Conference Realignment

[TechPhi97]

One of the questions I have is a little hard to encapsulate succinctly so bear with me.

Tech was once the hottest ticket in town and had a national following. Yes, I’m going way back. We don’t have to go over all the reasons for why this is no longer the case. Media has changed, entertainment has changed, sports have changed, news has changed, the country has changed, and Tech is no longer considered a national power, and these are all starting points for different conversations.

My question is, has there ever been a team of Tech’s national reputation and draw, that has gone through the decades long decline we have, who has gone back to being a nationally recognized power and has recovered the same drawing power and media share they once had?

I can’t think of any team that has done that but I don’t know which factor that is a feature of, other than failure to win consistently, but that is an interesting thought experiment to me if you have an opinion.

Texas A&M might be an example. Bear Bryant and the Junction Boys way back when, and then they went through some really bad years in the 70s and 80s. Jackie Sherrill cheated them to better, but they’re definitely “back” now.

 

[TechPhi97]

In a vacuum, you are correct… but colleges have separated AAs from the schools, introduced contractual agreements with strictly for profit media companies, marketing agreements with for profit products / manufacturers and now we’re talking about straight up PE investors.
That’s simplistic, but there is too much invested to make the reinvestment in things that don’t drive additional viewership and revenues (ie undergirding education).

The idea that colleges have separated AAs from schools is not really correct. They’ve separated them financially (for the most part) but if you look at the organizing documents for AAs you will always see the President sitting on the Board, as well as faculty reps and usually student reps. They have more independent management but they are still part of the governance structure of the University.

 

[yoshiki2]

Miami is BACK!!

The U is back. It feels good to beat them, got many friends from there.

 

[MWBATL]

As far as conference expansion goes…why wouldn’t some existing conference(s) decide they want to be the NCFL (National Collegiate Football League). Model yourself after the NFL. Go coast to coast. Control ALL media rights to any good programs, playoffs, etc.
You can let the small boys play (USFL types) but who really cares?

Isn’t that where this is ultimately heading (unless something changes)?

Only real question is how many teams you want in the NCFL. No worries about conference games vs non-conference games (just like the NFL). No more competing against other conferences. The best consolidate and share the wealth.

 

[Richard7125]

If it was all about winning championships UT/OU would’ve joined the ACC to even things out a bit and have an EXCELLENT chance of being one of 2-3 ACC teams in the playoff every year.

Top 2-3 in that ACC would’ve been easier than top 3-4 in the current SEC.

But it wouldn’t have the same $$$.

Hell, don’t drive schools away with the LHN cash grab and the Big 12 might not have fallen so far behind in the first place. And then you have the relatively light schedule the Vince Young team enjoyed, vs a consolidated gauntlet.

In the ACC (or Big12 for that matter), you need to win your conference championship to make the playoffs. It’s very hard to win a conference championship. You need to be really good and you need the bounces to go your way. In the SEC, you don’t even need to make the conference championship game to make the playoffs

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

In the ACC (or Big12 for that matter), you need to win your conference championship to make the playoffs. It’s very hard to win a conference championship. You need to be really good and you need the bounces to go your way. In the SEC, you don’t even need to make the conference championship game to make the playoffs

Everyone who hasn’t realized this yet will be a hoot to watch as they convulse when the invitations are aired on live TV and their 12-1 or 11-2 team is left out like FSU was. And it could very well be GT fans at some point over the next 5 years. It’s always amazing how people can’t look past today and see what’s happening. That’s why I’m calling for the ACC to die and for the playoffs to expand into the 20’s. Both of those things are going to happen, but until they do a lot of fanbases are going to see their once in every fifteen years chance not happen because they are in the wrong conference. A lot of folks who laughed at FSU should take a selfie when they are sitting in their chair when reality hits them like Norvell had to endure. And that dude was actually undefeated with a championship trophy.

 

[forensicbuzz]

In the ACC (or Big12 for that matter), you need to win your conference championship to make the playoffs. It’s very hard to win a conference championship. You need to be really good and you need the bounces to go your way. In the SEC, you don’t even need to make the conference championship game to make the playoffs

You don't know this for a fact. This is speculation based on what happened last year. There might be some merit to what you're saying, but this hasn't happened yet. Let's see a couple of seasons play out before we relegate ACC to champions-only status.

 

[Techster]

As far as conference expansion goes…why wouldn’t some existing conference(s) decide they want to be the NCFL (National Collegiate Football League). Model yourself after the NFL. Go coast to coast. Control ALL media rights to any good programs, playoffs, etc.
You can let the small boys play (USFL types) but who really cares?

Isn’t that where this is ultimately heading (unless something changes)?

Only real question is how many teams you want in the NCFL. No worries about conference games vs non-conference games (just like the NFL). No more competing against other conferences. The best consolidate and share the wealth.

AKA, the B1G expansion model

 

[orientalnc]

Everyone who hasn’t realized this yet will be a hoot to watch as they convulse when the invitations are aired on live TV and their 12-1 or 11-2 team is left out like FSU was. And it could very well be GT fans at some point over the next 5 years. It’s always amazing how people can’t look past today and see what’s happening. That’s why I’m calling for the ACC to die and for the playoffs to expand into the 20’s. Both of those things are going to happen, but until they do a lot of fanbases are going to see their once in every fifteen years chance not happen because they are in the wrong conference. A lot of folks who laughed at FSU should take a selfie when they are sitting in their chair when reality hits them like Norvell had to endure. And that dude was actually undefeated with a championship trophy.

If we go through this schedule 11-2 and are not ACC champs, we will be ranked in the top 12. We will have beaten two of FSU, ND and uga.

 

[forensicbuzz]

It will be interesting to see if a conference shunts a school because they are not doing what it takes to move the conference forward. This can be any of the conferences, but I'm specifically looking at B1G, which has many dead-weight football schools (Illinois, NW, Indiana, Rutgers, etc.). That won't happen until the media agreement changes (if it does) away from in-market / out-of-market differential, which may never change.

 

[Vespidae]

If we go through this schedule 11-2 and are not ACC champs, we will be ranked in the top 12. We will have beaten two of FSU, ND and uga.

I was reading over the weekend about the "thought process" of why 12, why not 16, etc.

The basic thread was a) Let's get all the conference champs in and b) anyone with 2 losses or less. (Who want's a 3 loss National Champion.)

In the final ranking last year, tOSU, with 2 losses, came in at 10th. AZ and LSU both came in at 11-12 with 3.

Takeaway? If you are 10-2, you are almost guaranteed to get in. Or at least, that is the thinking.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

You guys who are looking at the past regarding rankings on 1 or 2 loss non-conference champions are looking at a time when 5-12 DID NOT MATTER. Now, that 5-12 brings in huge money the polls will be manipulated just like they have been for 1-4. No way more than 1 team from the ACC or Big 12 get in. What they did to FSU based on an “injury” is nothing like what we will see in the upcoming years.

What I see happening is teams outside the BIG and SEC will fall like rocks with a loss, while teams inside the BIG and SEC will fall little. So even if we beat 2 of ND, UGA, FSU it won’t matter because those teams will fall. If we beat FSU they will be ridiculed and become an afterthought in the top 15. If we beat ND and they have a loss or 2 that win won’t be seen as special. Now, if we beat UGA then none of it matters because we will have beaten UGA!

 

[Vespidae]

You guys who are looking at the past regarding rankings on 1 or 2 loss non-conference champions are looking at a time when 5-12 DID NOT MATTER. Now, that 5-12 brings in huge money the polls will be manipulated just like they have been for 1-4. No way more than 1 team from the ACC or Big 12 get in. What they did to FSU based on an “injury” is nothing like what we will see in the upcoming years.

What I see happening is teams outside the BIG and SEC will fall like rocks with a loss, while teams inside the BIG and SEC will fall little. So even if we beat 2 of ND, UGA, FSU it won’t matter because those teams will fall. If we beat FSU they will be ridiculed and become an afterthought in the top 15. If we beat ND and they have a loss or 2 that win won’t be seen as special. Now, if we beat UGA then none of it matters because we will have beaten UGA!

Is this something you have control over or can do something about? No. So, just enjoy the season. That more teams will be in the hunt will be exciting.

 

[orientalnc]

You guys who are looking at the past regarding rankings on 1 or 2 loss non-conference champions are looking at a time when 5-12 DID NOT MATTER. Now, that 5-12 brings in huge money the polls will be manipulated just like they have been for 1-4. No way more than 1 team from the ACC or Big 12 get in. What they did to FSU based on an “injury” is nothing like what we will see in the upcoming years.

What I see happening is teams outside the BIG and SEC will fall like rocks with a loss, while teams inside the BIG and SEC will fall little. So even if we beat 2 of ND, UGA, FSU it won’t matter because those teams will fall. If we beat FSU they will be ridiculed and become an afterthought in the top 15. If we beat ND and they have a loss or 2 that win won’t be seen as special. Now, if we beat UGA then none of it matters because we will have beaten UGA!

This level of pessimism is foreign to my way of thinking. I hope it makes you feel better.

 

[bobongo]

If we go through this schedule 11-2 and are not ACC champs, we will be ranked in the top 12. We will have beaten two of FSU, ND and uga.

10-2 might get us into the playoffs. We'd be on the bubble.

 

[Thwg777]

I don’t look forward to the new playoff system and personally favor the old 1 vs. 2 model. The new model may be touted as “giving more teams a chance” but I think it’s really just a hedge for the P2 to protect against internal cannibalism and a proxy to guarantee 58-75% of the playoff spots each year.

 

[Richard7125]

You don't know this for a fact. This is speculation based on what happened last year. There might be some merit to what you're saying, but this hasn't happened yet. Let's see a couple of seasons play out before we relegate ACC to champions-only status.

It was a little hyperbole on my part. The 12 team playoffs are the (5) highest ranked conference champions plus (7) at large. It’s possible for the ACC to get two teams into the playoffs. My comment was in reply to someone suggesting it will be harder for Texas or Oklahoma to get into the playoffs since they joined the SEC. I'm not too sure about that. You could finish 3rd (and maybe 4th) in the SEC and still make the playoffs whereas you probably need to finish first in the former Big12 to make the playoffs.

There is already serious talk of moving to a 14 team playoff with the leading format being 11 automatic bids and 3 at large bids. In this scenario the auto bids are: SEC – 3, Big10 – 3, ACC – 2, Big12 – 2, G5 – 1. I would imagine there will be a fight over the three at large bids between the SEC and Big10. Based on history neither the ACC nor Big12 will be competing for those at large spots. No format is guaranteed yet, but the above isn't farfetched.

The blue-bloods of football know it's difficult to win a conference championship because you need some luck to go your way, but they feel super confident they can be 3rd or 4th in their conference.

 

[57jacket]

Ha Ha. This must be the longest thread ever. Anybody keep up with that stat? Everything said over and over with a different slant/ opinion.

 

[Techster]

This is a fantastic article by David Hale that runs through the GOR. In particular, this part piqued my curiosity:



In reality, the document is far more mundane than the secrecy suggests.

The ACC's grant of rights, which became public as part of court filings in December 2023, is 3½ pages of sparse language outlining the reasons for its existence ("enhances the stability of conference membership," and "confirms the commitment by each member") and the rights conferred (multimedia, copyright). It runs through June 30, 2036, and requires any new members -- Stanford, Cal and SMU were added this summer -- to sign the same agreement.

While the grant of rights is inherently tied to the multimedia rights deal, they are separate documents, and changes to one does not necessarily impact the other.

"It serves all the constituents," said John Wildhack, a former executive at ESPN and now the athletic director at Syracuse. "It provides some certainty for the media company, certainty for the institutions and certainty for the conference."

Some of us have debated whether the GOR exists solely for the ESPN media deal, or if the GOR "terminates" once the ESPN media deal terminates since the documents points back to the ESPN media deal multiple times. The phrase "one does not necessarily impact the other" is interesting, as it sounds like Hale isn't sure himself. The business person in me that reviews contracts all the time seems skeptical the ACC would win in court if ESPN terminated in 2027 that the ACC could legally hold any school "hostage" for 10 more years, or try to substitute an inferior contract (there is no "equal or greater value" language in the GOR) like what the PAC 12 was offered in lieu of the ESPN deal.

We may never find out if ESPN declines their unilateral option, but part of me wants to see the ensuing chaos...so...

 

[RonJohn]

This is a fantastic article by David Hale that runs through the GOR. In particular, this part piqued my curiosity:



In reality, the document is far more mundane than the secrecy suggests.

The ACC's grant of rights, which became public as part of court filings in December 2023, is 3½ pages of sparse language outlining the reasons for its existence ("enhances the stability of conference membership," and "confirms the commitment by each member") and the rights conferred (multimedia, copyright). It runs through June 30, 2036, and requires any new members -- Stanford, Cal and SMU were added this summer -- to sign the same agreement.

While the grant of rights is inherently tied to the multimedia rights deal, they are separate documents, and changes to one does not necessarily impact the other.

"It serves all the constituents," said John Wildhack, a former executive at ESPN and now the athletic director at Syracuse. "It provides some certainty for the media company, certainty for the institutions and certainty for the conference."

Some of us have debated whether the GOR exists solely for the ESPN media deal, or if the GOR "terminates" once the ESPN media deal terminates since the documents points back to the ESPN media deal multiple times. The phrase "one does not necessarily impact the other" is interesting, as it sounds like Hale isn't sure himself. The business person in me that reviews contracts all the time seems skeptical the ACC would win in court if ESPN terminated in 2027 that the ACC could legally hold any school "hostage" for 10 more years, or try to substitute an inferior contract (there is no "equal or greater value" language in the GOR) like what the PAC 12 was offered in lieu of the ESPN deal.

We may never find out if ESPN declines their unilateral option, but part of me wants to see the ensuing chaos...so...

In forums, Twitter, YouTube, etc. many people are making claims based on nothing more than their idea of how things should be. The GOR was made public long before December 2023. The extension wasn't public, at least that I saw, before that time frame. The extension basically only extends the time from and doesn't substantially change the agreement any more than that. (not saying that Hale is making claims on nothing more than what he thinks, the GOR being public was the beginning of a separate thought)

They have always been "separate documents". The only thing impacting the GOR is the inclusion of: "Each of the member institutions hereby irrevocably and exclusively grants to the conference during the term ... all rights necessary for the conference to perform the contractual obligations of the conference expressly set forth in the ESPN agreement, regardless of whether such member institution remains a member of the conference during the entirety of the term." There could be some argument if ESPN backs out about whether the rights necessary to perform the ESPN agreement requires the agreement to be in place. I finally understand Clemson's argument, which is that the ESPN agreement only requires 15 teams, and if Clemson leaves but 15 teams remain then the ACC can perform to the contract without Clemson's rights.

I disagree that the ACC would be holding a school "hostage". FSU does not own the media rights to their games until 2036, period. No further discussion necessary, they assigned those rights to the ACC. FSU's president and BOT were happy about the fact that the ACC members were all giving up their rights in order to make it difficult to leave the conference when they signed the documents. Unlike it is potrayed in the FSU lawsuit, the FSU president and BOT were not simpletons who were duped by the evil snake oil salesman. They were very smart people with access and advice from high powered law firms when they willingly agreed to the contracts. They are no more held "hostage" than a person who buys a house is held hostage by his mortgage company. He can't just decide not to pay the mortgage, and then decry that it is evil of the bank to take his house away. (Although many people actually do that.) FSU and the FSU BOT are entities that survive turnover of members, but they are the same entity. The ACC wouldn't be holding "hostage", they would only be requiring FSU to abide by legal contracts that it willingly entered into.

We will most likely never know if an ESPN unilateral option actually exists. The only way we will know is if ESPN does have a unilateral option and drops the ACC. If they keep the ACC, or if no such option actually exists, it will just be speculation about what happened instead of actual knowledge.