Conference Realignment

Techster

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If we're going to take Cal and Stanford, then at least go steal whoever we want from the Big 12 and destroy them

I believe the Big12 have GOR similar to the ACC's...or something that makes it financially prohibitive to move immediately.

 

Vespidae

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There is only one reason to pursue Stanford. And that’s to lure ND. No other reason.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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I believe the Big12 have GOR similar to the ACC's...or something that makes it financially prohibitive to move immediately.


Big-XIIs GoR expires in 2024. We could theoretically poach a team as long as they announce they will not resign the GOR in 2024, similar to what Texas and Oklahoma did. They paid big money to leave early.

Edit: I am not sure there are many Big-XII teams left that would move the needle that much anyways.
 

Techster

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Big-XIIs GoR expires in 2024. We could theoretically poach a team as long as they announce they will not resign the GOR in 2024, similar to what Texas and Oklahoma did. They paid big money to leave early.

Edit: I am not sure there are many Big-XII teams left that would move the needle that much anyways.

The move for the ACC years ago should have been:

Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah (+/- one or two of those schools). Even if the ACC remained the same financially in terms of per school share, that would have created a compelling 3rd national "Power 3" conference...even before the Big 12 made the move for other schools. Given that ESPN no longer is paying for the PAC12, this goes to my play of eliminating the money to one conference, and investing more into a conference that is making you money. Now you're investing money into a conference that will have compelling coast to coast matchups in football and basketball.

It would give the ACC a West Coast presence so a small number of schools would not have been out on an island. Go to 10 game conference schedule and increase compelling matchup inventory.

Of course, I think FOX/B1G moved on Washington and Oregon precisely because the B1G and Fox wanted to keep those schools for eventual national conference plans. Whatever arrangement the ACC makes with any new schools I believe is temporary. There is no way the ACC hangs on to all the current members once the GOR has expired.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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The move for the ACC years ago should have been:

Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah (+/- one or two of those schools). Even if the ACC remained the same financially in terms of per school share, that would have created a compelling 3rd national "Power 3" conference...even before the Big 12 made the move for other schools. Given that ESPN no longer is paying for the PAC12, this goes to my play of eliminating the money to one conference, and investing more into a conference that is making you money. Now you're investing money into a conference that will have compelling coast to coast matchups in football and basketball.

It would give the ACC a West Coast presence so a small number of schools would not have been out on an island. Go to 10 game conference schedule and increase compelling matchup inventory.

Of course, I think FOX/B1G moved on Washington and Oregon precisely because the B1G and Fox wanted to keep those schools for eventual national conference plans. Whatever arrangement the ACC makes with any new schools I believe is temporary. There is no way the ACC hangs on to all the current members once the GOR has expired.

We will see. A lot can happen in 13 years.
 

Techster

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We will see. A lot can happen in 13 years.

A lot could happen. I just don't see how the ACC closes the revenue gap between them and the SEC/B1G when those monster conference comes to raid the ACC once the GOR wall has fallen. FSU/Clemson/UNC/VT/Miami have all publicly stated the revenue gap is untenable for them. Most of those schools (and I think GT) will be a hot commodity once the GOR gets worked out. What will the ACC have to offer at that point?
 

GTNavyNuke

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Amid the last round of conference realignment that rocked the college sports world, Rick Pitino took to social media to share his thoughts. The former Kentucky and Louisville basketball coach, currently at St. John’s, asked his followers on X, “Doesn’t it make more sense for football to break away to separate leagues and allow the rest of the sports to compete regionally? Rivalries remain (and) minor sports don’t spend half their day looking for bad food at airport restaurants!!!”

100%. I have little interest in regular baseball series on the West Coast. Plus for all the sports, the 3 hour time lag is a big home field advantage (both ways I know).

This is just another demonstration of how it is football money ruling these moves and no regard for most of the student-athletes (the vast SA majority don't get NIL and don't play football or basketball).
 

wrmathis

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A lot could happen. I just don't see how the ACC closes the revenue gap between them and the SEC/B1G when those monster conference comes to raid the ACC once the GOR wall has fallen. FSU/Clemson/UNC/VT/Miami have all publicly stated the revenue gap is untenable for them. Most of those schools (and I think GT) will be a hot commodity once the GOR gets worked out. What will the ACC have to offer at that point?
there is also a good chance that money isnt there to even worry about poaching teams. fox/espn/cbs/nbc might not even want to pay current prices by then
 

bobongo

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100%. I have little interest in regular baseball series on the West Coast. Plus for all the sports, the 3 hour time lag is a big home field advantage (both ways I know).

This is just another demonstration of how it is football money ruling these moves and no regard for most of the student-athletes (the vast SA majority don't get NIL and don't play football or basketball).
Stanford is 2,462 miles away.
 

cpf2001

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A lot could happen. I just don't see how the ACC closes the revenue gap between them and the SEC/B1G when those monster conference comes to raid the ACC once the GOR wall has fallen. FSU/Clemson/UNC/VT/Miami have all publicly stated the revenue gap is untenable for them. Most of those schools (and I think GT) will be a hot commodity once the GOR gets worked out. What will the ACC have to offer at that point?
How many of those justify the next set of Big 10 or SEC rates? Once you’re into the UNC, VT, Miami group I don’t know if any of them are full-share teams like UT, OU, USC. They are all upgrades to the Big 12, but will the Big 12 be an upgrade to them?

Maybe the Big 10 or SEC would be looking for depth and breadth more in six years, maybe not.

Or maybe some current schools get shown the door?
 

RamblinRed

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Big-XIIs GoR expires in 2024. We could theoretically poach a team as long as they announce they will not resign the GOR in 2024, similar to what Texas and Oklahoma did. They paid big money to leave early.

Edit: I am not sure there are many Big-XII teams left that would move the needle that much anyways.
They have a new one tied to their new media contracts. Basically they have a GoR to the end of the decade.

Those believing that the ACC is going to end once the GoR expires are making the same assumptions that most fans are making - whoever goes to the SEC or B1G are getting full shares.
The last couple of weeks have shown that to be a fallacy. There may be a couple of schools that will be able to get full shares, but frankly I think alot of schools would have to take less than full shares to change conferences. It does not appear the market will allow for all schools to change with full new shares.

To me it no longer looks like the money is there for unlimited growth in media contracts.

It will be very interesting to see where we are at the end of the decade - when the B1G and B12 contracts are up for renewal. Has more money been uncovered or are we in a more austere environment.

No one should make the assumption that the next contract will be higher than the previous contract. That will depend upon the environment when the contracts are up and who is interested in the conferences.

I expect the ACC to exist in 2036, who will be in it and what type of media contract it can get I couldn't even imagine right now. I doubt all the current members will be in it, but I also don't think half the teams are heading to other conferences. Not at their current share levels.
 

cpf2001

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You know, things just never seem to become less expensive
They can at the end of bubbles. HBO Max and Hulu and I think others have pulled some of their TV shows off the services entirely since they had fixed royalty costs and weren’t as popular as expected. A lot can happen before the next rounds of deals come up in six years or so, but everything recent (Bally, PAC 12, even the Big 12 deal isn’t that great for being newer than the ACC one) suggests money is drying up.
 

RamblinRed

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FWIW, I could see Stanford being valuable to the ACC as a piece with Notre Dame.


This is an interesting opinion piece from the Washington Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...onference-realignment-ncaa-college-athletics/

If you cannot read it the 2 biggest items imo are the following:

"The athletes GET PAID either directly from the marketers of the products they endorse or by what are curiously called “NIL collectives,” funds begun in every college town by local businesspeople and other well-heeled folks who function as booster clubs for the hometown team. The collective workaround is so well enshrined that the IRS plans to ensure that these backdoor subsidizer groups don’t claim tax-exempt status. "

"But nothing will change the game more dramatically than a bill making its way through the California legislature that would require Division 1 schools in the state to set aside 50 percent of the revenue they generate from lucrative television contracts and other sources to be paid as much as $25,000 a year to players."

"Colleges, naturally, already are howling at this prospect. The millions they make from TV deals pay for coaches, administrators, and a vast array of facilities and factotums who work there, and all that would be jeopardized by a requirement to pay the actual athletes. "

"Holden’s measure is simple in design if more complicated in execution. After the required revenue set aside goes to the money-sports players, a review board would determine how to allocate what’s left for other athletes. The bill would allow athletes to earn money over a six-year period — a nod to the challenges true student-athletes face going to school — and only if they graduate. Holden also addressed a concern that his bill would weaken Title IX, the law that prohibits discrimination against women’s sports, by requiring that payments be shared equally with male and female athletes — after the money-sport players get theirs."

"It’s difficult to overstate how influential a bill such as this coming out of Sacramento would be for the future of all college athletics. The original name-image-likeness legislation was enacted in California, validated by the U.S. Supreme Court, and then quickly copied around the country."


Both of those have significant potential implications for revenue for schools.
If collectives are not tax deductible, unlike AA's, that reduces the new funds available as taxes will have to be accounted for with any moneys received.
If the bill in CA becomes law, SA's would almost certainly immediately try to make sure it gets expanded through negotiations or the courts. The potential to having to save 50% of TV revenue for athletes is a real game changer. That completely changes the economics of the entire enterprise. First off, it simply greatly reduces the amount of money AA's will have to pay coaches, staff, employees, etc.
But it also flattens the revenue differences between conferences.
In the most recent financial statements ACC schools received about $39M, SEC schools $49M and B1G schools $59M. If each school has to save 50% of its TV revenue to pay athletes, then that means effectively their TV revenue streams are now $19.5M, $24.5M, and $29.5M. B12 would be $15.4M.
 
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