Conference Realignment

[Techster]

Remember, it's a marathon not a sprint.

 

[Jazzchaz]

How much of this discussion would we be having if the playoff system had been fixed years ago? I knew when they added the conference 'championship' games that the majority of them had little value in determining a national champion because the conference divisions were rarely equal in quality for the current year.
If it were up to me, if say, 90 teams qualified for Division 1 football, I'd have nine conferences of ten teams. Each team would play the other nine conference teams and two OOC games.
The nine conference winners would get a playoff berth and then 'those in charge' could add 3 other teams for 12 playoff teams, or add 7 teams for 16 playoff teams etc.
Teams that didn't make up the top twelve or sixteen could then schedule a 12th regular season game for revenue and poll placement. The sites that currently have the conference championship games could handle a first round playoff and some bowl games could handle the rest.
So what I'm saying here is that neither I nor perhaps many other fans of the 'less desirable' Division 1 schools have any interest in watching 'big revenue' schools compete for a championship we no longer can be chosen for.
If one can't dream that his or her school might someday make the 'big time' then I think it kills our interest in watching games and adding to the media numbers. I know I'd watch Georgia Tech games and very few others.
How many people would watch college basketball if their school's media interest only qualified them for the NIT?
I think that's what will happen with football. If you cast off some current Division 1 schools, you eventually kill interest in the game.

 

[MWBATL]

Welp, I knew nothing about TX and OK going to the SEC until it happened. I knew nothing about USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten until it happened.
I'm pretty sure my speculations about the future would be totally incorrect.

 

[bobongo]

How much of this discussion would we be having if the playoff system had been fixed years ago? I knew when they added the conference 'championship' games that the majority of them had little value in determining a national champion because the conference divisions were rarely equal in quality for the current year.
If it were up to me, if say, 90 teams qualified for Division 1 football, I'd have nine conferences of ten teams. Each team would play the other nine conference teams and two OOC games.
The nine conference winners would get a playoff berth and then 'those in charge' could add 3 other teams for 12 playoff teams, or add 7 teams for 16 playoff teams etc.
Teams that didn't make up the top twelve or sixteen could then schedule a 12th regular season game for revenue and poll placement. The sites that currently have the conference championship games could handle a first round playoff and some bowl games could handle the rest.
So what I'm saying here is that neither I nor perhaps many other fans of the 'less desirable' Division 1 schools have any interest in watching 'big revenue' schools compete for a championship we no longer can be chosen for.
If one can't dream that his or her school might someday make the 'big time' then I think it kills our interest in watching games and adding to the media numbers. I know I'd watch Georgia Tech games and very few others.
How many people would watch college basketball if their school's media interest only qualified them for the NIT?
I think that's what will happen with football. If you cast off some current Division 1 schools, you eventually kill interest in the game.

That's a very, very good point. I wonder how much consideration is being given to the big picture in the myopic schemes of the super conferences.

 

[Richard7125]

Dude, so you are comparing some teams who are waiting a couple of years to teams who will fall behind by millions for 14 years? There is no way schools like Clemson, ND, FSU, and Miami are going to be ok with imploding their programs for the next 14 years. Just because you are a fan of a school (like I am) that has made nothing but the wrong choices for 60 years doesn’t mean everyone is else as dumb as we are. And don’t bet against Texas and OU joining the SEC in 2023. But you keep telling yourself that the ACC will be the same until 2036.

A school wanting to leave the ACC doesn't mean the SEC or Big10 wants to invite them. Take a look at Washington and Oregon.

 

[RamblinRed]

That depends on how you define things. P5 was so-named after the Big East dissolved and reformed as a non-football playing conference. There were six Automatic Qualifying conferences for the big bowls until that happened. I may have the numbers wrong, but 6 of their members moved to the ACC, 1 to the Big10, and 1 to the Big12. I think the rest are now in Conference USA. So, that was not a "P5" conference, but it was an equivalent. If a P5 conference is dissolved, it will no longer be a P5 so you could make the same argument that a P4 conference had never dissolved.

BE is sort of a special case. It was a basketball conference that tried to add football and eventually was raided. Then it went back to its roots to be a basketball conference.
Pretty much all the football schools in the BE ended up in a P5 conference.

My take on expansion is pretty straight forward. There is going to be a Big 2 (for reasons previously discussed) and no other conferences no matter that they do will make it a Big three. Most of the schools outside the Big 2 lack either the location or the fanbase to end up in the big 2.

I think we are headed to three tiers of roughly similar numbers of programs. I think GT has a chance (albeit not a good one) to end up in the B10 in tier 1. I feel it is much more likely that GT ends up staying in the ACC and being a Tier 2 team. Whether GT wants to be in Tier 1 is almost immaterial. It is whether the current Tier 1 conferences want GT in their conference and the likely answer is no (certainly a no for the SEC).

As a poster above said, teams may want to leave the ACC/PAC/B12, but someone has to want them enough to leave and for the vast majority of programs in those 3 conference the simple truth is that the Big 2 don't desire them.

I'm still of the opinion there may be no more than 4 more programs that get poached into the Big 2. I don't really see it being in their interest to add much more than that. I don't think the ACC will be the same in 2o36 as today but I don't think it will be hugely different either.

I'm just not willing to be stressed about where GT football ends up. In 15 years it will still be playing football. Maybe in tier 1, probably in tier 2. Even if it is in tier 2 most of its games will be against the same teams it has been playing on the field for the last 40 years.

As a WI native I would be fine with GT in the B10 as I grew up as a young boy with alot of those teams. If GT is to ultimately get a bid to the B10 it will be based pretty much entirely on the market GT is in allowing the B10 to charge more for the B10 Network in the Atlanta market and its academic research reputation and what that would add to the B10 Consortium. The actual football program would have almost nothing to do with why it is chosen. If it is only a football decision GT will be in tier 2 as that is what it is from a football standpoint - in terms of fanbase size (bottom quintile of P5 schools), undergraduate enrollment (bottom quintile of P5 schools), and athletic budget (9th in ACC and 48th nationally in spending on football).

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

How much of this discussion would we be having if the playoff system had been fixed years ago? I knew when they added the conference 'championship' games that the majority of them had little value in determining a national champion because the conference divisions were rarely equal in quality for the current year.
If it were up to me, if say, 90 teams qualified for Division 1 football, I'd have nine conferences of ten teams. Each team would play the other nine conference teams and two OOC games.
The nine conference winners would get a playoff berth and then 'those in charge' could add 3 other teams for 12 playoff teams, or add 7 teams for 16 playoff teams etc.
Teams that didn't make up the top twelve or sixteen could then schedule a 12th regular season game for revenue and poll placement. The sites that currently have the conference championship games could handle a first round playoff and some bowl games could handle the rest.
So what I'm saying here is that neither I nor perhaps many other fans of the 'less desirable' Division 1 schools have any interest in watching 'big revenue' schools compete for a championship we no longer can be chosen for.
If one can't dream that his or her school might someday make the 'big time' then I think it kills our interest in watching games and adding to the media numbers. I know I'd watch Georgia Tech games and very few others.
How many people would watch college basketball if their school's media interest only qualified them for the NIT?
I think that's what will happen with football. If you cast off some current Division 1 schools, you eventually kill interest in the game.

To your point you are correct. And it’s coming. A vastly expanded playoff system will be here soon. Now, the definition of soon in college football is not the normal definition because the back door money is still flowing and always will. But the fairly quick expansion from 2 teams to 4 and now already talk of expansion shows us the future. And expansion won’t be because of the reason you stated, ie. fairness or keeping interest. Those are by products. The true reason, like every other expansion in any sport is about more money. The NFL and MLB expanded not to give the good people of those new cities a chance to see games in person. It was to get them to repeatedly open their wallets. Look at the Braves move. They didn’t move because the nice people on the north side “deserved” to anything. They moved because that’s where the money is.

The TV people see the numbers when big programs play big programs in meaningful games. That’s what is driving conference realignment and the playoff system which is why both will expand. The days of watching Bama play MTSU or FSU playing Samford are coming to a close because those games are leaving money on the table. I think it’s great. In my adult life I’ve gone from waiting to see how the editor at the Tucson Beacon votes to being able to watch 4 top teams play it out on TV. We’ll be at 20 plus team soon enough and then we’ll finally have a fair system brought to us by greed. Just like every other sport.

 

[Vespidae]

I'm just not willing to be stressed about where GT football ends up. In 15 years it will still be playing football. Maybe in tier 1, probably in tier 2. Even if it is in tier 2 most of its games will be against the same teams it has been playing on the field for the last 40 years.

I think this is the most accurate perspective yet. For over 100 years, three conferences, two world wars, a pandemic ... we are still largely playing the same teams. I don't think that will change. The money will change ... but we will probably still be playing sports against like-minded teams.

 

[RonJohn]

BE is sort of a special case. It was a basketball conference that tried to add football and eventually was raided. Then it went back to its roots to be a basketball conference.
Pretty much all the football schools in the BE ended up in a P5 conference.

If the ACC was raided and dissolved, you could make similar arguments about it: Basketball-centric conference that was only relevant in football because of one or two teams at a time while the rest were at the bottom of FBS.(Not that I believe that, but it could be argued)

I still stand by my statement that the Big East was on the top tier of FBS conferences. They got an automatic bid to the top bowls. The only reason we now call the P5, the "P5" is because the number of automatic qualifying conferences dropped from six to five. The ACC, Big10, and Big12 took all of the teams with value out of the Big East and left it with nothing to negotiate TV contracts with.(The ACC was the main aggressor)

 

[Lotta Booze]

Y'all....twitter rumor for now but who knows what could happen.

I heard now that the twitter deal has fallen through Elon Musk is looking to buy the broadcast rights for the ACC and broadcast games on Starlink with 1 game every year being played on Mars starting in 2032

 

[bobongo]

Y'all....twitter rumor for now but who knows what could happen.

I heard now that the twitter deal has fallen through Elon Musk is looking to buy the broadcast rights for the ACC and broadcast games on Starlink with 1 game every year being played on Mars starting in 2032

Great news! New and untapped recruiting grounds up there on the red planet. About time we expanded the conference across interplanetary space!

 

[Techster]

Great news! New and untapped recruiting grounds up there on the red planet. About time we expanded the conference across interplanetary space!

If we get invited to the Mars Intergalactic Starlink Conference and turn it down, it'll be the death of GT sports as we know it...

 

[Techster]

 

[SunBum]

Just chiming in, I've been following all of this and it just seems clear to me with regard to the ACC; If they aren't working overtime to try and make some kind of dramatic change asap, then shame on them. Assuming for now that the GOR is solid (no indications otherwise) then we're not in jeopardy of losing teams right away, but I'm afraid that the powers that be are resting on that assumption and will get left to go the way of the Big East when all is said and done. I agree with others that the B1G is done for now (other than a ND move). The SEC is done for now (waiting on ACC GOR to look at adding some teams from the ACC). No one is jumping to the Big12 unless it's the last resort and the PAC is just about dead.

There is simply no way that Clemson, FSU, Miami etc are just going to accept a $50+ million dollar per year deficit compared to the Power 2 conferences for 14 years, 10 years or whatever. No way! They are definitely looking for ways to change that before 2036. The ridiculous media deal that the ACC is in needs to be addressed somehow, someway like soon. I don't know what it will take to re-open the negotiations but there must be a way.

If there's to be a Power 3, or 2 1/2, the ACC should be busting their a$$ to figure out a way to position themselves to be the best contender for the last spot. I'm thinking something big like adding Oregon, UW, Stanford and Cal to finish off the PAC and that should be enough to re-do the media deal with ESPN. Also, wouldn't ESPN rather those teams end up in the ACC than the B1G and Fox? I'm not sure how much ESPN is driving the bus on all of this. Geography means nothing anymore. I like the idea of being an academically superior conference but we added UL so we can add Oregon. The ACC office needs to wake up and realize what's happening and decide to protect themselves first and do something big, the Gasparilla bowl or whatever ain't it, smh...

Also, FWIW, I can see why the B1G might be interested in adding GT (after GOR has been worked out) and I'd be fine with that but I can't help but think that Northwestern south would be the best we could hope for.

 

[GT_05]

Y'all....twitter rumor for now but who knows what could happen.

I heard now that the twitter deal has fallen through Elon Musk is looking to buy the broadcast rights for the ACC and broadcast games on Starlink with 1 game every year being played on Mars starting in 2032

I’m not sure why he’d trade one cesspool for another.

 

[tmhunter52]

Great news! New and untapped recruiting grounds up there on the red planet. About time we expanded the conference across interplanetary space!

“Red Planet”? You realize the color of the dreaded Dwags, right?

 

[bobongo]

“Red Planet”? You realize the color of the dreaded Dwags, right?

IIWII.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

A school wanting to leave the ACC doesn't mean the SEC or Big10 wants to invite them. Take a look at Washington and Oregon.

Take a look at what? That it hasn’t happened in a 10 day period? Come on. Things happen in bursts over shorter and shorter time periods.

Just in this century - The ACC adds Miami and VT in 2004. Adds BC in 2005. Adds Syracuse and Pitt in 2011 then Louisville in 2012 then get the tip from ND in 2012. Then they lose Maryland in 2014.

The SEC adds A&M and Missouri in 2012. And now will add Texas and OU shortly.

BIg added Nebraska in 2011 and Maryland and Rutgers in 2014. Now adding USC/UCLA shortly.

See a pattern? I know none of us know who will get invitations but any fan with common sense sees what is coming. And this GOR will not stand in the way because our society (unfortunately in my view) is way past the point of honoring contracts. Does the ACC really want a decade of schools bashing their own conference and protesting, etc. I can already see FSU and Clemson taking knees, pulling the ACC logo off jerseys, etc because they are being held hostage under an antiquated system. Heck, I hope GT does it to in order to get out. We are in an era of no rules and no enforcers.

 

[bobongo]

FWIW, I don’t think we will end up in the B1G or SEC. I hope we do for many reasons but I just don’t see it happening. I really do think that Clemson, FSU, Miami, and maybe one more team will try to get out. Frankly, they have more to lose than we do by staying. I think our best hope is for the SEC and B10 attempt to plunder the ACC simultaneously. Maybe we can get out as a package deal.

The only way anyone leaves the ACC any time soon could well be as part of a package deal. In order to obviate the GOR, the ACC would have to disband. The surest way, and perhaps the only way for that to happen is for the conference to fall below the minimum 7-team threshold set by the NCAA for a conference in Division I. The ACC has 14 teams, so if 8 left, the conference would be no more.

If, say, the B1G and the SEC were to divvy up the best 8, with 4 going to the SEC and 4 going to the B1G, we might well end up as one of the 8. If that happens, hope we're not one of the 6 left behind.

 

[roadkill]

The only way anyone leaves the ACC any time soon could well be as part of a package deal. In order to obviate the GOR, the ACC would have to disband. The surest way, and perhaps the only way for that to happen is for the conference to fall below the minimum 7-team threshold set by the NCAA for a conference in Division I. The ACC has 14 teams, so if 8 left, the conference would be no more.

If, say, the B1G and the SEC were to divvy up the best 8, with 4 going to the SEC and 4 going to the B1G, we might well end up as one of the 8. If that happens, hope we're not one of the 6 left behind.

I agree with this take. For example, ESPN could broker a deal, although they would have no interest (currently) in teams going to the B1G.