Coronavirus Thread

[FredJacket]

This may have been posted before, but I thought it was funny and wanted to share.
https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armchair-epidemiology-9aa8cf92d652

Very funny!

"lack the ability to understand their lack of ability.." Well put.

 

[takethepoints]

Agree belongs in the Economic thread. We were getting the "strong" "growth" of 2% only because we were running $1.4T / year deficits before this crap. Coupled with central bank abnormally low interest rates that were "required" since the economy was so "weak".

We have mortgaged our future.

But here's some good news about testing of the rhesus monkeys with more details than an earlier link. Looks like for the strain of COVID-19 they were immunized with, there was immunity 3 weeks later. Progress. Now testing people.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...nkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

Well … as long as people will buy federal bonds at a negative interest rate, all we have to do is restore mid-level growth (2.5 - 3%) in the long run (10 years) and we'll not only pay off the debt, but run a small profit out of the transaction. I'm pretty sure my grandkids can live with that.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Is someone on vacation? I used to 10 posts an hour & it’s like crickets today.

 

[takethepoints]

Here's an interesting look at where different states are in terms of starting to control the virus. See:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

It's worth noting that Silver is bending over backwards for some states. Georgia has seen some decrease in new cases, for instance, but we are also testing more (finally) and the decrease - a plateau, actually - might be an artifact of that. The West Coast states seem to be doing quite well, comparatively.

Problem = as many epidemiologists remind us, we are at the start of this, not the finish. The virus will probably re-ignite nationwide in the fall and we are probably 12 - 16 months from a vaccine. I saw Dr. Osterholm last night on tv and he predicted that over the next 12 - 18 months aroid 50-60% of the population would be infected. That would mean around 800K deaths over that period, if current IFR calculations are right. Here's what he says:

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/20/coronavirus-infectious-disease-doctor

Let's hope he is wrong.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Here's an interesting look at where different states are in terms of starting to control the virus. See:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/

It's worth noting that Silver is bending over backwards for some states. Georgia has seen some decrease in new cases, for instance, but we are also testing more (finally) and the decrease - a plateau, actually - might be an artifact of that. The West Coast states seem to be doing quite well, comparatively.

Problem = as many epidemiologists remind us, we are at the start of this, not the finish. The virus will probably re-ignite nationwide in the fall and we are probably 12 - 16 months from a vaccine. I saw Dr. Osterholm last night on tv and he predicted that over the next 12 - 18 months aroid 50-60% of the population would be infected. That would mean around 800K deaths over that period, if current IFR calculations are right. Here's what he says:

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/20/coronavirus-infectious-disease-doctor

Let's hope he is wrong.

Not sure if the data I read about hospitalization rates for the virus in Georgia is correct, but 7-10 days ago we had about 2,800 to 3,000 cases in the hospitals. Now we are up to 4,300. That seems like a very big increase if the data is correct. It indicates the number of deaths will grow a lot in the next two weeks. I do know the infection rate has a lot of variability to it, but the hospitalization rates are another thing. Has Georgia had a bunch of new infections over the last few weeks?

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Is someone on vacation? I used to 10 posts an hour & it’s like crickets today.

Don't you mean someoneS? Both parties seem to have strangely disappeared. Maybe they were both banned.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Don't you mean someoneS? Both parties seem to have strangely disappeared. Maybe they were both banned.

Yeah thought about that later. Must have been a double play to retire the side!

 

[GT_EE78]

Don't you mean someoneS? Both parties seem to have strangely disappeared. Maybe they were both banned.

It's sad what has happened to the gtswarm we had come to know and love. no way to know i guess how many have been tossed.

 

[MWBATL]

It's sad what has happened to the gtswarm we had come to know and love. no way to know i guess how many have been tossed.

I got banned from the political threads. I did not realize it was one strike and you’re out, and I ,um, said one thing....

 

[LibertyTurns]

I got banned from the political threads. I did not realize it was one strike and you’re out, and I ,um, said one thing....

Ah that’s explaining the proliferation of political arguments breaking out in all the forums. It appears a lot of people have been banned.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Maybe a mod got a little blood lust with the ban hammer. Turned it into a slaughter? It does seem a bit dead. Where is RonJon throwing some stoic stat at my post about how no one should ever try to have any thoughts on a subject until it has been dissected 28 ways by the hallowed halls of statistical academics and their learned PHD's. We should just be mindless minions to the higher enlightened beings.

 

[RonJohn]

Maybe a mod got a little blood lust with the ban hammer. Turned it into a slaughter? It does seem a bit dead. Where is RonJon throwing some stoic stat at my post about how no one should ever try to have any thoughts on a subject until it has been dissected 28 ways by the hallowed halls of statistical academics and their learned PHD's. We should just be mindless minions to the higher enlightened beings.

I'm still here as far as I know. I've been paying attention to other things today. And, at least as far as I know there hasn't been any real news about COVID-19. Of course there hasn't been any real news about it for a long time.

 

[GT_EE78]

I got banned from the political threads. I did not realize it was one strike and you’re out, and I ,um, said one thing....

he got me about 24 hours after the new rules. nah, no agenda there

 

[takethepoints]

Not sure if the data I read about hospitalization rates for the virus in Georgia is correct, but 7-10 days ago we had about 2,800 to 3,000 cases in the hospitals. Now we are up to 4,300. That seems like a very big increase if the data is correct. It indicates the number of deaths will grow a lot in the next two weeks. I do know the infection rate has a lot of variability to it, but the hospitalization rates are another thing. Has Georgia had a bunch of new infections over the last few weeks?

Check at Johns Hopkins. They seem to do the most with the state data. Personally, I haven't a clue and it is too late to get one.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Just looking at the list of online members, it's become a lonely world on here.

 

[MWBATL]

Maybe a mod got a little blood lust with the ban hammer. Turned it into a slaughter? It does seem a bit dead. Where is RonJon throwing some stoic stat at my post about how no one should ever try to have any thoughts on a subject until it has been dissected 28 ways by the hallowed halls of statistical academics and their learned PHD's. We should just be mindless minions to the higher enlightened beings.

Actually, it turns out that you can say anything horrible about Democrats or Republicans in general, no matter how biased or disgusting or obviously wrong it is. But you cannot point any type of insult at another poster. I did, and I got banned for it (and I admit that I did...even though I happen to think that poster deserved my rebuke...LOL).

In truth though, the mods have an impossible and thankless job at policing speech. My comment above is NOT Meant ot be critical of the mods or the rules of these boards.....in fact< I sympathize completely with them. You have to establish some type of rule, or else it becomes a free for all where the mods own biases might become the deciding factor (like on Twitter), and being GT folk, our mods are smart enough not to fall into that trap. So, when you then establish rules that allow as much free speech as possible, you run the risk of having seeming inconsistencies. But all they are doing is following the rules of the site, following them as honestly as possible, and not getting paid near enough to do so. So despite the fact that they banned me, I support our mods!

 

[LibertyTurns]

I was thinking about this last night and shouldn’t the people posting political stuff be banned TO the political section not OUT of it?

Back to Wuhan virus. It’s still killing the old and folks with the conditions previously cited. Opening up the country is going to be ok unless you’re either in one of those groups (99.999%) or you’re the unlucky one (.001%) that nobody can explain.

 

[Jacket4Life]

 

[armeck]

 

[Milwaukee]