Conference Realignment

[Techwood Relict]

It was previously a relevant factor. Don’t know if it matters now. I haven’t seen any speculation about research dollars during the recent realignment/expansion talks.

This is a hot take response, but wouldn't there be a certain irony to our joining the B10 bc of the Hill's clout (research $$) after our collective board opinion of their combative existence with the AA, and not bc of our athletic history. It does strike me as a very Tech outcome.

 

[g0lftime]

I just don't see UNC, Duke, Wake and NCSU leaving the ACC at this time unless the GOR falls apart. NCSU might be more inclined to bolt just because they have such dislike of UNC and their belief that the ACC office favors UNC. Rivalries are one issue but we are in a different conference and still play a game with our rival, albeit just for bragging rights. The NC schools can schedule each other as OOC. With that said, I don't believe the ACC is falling apart just yet.
What would be interesting is GT, Miami, Clemson, UNC, UVA to the B1G. It stretches the footprint down the East coast into major markets. FSU and VT to SEC. Not sure where Cuse BC Duke and Wake would end up if the ACC dissolves.
The ACC still has basketball power so that alone may keep it together.
I didn't include ND because as far as I'm concerned they are not really an ACC member without FB included and they are going to do what the priesthood wants them to do independently, even though the ACC has bent over backwards to accommodate them.

 

[bobongo]

This is a hot take response, but wouldn't there be a certain irony to our joining the B10 bc of the Hill's clout (research $$) after our collective board opinion of their combative existence with the AA, and not bc of our athletic history. It does strike me as a very Tech outcome.

It would be ironic and serendipitous.

 

[RamblinRed]

I'm not really expecting much more movement until we get closer to the CFP expiring. Probably around 2024-2025.

IMO any P5 movement for the next 2 years is likely to PAC and B12 related and most likely them trying to raid each other as both have TV contract negotiations coming up (PAC's media rights expire in 2024 and B12 in 2025).

I don't expect SEC or B10 to try to poach any teams from the ACC in the short term. It is likely financially prohibitive right now for any ACC team to bolt or for any conference to take them in.
Note that the 4 big schools that are going to switch conferences are all doing so after their conference GoR expires (even though they only have a couple of years left).

B10 seems pretty happy to stand pat until they see what ND does. I expect as the PAC GoR ends they make another run at ND and see if it changes its mind.

For the ACC the exit fee is an escalating cost. It is 3X the annual conference distribution (so for 2021 this would be $96MM) plus of course unless you win a court case you and your new conference get no money from televising your games until 2036 (which would amount to multiple hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade+).

 

[LongforDodd]

A Wolverine's view:

https://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/lists/big-ten-conference-expansion-what-schools-could-it-add/

As has been pointed out, the BiG attaches a bit more importance to a school's educational credentials than does the SEC.

It doesn't even mention the institutional academic qualities we have to offer but being mentioned No.3 behind ND and Stanford makes me feel a little better about our chances.

 

[Randy Carson]

While I agree with what you say overall, there is indeed one advantage to being in the city of Atlanta. It is home to massive Big Ten alumni groups. These groups really can't get to most games in the current Big Ten footprint, but would show up in droves (and watch games in large numbers) in Atlanta.

^This.

So, the TV market is huge, the B1G alumni base is going to turn out for games in our crib, and there's not much (immediate) chance of us upsetting the power structure of the conference. And despite all our recent troubles, Tech is still a nationally recognized brand name (Heisman, 222-0, etc.).

What's not to love about adding Tech to the conference line-up?

 

[first&ten]

I'm not really expecting much more movement until we get closer to the CFP expiring. Probably around 2024-2025.

IMO any P5 movement for the next 2 years is likely to PAC and B12 related and most likely them trying to raid each other as both have TV contract negotiations coming up (PAC's media rights expire in 2024 and B12 in 2025).

I don't expect SEC or B10 to try to poach any teams from the ACC in the short term. It is likely financially prohibitive right now for any ACC team to bolt or for any conference to take them in.
Note that the 4 big schools that are going to switch conferences are all doing so after their conference GoR expires (even though they only have a couple of years left).

B10 seems pretty happy to stand pat until they see what ND does. I expect as the PAC GoR ends they make another run at ND and see if it changes its mind.

For the ACC the exit fee is an escalating cost. It is 3X the annual conference distribution (so for 2021 this would be $96MM) plus of course unless you win a court case you and your new conference get no money from televising your games until 2036 (which would amount to multiple hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade+).

 

[first&ten]

With a financial burden like that, I just don't see any ACC schools leaving, let alone Tech.

 

[CEB]

I'm not really expecting much more movement until we get closer to the CFP expiring. Probably around 2024-2025.

IMO any P5 movement for the next 2 years is likely to PAC and B12 related and most likely them trying to raid each other as both have TV contract negotiations coming up (PAC's media rights expire in 2024 and B12 in 2025).

I don't expect SEC or B10 to try to poach any teams from the ACC in the short term. It is likely financially prohibitive right now for any ACC team to bolt or for any conference to take them in.
Note that the 4 big schools that are going to switch conferences are all doing so after their conference GoR expires (even though they only have a couple of years left).

B10 seems pretty happy to stand pat until they see what ND does. I expect as the PAC GoR ends they make another run at ND and see if it changes its mind.

For the ACC the exit fee is an escalating cost. It is 3X the annual conference distribution (so for 2021 this would be $96MM) plus of course unless you win a court case you and your new conference get no money from televising your games until 2036 (which would amount to multiple hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade+).

I agree with this completely. All of the fans have an unrealistic sense of urgency and they’re all spinning fantastical tales of how GOR has no teeth and will magically go away because Tx, OU, USC, and UCLA all got around it.... but they didn’t!
MAYBE another school is announced sooner if ND concedes. For what it’s worth, I think ND has a vested interest in GOR... even if it’s only a stall tactic. Realistically, I don’t see ACC moves announced for about 10 years. Even if something is announced at that time, it will take effect after GOR expires in ‘36. They’ll announce a few years earlier so they can start working on future scheduling.

 

[CEB]

I’ll add that I would expect the BIG to extend their deal through 2036 so they can start negotiation talks with ACC teams in full play.
The only way something would happen quicker is if the BIG and Fox value an ACC team(s) enough to sign a deal now for full entry later and structure their deal to increase once said teams come on board. That tactic would tell you if the BIG feels like the value today is greater than the value in 2036.

 

[g0lftime]

I'm not really expecting much more movement until we get closer to the CFP expiring. Probably around 2024-2025.

IMO any P5 movement for the next 2 years is likely to PAC and B12 related and most likely them trying to raid each other as both have TV contract negotiations coming up (PAC's media rights expire in 2024 and B12 in 2025).

I don't expect SEC or B10 to try to poach any teams from the ACC in the short term. It is likely financially prohibitive right now for any ACC team to bolt or for any conference to take them in.
Note that the 4 big schools that are going to switch conferences are all doing so after their conference GoR expires (even though they only have a couple of years left).

B10 seems pretty happy to stand pat until they see what ND does. I expect as the PAC GoR ends they make another run at ND and see if it changes its mind.

For the ACC the exit fee is an escalating cost. It is 3X the annual conference distribution (so for 2021 this would be $96MM) plus of course unless you win a court case you and your new conference get no money from televising your games until 2036 (which would amount to multiple hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade+).

As far as I'm concerned, ND still owes GT $1M to buy out O'Leary's contract which they said they would pay and then didn't. We should have sued them. Wouldn't surprise me to see them leave the ACC all together and then refuse to pay GOR for the other sports.

 

[slugboy]

For everybody's information
GOR = "Grant of Rights" = ACC member schools all temporarily transferred ownership of their media rights to the conference.

GOR isn't the payouts or anything else. It's simply the transfer of ownership of each school's TV and streaming licensing rights to the conference (i.e. the right to broadcast games. When you see the "This broadcast is property of the ACC", GOR is related to that).

An analogy is that 14 homeowners own land in North Dakota. They transfer their "mineral rights" on their land for 10 years to an oil company (CheapOilCo) that drills for oil, fraks for gas, etc. The oil company sends each household a check.
There's another oil company in the next county over that's paying twice as much for mineral rights. The 14 homeowners can't swap to the other oil company until their current contract runs out, because they don't own the thing of value--the mineral rights.

 

[GT_05]

For everybody's information
GOR = "Grant of Rights" = ACC member schools all temporarily transferred ownership of their media rights to the conference.

GOR isn't the payouts or anything else. It's simply the transfer of ownership of each school's TV and streaming licensing rights to the conference (i.e. the right to broadcast games. When you see the "This broadcast is property of the ACC", GOR is related to that).

An analogy is that 14 homeowners own land in North Dakota. They transfer their "mineral rights" on their land for 10 years to an oil company (CheapOilCo) that drills for oil, fraks for gas, etc. The oil company sends each household a check.
There's another oil company in the next county over that's paying twice as much for mineral rights. The 14 homeowners can't swap to the other oil company until their current contract runs out, because they don't own the thing of value--the mineral rights.

Contracts can be amended if all parties are in agreement. The homeowners could go to Cheap Oil Co. and say, “We estimate that your mineral rights are worth $X over Y years. Would you accept $X*Y in a lump sum?” Or a good negotiator, knowing lump sums are attractive, could offer ($X*Y)/Z. Cheap Oil may think, “Thank goodness. We are losing money on this property.” or they could say “No thanks.”

 

[Techster]

For everybody's information
GOR = "Grant of Rights" = ACC member schools all temporarily transferred ownership of their media rights to the conference.

GOR isn't the payouts or anything else. It's simply the transfer of ownership of each school's TV and streaming licensing rights to the conference (i.e. the right to broadcast games. When you see the "This broadcast is property of the ACC", GOR is related to that).

An analogy is that 14 homeowners own land in North Dakota. They transfer their "mineral rights" on their land for 10 years to an oil company (CheapOilCo) that drills for oil, fraks for gas, etc. The oil company sends each household a check.
There's another oil company in the next county over that's paying twice as much for mineral rights. The 14 homeowners can't swap to the other oil company until their current contract runs out, because they don't own the thing of value--the mineral rights.

From what I understand, GOR can be voided if ACC dissolves. That is the nuclear option for teams that I want out. In fact, ESPN was pushing for the Big 12 to dissolve so UT and OU could move on from their Big 12 contractual obligations.

Let's face it, there will be a revenue gap of 50+ million/year per team for the "haves" compared to the "have nots" in the next decade, and there are some forecasts that it could be $80-$100 million difference. That is what is precipitating all of these marquee blue blood names from leaving conferences they were founding members in. The $50-$100 million question is does UNC/Clemson/UVA/FSU/Miami/GT/Duke/ND...teams often associated with other conferences have enough sway to pull it off if the SEC/B1G tells them they have spot for them. B1G and SEC teams are already making $20+ million more per team than any other conference, and that gap for is expected to become a chasm.

Teams like UNC/Clemson/Miami/FSU are definitely looking at the SEC and B1G teams with envy. No way their mega donors and fans want to be in the tier of "have nots" losing that kind of revenue and elite level recruits...and that could tip them to push the red nuclear button.

 

[BuzzDraft]

Except once the classifications are set I don't see schools moving between them.
No relegation here.

If we end up in AAA then great. If not we will end up in AA and that is fine with me as well, and frankly really probably what we are from a college football standpoint.

Actually, your idea is more analogous to Minor League Baseball, and a very appropriate analogy.

Single A, Double A, and Triple A level baseball leagues and teams are the player development feeder leagues for the top level of the sport, MLB. Just like your A, AA, and AAA level college football leagues are the player development feeder leagues for the NFL. Teams don't move up or down in an anual relegation, but the players flow up and down very much like the transfer portal in college football. The only difference is it isn't a "farm system" since college teams would have no direct affiliation to a specific NFL team. The draft and free agency make those connections.

 

[RonJohn]

From what I understand, GOR can be voided if ACC dissolves. That is the nuclear option for teams that I want out. In fact, ESPN was pushing for the Big 12 to dissolve so UT and OU could move on from their Big 12 contractual obligations.

I haven't seen the language of the current GOR contract, but the previous one said that it could only be voided if every current member of the conference agrees to void it. I am not a lawyer, but it seems that that would take every member signing a contract to void it or the conference dissolving. If the ACC doesn't exist anymore, then there is no owner of the rights. There would probably be legal work that would have to be done to separate the property of the ACC including the media rights of each school.

Then again, there could be other ways to get around the contract. In one of the articles linked to in the thread a contract lawyer said that if he were preparing a document to combine the GORs to the conference and ensure all contingencies were addressed it would take 50-70 pages. The previous GOR document, which the new one is supposedly based on was somewhere between 3 and 5 pages.

 

[RonJohn]

For everybody's information
GOR = "Grant of Rights" = ACC member schools all temporarily transferred ownership of their media rights to the conference.

GOR isn't the payouts or anything else. It's simply the transfer of ownership of each school's TV and streaming licensing rights to the conference (i.e. the right to broadcast games. When you see the "This broadcast is property of the ACC", GOR is related to that).

People are seeming to get the conference buyout and the GOR confused and conflated. As I understand it the conference buyout is three times the current conference payout. That means that if a team leaves they have to pay the conference 3 * approximately $30 million. So they would have to pay the conference $90 million to leave. IN ADDITION, that school would not own the media rights to their games until 2036.

I have also seen people conflate the new conference payout with the GOR. I don't think the GOR would mean that any money the Big10 paid to a former ACC school would go to the ACC. It would mean that the ACC would broadcast all of the games controlled by the former ACC team. (i.e. Northwestern at GT would be broadcast on the ACC Netowrk, and the ACC would get the money for that game) It would basically mean that the former ACC team would bring zero media money to the Big10. That makes ACC teams a lot less attractive because they can't bring any money into the conference.

 

[billga99]

A couple of links to articles about GOR. The first link says if ESPN dissolves their contract with the ACC, that might collapse the GOR. Of course, no one knows how easy it would be for ESPN to torpedo the contract and how much legal risk they would be at if they attempted to do that.

https://swimswam.com/what-is-the-acc-grant-of-rights-and-why-does-it-matter/

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/article263209048.html

 

[bigrabbit]

I’ve read that some number of ACC schools leaving would void the GOR agreement - I’ve read the magic number is either 6 or 8 leaving. Anybody know that number for sure?

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

In regards to the GOR, you'd be a fool to think that lawyers for ACC schools aren't looking it over for loopholes. Once they've found it, and have built a strong enough case, that's when you'll see schools start to accept invitations to either the B1G or $EC. I don't remember exactly where it is, but I recall reading an article recently stating that one of the reasons that the ACC hasn't moved much is due to no school wanting to be the first to run to the courthouse. I say, if you've got good enough lawyers and a good enough offer, somebody's got to be the first.

Edit: Found the article, FYI requires a ESPN+ subscription to read.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...latest-college-football-realignment-questions

"Ultimately, the ACC's binding grant of rights running congruent to the television deal that expires in 2036 is seemingly going to take ugly and aggressive legal action for schools to escape from. No one appears likely to be the first to run to the courthouse."