Coronavirus Thread

[slugboy]

I’m sure people are having heart attacks and appendicitis at the same rate as before. Perhaps surgery for non-threatening types of appendicitis is not a good thing? Maybe we’re over-treating heart conditions and on balance that results in a poorer outcome?

Medical care is ENORMOUS BUSINESS. Companies are fantastically rich because of it. Doctors and lawyers make a ton of money. Hospitals, drug stores even the government LOVES the business medical care provides. Trillions of dollars here. What if we only really needed 10 percent of what we’re spending and the other 90% is pure waste developed to enrich the rich ? What if 90% of drugs prescribed and tests run were worthless and the only reason we’re doing then is it feeds the beast? Think of how unpopular this position is and how many would revolt at such a suggestion, but their livelihoods rely on that being false. What if this was 20% correct or even 10%? Huge money, thousands of jobs.

I’d think if that was the case then the patient would be coming in, and the hospital would be turning them away. The patients aren’t coming in for incidents like strokes.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

As bad a man as he proved to be in an overall sense, we need a (cleaned up) Joseph McCarthy today to at least wake up the public as to what's going on.

We need someone in the government to harass Americans based on their beliefs for....freedom?

 

[RamblinRed]

The Singapore issue seems to be mainly dormitory-style living conditions with migrant workers. I can see how that could have introduced it and spread pretty quickly. I noticed that they don't show up in your per capita ranking.

They don't show up because their numbers were so insanely low until 2 weeks ago. They basically stopped it very quickly at the beginning. But then the breakout in the dormitory style living broke out. Their deaths is still really low - 12 total. Their positive cases per 1M is now up to 11th in the world after the UK.
What Singapore warns is that you have to be very careful in how you continue to monitor it. Any miss and it can spread really fast - especially where people are in close contact to each other. It also warns that high temperature isn't going to offset close contact.

What is happening in Singapore causes me some concern for colleges in the fall. Those dormitories are more densely populated than US dorms, but the same idea is at play which suggests putting people in dorms, fraternities, sororities may be something could create a quick spread.

We are starting to see this in meat production plants in the US. They are turning into quick breeding facilities. There are now over a dozen meat processing facilities in the US shut down.
That is ok for the short term, but I was reading an article on Politico where they were talking to those in the meat supply chain and they mentioned that sometime in May once the current frozen stores start to be used up we could start to see some meat shortages in the US.

 

[A Love Supreme]

We need someone in the government to harass Americans based on their beliefs for....freedom?

As long as if that person is a conservative of course.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Uh oh.

 

[RamblinRed]

I had the opportunity to talk to my neighbor who is a nurse at lunchtime (his wife was at the hospital working in ICU today). Asked him how things are at work - they both work at the same large Atlanta hospital.
He says it hasn't slowed down at all, it has actually gotten worse. The hospital has converted every other floor into an ICU floor. They expect to see continued increase in cases for at least a few more weeks (that is without any re-opening). One issue with COVID patients is they are in the hospital for a long time. So it takes a really long time to start clearing out the demand. They expect it to be multiple months before the majority of COVID patients leave the hospital and it returns to any sort of normal level.

 

[A Love Supreme]

I had the opportunity to talk to my neighbor who is a nurse at lunchtime (his wife was at the hospital working in ICU today). Asked him how things are at work - they both work at the same large Atlanta hospital.
He says it hasn't slowed down at all, it has actually gotten worse. The hospital has converted every other floor into an ICU floor. They expect to see continued increase in cases for at least a few more weeks (that is without any re-opening). One issue with COVID patients is they are in the hospital for a long time. So it takes a really long time to start clearing out the demand. They expect it to be multiple months before the majority of COVID patients leave the hospital and it returns to any sort of normal level.

I apologize if this has been answered before but how long do COVID patients usually stay in the hospital before they are released?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I apologize if this has been answered before but how long do COVID patients usually stay in the hospital before they are released?

The only number I read was the average sick days until death was 20. (I dont even have a lot of faith that the 20 is accurate) But I have not heard on the average days to get better once you are in the hospital

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

I had the opportunity to talk to my neighbor who is a nurse at lunchtime (his wife was at the hospital working in ICU today). Asked him how things are at work - they both work at the same large Atlanta hospital.
He says it hasn't slowed down at all, it has actually gotten worse. The hospital has converted every other floor into an ICU floor. They expect to see continued increase in cases for at least a few more weeks (that is without any re-opening). One issue with COVID patients is they are in the hospital for a long time. So it takes a really long time to start clearing out the demand. They expect it to be multiple months before the majority of COVID patients leave the hospital and it returns to any sort of normal level.

My sister is an ICU nurse in Atlanta and has been telling me the same thing. Wouldn’t be surprised if she’s coworkers with your friends.

Re-opening the economy is important. No denying that. However, everyone I know that works in the medical field strongly believes it’s too early to talk about that.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

We need someone in the government to harass Americans based on their beliefs for....freedom?

No, we need someone in the government to hold others in the government accountable for their lies.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

My sister is an ICU nurse in Atlanta and has been telling me the same thing. Wouldn’t be surprised if she’s coworkers with your friends.

Re-opening the economy is important. No denying that. However, everyone I know that works in the medical field strongly believes it’s too early to talk about that.

In the big cities that is probably true. I live in a 1 million person metro area (so much smaller than ATL) and the hospitals are ghost towns. We have 5 total deaths ever.

 

[LibertyTurns]

In the big cities that is probably true. I live in a 1 million person metro area (so much smaller than ATL) and the hospitals are ghost towns. We have 5 total deaths ever.

We have a little under 200k and had 1 death until today when 3 nursing home deaths were attributed to C19: a 92 yo who was reportedly in very bad health along with a 87 yo & 75 yo of normal health for their ages.

Our hospital occupancy rate is around 40%, which is roughly 60% of the daily norm of 70%.

FYI- normal hospital occupancy rates in 2017 was 65.9% so if a hospital is jam packed full well that’s roughly 50% more than normal.

I looked up Grady and they average a 63.3% occupancy rate. If they’re full, that’s a massive increase.

 

[takethepoints]

You may have heard of the pres deciding to snd the Air Force and Navy airshow teams to do flyover shows in US cities. Here's the inspiration for that:



Unfortunately for us we don't have a tricolor flag to make it easier. Or Luciano Pavarotti to sing in the background. It's "Nessun Dorma" from Turandot, btw, Pavarotti's trademark. Nobody ever sang it better.

 

[MWBATL]

You may have heard of the pres deciding to snd the Air Force and Navy airshow teams to do flyover shows in US cities. Here's the inspiration for that:



Unfortunately for us we don't have a tricolor flag to make it easier. Or Luciano Pavarotti to sing in the background. It's "Nessun Dorma" from Turandot, btw, Pavarotti's trademark. Nobody ever sang it better.

Love it! Have always loved Nessun Dorma and love hearing Pavarotti sing it. And it is SO appropriate, as its finale flourish ("vincero") tranlates as "I will win" or "I will triumph"

 

[takethepoints]

LOL. We've had a growing economy (prior to the virus) for what, a decade? And inflation even using our bastardized figures has been > 2%. In the last 20 years, according to government statistics, Food has increased 60%, Healthcare costs have increased 97%, Housing costs have increased 60%, and goods and services have increased 70% (dentist, lawn care, barbers, etc. etc.). That's not deflation.

Here are Krugman's exact words on the need for the Fed to inflate the housing market, to create a bubble there in order to get out of the post dot-com/911 malaise:
https://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html

Read what Krugman says, then read the piece again. I attached the pdf, you know.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Read what Krugman says, then read the piece again. I attached the pdf, you know.

I read the PDF just to see what his excuse was. The more important piece is his original words, before the housing market collapse. Because he wasn't actually cheering or advocating for a housing market collapse. But he has for a long time advocated for inflating various asset bubbles. He's a keynesian economist at heart, and doesn't believe debt is ever a problem. Just like every answer from McCain's was 'war' to every question, every answer to every question for Krugman is to deficit spend. If you look at our country's financials, we're spending well over $500 Billion a year just to cover the interest on the debt. How a guy who claims to be an economist doesn't know about crowding out or the effect of $500B+ in interest payments tells you all you need to know. The guy is extremely smart, but unfortunately he lets his politics pollute his economics.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

No, we need someone in the government to hold others in the government accountable for their lies.

Well that I can agree with.

 

[MWBATL]

This article, by a Stanford epidemiologist, is well written and expresses many of the issues and concerns that I think skeptics are raising. And, just to remind everyone, being skeptical is at the heart of good scientific process...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

In reference to trying to determine the actual mortality rate of the coronavirus, he had this to say:
“If that is the true rate,” he wrote, “locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”

and perhaps his most relevant quote for this thread to contemplate is:
The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus. But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper with his wife, Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis, an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford, that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story. The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7% of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8% in New York City.

“Compared to almost any other cause of disease that I can think of, it’s really sparing young people. I’m not saying that the lives of 80-year-olds do not have value—they do,” he says. “But there’s far, far, far more . . . young people who commit suicide.” If the panic and attendant disruption continue, he says, “we will see many young people committing suicide . . . just because we are spreading horror stories with Covid-19. There’s far, far more young people who get cancer and will not be treated, because again, they will not go to the hospital to get treated because of Covid-19. There’s far, far more people whose mental health will collapse.”

I remain concerned that those touting continued lockdown strategies do not take into account the costs, in other more subtle ways, of their strategies.

If we have a disease that raises the total death rate of our country by 2% in a year NET....is that a disaster we should avoid at all costs? What is the increase is only 1% NET? We have running counts of covid-19 deaths, but we have also had discussions on this thread about the uncertainty of the accuracy of those numbers. As the joke meme goes, "man shot in head 72 times dies of coronavirus". (That is actually the way he would be counted....)

I think we have to be careful about finding the balance with this virus between accurate health information, much of which has been published in this thread...and sensationalizing its effects or over-reacting to it. For example, I honestly do not know if shutting down our colleges in the Fall is a good idea or a bad idea yet. I would like to learn more about this virus and its affects.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This article, by a Stanford epidemiologist, is well written and expresses many of the issues and concerns that I think skeptics are raising. And, just to remind everyone, being skeptical is at the heart of good scientific process...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

In reference to trying to determine the actual mortality rate of the coronavirus, he had this to say:
“If that is the true rate,” he wrote, “locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”

and perhaps his most relevant quote for this thread to contemplate is:
The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus. But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper with his wife, Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis, an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford, that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story. The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7% of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8% in New York City.

“Compared to almost any other cause of disease that I can think of, it’s really sparing young people. I’m not saying that the lives of 80-year-olds do not have value—they do,” he says. “But there’s far, far, far more . . . young people who commit suicide.” If the panic and attendant disruption continue, he says, “we will see many young people committing suicide . . . just because we are spreading horror stories with Covid-19. There’s far, far more young people who get cancer and will not be treated, because again, they will not go to the hospital to get treated because of Covid-19. There’s far, far more people whose mental health will collapse.”

I remain concerned that those touting continued lockdown strategies do not take into account the costs, in other more subtle ways, of their strategies.

If we have a disease that raises the total death rate of our country by 2% in a year NET....is that a disaster we should avoid at all costs? What is the increase is only 1% NET? We have running counts of covid-19 deaths, but we have also had discussions on this thread about the uncertainty of the accuracy of those numbers. As the joke meme goes, "man shot in head 72 times dies of coronavirus". (That is actually the way he would be counted....)

I think we have to be careful about finding the balance with this virus between accurate health information, much of which has been published in this thread...and sensationalizing its effects or over-reacting to it. For example, I honestly do not know if shutting down our colleges in the Fall is a good idea or a bad idea yet. I would like to learn more about this virus and its affects.

That’s a well written article and your post is well written. My one point of soft disagreement is with the theoretical illustration, “If we have a disease that raises the total death rate of our country by 2% in a year NET....is that a disaster we should avoid at all costs?” I think we can work diligently to protect and defend the vulnerable people. The high high majority of the workforce are not those at risk from the virus. In other words, in non-hot areas (the vast majority of the country), we can carefully open things up, while all across the country protecting the vulnerable population.

 

[MWBATL]

That’s a well written article and your post is well written. My one point of soft disagreement is with the theoretical illustration, “If we have a disease that raises the total death rate of our country by 2% in a year NET....is that a disaster we should avoid at all costs?” I think we can work diligently to protect and defend the vulnerable people. The high high majority of the workforce are not those at risk from the virus. In other words, in non-hot areas (the vast majority of the country, we can carefully open up the country, while all across the country protecting the vulnerable population.

I concur. Would that mean, in your opinion, allowing colleges and schools to go back into "normal" session next Fall? Perhaps in certain areas? How would that work, I wonder...