Coronavirus Thread

[LibertyTurns]

Here’s a different take on the shutdown:

https://www.professorhinkley.com/blog/why-is-oregon-still-on-lock-down
https://www.professorhinkley.com/blog/oregons-stunning-covid-numbers

 

[MWBATL]

Unfortunately the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN-71) is a good microcosm with "“As of today, 94 percent of Theodore Roosevelt crew members have been tested for COVID-19, with 660 positive and 3,920 negative results,” according to Friday’s COVID-19 report from the service. “4,059 sailors have moved ashore.” I have been on that ship and many others. Social distancing is impossible in crews quarters. https://news.usni.org/2020/04/17/navy-cdc-to-study-covid-19-outbreak-on-carrier-theodore-roosevelt

Also MLB is doing large scale testing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/mlb-employees-to-participate-in-coronavirus-antibody-study-11586944803

We'll get more facts in the next few months. I have to keep reminding myself that the first cases were only 4 months ago.

There is a difference between an open system and a closed system like a cruise ship or aircraft carrier. But it does show the contagious nature of this bug....

 

[4shotB]

Agree. Mods?

Or is the Swarm Lounge the new politics section?

I saw your post and Supersize's as well. I don't want to speak for the other mods but, due to work issues, I spend at most 10% of the time on this site that I did prior to the recent events. I am not going to reiterate my position regarding this site and politics but self policing is apparently not working for some ( a few?) of the posters.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I saw your post and Supersize's as well. I don't want to speak for the other mods but, due to work issues, I spend at most 10% of the time on this site that I did prior to the recent events. I am not going to reiterate my position regarding this site and politics but self policing is apparently not working for some ( a few?) of the posters.

Thanks for what you do. I'm busier than usual with work too. Working in the Navy right now is crazy trying to get things done.

Others, please shape up.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

There is a difference between an open system and a closed system like a cruise ship or aircraft carrier. But it does show the contagious nature of this bug....

Actually, I was surprised at the low level of contagion - only 20% in a fairly closed system. It makes me question the accuracy of the tests, or consider that most people exposed to the virus and it doesn't replicate in them. I **think** the long period of incubation is due to this virus slowly and unstoppably building up in **some** people until the viral load affects overall system performance. I also **think** there is a DNA aspect to this along with preexisting conditions.

But rest assured from what I know, the Navy is NOT falsifying data. It is what it is.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

We’ve been shutdown over a month. And yet the trend continues to be back up in daily new cases. The current clash between staying shut and opening will be one our kids’ kids read and learn about in school one day.

I don't fully understand why, but if you look at Italy and Spain, it seems to track the same pattern. Is it because people try to stay in 2 or 3 days and then some go out and get infected? Creating these waves? Is it expanded testing? Is it adding in more probably cases? Is it the fact that maybe a lot of people are infected for much longer before showing symptoms? Do we have a lot of contagious people who never get sick? Probably a percentage of all of them. But looking into the future with Italy and Spain and other countries, The pattern is similar and very disappointing.

 

[bobongo]

Trump inflates a lot of things, but you tell me, if we didn't mitigate this far differently than we did in '09, what would the World look like now as we speak ?
Obama was late in declaring a National Emergency compared to Trump (and that virus started here and/or Mexico!). A health emergency declaration is < and different than a NE.
Under the same circumstances as today, Obama's actions or lack of in '09, give me no confidence he would have been more competent at all. We did not have an order of magnitude greater supply of critical health supplies, before or after Obama, or Clinton, or Bush.

Well, as you yourself pointed out, H1N1 is not in the same ballpark as COVID-19, and did not require the response required for COVID-19. H1N1 was little more than a regular flu. Apples and oranges. The response to H1N1 was adequate and reasonable.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/flawed-comparison-on-coronavirus-h1n1-emergency-timelines/

"The CDC began releasing antiviral drugs to treat the H1N1 flu on April 26, the same day of Obama’s public health emergency declaration, and two days later the FDA approved a new CDC test for the disease. By April 30, Obama formally requested $1.5 billion from Congress to address the outbreak (the Obama administration later asked for nearly $9 billion). And a vaccine was made available in about six months."

 

[GoldZ]

Wonder how quickly Obama's advisors could actually tell how benign H1N1 was at the time vs our advisors on our situation today with Covid. Fauci's comments in late January makes one wonder.
In other words, in each scenario, who knew what and when did they know it. Didn't experts along with politicians call for closing the border with Mexico and closing schools in '09? Without iron clad trustworthy data, I'm still in the.....we got lucky in '09, camp. This from an epidemiological viewpoint--not political--i.e. Hard to believe Obama would have shut everything down earlier this time than Trump based on the experts advice, and not whether one was a better leader than the other.
In the name of full disclosure, this post is from someone who rates each of these Presidents' leadership qualities pretty dang low on the totem pole.

 

[Wrecked]

We’ve been shutdown over a month. And yet the trend continues to be back up in daily new cases. The current clash between staying shut and opening will be one our kids’ kids read and learn about in school one day.

If they ever go back to school.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, I think I figured out why the daily new cases has some regular peaks and valleys. The weekends, and in particular Sundays there must not be as many tests taken and run.

 

[gtchem05]

Hello fellow swarmers!
I have a request. I wrote an opinion article on COVID-19 and what I think needs to happen at this point. I would love it if you would consider reading it and offering your thoughts and criticisms. I’m hoping it strikes a reasonable balance between what seems like a dichotomy of opinions on how the country should operate. Thank you!

Also, of note, I did not mention in this article some of the things I have posted previously about influenza death rates because I thought it would be beyond the scope of the article. I still stand by my previous posts on this issue, though.

(mod note: attachment deleted per poster's request, please see here for updated attachment.)

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Hello fellow swarmers!
I have a request. I wrote an opinion article on COVID-19 and what I think needs to happen at this point. I would love it if you would consider reading it and offering your thoughts and criticisms. I’m hoping it strikes a reasonable balance between what seems like a dichotomy of opinions on how the country should operate. Thank you!

Also, of note, I did not mention in this article some of the things I have posted previously about influenza death rates because I thought it would be beyond the scope of the article. I still stand by my previous posts on this issue, though.

Thanks for that. I thought it was well-written, informative, and objective in nature. I do have 3 questions/comments about it though:
1) The beginning of the post reads like it is the continuation of something written earlier. Is that the case?
2) You didn't address the possible, and currently unknown, lasting effects of even exposure to the virus.
3) You didn't address the usefulness of pneumonia shots, which, though they can't prevent sickness due to the virus, can apparently mitigate against its morphing into pneumonia, which, according to what I have read, is what actually kills the elderly patients. I had an annual visit with a pulmonary specialist last month and asked him about that. He said I was definitely better off by having gotten both the first and second (later and supposedly more effective version) pneumonia shots. It is my personal opinion (I am not a doctor) that everyone, and certainly those over the age or 50, should get that shot ASAP.

 

[gtchem05]

Thanks for that. I thought it was well-written, informative, and objective in nature. I do have 3 questions/comments about it though:
1) The beginning of the post reads like it is the continuation of something written earlier. Is that the case?
2) You didn't address the possible, and currently unknown, lasting effects of even exposure to the virus.
3) You didn't address the usefulness of pneumonia shots, which, though they can't prevent sickness due to the virus, can apparently mitigate against its morphing into pneumonia, which, according to what I have read, is what actually kills the elderly patients. I had an annual visit with a pulmonary specialist last month and asked him about that. He said I was definitely better off by having gotten both the first and second (later and supposedly more effective version) pneumonia shots. It is my personal opinion (I am not a doctor) that everyone, and certainly those over the age or 50, should get that shot ASAP.

Thanks for checking it out!
1) No, not a continuation of anything in particular just the ongoing COVID-19 discussion
2) I don’t think a lot is known right now about the long-term effects of SARS-CoV2 exposure, but most likely the effects are similar to other coronaviruses which are generally minimal save for the critically ill that may have had ventilator-associated lung damage or other sequelae of critical illness.
3)In general COVID-19 causes a viral pneumonia as its most harmful clinical manifestation. The pneumonia vaccines, Pneumovax and Prevnar 13, are designed to prevent a particular type of bacterial pneumonia called pneumococcal pneumonia. My understanding is that most severe illness from COVID-19 is still from the primary viral infection rather than a superimposed bacterial pneumonia. However, it does occur sometimes, particularly with influenza, that a bacterial pathogen takes the opportunity to cause pneumonia in a patient already infected with a viral illness. Basically, to answer your question, it makes sense to continue to follow current vaccination guidelines on pneumococcal infection, but I don’t think there needs to be any expanded criteria beyond what is already there.

Hopefully these answers makes sense. Please let me know if you have further questions on this.

 

[bobongo]

Hello fellow swarmers!
I have a request. I wrote an opinion article on COVID-19 and what I think needs to happen at this point. I would love it if you would consider reading it and offering your thoughts and criticisms. I’m hoping it strikes a reasonable balance between what seems like a dichotomy of opinions on how the country should operate. Thank you!

Also, of note, I did not mention in this article some of the things I have posted previously about influenza death rates because I thought it would be beyond the scope of the article. I still stand by my previous posts on this issue, though.

Thanks for the article.

Testing seems to be the key. For instance, there has been speculation as to what the death rate is. We can roughly decipher the real death rate by using testing as we would a poll. Test a reasonably sized sample of people with scientific randomness, like the science behind poll-taking, to determine how many are infected. Then we can determine not only the death rate but also the extent of whatever herd immunity we already have and the herd immunity we can expect in the future. This is essential because of the nature of symptomatic reaction to exposure, in particular the fact that so many are apparently being infected without showing any symptoms.

There is speculation as to what a second wave would look like. We can only get a handle on the answer to this with scientifically random testing.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Thanks for checking it out!
1) No, not a continuation of anything in particular just the ongoing COVID-19 discussion
2) I don’t think a lot is known right now about the long-term effects of SARS-CoV2 exposure, but most likely the effects are similar to other coronaviruses which are generally minimal save for the critically ill that may have had ventilator-associated lung damage or other sequelae of critical illness.
3)In general COVID-19 causes a viral pneumonia as its most harmful clinical manifestation. The pneumonia vaccines, Pneumovax and Prevnar 13, are designed to prevent a particular type of bacterial pneumonia called pneumococcal pneumonia. My understanding is that most severe illness from COVID-19 is still from the primary viral infection rather than a superimposed bacterial pneumonia. However, it does occur sometimes, particularly with influenza, that a bacterial pathogen takes the opportunity to cause pneumonia in a patient already infected with a viral illness. Basically, to answer your question, it makes sense to continue to follow current vaccination guidelines on pneumococcal infection, but I don’t think there needs to be any expanded criteria beyond what is already there.

Hopefully these answers makes sense. Please let me know if you have further questions on this.

Thanks. That's interesting about the different kind of pneumonia. The shots I and others got definitely can't hurt, even if they might not necessarily help.

 

[gtchem05]

Hello fellow swarmers!
I have a request. I wrote an opinion article on COVID-19 and what I think needs to happen at this point. I would love it if you would consider reading it and offering your thoughts and criticisms. I’m hoping it strikes a reasonable balance between what seems like a dichotomy of opinions on how the country should operate. Thank you!

Fixed a typo. Here’s an updated version.

 

[MWBATL]

Fixed a typo. Here’s an updated version.

Just read it. Love it. Makes sense.

I am very curious to see what others think.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Hello fellow swarmers!
I have a request. I wrote an opinion article on COVID-19 and what I think needs to happen at this point. I would love it if you would consider reading it and offering your thoughts and criticisms. I’m hoping it strikes a reasonable balance between what seems like a dichotomy of opinions on how the country should operate. Thank you!

Also, of note, I did not mention in this article some of the things I have posted previously about influenza death rates because I thought it would be beyond the scope of the article. I still stand by my previous posts on this issue, though.

Great job. It's good you care enough to do this. A few comments:

1. Herd immunity is related to the level of transmission as I understand it. For a R0 of 2.6, 62% needs to be immunized from this https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs200301/
2. Herd immunity only applies if an immunity is built up. If some or all of the herd doesn't build up an immunity, then the calculation needs to be modified for the non-performers (tic). Good stuff here that you probably know a lot more than is written here: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/
3. If the virus itself doesn't cause immunity including the antibodies not preventing the recurrence, then a vaccine is unlikely to ever be effective. I guess that the "reinfections" talked about in South Korea were likely just continuations with a false negative https://www.sciencealert.com/who-in...ered-covid-19-patients-testing-positive-again . There hasn't been enough time to really know if there is true "recovery" and immunity.
4. Dead nuts on about not having developed a SARS or MERS vaccine, we tried hard. But now we have better biotech and much more motivation. Hopefully we are successful.
5. You are probably right to be optimistic that we will find a drug to mitigate the consequences of the pneumonia symptoms; we are more motivated than we have been. But the need has been there for every flu season to take care of those symptoms and we don't have the silver bullet.
6. The problem with targeted exposure is "Some have suggested we just isolate the most vulnerable people: those over age 60, or with immune system, lung, or other problems. That would probably help but wouldn’t be simple. You’re still talking about a big part of the population, plus the younger caregivers who would come in contact with them, plus the caregivers’ families. That’s not sustainable for long, either."
7. I think you are optimistic about the .1% mortality rate averaged across the entire age population. But whether it's .1 0r 1% or 2%, that doesn't affect you discussion.
8. My small town in southern Virginia isn't really following the guidelines. Today at the grocery store about half the people had masks on. I won't get banned by going into their probable political persuasion. I don't mind them getting sick; I don't like the mindless collateral damage they may be causing.

Overall, I agree that we may have to go to the herd immunity idea for economic and political reasons. But I'd rather know that immunity is built up (not like AIDS where there is no immunity even after "recovery") and for how long, before we go there. I doubt that will happen in our country as people will lose patience. And for many, not making money is an existential threat while the virus is a low probability mortality occurrence. Fortunately, there are other countries ahead of us in this and we can see what happens there.

Again, thanks for sharing.

 

[awbuzz]

Fixed a typo. Here’s an updated version.

Makes sense even though we know that some of the low risk folks will get get sicker than anyone would want. Even if that would be me, we need to do something like this so that we don't totally ruin the country.

Not to be callus, we can't burn down the country and ruin 90+% of lives to save 10%. Note I am not advocating lining up high risk individuals and exposing them to the virus.

As @gtchem05 notes, keep high risk groups semi-sequestered and let others start to go back to work/school/etc.

 

[takethepoints]

I'm not sure I'm following. If you had figures on the entire population of interest, there would be nothing to extrapolate?

Yes. The whole point of statistical manipulation is to try to get to precise estimations of error in estimations of parameters. If you have a universe of data, then there's no point in trying to sample; you already have the actual parameters, at least for the population of interest. That's why the new databases that cover entire populations are so important.

Now, of course, this is a sub-set of available data. There are a lot of questions that could benefit from a random sample for estimation purposes. However, this is not as necessary as it once was. Big Data really is that; for many questions I think (and I'm not the only one) that we are close to getting the data to estimate parameters accurately.

That doesn't mean we won't need sophisticated sampling schemes for many others, however. It'll depend on what we are collecting. And, of course, this only applies to countries with good national statistical services.