Coronavirus Thread

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More debate on Sweden. I find this stuff fascinating. While on a bike ride with my wife a couple days ago, I was stating how I just don’t understand the math - because almost every country looks the same. The chart says our peak in deaths in South Carolina won’t be until early May. We’ve been locked down and staying home now for what - like 3 weeks? How is the death peak 7-8 weeks later? How is what we’re doing right now not dramatically different for virus transmission than when were all working and traveling and eating out and so on?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/06/1586186884000/Poland-vs-Sweden/
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
More debate on Sweden. I find this stuff fascinating. While on a bike ride with my wife a couple days ago, I was stating how I just don’t understand the math - because almost every country looks the same. The chart says our peak in deaths in South Carolina won’t be until early May. We’ve been locked down and staying home now for what - like 3 weeks? How is the death peak 7-8 weeks later? How is what we’re doing right now not dramatically different for virus transmission than when were all working and traveling and eating out and so on?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/06/1586186884000/Poland-vs-Sweden/
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These guys have SC peaking in about 2.5 weeks. They made a big 'update' to their models a couple of days ago and quite a few states peak moved to the left several weeks. http://www.healthdata.org/covid

One thing about this data (still)... it seems to me they are still over-estimating the number of folks to be hospitalized... at least that is true in Virginia and was in NY last I checked. For example (currently), Virginia is reporting 500 people hospitalized. This model says on 4/6 that 1050 beds will be needed with a 'range' (600-1730). Maybe I'm missing something.
 
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bwelbo said:
On NBC News this morning, they sadly ran fake news again, stating South Carolina has no stay at home order. I live here - we’ve had it for weeks. And in fact yesterday the Governor at the daily press conference was concerned with non-compliance, so now there is jail time and fines for not staying home. I can’t figure out what the news peoples issue is here. They also listed Nebraska and Iowa on there as having no order, but our health experts specifically have said those states do have orders. I can’t get what the news is after here.
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According to a SC news station, the SC order goes into effect today at 5:00PM, so it isn't in effect yet. The governor didn't announce it until yesterday, so there has not been an official one there for weeks. Fauci said that Nebraska and Iowa have policies that accomplish similar social distancing even without an official "shelter in place" or "stay at home" order, not that they do have such orders. I haven't seen a single news report that actually looked to see what was happening in states without orders. I guess it is much easier to use a check list -- yes/no -- than to do actual investigative journalism and find out what is actually happening. SC's order is a "Home or Work" order, so we will have to see what the news organizations do with that.

https://abcnews4.com/news/coronavirus/gov-mcmaster-orders-stay-at-home-order-for-south-carolina
 

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RonJohn said:
According to a SC news station, the SC order goes into effect today at 5:00PM, so it isn't in effect yet. The governor didn't announce it until yesterday, so there has not been an official one there for weeks. Fauci said that Nebraska and Iowa have policies that accomplish similar social distancing even without an official "shelter in place" or "stay at home" order, not that they do have such orders. I haven't seen a single news report that actually looked to see what was happening in states without orders. I guess it is much easier to use a check list -- yes/no -- than to do actual investigative journalism and find out what is actually happening. SC's order is a "Home or Work" order, so we will have to see what the news organizations do with that.

https://abcnews4.com/news/coronavirus/gov-mcmaster-orders-stay-at-home-order-for-south-carolina
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So weird. I live here, and I can tell you that we’ve been shut down with orders to stay home for quite a long time. The only thing in the latest order that takes affect soon is the addition of a criminal penalty of jail time or a fine. At the press conference yesterday, they spent a good bit of time discussing it. The governor reiterated that they have been telling us to stay home for a long time. They have accumulated enough evidence of noncompliance (traffic info from the DOT, etc) (For example, they pulled over 2500 boats on the water last weekend.) that they wanted to institute more stiff criminal penalties. He said if this doesn’t change behavior, they will ramp up the enforcement even further.
 

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Was reading a long article with Coroners from across the country. They believe the true number of deaths is being significantly undercounted, especially in states with more limited testing.

A number of the coroners mentioned they can't get tests to confirm whether a person died of COVID19 (understandably) because the states are rationing the use of tests to those still alive.
Most of the coroners said they would not list COVID19 as a cause of death unless they can run the test because it is not their job to guess, it is their job to report accurately.

Different states are taking different tacks with coroners so we just lack consistentcy as usual in reporting.

Also, in case anyone is interested, the Univ of Washington model has been updated so that you can look at projected deaths for 29 countries besides the US and for Germany, Italy and Spain you can look at the data by region.

GA had a very negative spike yesterday. The estimate for yesterday was 49, the actual was 75.
 

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FredJacket said:
These guys have SC peaking in about 2.5 weeks. They made a big 'update' to their models a couple of days ago and quite a few states peak moved to the left several weeks. http://www.healthdata.org/covid

One thing about this data (still)... it seems to me they are still over-estimating the number of folks to be hospitalized... at least that is true in Virginia and was in NY last I checked. For example (currently), Virginia is reporting 500 people hospitalized. This model says on 4/6 that 1050 beds will be needed with a 'range' (600-1730). Maybe I'm missing something.
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interesting, thanks for sharing. I flipped through to New York, and the current model suggests a peek of 5,500 ventilators. I’m glad we didn’t send them all 20,000 of our emergency stockpile ventilators when Cuomo requested it a few weeks ago.
 

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RamblinRed said:
Was reading a long article with Coroners from across the country. They believe the true number of deaths is being significantly undercounted, especially in states with more limited testing.

A number of the coroners mentioned they can't get tests to confirm whether a person died of COVID19 (understandably) because the states are rationing the use of tests to those still alive.
Most of the coroners said they would not list COVID19 as a cause of death unless they can run the test because it is not their job to guess, it is their job to report accurately.

Different states are taking different tacks with coroners so we just lack consistentcy as usual in reporting.

Also, in case anyone is interested, the Univ of Washington model has been updated so that you can look at projected deaths for 29 countries besides the US and for Germany, Italy and Spain you can look at the data by region.

GA had a very negative spike yesterday. The estimate for yesterday was 49, the actual was 75.
Click to expand...

Interesting comment – thanks for sharing. I was just remembering the studies they did down in Puerto Rico to estimate the true deaths from the aftermath of the hurricane by comparing to what their normal deaths would’ve been. I am sure there will be a lot of discussion on that in the future here too.
 
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RamblinRed said:
GA had a very negative spike yesterday. The estimate for yesterday was 49, the actual was 75.
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That 75 was still well within the uncertainty of the model, which was 15-118. The model shows 15-155 for today. I am not sure how accurate the min/max numbers are, but don't concentrate on the predicted number. If the numbers go outside of the predicted uncertainty, then we will know that the model isn't accurate.
 

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Interesting flame of the airlines. Asking for $50B bailout without any equity component, despite the fact they've spent $45B in recent years buying their own stock.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/bu...s-want-a-50-billion-bailout-They-15182769.php

I'm sure you could find tons of money they've mis-spent in other ways too. The point here is we have bankruptcy laws for a reason - they can keep operating during a bankruptcy. It doesn't mean they will cease operations and won't be back to normal operations in a year. But why should the taxpayers finance that in a bailout? The bondholders and shareholders should effectively finance that through a restructuring. I'm not sure why all those people who invested in the company should be allowed to retain their investment by the reward of my wallet. If they really are a critical industry and part of our homeland security portfolio, then they ought to act like it during normal operations too.
 
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bwelbo said:
I used to make fun of weather forecasters. I think I've found my new target. Anybody whose range can enable them to be wrong by a factor of 10x and still be 'right' makes me chuckle.
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I look at that differently. It is basically math. They build a model. Different parts of the model have different uncertainty. They could just provide the actual prediction and say that is it. Instead, they calculate the overall uncertainty based on what they know they don't know. They then provide that as context to the prediction. The prediction for today is 52, with an uncertainty range from 15-155. If the number is between 15 and 155, then it is still tracking within the known uncertainty of the model, which means that the future predictions of the model can still be accurate.

No model is going to be 100% accurate. Providing the uncertainty range actually helps me understand the model. It doesn't provide concrete answers, which many people are looking for, but there are no concrete answers about what will happen in the future.
 

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TampaGT said:
I’m in the healthcare field, so I’m working just as normal and not quarantined. But thanks for letting me know your “cult”
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I’m in the healthcare field too and stand by my comments that you post is way more optimistic than the evidence warrants in terms of treatment. But to suggest it’s anything like a seasonal flu is just wrong.
 
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Coronavirus and people who reply-in Coronavirus are also deemed to Coronavirus have broken the rules Coronavirus, so make sure Coronavirus you mix in ample on topic Coronavirus information to your post Coronavirus.
 
LibertyTurns

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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
I hope this is not considered political, because it is factual information on Governor Cuomo of NY. He could have avoided, or at least minimized the crisis in NY if he had heeded the warnings of NY Health Officials in 2015: https://www.independentsentinel.com...al-preventive-steps-in-nys-pandemic-planning/
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There’s a whole lot of people that could have done a lot of things different 10 yrs ago, 5 years ago, last year, last month, etc. Just need to fix the real reasons why they didn’t instead of doing what we always do. Nothing much really.
 
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