Conference Realignment

[roadkill]

I don't think I read that article before. One thing: It isn't because of dilution of the media contract that he predicts ESPN would sue FSU. It is because FSU disclosed trade secrets to the public. He is saying that if FSU is no longer a business partner of ESPN, then it increases the likelihood that ESPN would file a lawsuit for that disclosure.

You are correct. Not sure what I was thinking regarding the value dilution, although perhaps that came up in another part of the discussion. I think it's part of the reasoning behind the exit fee.

 

[g0lftime]

Notre Dame just got $50 million per year from NBC.

Word was they wanted $70M.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Word was they wanted $70M.

And why wouldn't they? I was responding to the font that said no independent team could get a $40 million tv contract...

 

[forensicbuzz]

Oregon isn't only getting $30 simply because they were desperate. They are a BIGGER brand than FSU. The Big10 media deal is already in place. To pay full shares to Oregon and Washington would mean that the TV partners would have to increase the payments by two full shares. The TV partners are not willing to do that. They other way to get "full" shares would be for every other Big10 member to reduce their share so that Oregon and Washington will be level with them. Good luck with that. The Big10 can only offer what the TV partners offer for additional teams. There are reports that the SEC tried to get more money from their ESPN contract by playing 9 conference games. The reports basically said that ESPN told the SEC that they can play 9 conference games if they want, but the media payments wouldn't change.

If FSU gets what they are asking for, they will be as desperate as Oregon was. At that point, they won't have any TV partner for 2025, or whatever year they are released from the ACC. I think most signs are that they wouldn't be a full partner in the Big10 until at least 2030, just like Washington and Oregon. They likely wouldn't be a full partner in the SEC until 2034. That is when the SEC contract expires, and ESPN hasn't been willing to negotiate for more money with the SEC. They might not be below the ACC earnings long term, but they would likely be below ACC earnings until 2030. I guess it depends on your definition of long term.

Oregon is not a bigger brand than FSU. That just simply is not true. Although, after all the dust settles from FSU's little tantrum, Oregon's brand may be worth more because FSU has destroyed their own brand.

Oregon and Washington are getting the portion of the B1G contract that had the stipulation that adding a P5 team would result in a full share increase in the contract. Unfortunately for those two schools, only part of the B1G media deal has that stipulation. Oregon and Washington are not getting anything from the portion without the add-on agreement.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Oregon is not a bigger brand than FSU. That just simply is not true. Although, after all the dust settles from FSU's little tantrum, Oregon's brand may be worth more because FSU has destroyed their own brand.

Oregon and Washington are getting the portion of the B1G contract that had the stipulation that adding a P5 team would result in a full share increase in the contract. Unfortunately for those two schools, only part of the B1G media deal has that stipulation. Oregon and Washington are not getting anything from the portion without the add-on agreement.

Almost every ranking I've seen recently disagrees with you. Oregon is a bigger brand than FSU.

College football's 25 biggest brands, ranked

The most recognizable programs in college football, according to high school recruits.

247sports.com

College Football’s 25 Most Valuable Teams

College football isn’t only exciting, it’s also big business. With the title game coming up, can you guess which teams are the most valuable?

finance.yahoo.com

 

[orientalnc]

Notre Dame just got $50 million per year from NBC.

Maybe they got $50 million per year, but IIRC the financial details were not released may never be made public. Several media outlets hedged their language to say "it is believed to be worth $50 million."

 

[WreckinGT]

Notre Dame just got $50 million per year from NBC.

I was talking about any team moving from being in a conference to independent. Notre Dame obviously already has media partners and have handled the scheduling difficulties for years now, with high quality yearly games built in. No one else is in that position. Even if Alabama decided to be independent they aren't getting anywhere near 40 million.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Almost every ranking I've seen recently disagrees with you. Oregon is a bigger brand than FSU.

College football's 25 biggest brands, ranked

The most recognizable programs in college football, according to high school recruits.

247sports.com

College Football’s 25 Most Valuable Teams

College football isn’t only exciting, it’s also big business. With the title game coming up, can you guess which teams are the most valuable?

finance.yahoo.com

Maybe. I still don't think that's true. I recognize you're providing data to support that opinion.

 

[WreckinGT]

Maybe. I still don't think that's true. I recognize you're providing data to support that opinion.

There is other data to support the opposite. It's a bit of a pointless argument.

 

[orientalnc]

Maybe. I still don't think that's true. I recognize you're providing data to support that opinion.

Using those data FSU is the #3 football brand in Florida. But, the source of the data is, to me, questionable.

"Brand recognition is essential in college football from a recruiting standpoint. Being a recognizable name is paramount to talent acquisition. Official Visit surveyed 1,000 high school football players last year on brand strength and asked athletes to rank college football programs. They included a rolling four-year average in their data findings ..."

I am not sure if the opinions of 17 year old high school football players is the best source of data.

 

[cpf2001]

Oregon’s been more consistently good for the last couple of decades, in Big 10 territory I could certainly see it; probably not in ACC or SEC territory.

 

[yeti92]

Using those data FSU is the #3 football brand in Florida. But, the source of the data is, to me, questionable.

"Brand recognition is essential in college football from a recruiting standpoint. Being a recognizable name is paramount to talent acquisition. Official Visit surveyed 1,000 high school football players last year on brand strength and asked athletes to rank college football programs. They included a rolling four-year average in their data findings ..."

I am not sure if the opinions of 17 year old high school football players is the best source of data.

For recruiting purposes, polling 17 years olds probably makes sense. But I would think "biggest brands" is based on a combination of merchandise sales volume and social media popularity.

 

[orientalnc]

For recruiting purposes, polling 17 years olds probably makes sense. But I would think "biggest brands" is based on a combination of merchandise sales volume and social media popularity.

I am not sure that I understand all the components of brand value in college football. Or, whether the TV marketability is related to the brand value that merchandise sales might indicate. My neighbor has a bunch of UNC branded apparel, but his kids (adults now) don't care about UNC at all. Yet, they all have UNC apparel. What I am saying is, this is not a clear cut issue. If I were thinking of the most important college brands, Alabama, uga, ND, Michigan, Stanford, Oregon, Texas, and Harvard come to mind quickly. Locally, that might not be the right list. Or, if you are only looking at football. But, if a college owns a brand that is exclusively about football, they have driven off the road.

 

[Vespidae]

I am not sure that I understand all the components of brand value in college football. Or, whether the TV marketability is related to the brand value that merchandise sales might indicate. My neighbor has a bunch of UNC branded apparel, but his kids (adults now) don't care about UNC at all. Yet, they all have UNC apparel. What I am saying is, this is not a clear cut issue. If I were thinking of the most important college brands, Alabama, uga, ND, Michigan, Stanford, Oregon, Texas, and Harvard come to mind quickly. Locally, that might not be the right list. Or, if you are only looking at football. But, if a college owns a brand that is exclusively about football, they have driven off the road.

Not sure what the point is. Companies regularly poll customers to ask potential customers about how knowledgeable they are about the company, their value, impressions (positive, negative) etc. They then use that to change or adjust messaging strategy.

Polling 17 year olds that might be future recruits makes sense.

 

[stinger78]

This supports my gut feeling, which is: The SEC is indeed the best overall conference, BY A SMIDGEON. It has recently had some of the best individual teams in the country, but overall as a conference, it is slightly better BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE EXTENT THAT SHOULD JUSTIFY ALL OF THE ADORATION APPLIED TO THEM. In fact, not enough to be a tie-breaker in ....anything.

This ^^^

 

[stinger78]

Oregon’s been more consistently good for the last couple of decades, in Big 10 territory I could certainly see it; probably not in ACC or SEC territory.

CFB branding is local and national. The total brand is the sum of the two. There is no way I’d believe that Oregon’s local brand recognition on the west coast excess F$U’s local brand recognition in the southeast and on the east coast. However, outside those areas, nationally, Oregon has had more success lately and may well enjoy the edge.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

CFB branding is local and national. The total brand is the sum of the two. There is no way I’d believe that Oregon’s local brand recognition on the west coast excess F$U’s local brand recognition in the southeast and on the east coast. However, outside those areas, nationally, Oregon has had more success lately and may well enjoy the edge.

Here in Augusta I see just as much Oregon gear as I do FSU gear. 20 years ago FSU had arguably one of the top 5 brands in college football. Phil Knight has donated over $1 billion dollars to Oregon over the years. Years of mediocre FSU football interspersed with a few great years while Oregon has continually compiled top 10 classes and winning seasons has shifted the calculus in favor of the Ducks.

 

[orientalnc]

Here in Augusta I see just as much Oregon gear as I do FSU gear. 20 years ago FSU had arguably one of the top 5 brands in college football. Phil Knight has donated over $1 billion dollars to Oregon over the years. Years of mediocre FSU football interspersed with a few great years while Oregon has continually compiled top 10 classes and winning seasons has shifted the calculus in favor of the Ducks.

In the past three years I have driven and camped in all 48 contiguous states. I see more Harvard branded apparel than FSU. I actually see more UNC apparel in Florida than FSU apparel. This argument might be different if FSU had not had those down years. But, I am not sure. Oregon is a huge brand.

 

[WreckinGT]

Pretty interesting article on FSU's latest amendment and some details of FSU's TV value compared to the rest of the conference.

Florida State’s amended lawsuit shows university is prepared to break ACC in fight for survival

If Florida State leaves the ACC, it will cause the conference to implode like the PAC-12

www.tomahawknation.com

 

[RonJohn]

Pretty interesting article on FSU's latest amendment and some details of FSU's TV value compared to the rest of the conference.

Florida State’s amended lawsuit shows university is prepared to break ACC in fight for survival

If Florida State leaves the ACC, it will cause the conference to implode like the PAC-12

www.tomahawknation.com

Are you insinuating that Tomahawknation is a fair and unbiased source of information?

Also, I don't see any details of FSU's "value". I see ratings and claims that FSU is an important part of the ACC media package. I don't see anything that assigns a dollar "value" to it.

Also, the article quotes an earlier article that:

Wilcox was a staunch supporter of FSU’s membership in the ACC and later the ACC Network. Wilcox projected the ACC Network could bring in $15 million a year for Florida State athletics. Thanks to those projections, Thrasher didn’t object to extending the ACC Grant of Rights through 2036 as a prerequisite for ESPN launching the ACC Network.

Despite a scathing fan-baiting article decrying how great FSU is and how foul the ACC is, they quote and link to an article in which Tomoahawknation blamed FSU mismanagement for the issues at FSU. It is good that Tomahawknation is not writing legal briefs for FSU, because they just admitted that FSU explicitly agreed with the GOR. In a lawsuit to get out of a contract, it would be extremely difficult to get out of a filing in which you admit yourself that your predecessor agreed with the contract and signed it of free will.