Conference Realignment

[UgaBlows]

FSU doesn't buy as much as it would have 5 years ago. They are in a small market (Tallahassee) and the SEC already has Florida. Miami would make more sense based on the population of South Florida. Though I am sure Florida wouldn't be happy adding either Miami or FSU (or both). In terms of whether the Big Ten wants a South presence, the Southeast is certainly a lot closer than the West Coast. In fact, Atlanta is nearly as close to the Big Ten Schools as NJ or MD. This is all about revenue and whichever schools will add to the payout per team. If it doesn't, I don't see why either the SEC or Big Ten would add additional teams. The West Coast teams still appear to make the most sense for the next moves. Bay Area and Seattle are bigger markets and would allow the Big Ten to form a Western Division. TV rights for every P5 conference other than the ACC will be over/renewed no later than 2025. I would expect all of the movement of those 4 conferences will be decided by then.

If the SEC takes FSU and Clemson then it’s to get fb factory quality matchups, not for the market area. Although I have to believe a lot of South GA and the panhandle are full of FSU fans, and there are a ton of CU fans in GA and ATL area.

 

[RamblinRed]

Big surprise, there apparently is no truth to the SwimSwam rumor that ACC schools are negotiating with the SEC



If you read alot of the swimswam article it suggests that Swimming is partially driving the bus on this.

Don't pay attention to the kooks who post most of this stuff - other than for sh*ts and giggles. Look for good sources. It wasn't kook sources that first reported USC and UCLA, it was well respected journalists.

 

[RonJohn]

Don't pay attention to the kooks who post most of this stuff - other than for sh*ts and giggles. Look for good sources. It wasn't kook sources that first reported USC and UCLA, it was well respected journalists.

I would go even further than that. Don't believe ANY sources about further conference expansion unless you see a press conference with ADs making announcements. That goes for anybody who posts that ConfA is negotiating with TeamX or anybody who posts that expansion is over for now.

 

[RamblinRed]

Here is some actual useful data when discussing this topic.

This article has avg viewership for each school from 2015-2019


From the same author - info on avg viewership for 2021. This is actually helpful to get a sense of which teams are improving their viewership and which one aren't.

 

[stech81]

Here is some actual useful data when discussing this topic.

This article has avg viewership for each school from 2015-2019


From the same author - info on avg viewership for 2021. This is actually helpful to get a sense of which teams are improving their viewership and which one aren't.

We are going to need more fans with a TV .

 

[Randy Carson]

Teasing this out a bit more...

1. Early on, GT offers the B1G the #7 TV market for its members which adds to its exposure in the top markets nationwide. That translates into more TV revenue.
2. Additionally, Tech is no real threat to win a game against the flagship programs. That translates into easy conference wins for the B1G dogs.
3. I don't see Tech as a threat to recruit kids away from Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. Our turf is the Southeast, and we are not going to be poaching stars from the B1G schools.
4. Furthermore, as Tech begins to rebuild its program, we might actually siphon off a few key players from Alabama, Georgia and Clemson. This would make the BIG contenders happy.
5. Finally, playing at Bobby Dodd or the GA Dome gives the teams from the frozen north a chance to play a warm weather game from time to time.

We have one drawing card that may interest one potential buyer. Otherwise, we're playing ECU, Coastal Carolina, and the rest of the also-rans.

 

[UgaBlows]

Big surprise, there apparently is no truth to the SwimSwam rumor that ACC schools are negotiating with the SEC



If you read alot of the swimswam article it suggests that Swimming is partially driving the bus on this.

Don't pay attention to the kooks who post most of this stuff - other than for sh*ts and giggles. Look for good sources. It wasn't kook sources that first reported USC and UCLA, it was well respected journalists.

To be fair you can fully expect adamant denials by all parties involved until way after it’s a done deal

 

[UgaBlows]

Don’t forget we have TONS of research dollars to join in with the consortium the original B1G and Uchicago already have established.

Is this a factor that the BIG Takes into consideration? Could play in our favor.

 

[ChicagobasedJacket]

Is this a factor that the BIG Takes into consideration? Could play in our favor.

It was previously a relevant factor. Don’t know if it matters now. I haven’t seen any speculation about research dollars during the recent realignment/expansion talks.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

The order of teams to see based on interest level:

Wisconsin
Iowa
Nebraska
Louisville
Northwestern
Purdue
Rutgers
Wake Forest
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland

100% agree on these Top Two! I’d put Mich and Penn States up there. I’m guessing interest in Michigan and OhioState is a given?

hell, I’d take any Big10 just to see the Marching Bands!

 

[RamblinRed]

Teasing this out a bit more...

1. Early on, GT offers the B1G the #7 TV market for its members which adds to its exposure in the top markets nationwide. That translates into more TV revenue.
2. Additionally, Tech is no real threat to win a game against the flagship programs. That translates into easy conference wins for the B1G dogs.
3. I don't see Tech as a threat to recruit kids away from Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. Our turf is the Southeast, and we are not going to be poaching stars from the B1G schools.
4. Furthermore, as Tech begins to rebuild its program, we might actually siphon off a few key players from Alabama, Georgia and Clemson. This would make the BIG contenders happy.
5. Finally, playing at Bobby Dodd or the GA Dome gives the teams from the frozen north a chance to play a warm weather game from time to time.

We have one drawing card that may interest one potential buyer. Otherwise, we're playing ECU, Coastal Carolina, and the rest of the also-rans.

This last sentence is the doom and gloom fallacy that everyone likes to say but isn't true.
It isn't like every P5 team except GT is going to end up in the Big 2. Realistically probably 36-40 will and another 30-35 will not. If you end up in the not, then you are likely playing those other 30-35 teams for most of your games - and they are largely the same teams GT plays now.

 

[GSOJacket]

A Wolverine's view:

https://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/lists/big-ten-conference-expansion-what-schools-could-it-add/

As has been pointed out, the BiG attaches a bit more importance to a school's educational credentials than does the SEC.

 

[gdamian]

I know it's unlikely to happen but what would have to happen for a school to be kicked out of the ACC? Wouldn't a smaller conference of Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, NC State, UNC, UVA, and VT and maybe even joining forces with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal create a lot more revenue per team?

How much does Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and BC really make for the conference? Duke football is a total drain. And Wake Forest brings nothing.

Hell, why does the SEC keep Vanderbilt around?

Vandy has valuable real estate. I can't imagine why they would want to stay in a league where they can expect to be beaten 50-0 week after week. They should sell their spot to the highest bidder.

 

[gdamian]

I find it interesting here that people still place so much value on the city of Atlanta. I live in Phoenix and could really give two thoughts about AZ State. Nobody here cares about that school unless you have an attachment to it. I suspect the same is true for most of the schools in large metro areas. The big 2 are looking for big brands with big followings. GT certainly does not have the second and the first is debatable.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

I find it interesting here that people still place so much value on the city of Atlanta. I live in Phoenix and could really give two thoughts about AZ State. Nobody here cares about that school unless you have an attachment to it. I suspect the same is true for most of the schools in large metro areas. The big 2 are looking for big brands with big followings. GT certainly does not have the second and the first is debatable.

The B1G wants to recruit the South. Playing games in the south helps that. There's a **** ton of talent in Georgia/Atlanta. Big TV market also helps

 

[RonJohn]

I find it interesting here that people still place so much value on the city of Atlanta. I live in Phoenix and could really give two thoughts about AZ State. Nobody here cares about that school unless you have an attachment to it. I suspect the same is true for most of the schools in large metro areas. The big 2 are looking for big brands with big followings. GT certainly does not have the second and the first is debatable.

TV contracts are still mainly based on TV households, far less on eyes on the channels or games. The details aren't public, but the rumor when the SECNetwork started was that each subscriber in an SEC area paid $1.40 per month for the channel. TV subscribers in other areas paid much less, something like 25 cents. The SECNetwork gets more than $3 million per month from the Atlanta TV market alone. Currently the SEC is in two of the top 10 markets.(Atlanta and Houston) The Big10 is in 4.(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Washington) After TX/OK and USC/UCLA each of them will pick up another top 10 market. (Dallas-SEC, LA-Big10) If the Big10 were to add Stanford, GT, and Rice they would have eight of the top 10 TV markets. Simply having those markets upped to an in-conference level could add $15-20 million per month to the conference revenue. (I don't have any real thoughts that they might go after Rice, I'm just looking at the money.)(LA is about double the other three markets)

Eyeballs on games will become important in the future. The PAC12 network never took off, so you probably don't see it out there, but a grandmother around Atlanta that only watches soap operas on weekday afternoons is still paying more than $1.40 for the SEC Network. Fox, ESPN, and the conferences are going to keep getting money from the majority of people who never watch college football for as long as they can. While they still can, having a team in the Atlanta market can provide $3-5 million per month even if not a single person in Atlanta watches that team.

 

[iopjacket]

A Wolverine's view:

https://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/lists/big-ten-conference-expansion-what-schools-could-it-add/

As has been pointed out, the BiG attaches a bit more importance to a school's educational credentials than does the SEC.

I like this list just because we are number 3 after Notre Dame and Stanford to the Big 10. If we get some additional funding for our Athletic Department, we may dig ourselves out of the hole we have fallen into.

 

[1979jacket]

Here is some actual useful data when discussing this topic.

This article has avg viewership for each school from 2015-2019


From the same author - info on avg viewership for 2021. This is actually helpful to get a sense of which teams are improving their viewership and which one aren't.

That's not very encouraging

 

[gdamian]

TV contracts are still mainly based on TV households, far less on eyes on the channels or games. The details aren't public, but the rumor when the SECNetwork started was that each subscriber in an SEC area paid $1.40 per month for the channel. TV subscribers in other areas paid much less, something like 25 cents. The SECNetwork gets more than $3 million per month from the Atlanta TV market alone. Currently the SEC is in two of the top 10 markets.(Atlanta and Houston) The Big10 is in 4.(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Washington) After TX/OK and USC/UCLA each of them will pick up another top 10 market. (Dallas-SEC, LA-Big10) If the Big10 were to add Stanford, GT, and Rice they would have eight of the top 10 TV markets. Simply having those markets upped to an in-conference level could add $15-20 million per month to the conference revenue. (I don't have any real thoughts that they might go after Rice, I'm just looking at the money.)(LA is about double the other three markets)

Eyeballs on games will become important in the future. The PAC12 network never took off, so you probably don't see it out there, but a grandmother around Atlanta that only watches soap operas on weekday afternoons is still paying more than $1.40 for the SEC Network. Fox, ESPN, and the conferences are going to keep getting money from the majority of people who never watch college football for as long as they can. While they still can, having a team in the Atlanta market can provide $3-5 million per month even if not a single person in Atlanta watches that team.

Thanks for the perspective

 

[MWBATL]

I find it interesting here that people still place so much value on the city of Atlanta. I live in Phoenix and could really give two thoughts about AZ State. Nobody here cares about that school unless you have an attachment to it. I suspect the same is true for most of the schools in large metro areas. The big 2 are looking for big brands with big followings. GT certainly does not have the second and the first is debatable.

While I agree with what you say overall, there is indeed one advantage to being in the city of Atlanta. It is home to massive Big Ten alumni groups. These groups really can't get to most games in the current Big Ten footprint, but would show up in droves (and watch games in large numbers) in Atlanta.