratic-governors-pandemic-lockdown-order.html
>will need a few more of these to get the economy rolling
Local governments can still impose their own health restrictions, however. Officials in Dane County, home to state capital Madison, issued a local order minutes after the ruling came down, imposing a mandate identical to the now-invalidated state stay-at-home order.
ruling - Palm exceeded her authority because the extension amounted to an administrative rule, requiring legislative approval
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...cratic-governors-pandemic-lockdown-order.html
Milwaukee
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There is a short list I have of things (universally) that dudes just can't look cool doing. For example, carrying a bouquet of flowers. Try as you might... it can't be done while looking cool. Not even The Fonz can pull it off.
The results are in.... add wearing a mask to the list.
Life sucks just a little more now.
Speak for yourself. I can pull off carrying a dozen roses, wearing a mask, while rocking pink shorts and white loafers. Believe in yourself
Kidding. I totally can’t.684Bee
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I really don’t give a damn what these other countries opinions of us are. We pull way more than our own weight, and we’ve saved many of their asses before.
Also, that cafe didn’t make the people wear those pool noodles. It was something set up by a local TV crew to see what the reaction would be.
Milwaukee
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Ramblin has a history of posting 2000 word essays with his own left/liberal agenda but he mentions 12 times within his rants about how he’s being non biased and just calling it like it is. He writes well and puts his thoughts down so well that a lot of people with no clue love it “Way to go Red”, “Red killin it!!”. He’s been preaching his agenda for 2 months now, most of us don’t pay it any attention. He’s in multiple forums saying the same things over and over.
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I'm impressed you think I have a left/liberal agenda, probably would be surprised by my voting record.
I also would never say I am unbiased, everybody has biases. But given my discussions on other boards there are some who think I am anything but liberal. On boards that have a more conservative audience I tend to be seen as liberal while on boards that have a more liberal audience I tend to be seen as more Conservative.
I tend to see myself as a slightly center-right moderate. That puts me in a funny place since both parties are largely extremist run entities right now. I will proudly say I have never voted a straight party ticket in my lifetime and I can't ever imagine doing so.
if I have a big bias it is in wanting to use verifiable, quantifiable data. That comes from years of graduate research and decades of data analysis work. That's why I like Nate Silver's twitter feed so much right now. He really goes after both the typical left wing and right wing talking points and spin and tries to keep the data as free from the stories as possible. I try and read alot from experts in their field and I give them more weight than people who are not experts in those fields.
I will also freely admit my other big bias - as I have mentioned it elsewhere. I've been someone that has disliked Donald Trump since 1994 when I saw him at a graduate school talk. He was a big talking, low on facts guy then and nothing has changed. He is still the same person now as he was then. He is who he is.
684Bee
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Yep, the Nate Silver that used to blog for The Daily Kos and The New York Times, and who admittedly votes for Democrats the majority of the time. He’s right down the middle.
takethepoints
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I was talking about the IFR used in the equations for total deaths. Should have been more specific. You can use total populations for something like your old favorite deaths per million population. Though why you like this metric so much when you have such a high level of mistrust for other country' stats is, frankly, beyond me.
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