Conference Realignment

[Techster]

I’m hearing rumor on another message board that GT could be leaving the ACC for the B1G with an announcement this weekend. Would explain why the football schedules were still up in the air after the recent ACC AD meeting.

I love a good conference realignment conspiracy as much (if not more) than the next person, but this makes no sense for a school in GT's situation. Unless GT found a one of one savant lawyer that cracked the GOR, and GT somehow found hundreds of millions to leave the ACC....and this is not including the timing of media contracts with the B1G and ACC, well I would take it with a ocean full of salt.

At bare minimum, GT is going to have to fork over between $200-300 million to leave, and that's before negotiating the release of our media rights from the ACC. I have heard that the ACC is willing to release members early for a substantial amount of money before they can leave without any kind of reimbursement to the ACC, but GT is not in the position take on that proposition.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I hear we are starting a European College Football conference as the loophole in the GOR was for the US only. The loophole was written with invisible ink.

But trust me, I have it from a good source

 

[rfjeff9]

I planned on winning that $1.7 billion lottery and paying for our path to the B1G or SEC on the spot.

Sadly, it didn't pan out. I failed you all.

 

[gtchem05]

I’m hearing rumor on another message board that GT could be leaving the ACC for the B1G with an announcement this weekend. Would explain why the football schedules were still up in the air after the recent ACC AD meeting.

I personally don’t understand how that would work with the grant of rights, but just passing along what I’m hearing. Would be exciting news if true.

Just coming back on to own the dumb &@$! post I submitted Saturday. Lucky for me, the proverbial paper bag I’ve been wearing on my head since the BC game can serve dual purpose. Apologies to all. I completely misread the tea leaves on an ‘insider’ board. Supposedly there was some big news that was going to drop yesterday but didn’t. I misinterpreted it as conference-related, but it was recruiting-related. Good reminder to stick with the facts. Hopefully we get some good recruiting news soon, but I’m not holding my breath (at least until the bag on my head changes to plastic).

 

[CEB]

Just coming back on to own the dumb &@$! post I submitted Saturday. Lucky for me, the proverbial paper bag I’ve been wearing on my head since the BC game can serve dual purpose. Apologies to all. I completely misread the tea leaves on an ‘insider’ board. Supposedly there was some big news that was going to drop yesterday but didn’t. I misinterpreted it as conference-related, but it was recruiting-related. Good reminder to stick with the facts. Hopefully we get some good recruiting news soon, but I’m not holding my breath (at least until the bag on my head changes to plastic).

You got bad information on a football message board?!? I’M SHOCKED!!

Message board etiquette actually requires you to bookmark this and come back five years from now and proclaim, “I told you so!“

I, for one, say don’t sweat it.

 

[RamblinRed]

Given that GT was one of the biggest proponents of adding Stan/Cal/SMU in the conference I don't think GT is really thinking of leaving anytime soon, if ever.

I really think we need to see how the money for the sport plays out for the next 5-6 years before we have any expectations for future conference realignment.
I'm not going to worry about it until the end of the decade.

I'm not convinced there is money in the system there for conferences to be adding new teams as full shares.

Every year the internet crazies are talking about how the ACC is about to fall apart - yet the ACC hasn't lost a school since MD.
Just an FYI on MD. They have not beaten a ranked B1G team since they joined that conference. Just getting more money does not make you a better program.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

It could be argued that Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland have not improved since joining the BIG.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

It could be argued that Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland have not improved since joining the BIG.

Rutgers is much better now than when they joined the Big, but they were so awful prior that it is hard to notice. Nebraska fell off a cliff when they fired Osborne. Ef Maryland for leaving the ACC.

 

[g0lftime]

Rutgers is much better now than when they joined the Big, but they were so awful prior that it is hard to notice. Nebraska fell off a cliff when they fired Osborne. Ef Maryland for leaving the ACC.

Maryland left because AD Yow got them into a lot of debt with stadium expansion among other things and they needed the Big10 money. Them leaving and forcing the ACC to sue them for the exit fee was at least partially what laid the groundwork for the GOR.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Rutgers is much better now than when they joined the Big, but they were so awful prior that it is hard to notice. Nebraska fell off a cliff when they fired Osborne. Ef Maryland for leaving the ACC.

From 2005 to 2013, the 9 years prior to joining the B1G, Rutgers won 71 games. (7.9 per year) They had one season in that stretch where they did not go to a bowl game. They had an 11 win season, three 9 win seasons, and two 8 win seasons. Since they joined the B1G they won 8 games their first year and have not had a winning season since. The only bowl game since joining in 2014 was in 2021 when they were accepted as a 5-7 team. (They lost the bowl game) They are absolutely not a better team now than when they joined the B1G.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

From 2005 to 2013, the 9 years prior to joining the B1G, Rutgers won 71 games. (7.9 per year) They had one season in that stretch where they did not go to a bowl game. They had an 11 win season, three 9 win seasons, and two 8 win seasons. Since they joined the B1G they won 8 games their first year and have not had a winning season since. The only bowl game since joining in 2014 was in 2021 when they were accepted as a 5-7 team. (They lost the bowl game) They are absolutely not a better team now than when they joined the B1G.

Well, right now, today, I say the 2023 6-2 Rutgers team is better than when they joined in 2014. They were 3-5 in conference that year with five wins out of conference. That was Kyle Flood's second to last year before getting fired. It has taken Schiano a few years, but they are getting close to where they were before he left in 2011.

 

[Techster]

It could be argued that Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland have not improved since joining the BIG.

The funny thing is I think GT would have had much more success than those 3 in the B1G had we left the ACC. Remember, in 2013, that would have been the CPJ years. B1G is very similar to the ACC. 2-3 very good teams, but the rest are all fighting to be the best of the middle of the pack. Rutgers and Maryland were VERY dysfunctional for decades. Their admins and boosters couldn't get out of their own way, which led to on the field issues. Rutgers has finally put it together, and you have to give Greg Schiano some credit there. Rutgers is bowl eligible for the first time since ??? with a 6-2 record. Maryland is 5-2 currently, and they went to a bowl game last year. Those programs, though they might not compete with OSU and Michigan anytime soon, seemed to have turned the corner.

Nebraska is dealing with similar things GT is. They're still fighting to get out of the Tom Osborne shadow (as GT is fighting to get out of the Ross/O'Leary shadow), and they totally whiffed on their savior Scott Frost (to be fair, it looked like one of the best hires at the time...unbeknownst to Nebraska, no one knew Frost enjoyed the nightlife more than spending his nights actually doing his job)...just like GT whiffed on Collins. Nebraska has a lot of resources, so for them it's more a matter of making the right decisions, which they didn't for a long time. Matt Rhule seems to have Nebraska heading in the right direction at 4-2 (2-2 in the B1G).

Programs have to start with good leadership, and good coaching. All three of those schools were pretty bereft of both for a while.

 

[CEB]

From 2005 to 2013, the 9 years prior to joining the B1G, Rutgers won 71 games. (7.9 per year) They had one season in that stretch where they did not go to a bowl game. They had an 11 win season, three 9 win seasons, and two 8 win seasons. Since they joined the B1G they won 8 games their first year and have not had a winning season since. The only bowl game since joining in 2014 was in 2021 when they were accepted as a 5-7 team. (They lost the bowl game) They are absolutely not a better team now than when they joined the B1G.

If I may put a tiny asterisk on this…
Your sample timeframe is possibly the most successful run in their history. In the four seasons prior to your sample, they won 12 games total, had no bowls and no winning seasons… but some very big things happened for them during that time…

Greg Schiano arrived and Miami and Virginia Tech came off the schedule.

Schiano in a depleted Big East was a great run, but Rutgers now looks an awful lot like the Rutgers teams when they were playing in a full strength Big East.

 

[Randy Carson]

I planned on winning that $1.7 billion lottery and paying for our path to the B1G or SEC on the spot.

Sadly, it didn't pan out. I failed you all.

I respect your honesty.

At least now we know who to blame, and that makes going forward a bit easier.

Thank you.

 

[Root4GT]

Well, right now, today, I say the 2023 6-2 Rutgers team is better than when they joined in 2014. They were 3-5 in conference that year with five wins out of conference. That was Kyle Flood's second to last year before getting fired. It has taken Schiano a few years, but they are getting close to where they were before he left in 2011.

Basically Schiano is the coach who won before they joined the B1G and the guy now who is bringing them back to being respectable. They likely would beat GT this year as sad as that is. They have the right coach for their school. I would hope he learned that is the place he should coach as well after bombing other places.

 

[Randy Carson]

I was REALLY hoping for a better season than we are going to have this year, and I fear we may be facing an existential threat due to what I believe is the inevitable demise of the ACC. GOR be damned; simply looking at a map and the current conference alignments suggests that the ACC will be a mere shadow of its former self soon (if not already).

From what we've put on the field this season, it's obvious that the quality of our program is not going to attract any buyers. Our ONLY real selling point is the fact that we're in Atlanta - a huge TV market which would have given the B1G a foot-hold in the heart of SEC country. The SEC has nothing comparable in the B1G's footprint, so this would have been a coup in the superconference power struggle. We've been over this ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

A bowl game this season would have made us even more attractive to the Big 10. It would have demonstrated that we can pull our own weight, so to speak.

Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen, and I'm concerned that our program may continue to flounder making it difficult for the Big 10 to extend an offer to Tech. EVER. And without a massive boost in revenue, NIL money and recruiting cachet, Tech will struggle to compete for talent.

It's a death spiral.

In closing, I don't pin this on CBK or any of the current staff and players, etc. I think the state of the program was far worse than any - well, most - of us realized.

 

[RamblinRed]

I just don't see any real movement between the power conferences for the next couple of years because I don't believe the money is there to pay teams to do it.

No one moving has gotten more than $30M per year over the last year.

If anyone truly wanted to leave right now I don't really think they are likely to get more than they are already getting in the ACC.

 

[bke1984]

The only conference Tech should leave the ACC for us the SEC, but I would only do that if the ACC were falling apart at this point. It would make sense to renew old rivalries, but we’ve got a pretty good situation right now as far as chances to win the conference.

 

[Vespidae]

I think the state of the program was far worse than any - well, most - of us realized.

Maybe.

I look at it compared to other teams. A comparable is Vanderbilt. Since 2004, Vandy has a football win percentage of 0.367. Tech is 0.53 … not far below our long term rate.

Getting our historical win rate is not insurmountable… it’s 7 wins a year with an occasional breakout. The challenge is comparing ourselves to factories which is not a good comparison in 2023.

It’s not great. But it’s not the worst of all times either.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

If I may put a tiny asterisk on this…
Your sample timeframe is possibly the most successful run in their history. In the four seasons prior to your sample, they won 12 games total, had no bowls and no winning seasons… but some very big things happened for them during that time…

Greg Schiano arrived and Miami and Virginia Tech came off the schedule.

Schiano in a depleted Big East was a great run, but Rutgers now looks an awful lot like the Rutgers teams when they were playing in a full strength Big East.

Regardless. Doesn't gel with what was stated.

Rutgers is much better now than when they joined the Big, but they were so awful prior that it is hard to notice.