Conference Realignment

stinger78

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My wife is a former college professor. She said her belief, supported by conversations with her former GSU contacts, is that the baby boom created a bubble for that generation and the next, but the trend now is for smaller families and for more ingle and married females to go childless. There are just fewer kids in school now.

This, plus more and more are figuring ways to a nice career w/o a college degree.
 

Jim Prather

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Enrollment figures are available. How schools respond varies.

I will give you one "Boomer doom-casting". I was made aware of two institutions on the doom list and knew both. So I asked them. One, a private school, slashed its tuition in half and still can't get enough students to sustain itself. Campus maintenance has been suspended. Cash reserves will be depleted by the end of this year. The expectation is the campus will be closed and the real estate redeveloped. School was 150 years old.

Another is a state school. Enrollment is off 20%. Word out is to prepare to absorb the entire population of students when the announce closure.

Of course, they could just drop programs. Tulane dropped 1/3 of its programs and is a shell of what it was 30 years ago. So, sure ... it depends. But it is happening.
Wow! I knew about some of this, but didn't realize it was hitting already.
 

roadkill

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My wife is a former college professor. She said her belief, supported by conversations with her former GSU contacts, is that the baby boom created a bubble for that generation and the next, but the trend now is for smaller families and for more ingle and married females to go childless. There are just fewer kids in school now.

This is correct. One only has to examine population demographics to see what is happening to the college-age cohort.
USA_Population_Pyramid.svg.png
 

stinger 1957

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I don't think it is just the demographics, think it is also coming down to what is the usefulness, but academia is never going to acknowledge this I'm guessing, or maybe they don't really know since they live somewhat in a non reality bubble IMO. My conversations with them over the years tells me they are really clueless to the real world, not all but most.
 

stinger78

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I don't think it is just the demographics, think it is also coming down to what is the usefulness, but academia is never going to acknowledge this I'm guessing, or maybe they don't really know since they live somewhat in a non reality bubble IMO. My conversations with them over the years tells me they are really clueless to the real world, not all but most.
The term “ivory tower” didn’t happen by mistake. The university has always been a greenhouse environment. Personally, this is why I believe internship and practicum are so important.
 

orientalnc

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I don't think it is just the demographics, think it is also coming down to what is the usefulness, but academia is never going to acknowledge this I'm guessing, or maybe they don't really know since they live somewhat in a non reality bubble IMO. My conversations with them over the years tells me they are really clueless to the real world, not all but most.
I don't agree with this. "Academia" is not some monolith that imposes useless minutia on gullible young people. What is the real world you believe they are clueless about?
 

SimpleGT

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Is it smart for FSU to yell and scream about their ENORMOUS TV value when they may want to buy their TV rights to get out of the ACC? I think their case to escape the GOR without significant penalties is weak and if they still want out they may be arguing for a higher value per year

Of course no one said they were smart
 

Vespidae

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I don't see how ND has anything to do with FSU's case against the ACC myself.
FSU is attempting to demonstrate that the ACC decisions are not normal and customary. The ACC, in its defense, is free to argue that they are and that, for example, Notre Dame's practices are similar.
 

Bogey

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FSU is attempting to demonstrate that the ACC decisions are not normal and customary. The ACC, in its defense, is free to argue that they are and that, for example, Notre Dame's practices are similar.
I'm no legal beagle but I don't think nepotism can be construed as customary and accepted practice in any contract negotiations.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Enrollment figures are available. How schools respond varies.

I will give you one "Boomer doom-casting". I was made aware of two institutions on the doom list and knew both. So I asked them. One, a private school, slashed its tuition in half and still can't get enough students to sustain itself. Campus maintenance has been suspended. Cash reserves will be depleted by the end of this year. The expectation is the campus will be closed and the real estate redeveloped. School was 150 years old.

Another is a state school. Enrollment is off 20%. Word out is to prepare to absorb the entire population of students when the announce closure.

Of course, they could just drop programs. Tulane dropped 1/3 of its programs and is a shell of what it was 30 years ago. So, sure ... it depends. But it is happening.
I was in administration, as well as a part time instructor, in a small private two year college. We were on the “hit list” for as long as I can remember, certainly before I arrived. Read recently that their enrollment is way up and at a 26 year high. All I can say is their rebranding and mission shift was critical. But also, so far, very very lucky.
 

Techster

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Well, I guess we all knew the SEC and B1G would rule the college sports kingdom...and now they're making preparations for laying down the rules of the "new" kingdom. Bye bye NCAA...your time is dwindling...







 

RonJohn

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Well, I guess we all knew the SEC and B1G would rule the college sports kingdom...and now they're making preparations for laying down the rules of the "new" kingdom. Bye bye NCAA...your time is dwindling...
I doubt they will lay down rules for everyone. I think this is more likely related to the ideas in the NCAA presidents statements about an FBS split into "professional" and "academic" divisions. I think they will answer things like: Who else, if anyone would be invited to the upper division? Will the division split include all sports or only football, maybe basketball? Will they remain a part of the NCAA or split into a separate organization entirely?

In my opinion, a division split or entire separation from the NCAA is more likely to occur sooner than additional P4 realignment. That is part of the reason I am baffled by FSU's lawsuit. Why bake a butt out of yourself now, when it won't likely benefit you immediately. Plus there are things in play that could tear down the current conference alignments sooner than the results of this lawsuit.
 

g0lftime

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The 85 scholarship limit will likely be in jeopardy. They will dry up as much talent as they can. Better to have a guy on your bench than playing against you plus it weakens the competition. One of the big reasons GT left the SEC.
 

Richard7125

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Bias is involved in "facts" that are presented. Bias is involved in headlines and statements. "If Florida State leaves the ACC, it will cause the conference to implode like the PAC-12" Is that a factual statement, or is it a biased interpretation of what might happen? They list some of the items listed in the FSU amendment to the lawsuit. In that, they quote a former article which stated that the former FSU AD "was a staunch supporter of FSU’s membership in the ACC and later the ACC Network", and that he and the former FSU president willingly signed the GOR extension. They then talk about their biased interpretation that FSU is the entirety of the media value of the ACC and that if FSU leaves that the ACC will basically be worthless. The article is simply fanboy drivel. They don't even realize that they post a direct argument against FSU getting out of the GOR in their own article.

I am not a fanboy of the ACC in particular. I think plenty of negative things about the ACC. I have read FSU's original filing, but I haven't read the complete amendment. The actual details in FSU's filing are almost laughable. That is from reading the actual filing, not from reading someone else's interpretation of it. The ACC filings are logical and point to laws. FSU's filing is sloppy and while it references laws, it doesn't do a good job of lining up it's points with those laws. I have stated many times that I am not a lawyer, but my layman reading of the filings do not seem professional at all.

Either you totally misinterpret my skepticism for total distrust, or you like to twist words to try to win internet arguments. Did I say that McMurphy is "untrustworthy", or did I say that I like to have more information than just his quoting another source before I actually believe what his interpretation about the "magnificent seven"? There are few people/sources that I totally distrust out of hand. There are sources that I have more faith in than others. What I do for the most part is try to find facts from multiple sources, and make my own conclusions.

I think for the end game discussion, we are simply speaking past each other. I do understand that FSU wants to be in the Big10 or SEC in order to make more money. What I don't understand is how their current methods are supposed to get them there. I had a post earlier where I went through possibilities if FSU is able to get out of the ACC. Even if they get out with their media rights, they will not be a fully paid member of either conference until the next media contracts. (2030 for Big10 and 2034 for SEC). To me, the end game discussion is about more than just where FSU would like to be. It is about what is possible for FSU. They WILL NOT get a fully paid membership to either of those conferences. Not because of anything to do with FSU or the ACC, but because fully paid memberships are dependent upon the broadcast companies paying a full amount to the conference. That isn't happening. So, what is FSU trying to get NOW with their actions NOW? If FBS splits up into a "professional" and an "academic" division, then things will be blown up, and this action isn't necessary. In six years, full memberships in the Big10 could be available. FSU's actions might make sense in six years, but why now? Your answer to the end game has been that FSU wants to be a member of the Big10 or SEC making $50 million more than they make in the ACC. Well, no matter what happens in the lawsuits, they won't get that result for at least six years. So why file a lawsuit NOW? What is the end game of the current actions? If they win everything they want, where will they be in 2025 or 2026? They won't be a fully paid member of the Big10. They might be able to make $32 million like Oregon, but that isn't worth the trouble they are going through NOW. In 2030, they could possibly be a fully paid member of the Big10. However, as an end game, where do they think they can possibly be in 2026 as a result of the current legal filings?
Regarding endgame, FSU wants out of the ACC as fast as possible (hence lawsuits versus just bitching). They know it’s going to cost a boatload of money and are trying to reduce that amount. This isn’t about how much money they can make in 2025, 2026, or 2027. They know they are going to take it in the shorts in the short term. They also know it’s going to be a lengthy process so they are starting it sooner rather than waiting to the last minute.
 

Techster

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I doubt they will lay down rules for everyone. I think this is more likely related to the ideas in the NCAA presidents statements about an FBS split into "professional" and "academic" divisions. I think they will answer things like: Who else, if anyone would be invited to the upper division? Will the division split include all sports or only football, maybe basketball? Will they remain a part of the NCAA or split into a separate organization entirely?

In my opinion, a division split or entire separation from the NCAA is more likely to occur sooner than additional P4 realignment. That is part of the reason I am baffled by FSU's lawsuit. Why bake a butt out of yourself now, when it won't likely benefit you immediately. Plus there are things in play that could tear down the current conference alignments sooner than the results of this lawsuit.

We'll see. I suspect the SEC and B1G have enough clout that they will set rules and policies that are advantageous for their respective leagues, and the rest of the conferences can take it or go on their merry way. Since ESPN (SEC) and FOX (B1G) ultimately hold the biggest war chests, I don't see the rest of the conferences having too much of a choice other than going with it.

It won't be too much longer before the SEC and B1G are so far ahead of everyone that the rest of the conferences will play by a different set of rules. SEC and B1G will probably embrace a more "professional" model, and the other conferences given the shrinking pool of money will have to operate with a different set of rules and policies.
 

RonJohn

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Regarding endgame, FSU wants out of the ACC as fast as possible (hence lawsuits versus just bitching). They know it’s going to cost a boatload of money and are trying to reduce that amount. This isn’t about how much money they can make in 2025, 2026, or 2027. They know they are going to take it in the shorts in the short term. They also know it’s going to be a lengthy process so they are starting it sooner rather than waiting to the last minute.
Something else I thought about, but not being a lawyer, I don't know how it would work. FSU has asked that their notice to leave the ACC be entered and be backdated to August of 2023. When the venue is finally settled, could the ACC submit to the court that they accept FSU's notice to leave, but only dispute the date of the notice? Could the court decide that FSU has entered notice to leave the ACC and that the effective date would either be August of 2023 or December of 2023 depending on the decision of the court? Could the ACC acquiesce to the backdating, and just ask the court to give FSU what it wants on that particular point? If they did so, could FSU do anything to prevent the court from entering a judgement that FSU has withdrawn from the ACC? FSU asked for that specifically. If the ACC agreed to it specifically, why would the court do anything except enter it as a decision? It seems to me that it would hurt FSU's negotiating power. It wouldn't be FSU arguing about potential results of potential actions. It would only be FSU fighting to not pay the amounts that FSU themselves stated in court filings would be due.

With regard to the timing, most reasonable sports journalists that I have read have been saying that 2030 or so was the time frame for teams to leave the ACC. The GOR hit would be much less, even manageable. The ability to get a full share will be much higher since the Big10's contract runs out in 2030. If FSU is able to reach a settlement, they will still make less money than the rest of the ACC for about six years. Acting now makes the settlement larger, and the length of time making less money longer. If they are going to join the Big10, they could wait five more years to announce. Pay the entire withdrawal fee. Pay a settlement for the GOR that is left. They would make more money between now and then. They would pay less of a settlement to the conference, even if they didn't fight and paid full amounts at that point. They would also immediately make more money in 2030. If it is only getting out of the ACC as soon as possible as you say, it is going to cost FSU a boatload of money in settlement and lost revenue vs just waiting a few years. Plus in the next few years, there are things happening outside of the control of the ACC that could eliminate the need to take any legal action at all.
 
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