Coronavirus Thread

[bobongo]

Hey, I almost always disagree with you, but I would never report you or wish that you would be banned.

You may report me all you want.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

You may report me all you want.

I have already said that I will not do that.

 

[bobongo]

I heard something about NZ last night, but no details.

The death rate there is 1/50 per capita that of the U.S., and they're beginning now to slowly re-open. They are completely on top of the situation. A few known cases remain, but they're quarantined and everything is under control. This is what we should have done - lock down from the outset - and now we would be ready to re-open. Sadly, we're re-opening but we are not ready.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I love how the 2 doctors that annihilated the entire narrative are now being blocked from YouTube and condemned by other doctors from the left. That tells you all you need to know, they let the cat out of the bag and the left are now panicking to block people from knowing. The problem is most of us have known all along lol.

Their videos are still there, so what has been blocked? Are they prohibited from posting any new ones? If so, that is censorship.

 

[bobongo]

I have already said that I will not do that.

That's nice. I haven't reported you, either.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The death rate there is 1/50 per capita that of the U.S., and they're beginning now to slowly re-open. They are completely on top of the situation. A few known cases remain, but they're quarantined and everything is under control. This is what we should have done - lock down from the outset - and now we would be ready to re-open. Sadly, we're re-opening but we are not ready.

Whether we are ready or not remains to be seen. As I posted earlier, 45% of the Copid-related deaths are in NY. Let them remain shut down, but why should the rest of the country do so?

 

[armeck]

The death rate there is 1/50 per capita that of the U.S., and they're beginning now to slowly re-open. They are completely on top of the situation. A few known cases remain, but they're quarantined and everything is under control. This is what we should have done - lock down from the outset - and now we would be ready to re-open. Sadly, we're re-opening but we are not ready.

I don't know if that could have worked here. Let's be real here, NZ is half the population of GA, much less the entire US. Also, being an island it is easy to restrict incoming and outgoing traffic. I'm glad they got their stuff under control, but I don't think it could have worked here with our republic structure and size of population.

 

[684Bee]

Their videos are still there, so what has been blocked? Are they prohibited from posting any new ones? If so, that is censorship.

The videos got millions of views and then suddenly were taken down. Now they are back up, but the view count started over. That’s what I was told, anyway. I haven’t even seen them.

 

[bobongo]

I don't know if that could have worked here. Let's be real here, NZ is half the population of GA, much less the entire US. Also, being an island it is easy to restrict incoming and outgoing traffic. I'm glad they got their stuff under control, but I don't think it could have worked here with our republic structure and size of population.

It wouldn't have worked as well, but it would have worked a helluva lot better than what we tried. What we tried was something in-between Sweden and New Zealand - a no-man's land of half-measures too little too late with inadequate testing - the worst possible "strategy", if you could even call it that. In a reasonable world the states would have gotten together, listened to the scientists, and agreed to make the sacrifice early on. We would be recovering now instead of indulging in wishful thinking.

 

[armeck]

It wouldn't have worked as well, but it would have worked a helluva lot better than what we tried. What we tried was something in-between Sweden and New Zealand - a no-man's land of half-measures too little too late with inadequate testing - the worst possible "strategy", if you could even call it that. In a perfect world the states would have gotten together, listened to the scientists, and agreed to make the sacrifice early on. We would be recovering now instead of indulging in wishful thinking.

The reason it wouldn't have worked is grossly political, so might best in the other threads. Basically: republic, federal overreach, tyranny, socialism, states's rights, etc.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The videos got millions of views and then suddenly were taken down. Now they are back up, but the view count started over. That’s what I was told, anyway. I haven’t even seen them.

Turns out the two doctors are not the only ones to be censored by Youtube and others ---

 

[armeck]

Turns out the two doctors are not the only ones to be censored by Youtube and others ---

https://twitter.com/BioscienceAytu

It is still there...

 

[GoldZ]

As for the posters here linking only articles that support their position.....what position would posters put posters in---who think Fauci and Brix have the right approach?

 

[takethepoints]

Maybe a mod got a little blood lust with the ban hammer. Turned it into a slaughter? It does seem a bit dead. Where is RonJon throwing some stoic stat at my post about how no one should ever try to have any thoughts on a subject until it has been dissected 28 ways by the hallowed halls of statistical academics and their learned PHD's. We should just be mindless minions to the higher enlightened beings.

We already are. You haven't noticed? Like, say, when your plane takes off?

 

[GoldZ]

I agree. Let er rip and see what happens. We should be able to see how well GA is doing in 2-3 weeks, right?

Probably longer since people aren't rushing to the "open" gate. Btw, what Kemp is doing is not what Sweden is doing (let er rip). The biggest flaw in Kemp's approach imo is, opening to some degree without testing and tracing in place.

 

[takethepoints]

It wouldn't have worked as well, but it would have worked a helluva lot better than what we tried. What we tried was something in-between Sweden and New Zealand - a no-man's land of half-measures too little too late with inadequate testing - the worst possible "strategy", if you could even call it that. In a reasonable world the states would have gotten together, listened to the scientists, and agreed to make the sacrifice early on. We would be recovering now instead of indulging in wishful thinking.

Actually, it has worked here. What New Zealand did is approximately what Washington did, albeit a bit late. Now, the states that are in the best shape are the West Coast coalition: California, Oregon, and Washington. A lot of people are talking about Cuomo these days, but a year or two from now it'll be Inslee and Newsome getting the ink. We could have done that nationwide though it would have taken a much stronger federal response, much earlier.

Well, we'll know better in the fall. I guess.

 

[Wrecked]

Actually, it has worked here. What New Zealand did is approximately what Washington did, albeit a bit late. Now, the states that are in the best shape are the West Coast coalition: California, Oregon, and Washington. A lot of people are talking about Cuomo these days, but a year or two from now it'll be Inslee and Newsome getting the ink. We could have done that nationwide though it would have taken a much stronger federal response, much earlier.

Well, we'll know better in the fall. I guess.

Not sure how much more of a federal response people would have gone along with. The Federal government can't close down a state. They could close interstates and air travel, but when that was threatened the governors raised hell. And without herd immunity and a vaccine, we really can't judge how much better states are. Since Washington and California have probably been dealing with the virus since December, their numbers look pretty good as they are much further toward that.

 

[herb]

Actually, it has worked here. What New Zealand did is approximately what Washington did, albeit a bit late. Now, the states that are in the best shape are the West Coast coalition: California, Oregon, and Washington. A lot of people are talking about Cuomo these days, but a year or two from now it'll be Inslee and Newsome getting the ink. We could have done that nationwide though it would have taken a much stronger federal response, much earlier.

Well, we'll know better in the fall. I guess.

I agree Newsome has done a good job and for the most part been above politics. Actually, I think for the most part everyone has done pretty dang good. All in the face of a constant drum beat of doom and gloom that thankfully has not materialized to the degree that was being forecast.

 

[takethepoints]

Here's a good article about a neglected aspect of the pandemic and our response to it:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/learning-from-las-vegas-research-ethics-and-covid-19/

I think Gardner is right. It is obvious that, however silly some of her remarks are, Goodman is not a complete fool. What she is is a common breed of American: the person in authority who has never thought twice about the ethics of research. She isn't completely alone in this; you can read stories of researchers zooming IRBs fairly regularly and most of them don't feel at all bad about it until they are caught. This is because how to do research without screwing over people or misleading future researchers is something regularly ignored in course work and practical applications. (I (ahem) did two lectures on this in my methods course and touched on it regularly. Others don't.)

Well, now we are learning about how this can be a problem, big time. The hydroxycloroquine fiasco is a great example, but there are plenty of others.

 

[takethepoints]

I agree Newsome has done a good job and for the most part been above politics. Actually, I think for the most part everyone has done pretty dang good. All in the face of a constant drum beat of doom and gloom that thankfully has not materialized to the degree that was being forecast.

As for forecasting doom and gloom, use this handy formula:

(Population in question * Infection rate) * Infection fatality rate = total deaths

As like for the US:

(330M * (say) 25%) * .0074% (the New York and Miami figure for IFR) = 610,500 deaths

Then remember we are only in the first phase of the epidemic. All this "flatten the curve" stuff was never meant to do anything except save the healthcare system from being swamped and losing lives due to lack of care, as in Italy. It doesn't have much to do with how many deaths we can expect over the course of the disease, barring successful therapies. The only thing that'll slow the course of the disease down is what we are doing right now and being careful about taking off the brakes. The only thing that will stop COVID-19 is a vaccine or, given the figures above, "herd immunity" purchased at a substantial price in lives. Hope we can get a vaccine ramped up soon.