Coronavirus Thread

[kg01]

There’s a whole lot of people that could have done a lot of things different 10 yrs ago, 5 years ago, last year, last month, etc. Just need to fix the real reasons why they didn’t instead of doing what we always do. Nothing much really.

Preach, Lib.

And to appease @bwelbo .... Coronavirus coronavirus coronavirus

 

[GT_EE78]

> here's another way to look at acceleration/deceleration
> I wish he had also done this for new cases
> there's no way to know if the others are decelerating ahead of US because they are ahead time-wise or because they have much more widespread usage of hydroxychloroquin.
.
Daily percentage of new Corona virus deaths to previous day's total by country.
25% = total deaths double every 3 days, 20% = every 4 days, 15% = every 5 days, 10% = about 1 week, 5% = about 2 weeks

 

[LibertyTurns]

Preach, Lib.

And to appease @bwelbo .... Coronavirus coronavirus coronavirus

This is a tough, tough issue because you can’t stockpile vaccines because you don’t know what the disease is. It’s like home insurance- do you pay for an armed guard at your property line 24 hrs a day to ward off robbers, put up a fence and electronic surveillance, bars over the windows, buy a mean dog or just lock your door; do you need a better roof or one that just barely meets code, do you buy basic flood insurance or one that replaces your house plus gives you $$ to live if it’s destroyed, etc. Reality is you need ZERO of this inconvenience or expense unless a calamity happens to you and then you wish you’d have listened to your builder, your insurance man, etc instead of only what you thought you could get away with. If you can only afford one, which one do you choose and why, then how do you defend your decision when you skip flood insurance and a 100 yr storm wipes your home off the face of the earth? Decisions, decisions, decisions and the only person that can ever be wrong is the decision maker! Plus nobody cares when he’s right!!!

 

[RamblinRed]

No countries numbers are going down due to widespread hydroxychloroquine use because no country is using it widely. it is only being used in very small test cases.
The original test paper in France has been disavowed by the society that initially published it because the author had a past history of manipulating data and the society said the research did not meet the expected standard for how and why patients were selected. (my opinion on that having seen that before is that the researcher was likely selecting his patients knowing which ones were most likely to recover to maximize what looked like positive results - but were basically fake. Seen similar attempts taken in Autism research).

A recent small scale Chinese study showed no positive effects.

The original paper in the US was created by 2 cryptocurrency investors who added claims that Stanford, Univ of AL and the National Academy of Sciences were involved - which none were. The third researcher listed on the paper was also not involved. it was uploaded to Goggle Docs on March 13th. Google has since taken it down saying that it violated its terms of service.

There are now multiple studies underway to see if there is any positive effect, but they are just getting underway. Keep in mind that other drugs are also in early testing phases, so if we are lucky at least one of these drugs will eventually be useful. But realistically we are months away from any sort of medicinal therapy. But if they can find one that works - even if it is just one that helps reduce the length and severity that will make a big difference for future waves.

Numbers that are dropping are due to mitigation measures, not medicine. FWIW, that is an excellent chart 78.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, GA posted 35 more deaths at noon today. So that is 100 combined in their last 2 reports. That is a really large spike over what the were reporting and more toward the upper end of the confidence interval in the Washington Model.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No countries numbers are going down due to widespread hydroxychloroquine use because no country is using it widely. it is only being used in very small test cases.
The original test paper in France has been disavowed by the society that initially published it because the author had a past history of manipulating data and the society said the research did not meet the expected standard for how and why patients were selected. (my opinion on that having seen that before is that the researcher was likely selecting his patients knowing which ones were most likely to recover to maximize what looked like positive results - but were basically fake. Seen similar attempts taken in Autism research).

A recent small scale Chinese study showed no positive effects.

The original paper in the US was created by 2 cryptocurrency investors who added claims that Stanford, Univ of AL and the National Academy of Sciences were involved - which none were. The third researcher listed on the paper was also not involved. it was uploaded to Goggle Docs on March 13th. Google has since taken it down saying that it violated its terms of service.

There are now multiple studies underway to see if there is any positive effect, but they are just getting underway. Keep in mind that other drugs are also in early testing phases, so if we are lucky at least one of these drugs will eventually be useful. But realistically we are months away from any sort of medicinal therapy. But if they can find one that works - even if it is just one that helps reduce the length and severity that will make a big difference for future waves.

Numbers that are dropping are due to mitigation measures, not medicine. FWIW, that is an excellent chart 78.

How the hell and why the he’ll did the FDA agree to clinical trials if everything done so far was basically faked.

 

[RonJohn]

How the hell and why the he’ll did the FDA agree to clinical trials if everything done so far was basically faked.

Because there are papers that indicate that there is enough evidence to begin clinical trials. Clinical trials are what determine if a medicine is actually effective or not. Starting a clinical trial doesn't mean that a medicine does indeed work. It means that scientists want to determine if it does or does not work.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Because there are papers that indicate that there is enough evidence to begin clinical trials. Clinical trials are what determine if a medicine is actually effective or not. Starting a clinical trial doesn't mean that a medicine does indeed work. It means that scientists want to determine if it does or does not work.

I thought I just read those papers were essentially faked. I’m probably missing something.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

No countries numbers are going down due to widespread hydroxychloroquine use because no country is using it widely. it is only being used in very small test cases.
The original test paper in France has been disavowed by the society that initially published it because the author had a past history of manipulating data and the society said the research did not meet the expected standard for how and why patients were selected. (my opinion on that having seen that before is that the researcher was likely selecting his patients knowing which ones were most likely to recover to maximize what looked like positive results - but were basically fake. Seen similar attempts taken in Autism research).

A recent small scale Chinese study showed no positive effects.

The original paper in the US was created by 2 cryptocurrency investors who added claims that Stanford, Univ of AL and the National Academy of Sciences were involved - which none were. The third researcher listed on the paper was also not involved. it was uploaded to Goggle Docs on March 13th. Google has since taken it down saying that it violated its terms of service.

There are now multiple studies underway to see if there is any positive effect, but they are just getting underway. Keep in mind that other drugs are also in early testing phases, so if we are lucky at least one of these drugs will eventually be useful. But realistically we are months away from any sort of medicinal therapy. But if they can find one that works - even if it is just one that helps reduce the length and severity that will make a big difference for future waves.

Numbers that are dropping are due to mitigation measures, not medicine. FWIW, that is an excellent chart 78.

I have no idea if it's true or not, but I heard last night that they are actually making the medication themselves in hospitals in Belgium. That would seem to say that it is very effective there. I also saw an interview with a democrat congresswoman from Michigan who has survived the virus, giving credit to hydorcholiquine for providing that "cure," in spite of the Michigan governor's earlier ban on it. She said that she had taken it in the past for apparent help with her ongoing battle with lyme disease. Obviously, both these instances are all anecdotal in nature, and a compete clinical study is demanded, but anecdotes do add up.

 

[MWBATL]

Sounds to me like we have a bunch of anecdotal evidence about hydroxychloroquine, both pro and con, and virtually no real data yet.

But enough anecdotal stuff to test further, which is what the FDA has authorized....

 

[MWBATL]

I am definitely getting the impression we are turning the curve. I think we will see the models projected death totals slide slowly onwards for the next few weeks (nationwide, not necessarily in GA)....

I think the really tricky part is going to be this...if we get a solid two weeks of downturn, where cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are all on the decline, then the pressure to open things back up will ratchet up quickly and strongly. I would like to understand what the plan might be to do that, in a way that is reasonable yet somewhat safe. (NB-I used the word "somewhat" because there is no such thing as perfect safety...it is all going to be a balancing act between risk of infection and risk of depression economically).

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am definitely getting the impression we are turning the curve. I think we will see the models projected death totals slide slowly onwards for the next few weeks (nationwide, not necessarily in GA)....

I think the really tricky part is going to be this...if we get a solid two weeks of downturn, where cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are all on the decline, then the pressure to open things back up will ratchet up quickly and strongly. I would like to understand what the plan might be to do that, in a way that is reasonable yet somewhat safe. (NB-I used the word "somewhat" because there is no such thing as perfect safety...it is all going to be a balancing act between risk of infection and risk of depression economically).

Exactly. We can't just all go back to normal, because we'll have another outbreak again. Now do you go halfway? I don't even see how they do that, because the virus has proven incredibly contagious. It spreads to animals, its airborne, it lives on surfaces for days. It (a flattened curve) will be a good problem to have, but I'll be interested to see what they do next.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Exactly. We can't just all go back to normal, because we'll have another outbreak again. Now do you go halfway? I don't even see how they do that, because the virus has proven incredibly contagious. It spreads to animals, its airborne, it lives on surfaces for days. It (a flattened curve) will be a good problem to have, but I'll be interested to see what they do next.

We have been going over a couple of plans on how I could bring my factory back online as well as my engineering teams and sales and marketing. (Sales & marketing has probably been ok all along for the most part)
We are looking at small group isolation or pods. I can compartmentalize my factory to pods of 6 people who don't interact with each other with a small cleaning crew to go behind and clean after each break and stagger breaks and lunch as well as create a couple of larger break zones to reduce cross contamination. Each Pod would work as a group to understand how well each person's home life is isolated. High risk people for breaking the pod isolation would probably be forced to stay home. Just one thought for our first step to going back to work.

 

[RonJohn]

I thought I just read those papers were essentially faked. I’m probably missing something.

There are other studies and proposals to the NIH suggesting clinical trials of hydroxychloriquine for COVID-19. There have been several less reported limited studies, some of which show promise, and some of which do not. There are many medicines being tested. If hydroxichloriquine turns out to be effective, that is a great thing. Study it and find out. If it does not, but any of the other medicines do, that is a great thing. Study them and find out. The problem I have is relying on something that the studies are ambiguous about.

I haven't read that the Raoult study was faked, but there are some pretty big concerns about it's scientific legitimacy.

The other paper however: Was written by a guy who claimed to be an adviser to the Stanford School of Medicine, although the Stanford School of Medicine says that he isn't. They included a professor from the University of Alabama as a third co-writer. That professor claimed that he had no knowledge of, did not participate in, and did not agree with the paper. That author has no medical education or background. That paper was touted and tweeted by some people. The author was on 24 hour news stations touting the effectiveness of hydroxychloriquine and touted as an adviser to Stanford. That paper was the beginning of the mania over hydroxychloriquine, and it was indeed a fraudulent paper written by people with no medical background.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I am definitely getting the impression we are turning the curve. I think we will see the models projected death totals slide slowly onwards for the next few weeks (nationwide, not necessarily in GA)....

I think the really tricky part is going to be this...if we get a solid two weeks of downturn, where cases, deaths, and hospitalizations are all on the decline, then the pressure to open things back up will ratchet up quickly and strongly. I would like to understand what the plan might be to do that, in a way that is reasonable yet somewhat safe. (NB-I used the word "somewhat" because there is no such thing as perfect safety...it is all going to be a balancing act between risk of infection and risk of depression economically).

I heard last night that already the projected death rate has slid to under 80k

 

[RonJohn]

I heard last night that already the projected death rate has slid to under 80k

49,431 to 136,401 according to the projection.

EDIT:Model instead of projection.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, since we are talking about how to re-open things, this is actually a good article on just that topic

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/business/germany-coronavirus-economy/index.html

It lays out how Germany is starting to approach the issue. It also talks about looking at China.
in the end the basic assumption is it has to be done very carefully and slowly.
Dr. Fauci is even quoted in it saying we can't stay locked down forever, that there is a balance that has to be achieved.
The key is obviously finding the right balance.

The early German work suggests certain industries will be prioritized over others. Anything that can largely be done from home should continue to be done from home.
It also suggest careful re-opening of restaurants and hotels - not just allowing all of them to open back up. It does suggest keeping clubs closed and no large scale events (conventions, sporting events, etc.).

it also mentions how important testing will be. It is crucial to have rapid, extensive testing so you can get ahead of an outbreak and do the contact tracing before it can spin out of control and be reactive like we have where you then have to take much more serious measures.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

@RamblinRed It sounds like we probably should not reopen too much until we have significantly scaled testing and have proper testing locations throughout US, otherwise we wont be able to get in-front of new outbreaks.

 

[RamblinRed]

As mentioned by another poster the French study has been disavowed by the Scientific Society that originally published the paper. The author has a history of manipulating data and they said the how and why behind the selection of patients did not meet their standards. (my take on that - the author picked patients he already knew what the outcome was going to be and gave them the drug and then said it worked)

Also, the original paper published in the US in mid-March is a fake. It was written by 2 cryptocurrency investors who wrote the paper and then claimed they had worked with Stanford University of Medicine (one claimed to be a consultant with Stanford which Stanford said is false), the University of Alabama (where a third researcher whose name they used without telling him is from) and the National Academy of Sciences were working with them. Neither of the writers is a medical professional and the paper has been pulled.

There was a small Chinese study that showed no positive effects. There have been one or two other small studies suggested that have been more positive.
So we are in a place where Hydroxychloroquine is one of a number of therapies that they are starting small scale, controlled tests on. Once those are completed then whichever therapies show the most promise would be subjected to large scale trials and then if they go well you could move into production.
But all that is months off, even with expedited trials.
Still need to pound away on the social distancing measures. They are slowly helping but we haven't gotten to the peak yet, so we are still on the front end of this rather than the back end.

 

[gtchem05]

Exactly. We can't just all go back to normal, because we'll have another outbreak again. Now do you go halfway? I don't even see how they do that, because the virus has proven incredibly contagious. It spreads to animals, its airborne, it lives on surfaces for days. It (a flattened curve) will be a good problem to have, but I'll be interested to see what they do next.

The biggest reason COVID-19 is so contagious now is that no one's immune system had ever seen it before last fall. The more people that develop antibodies and t-cells that respond to it, the less contagious it will become. You may have heard of a number called R naught (Ro) as a factor that describes a pathogen's level of contagiousness. By social distancing we can temporally decrease the Ro of a given pathogen (see attached figure from the CDC with the colored curves). The higher the Ro, the higher percentage of people need to be immune on order to achieve what is considered herd immunity. Herd immunity being defined as the minimum number needed to be immune to a disease in order for the disease not to transmit efficiently in a population. The Ro for COVID-19 is thought to be around 2.6 which means upwards of 60% of the population need to be immune in order to have herd immunity. For comparison, the Ro for measles is in the range of 12-18 which means 92-95% need immunity to establish herd immunity. Thank goodness for the MMR vaccine! Polio is not too different with an Ro of 5-7. Influenza's Ro is 1.5-1.8, but it mutates seasonally which really hampers our immune system's ability to fight it on repeat exposure and also makes vaccination really difficult.

The main way we beat COVID-19 is by getting to herd immunity as quickly as possible. Could we do it with a vaccine? Possibly, hopefully, but long-term immunity to coronaviruses is not something our immune systems have been shown to be very capable of. The other way we achieve immunity will probably happen no matter what we do and that's by COVID-19 becoming endemic. As this happens, a significant percentage of people (maybe 0.1 - 1%) whose immune systems have never seen the virus will unfortunately die as we are so devastatingly experiencing now. But once the virus is endemic it will continue to circulate, and the remaining immune systems will get a refresher course on how to kill it every few years. I don't know if it will exactly end up going the way of its other endemic coronavirus predecessors, it might always be the most virulent of the bunch, but it will by no means remain as contagious and deadly as it is now.