Conference Realignment

[CEB]

Feel the need to post that I have been absolutely wrong about the collapse of the ACC, back earlier in the year I said we would know by season beginning the direction the imploding ACC would take, probably not where every school would end up but some idea of what was going to happen. Well the season is here and everything is pretty much where it was back then and not much indication of any change in that. Although I have not been keeping up with realignmeny like I was, so maybe there is a little more going on than I know about but obviously nothing substantial or even I would know about it.

If you want to have a successful online presence the first rule is to never admit that you were wrong. Everything is going exactly to plan, just like you and your insiders predicted. Food for thought.

 

[stinger 1957]

If you want to have a successful online presence the first rule is to never admit that you were wrong. Everything is going exactly to plan, just like you and your insiders predicted. Food for thought.

I've never done life that way, it's important that I own "my stuff", right or wrong. It's worked pretty good for me and that is the only one i can speak for.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I've never done life that way, it's important that I own "my stuff", right or wrong. It's worked pretty good for me and that is the only one i can speak for.

Don’t worry. The ACC is absolutely going to die. The GOR tied to 2036 while maybe good intentioned when signed also locked the ACC into an unknown death spiral. Now, a few short years later our top 2 teams are suing to get out and several others are surely having back channel discussions for a landing spot. The ACC will not exist in any fashion like it has. Sure, they could replace GT, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Clemson with other schools but that’s not the ACC in my view. I expect it to happen within 4 years when they expand the playoffs again.

 

[CEB]

I've never done life that way, it's important that I own "my stuff", right or wrong. It's worked pretty good for me and that is the only one i can speak for.

Congrats!
You’re too good for the internet…
That’s a good thing!

 

[FredJacket]

It will never go away. The best description of SEC bias is the preseason ranking. This year, there are 9 teams in the top 25. In a few weeks, 7 or 8 of these teams will start their season 3-0 and be ranked in the Top 15.

Now, once SEC conference games get underway, these become “ranked matchups” and will be advertised as marquee games in which the winner gets a huge ranked win, and the loser doesn’t see a huge drop since it was an acceptable loss.

The result? The SEC will always be able to keep multiple teams in the Top 20, and ‘upsets’ will show the league’s depth. This creates the narrative that everyone hates. And that affects how everyone views the game.

If you want to change the bias, you have to change the preseason rankings AND how the first games are scheduled. Both of which will never happen.

Look at the ACC. Multiple conference games occur early, guaranteeing an early exit from the top 20.

Agree with your greater point. Preseason rankings establish a floor way too high for the SEC.

However... there are some of those ranked SEC teams playing (non-cupcakes) in early season. If they (SEC) win those games, their resumes are building (rightly so).

ETA... The question is how does the SEC team losing hurt them or help the team/conference that beats the SEC team?

UGA - Clemson
A&M - Notre Dame
LSU - USCw
Texas - Michigan
Tenn - NC State
Alabama - Wisconsin

 

[orientalnc]

Don’t worry. The ACC is absolutely going to die. The GOR tied to 2036 while maybe good intentioned when signed also locked the ACC into an unknown death spiral. Now, a few short years later our top 2 teams are suing to get out and several others are surely having back channel discussions for a landing spot. The ACC will not exist in any fashion like it has. Sure, they could replace GT, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Clemson with other schools but that’s not the ACC in my view. I expect it to happen within 4 years when they expand the playoffs again.

This is a crazy take. Four years? The GOR decision in court is unlikely to let anyone out of the ACC by that time. No one is leaving without their media rights.

 

[RonJohn]

However... there are some of those ranked SEC teams playing (non-cupcakes) in early season. If they (SEC) win those games, their resumes are building (rightly so).

The big problem is that if they lose every one of those games, there will be a narrative about: SEC teams only caring about winning the SEC, Expanded playoffs mean that conference games count more, Everybody else plays SEC teams like it is there Super Bowl, etc.: Winning most of those games will push the SEC narrative further, but losing those games will also push the SEC narrative further.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

This is a crazy take.

That's a mild way of phrasing it...

 

[orientalnc]

That's a mild way of phrasing it...

There was a spicier version in mind before I contemplated a potential mod warning.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

This is a crazy take. Four years? The GOR decision in court is unlikely to let anyone out of the ACC by that time. No one is leaving without their media rights.

We will see won’t we? Look back 4 years ago from today and no one would have predicted a 12 team playoff, Texas/OU in the SEC, USC/UCLA/wash in the BIG or SMU/Cal in the ACC. You guys who are living by the GOR until 2036 are living in fantasyland. It will all be negotiated like every contract is. No way it lasts in its current form until 2036.

 

[RonJohn]

We will see won’t we? Look back 4 years ago from today and no one would have predicted a 12 team playoff, Texas/OU in the SEC, USC/UCLA/wash in the BIG or SMU/Cal in the ACC. You guys who are living by the GOR until 2036 are living in fantasyland. It will all be negotiated like every contract is. No way it lasts in its current form until 2036.

It might not hold until 2036, however I do think it will hold at least until 2030. The Big10 media contract doesn't expire until 2030. The SEC media contract doesn't expire until 2034. If a team were to pay to leave the ACC before 2030, they would not be able to get a full share of media from either of those conferences. Why pay money to leave, then make the same money in a different conference instead of making more? It might be incorrect, but the reporting about the Big12 was that they have used all of the full share spots in their media contract. If a team were to move from the ACC to the Big12, the Big12 wouldn't even get a full Big12 share for them.

With all that said, If something happens it is more likely to actually happen in 2030, 2032, or 2034. It would be announced probably around 2029. You are pushing your argument too far. You said that something will happen within four years. Then when someone said that four years is unrealistic, instead of defending four years you assume their argument to mean that nothing at all will happen until after 2036.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Don’t worry. The ACC is absolutely going to die. The GOR tied to 2036 while maybe good intentioned when signed also locked the ACC into an unknown death spiral. Now, a few short years later our top 2 teams are suing to get out and several others are surely having back channel discussions for a landing spot. The ACC will not exist in any fashion like it has. Sure, they could replace GT, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Clemson with other schools but that’s not the ACC in my view. I expect it to happen within 4 years when they expand the playoffs again.

its never as good or as bad as it seems. This post may win the award for most Debbie Downer

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

It might not hold until 2036, however I do think it will hold at least until 2030. The Big10 media contract doesn't expire until 2030. The SEC media contract doesn't expire until 2034. If a team were to pay to leave the ACC before 2030, they would not be able to get a full share of media from either of those conferences. Why pay money to leave, then make the same money in a different conference instead of making more? It might be incorrect, but the reporting about the Big12 was that they have used all of the full share spots in their media contract. If a team were to move from the ACC to the Big12, the Big12 wouldn't even get a full Big12 share for them.

With all that said, If something happens it is more likely to actually happen in 2030, 2032, or 2034. It would be announced probably around 2029. You are pushing your argument too far. You said that something will happen within four years. Then when someone said that four years is unrealistic, instead of defending four years you assume their argument to mean that nothing at all will happen until after 2036.

The flaw in this reply is the assumption there was ever an intent by the font to use logic in the first place...

 

[WreckinGT]

It might not hold until 2036, however I do think it will hold at least until 2030. The Big10 media contract doesn't expire until 2030. The SEC media contract doesn't expire until 2034. If a team were to pay to leave the ACC before 2030, they would not be able to get a full share of media from either of those conferences. Why pay money to leave, then make the same money in a different conference instead of making more? It might be incorrect, but the reporting about the Big12 was that they have used all of the full share spots in their media contract. If a team were to move from the ACC to the Big12, the Big12 wouldn't even get a full Big12 share for them.

With all that said, If something happens it is more likely to actually happen in 2030, 2032, or 2034. It would be announced probably around 2029. You are pushing your argument too far. You said that something will happen within four years. Then when someone said that four years is unrealistic, instead of defending four years you assume their argument to mean that nothing at all will happen until after 2036.

The SEC's new contract is supposed to be in the 70+ million dollar range. The B1Gs new contract is supposed to be in the 80-100 million dollar a year range. The ACC is paying out about 44 million. The SEC and B1G now also get bigger payouts from the CFP. Even with a reduced payout initially, it is unlikely they would make much less if any less than what they are making now. That is how bad the ACC contract is. Dealing with a reduced payout for a few years and getting much better TV exposure and playoff opportunities is probably something FSU and Clemson would be happy to do when they finally make the jump to leave assuming they could find a home in the P2.

 

[billga99]

The SEC's new contract is supposed to be in the 70+ million dollar range. The B1Gs new contract is supposed to be in the 80-100 million dollar a year range. The ACC is paying out about 44 million. The SEC and B1G now also get bigger payouts from the CFP. Even with a reduced payout initially, it is unlikely they would make much less if any less than what they are making now. That is how bad the ACC contract is. Dealing with a reduced payout for a few years and getting much better TV exposure and playoff opportunities is probably something FSU and Clemson would be happy to do when they finally make the jump to leave assuming they could find a home in the P2.

I think FSU has a better chance than Clemson. They are in a far bigger state and have had more recent success. If this had been 5 years ago when Clemson was at the top of their game, I would have put them on equal footing. Unless Clemson starts being more aggressive in the Portal, I just don't see them recapturing National Championship status. But I think the odds of either team getting anything close to a full amount in a P2 is remote until the various conference contracts renew. I think the huge wildcard in all of this is if football pulls away from the NCAA to form super conference(s). If that happens, everything will be in major flux.

 

[RonJohn]

The SEC's new contract is supposed to be in the 70+ million dollar range. The B1Gs new contract is supposed to be in the 80-100 million dollar a year range. The ACC is paying out about 44 million. The SEC and B1G now also get bigger payouts from the CFP. Even with a reduced payout initially, it is unlikely they would make much less if any less than what they are making now. That is how bad the ACC contract is. Dealing with a reduced payout for a few years and getting much better TV exposure and playoff opportunities is probably something FSU and Clemson would be happy to do when they finally make the jump to leave assuming they could find a home in the P2.

Reportedly Oregon and Washington will receive $30-35 million from the Big10. The ACC averaged payouts of $44.8 million in 2022-2023. GT's revenue in fiscal 2023 included $55.36 million from "Conference/NCAA Distributions, Media Rights, and Post-Season Football". https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/acc/georgia-institute-technology The Big10 and SEC do make more money per team than the ACC, and with the new media contracts that difference is increasing. However, teams that were late to the game for the new contracts are not getting a full payout. They are not even getting as much as the ACC teams. Until new media contracts, there is nowhere for an ACC team to go to make even the same amount of revenue that they are making in the ACC.

 

[g0lftime]

The SEC's new contract is supposed to be in the 70+ million dollar range. The B1Gs new contract is supposed to be in the 80-100 million dollar a year range. The ACC is paying out about 44 million. The SEC and B1G now also get bigger payouts from the CFP. Even with a reduced payout initially, it is unlikely they would make much less if any less than what they are making now. That is how bad the ACC contract is. Dealing with a reduced payout for a few years and getting much better TV exposure and playoff opportunities is probably something FSU and Clemson would be happy to do when they finally make the jump to leave assuming they could find a home in the P2.

Ironic that the UNC mafia at the ACC office, Swofford and buddies, who negotiated the tv contracts, now UNC is also considering bolting from the ACC. They would be a nothing burger in the B1G or SEC but they haven't figured that out. Mack made a comment recently to be careful what you wish for. He knows how hard it is to compete in those leagues. Tough enough in the ACC.

 

[Vespidae]

Ironic that the UNC mafia at the ACC office, Swofford and buddies, who negotiated the tv contracts, now UNC is also considering bolting from the ACC. They would be a nothing burger in the B1G or SEC but they haven't figured that out. Mack made a comment recently to be careful what you wish for. He knows how hard it is to compete in those leagues. Tough enough in the ACC.

Oklahoma, with the storied history and resources that it has, hasn't won a national championship since 2000 - 24 years. Urban Meyer recently said they are about to experience significantly more physicality than what they are used to. Yep ... more challenging.

According to Meyer, the biggest obstacle for Texas and Oklahoma to overcome is dealing with the size and speed of defensive lines in the SEC. While both the Sooners and Longhorns have squared off against quality defensive lines, it is nowhere near as consistent as it will be when they step into the SEC.

“I got educated on the SEC in 2005 when I was in Florida, and we played Tennessee in the swamp,” Meyer said. “And I looked out there and there’s big men that I mean— everybody’s going to have really good skill; some teams have elite, but everybody’s got good skill. The difference is that damn defense line and linebackers. The way they run in the South and in the SEC and the way they take their football.”

UNC would most likely struggle in either league.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The flaw in this reply is the assumption there was ever an intent by the font to use logic in the first place...

Now you’re just piling on.

 

[WreckinGT]

Ironic that the UNC mafia at the ACC office, Swofford and buddies, who negotiated the tv contracts, now UNC is also considering bolting from the ACC. They would be a nothing burger in the B1G or SEC but they haven't figured that out. Mack made a comment recently to be careful what you wish for. He knows how hard it is to compete in those leagues. Tough enough in the ACC.

The problem is, long term the only two conferences that will matter will be the SEC and B1G. It wouldn't be shocking if they continue to expand and then eventually break away from the other conferences entirely. Being able to win more in an irrelevant conference isn't really a long term goal. The ACC (if it still exists) is not going to be a major player 10-15 years from now.