Coronavirus Thread

[Skeptic]

He didn’t say the virus was a hoax.

The virus WILL pass.

You still can’t list anything you or anybody else (including the CDC and NIH) were advocating for along the way that he didn’t try and take action on.

NOBODY...NOBODY. Not you, not the CDC, not the NIH...NOBODY was advocating to shut the country down 3 weeks ago. When asked for anything like that, they said we weren’t there yet.

Your criticisms are irrational.

Yet even as recently as Sunday he claims it is "under control" and he and his supporters did, without question, deny its seriousness and claim it was politically motivated by their usual suspects, Democrats and the 'liberal media", a creature I have yet to discover.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yet even as recently as Sunday he claims it is "under control" and he and his supporters did, without question, deny its seriousness and claim it was politically motivated by their usual suspects, Democrats and the 'liberal media", a creature I have yet to discover.

If Trump said tomorrow the virus itself was a hoax, he would be even more of an idiot than he is today, which is still great and unmatched. But, that wouldn't change any facts on the ground for what the CDC, NIH, and state health experts have recommended and instituted. There are lots of interviews from weeks ago with these experts on the Sunday shows being asked about shut downs and what-not and they said we're not there yet. We can all be sure they also probably think Trump is an idiot and nothing that they do or don't do depends on anything he says. The notion that any of this is Trump's fault and he should have done something weeks ago when nobody on here and none of these experts advocated for it is just political hatred. Trump being an idiot is Trump's fault.

 

[GT_EE78]

I just hit the numbers website again. I am beginning to think China way way under reported their numbers. Like way. Ital reported 3,000 new cases JUST TODAY. Across Europe it’s everywhere. Even small countries. Norway has 1,200 (that’s 80,000 per capita here). Iceland’s per capita positives is 95,000. Damn.

Would Chinese communists lie about their Wuhan virus?
Chinese Tycoon Who Criticized Xi’s Response to Coronavirus Has Vanished
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/14/chinese-tycoon-who-criticized-xis-response-to-coronavirus-has-vanished/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

 

[Deleted member 2897]

 

[flounder]

Can someone kindly explain how a question at the debate last night mentioned the possibility that “millions” of Americans could die from Coronavirus. That struck me as outrageously irresponsible.
Remind me again how many died in China? Isn’t that the absolute best data for what is likely here in the US?

They probably got it from this article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

The CDC has said that the worst case model is probably unrealistic as it doesn't include the effects of measures taken to stop the spread.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Read through this doctor's thread:

Looking at his chart vs the actual numbers and comparing it to the population density says he has no idea what he is talking about.

On 3/15 we had 3750 cases and they had about 3958 on 03/05 (Hard to read the exact number ) Seems close. But with our population being about 6X larger than Italy, that would put us around March 8th to accurately compare Not the 15th. So that puts us 17 days behind them, not 10. Which also means we are enacting measures fare sooner and more aggressively than they did.

Fortunately we enacted travel bans far early than other countries, even though our leaders were initially mocked for that. But that has bought us the extra time to see how other countries are handling things and try to learn from their mistakes. Hopefully we can follow Korea instead of Italy.

For those who will say the infection rate is false, then compare deaths. We have had something like 60 deaths. That would compare to about 10 deaths in Italy by the population adjustment. You would have to go back to Feb 10th to find that number. Which says we are closer to 4 weeks behind Italy. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I am disappointed in you guys who post this stuff without validation. I would expect the drooling masses to see this kind of crap and believe it, but we are engineers and should know better.
We are probably 3-4 weeks behind them and we have time to react and we are already reacting far ahead of when they did. Math can be your friend if you let it.

 

[flounder]

Which also means we are enacting measures fare sooner and more aggressively than they did.

This is true and gives me hope we can avoid the worst of it. It all depends on compliance with the measures though, which seems spotty.

 

[WreckinGT]

Looking at his chart vs the actual numbers and comparing it to the population density says he has no idea what he is talking about.

On 3/15 we had 3750 cases and they had about 3958 on 03/05 (Hard to read the exact number ) Seems close. But with our population being about 6X larger than Italy, that would put us around March 8th to accurately compare Not the 15th. So that puts us 17 days behind them, not 10. Which also means we are enacting measures fare sooner and more aggressively than they did.

Fortunately we enacted travel bans far early than other countries, even though our leaders were initially mocked for that. But that has bought us the extra time to see how other countries are handling things and try to learn from their mistakes. Hopefully we can follow Korea instead of Italy.

For those who will say the infection rate is false, then compare deaths. We have had something like 60 deaths. That would compare to about 10 deaths in Italy by the population adjustment. You would have to go back to Feb 10th to find that number. Which says we are closer to 4 weeks behind Italy. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I am disappointed in you guys who post this stuff without validation. I would expect the drooling masses to see this kind of crap and believe it, but we are engineers and should know better.
We are probably 3-4 weeks behind them and we have time to react and we are already reacting far ahead of when they did. Math can be your friend if you let it.

Or us engineers can see what he was trying to do there and take it for what it is worth. He wasn't trying to do the detailed analysis that you seem to be yearning for. Being the great engineer that you are who is highly above the drooling masses in intelligence, we would all love to see some detailed numbers that also compare testing rates, travel patterns, pocket densities, weather patterns, demographics, health care availability, and the other thousands of potential variables that may impact public numbers. Can you do that analysis for us?

 

[Skeptic]

... Trump being an idiot is Trump's fault.

Not according to him.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Italy is at almost 2,000 deaths now (that would be like having 12,000 dead over here). Their mortality rate is 6%, ~66x higher than the Flu. What a disaster zone. I can't imagine what life is like there right now.

 

[Techster]

Or us engineers can see what he was trying to do there and take it for what it is worth. He wasn't trying to do the detailed analysis that you seem to be yearning for. Being the great engineer that you are who is highly above the drooling masses in intelligence, we would all love to see some detailed numbers that also compare testing rates, travel patterns, pocket densities, weather patterns, demographics, health care availability, and the other thousands of potential variables that may impact public numbers. Can you do that analysis for us?

Man, the scary thing is EXACTLY what the reply pointed out but some seem to overlook about that graph: our population being about 6X larger than Italy

Let's remember tests are still not widely available, and as one poster who posted their first hand experience said, it's only available to a narrow set of people who have traveled to infected areas recently. Anyone who thinks that graph isn't an "accurate" representation of what's going on in the United States, don't worry...the US will decouple from that pattern soon once tests are available. Italy and Germany didn't take it seriously at this same point either, and now both countries are on lockdown.

That 6X will come into play soon.

 

[RonJohn]

Or us engineers can see what he was trying to do there and take it for what it is worth. He wasn't trying to do the detailed analysis that you seem to be yearning for. Being the great engineer that you are who is highly above the drooling masses in intelligence, we would all love to see some detailed numbers that also compare testing rates, travel patterns, pocket densities, weather patterns, demographics, health care availability, and the other thousands of potential variables that may impact public numbers. Can you do that analysis for us?

Nobody has the numbers to do that analysis. Many of the numbers that are being posted at the moment are people who want to say either: It isn't a big deal, or The world is ending. It is pretty easy to find numbers that match either of those statements.

People should look at the numbers with an understanding that there are absolutely no numbers at the moment that tell the whole story. Any twitter post with one graph or one statistic and 140 characters cannot possible say what is happening. Things could get extremely bad with millions dying. Things could wind down with only a few thousand people dying. At the moment not one person on earth knows. People should take precautions, but not panic.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

This is true and gives me hope we can avoid the worst of it. It all depends on compliance with the measures though, which seems spotty.

Yep, it is only as good as the population abides by it. When they closed school early, the parents and kids took advantage of it to go to skate parks and other higher population density areas.
Yes its going to get bad and we are going to end up with a lot more cases Hopefully with the extra time we have and the correct behaviour can be beaten into enough people's head to turn this into Korea instead of Italy.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yep, it is only as good as the population abides by it. When they closed school early, the parents and kids took advantage of it to go to skate parks and other higher population density areas.
Yes its going to get bad and we are going to end up with a lot more cases Hopefully with the extra time we have and the correct behaviour can be beaten into enough people's head to turn this into Korea instead of Italy.

You know, South Korea isn't actually the beacon of hope and good health. They have the 5th most cases in the world. Per capita, their number would be equivalent to over 50,000 here. They are adding like 1-200 per day (equivalent to about 1,000 per day here). I think they're doing a better job than most, but its not easy living there right now. Not that you were saying that, but I've read a lot of media reports about how great South Koreans are doing.

 

[Techster]

I'm one of those "prepare for the worst" people...I literally have a mechanical room with shelves full of canned food and dried goods "just in case", a backup generator, and a filtration system.

Here is something I'd like to know: How does everyone feel about the steps the Government has taken so far. Not enough being done, or doing a good job?

Seriously, no judgements...just would like to hear everyone's opinion. I live in Atlanta close to the CDC and Emory so I get a LOT of info from neighbors and friends that work there. Not everyone is in the same situation as myself.

 

[flounder]

You know, South Korea isn't actually the beacon of hope and good health. They have the 5th most cases in the world. Per capita, their number would be equivalent to over 50,000 here. They are adding like 1-200 per day (equivalent to about 1,000 per day here). I think they're doing a better job than most, but its not easy living there right now. Not that you were saying that, but I've read a lot of media reports about how great South Koreans are doing.

True, but only 75 deaths. They've managed to avoid the scenario where hospital resources are overwhelmed and people start dying from other things because they can't access healthcare.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

I'm one of those "prepare for the worst" people...I literally have a mechanical room with shelves full of canned food and dried goods "just in case", a backup generator, and a filtration system.

Here is something I'd like to know: How does everyone feel about the steps the Government has taken so far. Not enough being done, or doing a good job?

Seriously, no judgements...just would like to hear everyone's opinion. I live in Atlanta close to the CDC and Emory so I get a LOT of info from neighbors and friends that work there. Not everyone is in the same situation as myself.

Our government has done better than most other countries, but the bureaucracy has certainly prevented us from doing better.

 

[Techster]

Likelihood of at least 60 days without sports...yuck...

 

[Techster]

Regardless of your political thoughts on Cuomo, he's been ahead of the curve in terms of the containment process. Other cities need to look at what he's doing.