Coronavirus Thread

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Good. Problems = the guidelines say two weeks after peak, not one. Also, what's the testing/contract tracing infrastructure up there?

Sorry, just looked it up. Our peak was around April 8th-ish. Its not precise as what I found shows a listing by week, but its somewhere around then. Could be as early as April 5th. That peak also was well below projections, so I'm guessing they would take that into account too. I haven't heard we plan on doing anything different for testing, as we haven't been at our max capacity in at least several weeks and 85%-90% of all our tests have come back negative. So we appear to have excess testing capacity at this point should we need it.
 
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684Bee

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Good. Problems = the guidelines say two weeks after peak, not one. Also, what's the testing/contract tracing infrastructure up there?

It’s all a best guess, man. Even the “experts” don’t know the exact right formula. You can’t. There’s still too much unknown and it’s a very fluid situation. Someone has to step out and make a decision and, yes, take a risk. Some States are opening up; others are not. Some people will venture out; others won’t.

You seem to embody that old Teddy Roosevelt quote about the man outside the arena critiquing everything the man that’s inside of it is doing. I’m glad there are people willing to “get in the arena” right now. Otherwise, we’ll just sit here dithering about all the little nuances.
 

GoldZ

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This is why I am not overly concerned. The way things are being reported, the beaches opened up to Spring Break conditions, and the business openings are going to be party times in the businesses.

There are ways to open up more than we have been without having the infection spread like mad. To have it work will take well thought out requirements for the businesses, and better communication of these requirements from the government. It will also take a less adversarial press, from all sides of politics. The press should help inform everyone about what is actually happening, instead of talking heads trying to rile people up.
Your second paragraph means we are doomed in a BIG way!
 

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RamblinRed

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if you want really good, short digestible pieces of data on COVID19 I highly recomment Nate Silver's twitter feed.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538

The tweet thread he is on now is comparing the 7 day average new cases to the peak for all 50 states,
He also every day has a tweet where he compares the numbers of deaths, cases, and positive tests to the previous day and same day last week.

in another tweet he talks about how cases are coming down, but are coming down much faster in the NY/NJ area than nationally so it isn't all good news as that means other areas have case numbers that are increasing.
 

takethepoints

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It’s all a best guess, man. Even the “experts” don’t know the exact right formula. You can’t. There’s still too much unknown and it’s a very fluid situation. Someone has to step out and make a decision and, yes, take a risk. Some States are opening up; others are not. Some people will venture out; others won’t.

You seem to embody that old Teddy Roosevelt quote about the man outside the arena critiquing everything the man that’s inside of it is doing. I’m glad there are people willing to “get in the arena” right now. Otherwise, we’ll just sit here dithering about all the little nuances.
See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/when-can-we-get-back-to-normal/

I'm not saying anything that medical experts - Carroll isn't the only one - are saying. There's no question that opening up even following the guidelines will be a risk and will lead to more cases and deaths. But that's not the issue; the issue is whether the risks so great that are likely to re-ignite a major public health crisis. Consensus opinion is that they are unless we are very careful. Let's follow that.
 

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See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/when-can-we-get-back-to-normal/

I'm not saying anything that medical experts - Carroll isn't the only one - are saying. There's no question that opening up even following the guidelines will be a risk and will lead to more cases and deaths. But that's not the issue; the issue is whether the risks so great that are likely to re-ignite a major public health crisis. Consensus opinion is that they are unless we are very careful. Let's follow that.

That’s the “crazy” thing about flattening the curve - if you’re at a small fraction of hospital capacity, then you’ve shut down too much. I’d also not use the word “re-ignite” because there were only a few cities that exceeded their capacity. You just don’t want to do too much too fast and ignite a public health crisis in the first place. So far the vast vast majority of the country has avoided that. Better to go slow with re-opening than to risk being a NYC.
 

dtm1997

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Measured messaging makes a difference.



On the other hand, I'll believe this happens when I see it happening.
 

gthxxxx

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Well, if you want to avoid unnecessary deaths and assaults on health, yes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had to close things down again around September. But maybe we'll get all rational all of a sudden and develop the capacity to handle a second wave while we get a respite. This process isn't like a light switch; we need to get ready for what ever comes while we have the chance. And we have to react accordingly.
Speaking of health, how would the means to feed and shelter work, i.e. the relief. The recent (3?) stimulus bills recently cost ($2+?) trillion and various earmarked funds are already depleted (within a month?). There's also arguably existing gaps of the population in need that are not covered, which most likely will grow exponentially as savings run out. How does the plan address this until May/June? September? End of the year? Next year? the foreseeable future?
 

Pointer

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You stated there were states with compulsory vaccinations. This is not the case and will never be the case.

My next response to this will come when someone explains how someone who shelters at home and doesn’t leave is harmed by someone going to work somewhere else in a town. Makes no sense. All we got is either I want to control you or we need to placate the handful of people that want accommodations/compensation for any situation they can dream up. It’s part of what’s wrong with our country now. Everyone feels entitled to a safety net.
Liberty, I sympathize with your point, so please read what I say next patiently.

Some people will need more help then others right now. Some companies will also need the same. The most important thing, however, is people's health and safety. That comes first.

For example, my company has accepted government money and in return, they cannot lay off or reduce salaries for the next few months. They instead created a company wide "schedule reduction" where we can only work 30 hours per week and will only get paid for that amount. You wanna know how many hours I've averaged since this policy came out? It's much more than 30 hours per week and im working into the weekends as well.

Now I'm not complaining, far from it. I understand that this helps the company, which in turn helps to keep other people employed. I'm happy to do it. It's also easier for me to do it since I can work from home for most of it.

The problem is that some people don't have my same luxury and their job requires them in a workplace in order to keep a salary. These are the people that need the help the most. Now if employers were able to provide masks, gloves and other ppe, then that's a start for those jobs that require us to leave the home. This is a burden financially and logistically as these are in short supply.

Because of the above mentioned and lack of hospital space, we have the shelter in place and social distancing policies. Now those only work if we all follow it as much as possible. You are free to do a you like, but if you really don't need to go into the office or where ever your work is, why do it? I think the flaw in your argument is that you think if you get sick, then you're the only one at risk. But what if you get sick, don't know it, hold a meeting with you staff, some of them get it and from there the dominos fall. To me that is an avoidable case where simply working from home, if possible, helps to protect everyone.

If you have already offered that, then great! But I think what some are having issues with go back to my original point with the "work schedule reduction". On paper I'm not required to work more than 30 hours, but the reality is I'm required to work much more than that.

I'm working my tail off not only for my self, but for my family and those who cannot at this time earn a safe living.

It's times like this that we all need to be a little more understanding and make some adjustments. We must be be willing to lean on others or have others lean on us. Those who can work safely, let's double down and put our nose to the grindstone, because we will have to pick up the slack from those who can't.
 

RonJohn

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I was barely in my teens and from NYC. I can't say I remember that at all.

A group in Utah announced in 1989 that they had achieved cold fusion in a lab. Scientists from GT confirmed the result in a lab at GT. They later found out that the sensor they used to detect neutrons had heated up during the experiment and provided erroneous readings. They had to retract the results of their experiment.

Which is also relevant to events now. Peer review and confirmation are vitally important to scientific and medical announcements. That should be kept in mind when reading/listening to results of experimental treatments. If someone develops a "belief" in something after a non-confirmed, non-peer reviewed announcement, it is very difficult for that person to drop the "belief" if peer review exposes issues with the results.
 

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We have currently run more tests than the rest of the world combined.
 
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