Conference Realignment

[stinger78]

I know that Project DI is being discussed with a fair amount of disagreement, but also acquiescence by many Div II and Div III schools. I have strong opinions about it but understand my feelings a very close to irrelevant. Largely, I think that's appropriate. The players and coaches and administrators have more at stake than fans.

Start rant:
If uga and tOSU want to sponsor a minor league professional football team, why not praise them for the effort and buy tickets to the games if you like what you see. But lets get the professionalism out of "college football" now while we don't have roll back everything. I would like to see NIL limited to pay by outside interests for actual activity by players. And it should made independent of the team on which the player participates. The NIL collectives are a perversion. Get rid of them. Paying players to play for your team is the equivalent of the players being employees of the team. I don't think the players want that. I know the colleges don't want that. Make a rule that TV revenue and coaches salaries and team expenses have to come from the college's general fund. No more semi-for-profit athletic associations.
End rant:

That would be a new paradigm for sure.

 

[billga99]

If we are missing because of self inflicted wounds, I can live with that.
The ACC has been pretty damned bad and there is no denying it. We need some teams to start notching wins. Bottom line.
Hype machine will help, but all the hype in the world won’t make a difference if the performance is bad.
I don’t believe the ACC as a “one bid league” is a foregone conclusion but if we don’t earn it on the field, how can we claim injustice?

I think a major part of this being so skewed is how teams are ranked at the beginning of the year. For example ESPN for 2024 has 7 SEC, 5 Big Ten, 2 Big Twelve, Notre Dame before you get to the first ACC ranked team FSU at number 16.

 

[stinger78]

I think a major part of this being so skewed is how teams are ranked at the beginning of the year. For example ESPN for 2024 has 7 SEC, 5 Big Ten, 2 Big Twelve, Notre Dame before you get to the first ACC ranked team FSU at number 16.

Yup. It’s all skewed due to The Narrative - beginning to end.

 

[Richard7125]

Lots of the discussion are comparing the SEC, ACC, Big 10 from the last decade+ and comparing it with the slots the SEC and Big10 might get in the 12 team playoff going forward. In my opinion what people are failing to consider is that the two best teams from the Big12 (Texas and Oklahoma) and three of the four best teams from the Pac12 (Oregon, Washing, USC) are going to filling the 3rd and 4th spots of the SEC and Big10.

Remove the conference affiliation. If you had Texas, Oklahoma, Bama, UGA, Mich, OSU, Washington, Oregon, FSU, Clemson, Big12 winner and G5 team, very few people would have an issue with this.

 

[stech81]

I think a major part of this being so skewed is how teams are ranked at the beginning of the year. For example ESPN for 2024 has 7 SEC, 5 Big Ten, 2 Big Twelve, Notre Dame before you get to the first ACC ranked team FSU at number 16.

ESPN butt kissing the SEC.

 

[cpf2001]

If your look at the titles for the ACC, SEC, Big, PAC, and Big XII, the vitriol for SEC propaganda may be a bit misplaced.

The Big 10 also has a much better rep than the ACC without the SEC’s results. Washington was seen as better than FSU even pre-injury IIRC and what had the PAC done in the past decade? Why is the Big XII without Texas and OU still relevant at all?

The ACC PR failure isn’t about people thinking thr SEC is better, it has been at the top for sure.

It’s that people think anyone else is clearly better - or even comparable in the case of the old PAC and BigXII remnants.

 

[Vespidae]

I think “decades” is a bit overblown, but several years of consistent results will certainly be needed.

The ACC for decades was the premier basketball conference. No one complained about conference dominance, media bias, or conspiracy then. Well, a little.

Clemson, a few years ago, was a dominating football program. But Dabo made the call to abstain from NIL and the portal. That’s a self inflicted wound. FSU and Miami in the 1990s, likewise. Self-inflicted.

Birmingham AL is the number one television market in the country for college football. Chapel Hill, Charlottesville, and Syracuse are rounding errors.

Check out Pareto. Yes, the data is skewed. But it’s predictably skewed. Hardwringing isn’t going to change that. Alabama is what, a $150 million program. In five years, it will be $250 million. It’s the same thing that happened to the NFL. Everyone today loves KC … and few remember Pottsville.

I grew up in Alabama. My old gf was a member of the Bryant tribe. It is inconceivable that Bama will yield to anything other than being Number One. Or die trying. The money machine is massive. Massive.

If the ACC wants to be relevant, it has to manage itself to relevance. But, when they had it … in basketball … they successfully managed themselves into irrelevance. Not a great strategy.

 

[Roswellgoldmember]

If your look at the titles for the ACC, SEC, Big, PAC, and Big XII, the vitriol for SEC propaganda may be a bit misplaced.

The Big 10 also has a much better rep than the ACC without the SEC’s results. Washington was seen as better than FSU even pre-injury IIRC and what had the PAC done in the past decade? Why is the Big XII without Texas and OU still relevant at all?

The ACC PR failure isn’t about people thinking thr SEC is better, it has been at the top for sure.

It’s that people think anyone else is clearly better - or even comparable in the case of the old PAC and BigXII remnants.

The BIG gets some bump because of their massive fans bases and the historic, blue blood nature of several of their teams. Not saying anyone here but that's something most people in the south in my experience don't get, that those are large state schools with huge fanbases, similar to the SEC. UNC is maybe the only example that we have, but with a fickle football fanbase. Clemson has a large fanbase but it's evenly split in state with USC, and in a small population state. UF dominates Florida, I guess we control Virginia but that's really it.

FSU themselves has done more to hurt the ACC's reputation than any other factor, there is no way that anyone should perceive the go forward Big 12, without Texas and Oklahoma as anywhere close to ACC much less better than.

 

[cpf2001]

The BIG gets some bump because of their massive fans bases and the historic, blue blood nature of several of their teams. Not saying anyone here but that's something most people in the south in my experience don't get, that those are large state schools with huge fanbases, similar to the SEC.

FSU themselves has done more to hurt the ACC's reputation than any other factor, there is no way that anyone should perceive the go forward Big 12, without Texas and Oklahoma as anywhere close to ACC much less better than.

Yeah the fanbase size element is interesting because the ACC has lost that game, and it’s costly when programs go through down periods, but it’s also not clear to me that the ACC had other moves to make. Were there realistic giant-thick-or-thin-national-fanbase programs available instead of Miami and VT or any of the more recent additions? A Hail Mary to get UT and OU after ATM went to the SEC, maybe? But would it have worked?

In a TV dominated world viewers get turned into money and the ACC programs are just at a huge disadvantage there. The pro leagues protect their smaller market teams to varying degrees, some way more than others - there’s nobody in the NCAA with the power to do that for the ACC even if they wanted to since conferences took over the TV deals.

The Big 10 may be necessary for GT for long term survival post-ACC but it’s not going to solve the problem of competing against much larger and richer schools.

It may not be premature to say the ACC failed to keep up but it’s hardly fair to say they didn’t try in expansion. They just made moves that didn’t work out.

 

[stinger78]

The ACC for decades was the premier basketball conference. No one complained about conference dominance, media bias, or conspiracy then. Well, a little.

Clemson, a few years ago, was a dominating football program. But Dabo made the call to abstain from NIL and the portal. That’s a self inflicted wound. FSU and Miami in the 1990s, likewise. Self-inflicted.

Birmingham AL is the number one television market in the country for college football. Chapel Hill, Charlottesville, and Syracuse are rounding errors.

Check out Pareto. Yes, the data is skewed. But it’s predictably skewed. Hardwringing isn’t going to change that. Alabama is what, a $150 million program. In five years, it will be $250 million. It’s the same thing that happened to the NFL. Everyone today loves KC … and few remember Pottsville.

I grew up in Alabama. My old gf was a member of the Bryant tribe. It is inconceivable that Bama will yield to anything other than being Number One. Or die trying. The money machine is massive. Massive.

If the ACC wants to be relevant, it has to manage itself to relevance. But, when they had it … in basketball … they successfully managed themselves into irrelevance. Not a great strategy.

Oh, yes, they did... a lot! Particularly UK and the SECheat.

There was a major complaint about how Tom Butters made sure there were 6-7 (of 8-9) ACC teams in the NCAAT every year, if at all possible. The tournament selection criteria were changed as a result.

 

[WreckinGT]

The BIG gets some bump because of their massive fans bases and the historic, blue blood nature of several of their teams. Not saying anyone here but that's something most people in the south in my experience don't get, that those are large state schools with huge fanbases, similar to the SEC. UNC is maybe the only example that we have, but with a fickle football fanbase. Clemson has a large fanbase but it's evenly split in state with USC, and in a small population state. UF dominates Florida, I guess we control Virginia but that's really it.

FSU themselves has done more to hurt the ACC's reputation than any other factor, there is no way that anyone should perceive the go forward Big 12, without Texas and Oklahoma as anywhere close to ACC much less better than.

The go forward Big 12 finished with 5 teams in the top 25 in football and currently have 7 teams in the top 25 in basketball. They aren't some podunk conference that can't compete in anything. They just lack a football bell cow like FSU.

 

[CEB]

Yeah the fanbase size element is interesting because the ACC has lost that game, and it’s costly when programs go through down periods, but it’s also not clear to me that the ACC had other moves to make.

this is not an insignificant factor or a new factor.
Fan base drove the gate take when that was the largest consideration
Fan base drove bowl destinations for years before we were worried about TV
Fan base drives TV eyeballs now and eyeballs drive media deals and $$$

The circle is picking up steam…
Fan base > TV eyeballs > media deals > $$$$ > success (wins) > fan base.

 

[cpf2001]

this is not an insignificant factor or a new factor.
Fan base drove the gate take when that was the largest consideration
Fan base drove bowl destinations for years before we were worried about TV
Fan base drives TV eyeballs now and eyeballs drive media deals and $$$

The circle is picking up steam…
Fan base > TV eyeballs > media deals > $$$$ > success (wins) > fan base.

TV is a big amplifying/separating factor though - there are a lot more fanbases big enough to sell out a stadium - especially when the team is good - than there are fanbases big enough to compete with Ohio State in TV viewership.

Similar with online retail for merchandise sales and the money that comes in that way. Much easier to get Tennessee gear in Washington State than it used to be.

 

[Vespidae]

Oh, yes, they did... a lot! Particularly UK and the SECheat.

There was a major complaint about how Tom Butters made sure there were 6-7 (of 8-9) ACC teams in the NCAAT every year, if at all possible. The tournament selection criteria were changed as a result.

So you are actually making my point, thanks. If everyone wants to pee on the SEC for football success (while politicking behind the scenes), shouldn't the same argument be made about the ACC?

The SEC built a football program and used it to expand into basketball. (It's been talked about for nearly 30 years, so no surprise.) But ... the ACC was unable to translate it's dominance of college basketball into adjacent sports (i.e., football).

It's not unheard of. But tbh, most of the ACC schools do not emphasize athletics as part of their academic/college experience. So, it's hard to sympathize that "we didn't get the results we wanted, but we didn't really care either". Everyone cares now. $$$$

 

[orientalnc]

B12 TV markets:

Houston
Dallas/Ft Worth
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Orlando

 

[Vespidae]

B12 TV markets:

Houston
Dallas/Ft Worth
Phoenix
Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Orlando

Birmingham exceeds Houston for CFB. In the car, but will get the most recent figures.

https://footballscoop.com/archive-news/eight-of-the-country-s-top-11-college-football-tv-markets-are-in-the-south

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I think “decades” is a bit overblown, but several years of consistent results will certainly be needed.
On the second part, I agree, I am not optimistic in the messaging from the ACC. If I were running the marketing campaign, I would stop the reactionary sniveling… “no, really, we’re competitive… seriously, we are..”
I’d use the current perception to our advantage. Tell everyone the ACC has been down and tout how it’s changing and the active measures being taken to change it (even if it’s all BS and eyewash). Then lean in hard to every out of conference win. When a couple of marquis wins come (and they will eventually), really double down on ACC football changing the game and challenging the “power structure” created by the media.

I say decades for a reason.

The ACC would have to dominate the SEC for five years in a row to get any kind of quick change in the narrative at this point. Problem is, that’s not going to happen. It will be a step forward and a step back each time because the SEC is not going to lose consistently to the ACC. Thus every ACC win will be seen as an outlier and every loss turns the clock back on making progress on changing the perception. And every SEC win makes pundits smugly confident in their narrative.

It doesn’t have to be that way, but, as you suggest, hoping the conference gets its media act together is a long shot. Without the conference pushing a pro ACC narrative AHEAD of winning, then winning won’t move the needle. This is why this past season we essentially got “The ACC hasn’t been good in the past so we are not going to consider FSU a particularly good team even though they are undefeated and won the conference.” The narrative that the ACC is a good conference needed to start years earlier. That’s how the SEC did it. But, the ACC seems totally unwilling to defend its conference.

That’s why it could take decades.

 

[CEB]

I say decades for a reason.

The ACC would have to dominate the SEC for five years in a row to get any kind of quick change in the narrative at this point. Problem is, that’s not going to happen. It will be a step forward and a step back each time because the SEC is not going to lose consistently to the ACC. Thus every ACC win will be seen as an outlier and every loss turns the clock back on making progress on changing the perception. And every SEC win makes pundits smugly confident in their narrative.

It doesn’t have to be that way, but, as you suggest, hoping the conference gets its media act together is a long shot. Without the conference pushing a pro ACC narrative AHEAD of winning, then winning won’t move the needle. This is why this past season we essentially got “The ACC hasn’t been good in the past so we are not going to consider FSU a particularly good team even though they are undefeated and won the conference.” The narrative that the ACC is a good conference needed to start years earlier. That’s how the SEC did it. But, the ACC seems totally unwilling to defend its conference.

That’s why it could take decades.

 

[Root4GT]

I don’t share your conclusion in two levels. First, since 2014, the CFP champ has been SEC 6, ACC 2, B1G 2. However, in 2022 OSU was every bit as good as UGA, and in 2016 Clem was every bit as good as Bama. Prior to that, in the 16 BCS years (1998-2013), you had 9 SEC champs, 2 ACC, 2 B12, 1 B1G, and 1 BE (now ACC). Many were very close games. Even with skewed selection, the ACC was 2nd in both paradigms. Better at the top? Sure, but not overwhelmingly so.

Second, The Narrative is a conference story. Compute P5 OOC for all teams and you’ll see a much more even picture.

So with 26 years of football champions and the SEC has won 15 of them and you think that is not a significant difference! Really! The next closes conferences have 4 in 26 years. That is what causes the National perception that the SEC has been the best football conference. There is no argument they have dominated winning the National Championship! The media is correct when they say they have been the best conference as winning the NC is what matters the most in the media world! As I said before people don't care about the lower tier of any conference!

 

[WreckinGT]

So with 26 years of football champions and the SEC has won 15 of them and you think that is not a significant difference! Really! The next closes conferences have 4 in 26 years. That is what causes the National perception that the SEC has been the best football conference. There is no argument they have dominated winning the National Championship! The media is correct when they say they have been the best conference as winning the NC is what matters the most in the media world! As I said before people don't care about the lower tier of any conference!

I don't completely disagree with you, but when Clemson was winning two out of three national championships it did basically nothing for the ACC or it's perception. In fact we had to listen to idiots like Finebaum talk about how Clemson is built like an SEC team.