Milwaukee
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Milwaukee
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I believe Belbo got canned.
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No one was banned recently. Folks have been warned per usual.
If they've stacked up enough warnings, then https://gtswarm.com/help/moderator-warnings/
If they've stacked up enough warnings, then https://gtswarm.com/help/moderator-warnings/
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I heard this on CNBC and immediately checked my senses of smell & taste.
I did have some headaches within the past few weeks.
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takethepoints
Helluva Engineer
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Along these lines, see:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/our-evolving-knowledge-of-the-insidious-disease-covid19
And click through to the links. This thing apparently attacks a broader spectrum of vital functions then was originally thought. You can be a lot sicker then you think without knowing it. Caveat: again, this is based on clinical practice.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/our-evolving-knowledge-of-the-insidious-disease-covid19
And click through to the links. This thing apparently attacks a broader spectrum of vital functions then was originally thought. You can be a lot sicker then you think without knowing it. Caveat: again, this is based on clinical practice.
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Didn't use ice cream. Conserving some Cherry Garcia for later today.
Milwaukee
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GT_EE78
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Monday afternoon thoughts.
First, was the right decision made to introduce stay at home orders - absolutely for multiple reasons.
As of Feb 29th there was 6 confirmed deaths in the US. On March 31 there 4,522 confirmed deaths. By the end of April (with a month of mitigation measures) there will be 61-62,000 deaths. imagine what that number would be if measures were not taken. It would have gotten completely out of control and brought down the country. The actual count of flu deaths (not the estimated count) is under 10,000. The first stay at home order was only 5 1/2 weeks ago - Mar 19 in CA. Most states have been under stay at home orders for around 4 weeks or less.
You will also find out on the back end when they do analysis that the death toll is considerably higher than what is being reported right now. Right now the weekly avg death rates are 60% higher than the historical norm. People who follow China from the outside and have sources on the inside say actual deaths there are at least 40K, possibly over 100K - but much larger than their official numbers. The numbers in Ecuador and Brazil are greatly understated since they are basically choosing largely not to report deaths. Ecuador literally has dead people lying in the streets. In Brazil they are digging mass graves in the Amazon to bury bodies. Even in Western countries were the counting is somewhat more transperent the typically counting methodology until recently was to only include those who died in a hospital and had tested positive.
Another reason for the shutdown was International Affairs. Since almost all other western countries chose to shut down, if we had not, then other countries would simply have banned contact with the US and had been very reluctant to start anything back up with the US. Which combined with the ravage of the disease itself would have simply cratered the economy. Basically, the economy was going down due to the virus one way or the other. You had to pick your poison.
the US's shutdown was much less severe than what other countries did. If China was a 10 and Italy and Spain were an 8 or 9. Most of the rest of Europe - sans Sweden, was a 6-7. US was about a 5. US never had a national mandated shutdown. It never shut down as many businesses and industries as other Western nations did. The restrictions on the US population were more lenient than on other nations in terms of leaving their house and going out.
Now the key is to start slowly opening back up. Bwelbo had the best visual. Recovery is going to be like the Nike Swoosh, a quick decline with a long slow uptick. Until there is a vaccine we will likely need to have some social distancing measures in place to keep the virus from running out of control. Right now we simply don't know enough. We know that the R0 is at least 2.7, and likely 3.0 or above. We know that the infection mortality rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8%. We don't know yet if having antibodies provides immunity and if so for how long. We know it has a high asymptomatic rate which is actually a negative because it makes it much more difficult to track and contain. And since we don't know about the antibodies yet, we don't know if someone who is asymptomatic could end up getting it again but getting sick the next time.
in New York the death rate is over 0.1%. Not the infection death rate, the overall death rate. This has killed one of every one thousand people in NY so far - a higher percentage of that in NYC metro.
The most likely long term measures are use of masks and keeping respectful distances. i also don't expect large scale events to occur for at least a few more months, if not longer. Finally, while it has never been banned, there will still likely need to be a strong recommendation to limit travel. that's the quickest way for it to run out of control. If an area does not have alot of cases, you don't really want alot of people coming in. You also don't want alot of people leaving and then returning to potentially bring he virus back to an area it is not active.
The recovery is likely going to take years to get back to where we were in December. Right now meat processing plants are running at 60% capacity due to plant shutdowns and plant operation setups due to outbreaks. And those are all in states that haven't been hit hard yet. If we go to the plan that we are going to try to keep the most susceptible people safe and let others return to work, that still takes between 20-25% of the workforce out of working. Which will both lower production capability and consumer spending capability. To get a sense of how this is going to go. VW is opening its first factory in Germany next week. It will be at 10% of normal production. Within 3 weeks its hopes to be up to 40% of production. More importantly consumers are not going to return just because you open doors.
Right now i'm pretty pleased with how things are going in GA. While some people are out and some businesses are open. By and large a majority are still in a wait and see mode.
Unlike in some european and Asian countries we were largely never under stay locked in the house orders. (Childen in Spain are allowed outside the house for 1 hr per day for the first time in 6 weeks today). We were still allowed to go outside, you just need to keep a respectful distance from people. We should be opening up larger public spaces soon so it is easier for people to go outside. And then only close them if people aren't practicing good social distance manners.
People also need to stop misrepresenting numbers. You can't compare an estimate to an actual count. For Example. The actual count of flu deaths in the US this year is around 10K. The actual count of COVID19 deaths this year is already close to 50K (there are currently roughly 5K of probable deaths included in the US numbers). Those are apple to apple comparison numbers. Not the estimates of one disease to the actual of another. Worldwide the estimate for flu deaths on a yearly basis is 250-400K. By the time this COVID19 pandemic ends the estimate for deaths will likely surpass 1M, and if there are continued waves it could get much higher.
First, was the right decision made to introduce stay at home orders - absolutely for multiple reasons.
As of Feb 29th there was 6 confirmed deaths in the US. On March 31 there 4,522 confirmed deaths. By the end of April (with a month of mitigation measures) there will be 61-62,000 deaths. imagine what that number would be if measures were not taken. It would have gotten completely out of control and brought down the country. The actual count of flu deaths (not the estimated count) is under 10,000. The first stay at home order was only 5 1/2 weeks ago - Mar 19 in CA. Most states have been under stay at home orders for around 4 weeks or less.
You will also find out on the back end when they do analysis that the death toll is considerably higher than what is being reported right now. Right now the weekly avg death rates are 60% higher than the historical norm. People who follow China from the outside and have sources on the inside say actual deaths there are at least 40K, possibly over 100K - but much larger than their official numbers. The numbers in Ecuador and Brazil are greatly understated since they are basically choosing largely not to report deaths. Ecuador literally has dead people lying in the streets. In Brazil they are digging mass graves in the Amazon to bury bodies. Even in Western countries were the counting is somewhat more transperent the typically counting methodology until recently was to only include those who died in a hospital and had tested positive.
Another reason for the shutdown was International Affairs. Since almost all other western countries chose to shut down, if we had not, then other countries would simply have banned contact with the US and had been very reluctant to start anything back up with the US. Which combined with the ravage of the disease itself would have simply cratered the economy. Basically, the economy was going down due to the virus one way or the other. You had to pick your poison.
the US's shutdown was much less severe than what other countries did. If China was a 10 and Italy and Spain were an 8 or 9. Most of the rest of Europe - sans Sweden, was a 6-7. US was about a 5. US never had a national mandated shutdown. It never shut down as many businesses and industries as other Western nations did. The restrictions on the US population were more lenient than on other nations in terms of leaving their house and going out.
Now the key is to start slowly opening back up. Bwelbo had the best visual. Recovery is going to be like the Nike Swoosh, a quick decline with a long slow uptick. Until there is a vaccine we will likely need to have some social distancing measures in place to keep the virus from running out of control. Right now we simply don't know enough. We know that the R0 is at least 2.7, and likely 3.0 or above. We know that the infection mortality rate is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8%. We don't know yet if having antibodies provides immunity and if so for how long. We know it has a high asymptomatic rate which is actually a negative because it makes it much more difficult to track and contain. And since we don't know about the antibodies yet, we don't know if someone who is asymptomatic could end up getting it again but getting sick the next time.
in New York the death rate is over 0.1%. Not the infection death rate, the overall death rate. This has killed one of every one thousand people in NY so far - a higher percentage of that in NYC metro.
The most likely long term measures are use of masks and keeping respectful distances. i also don't expect large scale events to occur for at least a few more months, if not longer. Finally, while it has never been banned, there will still likely need to be a strong recommendation to limit travel. that's the quickest way for it to run out of control. If an area does not have alot of cases, you don't really want alot of people coming in. You also don't want alot of people leaving and then returning to potentially bring he virus back to an area it is not active.
The recovery is likely going to take years to get back to where we were in December. Right now meat processing plants are running at 60% capacity due to plant shutdowns and plant operation setups due to outbreaks. And those are all in states that haven't been hit hard yet. If we go to the plan that we are going to try to keep the most susceptible people safe and let others return to work, that still takes between 20-25% of the workforce out of working. Which will both lower production capability and consumer spending capability. To get a sense of how this is going to go. VW is opening its first factory in Germany next week. It will be at 10% of normal production. Within 3 weeks its hopes to be up to 40% of production. More importantly consumers are not going to return just because you open doors.
Right now i'm pretty pleased with how things are going in GA. While some people are out and some businesses are open. By and large a majority are still in a wait and see mode.
Unlike in some european and Asian countries we were largely never under stay locked in the house orders. (Childen in Spain are allowed outside the house for 1 hr per day for the first time in 6 weeks today). We were still allowed to go outside, you just need to keep a respectful distance from people. We should be opening up larger public spaces soon so it is easier for people to go outside. And then only close them if people aren't practicing good social distance manners.
People also need to stop misrepresenting numbers. You can't compare an estimate to an actual count. For Example. The actual count of flu deaths in the US this year is around 10K. The actual count of COVID19 deaths this year is already close to 50K (there are currently roughly 5K of probable deaths included in the US numbers). Those are apple to apple comparison numbers. Not the estimates of one disease to the actual of another. Worldwide the estimate for flu deaths on a yearly basis is 250-400K. By the time this COVID19 pandemic ends the estimate for deaths will likely surpass 1M, and if there are continued waves it could get much higher.
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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30+ years and there is still no vaccine for HIV/AIDS. 10 years, approximately, and there is no vaccine for SARS or MERS. Appropriate preventive measures were pretty much demanded for HIV/AIDS, and sufficient treatments were long ago discovered for all 3 I mentioned, or, in the case of SARS and MERS, they have more or less faded into the woodwork. We cannot wait on a vaccine for Copid that possibly may never be found. We need to be pushing for adequate treatments and CONVENIENT and PRACTICAL preventive measures. Instead, the media and the left mock every single potential treatment that Trump addresses in the now-cancelled briefings, and have even gone so far as to totally ban one of them (hydroxychloroquine) in some places (Michigan, for one). And they twist his words in asking the doctors on his panel about the potential utilization of the disinfecting properties of ultra-violet light in treatment to say that he was recommending injecting clorox or lysol. We cannot continue something even as relatively simple as social distancing until a possibly never-coming vaccine is produced, and we have to consider every single possible treatment NOW, both in observational studies and clinical studies and quit "debunking" them for obvious political reasons.
GT_EE78
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>hopefully this is only the first of many to come
‘Unreliable Data’ Britain Drops China From Official Coronavirus Death Toll
https://abc14news.com/2020/04/27/un...s-china-from-official-coronavirus-death-toll/
‘Unreliable Data’ Britain Drops China From Official Coronavirus Death Toll
https://abc14news.com/2020/04/27/un...s-china-from-official-coronavirus-death-toll/
Milwaukee
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lol the china virus numbers are false. Talk about misrepresentation. There is so much wrong in your entire post; tons of backtracking on your overall stance at least, and that’s a good start imo. Overall you present your thoughts very well though.
Milwaukee
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Lol
Milwaukee
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Milwaukee
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herb
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@Milwaukee I guess we will see who had the better plan. A real world, live experiment.
GT_EE78
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> S Korea's reopening guidelines
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200422000877
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200422000877
GT_EE78
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N. KOREA
North Korean defector who was shot and wounded while trying to flee across the border to China ‘has tested positive for coronavirus’ - despite Pyongyang denying having any cases
06:25 EDT, 23 April 2020
- Man attempted to cross Tumen River from North Korea into China on April 20
- He was shot by a border guard and then taken to hospital to be treated
- Doctors tested him for coronavirus, and the test has come back positive
- Case provides strongest evidence yet that North Korea does have virus cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ests-positive-coronavirus-crossing-China.html
North Korean defector who was shot and wounded while trying to flee across the border to China ‘has tested positive for coronavirus’ - despite Pyongyang denying having any cases
06:25 EDT, 23 April 2020
- Man attempted to cross Tumen River from North Korea into China on April 20
- He was shot by a border guard and then taken to hospital to be treated
- Doctors tested him for coronavirus, and the test has come back positive
- Case provides strongest evidence yet that North Korea does have virus cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ests-positive-coronavirus-crossing-China.html
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