Conference Realignment

[Northeast Stinger]

View attachment 15416

Context

 

[Northeast Stinger]

For fun, I just looked at the final AP poll (which is determined by opinion, no set criteria) and final strength of schedule. If you apply the same scoring system to strength of schedule… you get these as the Top 4 Teams (on a combined basis):

Michigan
Alabama
Ohio State
Texas

FSU came in around 10th. Personally, I think teams should be rewarded for playing tougher schedules, which is why a winning Liberty doesn’t get in.

Alabama went 1-1 against their only tough opponents. And almost lost to some other opponents. If not for preseason polls, as well as the working assumption that every team in the SEC is a little better than everyone else, Alabama had a schedule almost as weak as uga.

So I don’t buy the strength of schedule argument at all with regard to Bama.

If strength of schedule continues to be on a computer driven “garbage in/garbage out” scale we will never be able to compare teams accurately.

 

[LT 1967]

If ESPN has an option to terminate the media deal after 2027 in 2025 would the GOR survive it? If a potential replacement media deal sucked, would enough teams vote to dissolve the conference that the GOR goes away that way? Did adding SMU/Cal/Stanford make the math for that worse?

(And why on earth would the ACC and its schools have extended the GOR to 2036 if they could only secure a media deal ending in 2027 with an optional extension? Other than well-documented ACC idiocy/incompetence? But why would FSU, Clemson, *anyone else* except for Duke or Wake or such not make a stink about that at the time?)

My understanding is that the extension to 2036 was part of the negotiations with ESPN for the ACC network. Raycom was also involved in some way at that time.

Sounds like the ACC was desperate and added the extra years for stability in order to placate ESPN concerns. As I recall FSU was gripping about the ACC even back when this happened around the time Maryland left the conference. I think Swofford had to travel to Tallahassee a couple of times to convince
FSU to sign the GOR.

 

[cpf2001]

My understanding is that the extension to 2036 was part of the negotiations with ESPN for the ACC network. Raycom was also involved in some way at that time.

Sounds like the ACC was desperate and added the extra years for stability in order to placate ESPN concerns. As I recall FSU was gripping about the ACC even back when this happened around the time Maryland left the conference. I think Swofford had to travel to Tallahassee a couple of times to convince
FSU to sign the GOR.

But if the 2027 termination option is accurate, the GOR extension didn't placate ESPN's concerns. Something doesn't add up, but sadly "the ACC just isn't well run" seems like a quite plausible explanation.

 

[slugboy]

Paul Finebaum is a twit.

Evergreen statement. Many of the talking heads are

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

I think Swofford had to travel to Tallahassee a couple of times to convince
FSU to sign the GOR.

The notes from those meetings may be golden!

 

[alagold]

Will ACC ,if it continues, add say--CFla.?

 

[jgtengineer]

I think everyone did.

I literally word for word the justification they had for including Alabama and uga.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I literally word for word the justification they had for including Alabama and uga.

I just do not think anyone caught it as a joke.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Paul Finebaum is a twit.

You misspelled t***

 

[Vespidae]

Alabama had a schedule almost as weak as uga.

The NCAA rankings disagree with you.

That‘s the problem. No one accepts the rankings. The SoS. The Power Index. Or any other method.

Until there is a method everyone agrees upon, the debate will continue.

 

[Techwood Relict]

And outside of FSU everyone is fine with it.

Its ok to feel ok about both.

The ACC got short-sheeted (true that) but it's also ok to not back the crazy one in the relationship.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Few things here:

Debt is not a factor in conference expansion (I'll assume if it threatens the viability of a program it would be, but that's not the case with GT). A lot of teams carry debt for various reasons (Michigan has about $15million less in debt than GT, new B1G member Washington has roughly $245 million in debt, Illinois has much more debt than GT at almost $300million) and if GT joins the B1G, our debt can be paid down quickly. Had GT joined back in 2012, we probably would have minimal debt on the books. I've written this before, GT has lost out on hundreds of millions the past decade since turning down the B1G.



When B1G invited GT to join in 2012, our average attendance was 43K+. In of 2023, our average home attendance is 34K. In CPJ's last year 2018, it was at 43K+. Clearly, the Collins years have turned away fans. If Key continues on the trajectory he's been on, more fans will turn out. If GT plays a B1G schedule, GT is probably at capacity for a lot of the games given the unique matchups and amount of B1G alums in Atlanta. That's a consideration for conferences. Also, conferences also understand these figures change year to year given the circumstances surrounding a team.

GT's brand is a LOT stronger than you think, and it's from multiple metrics:

#9 most recognized Logo

Ranking the top 25 most recognizable and iconic college logos

Ranking the most iconic and recognizable logos in CFB

ugawire.usatoday.com

#32 most recognized brand by top recruits (2022 survey)

Ranking college football's top brands, according to high school recruits

Which college football programs are the best brands right now? Let's ask the top high school recruits.

www.si.com

#34 in Brand Value (2019 study, it's behind a Wall Street Journal paywall so I'll take the Reddit poster at their word)



This is an interesting one since it hits at the heart of why conferences expand in the first place. What additive value would a college bring to conference's media contract? By the metrics in the link above (and not including ND who is a football independent...and the "holy grail" for all conference expansion targets) GT is the 4th most valuable brand in the ACC. In terms of "true target" value for the B1G, GT is the 2nd most valuable school. Clemson, given their market and academics, is not a target for the B1G. The same can be said of VT. This puts us above UNC/UVA/Miami who have been historically linked to the B1G along with GT.

Choosing a team for expansion is a 50+ year decision. "Several really good seasons in FB and BB" (as you said) would not move the needle when a conference is looking at what the school would bring far into the future, not what's currently going on. If you look at the links I provided in my earlier post, those are the factors that school presidents, conferences, and media companies look at when forecasting the next 50+ years. A few good seasons, or a few bad seasons, doesn't change the the value of a school in the long run.

Does anybody else think Techster has a whole staff working for him?

 

[Techster]

Does anybody else think Techster has a whole staff working for him?

It's the holiday season, and the bite has been slow (actually non existent) down here in FL. You can only eat and drink so much...so GTSwarm has been getting more attention than I care to admit.

 

[stinger78]

Evergreen statement. Many of the talking heads are

Yup

 

[Techster]

The back and forth between SMU and FSU on Twitter is magnificent:

 

[iceeater1969]

FSU is complaining about the acc money distribution.

Their fans are pitching in and certian other teams fans are not.

SMU fans pony up $$ to get in ACC with limited tv money.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Its ok to feel ok about both.

The ACC got short-sheeted (true that) but it's also ok to not back the crazy one in the relationship.

Except the crazy one represents YOU!! We are all the crazy one because none of us could beat them. The crazy one ran a train on all of us which is the goal. They are our Champion and we got screwed. Laugh now but when it happens to GT I will not be shocked or even whine because I see it coming. I can see us in 2025 going 10-2, beating UGA, and getting no invite because the committee uses a formula that says a game in week 3 we should have won by 14 instead of 10. Meanwhile Auburn goes 9-3 and gets an invite. This place would go nuts and I’ll be here reminding everyone that when a conference doesn’t back all schools then they won’t back you.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The NCAA rankings disagree with you.

That‘s the problem. No one accepts the rankings. The SoS. The Power Index. Or any other method.

Until there is a method everyone agrees upon, the debate will continue.

As you can tell, I’m pretty much done with any strength of schedule or power rankings that rely on “experts” handicapping all the teams before the first game is played based on past history. In my opinion it creates a cascading set of bad data points that increases the potential for error as the season progresses.

 

[4shotB]

I’ll be here reminding everyone that when a conference doesn’t back all schools then they won’t back you.

Some of your consistent talking points are logically presented but yet debatable. However, regarding this last sentence quoted above...of this we are certain!