One thing that has been lost in this (maybe I just lost it?) is the notion that ESPN has a contract thru ‘27 and an OPTION to exercise thru ‘36.
That’s the biggest bombshell in all of this, IMO, and I have seen it floated once in the FSU complaint and nothing about it again. No refuting it by ACC or ESPN and no one talking about it. Did I miss it?
Two things to consider with that:
1. If the ACC is as weak as some believe it is, there is no way ESPN would exercise the option regardless of anything else. I’m not sure that’s the case, but we’re going to find out soon if the FSU complaint is correct.
2. Options have all terms defined.. You can refuse the option and then negotiate, but you don’t negotiate the option and nothing in the option is left to finalize at a later date. It’s “take it or leave it,” typically. That’s where it gets interesting…
- FSU laid out ‘28-‘36 as unknown because the option, by nature, is not guaranteed. But I suspect the terms ARE known and Potentially the terms are more favorable to the ACC than the current deal. If they weren’t, FSU likely would’ve used them as further evidence that the deal is bad. (ie; even if ESPN exercised the option, look how bad the terms are)
- Regardless of what the terms are, if ESPN money is tight, they won’t exercise the option. It has to be lucrative (duh). Just because the option terms may be favorable to ACC, doesn’t mean they are guaranteed since ESPN doesn’t HAVE to exercise.
- Finally, regardless of the option terms, if an option actually does exist, and a decision on the option has to be made in ‘25 (both alleged in FSU complaint), and FSU really wants out… a massive legal battle raging at option decision time might be nothing more than FSU trying to put a finger on the scale with regard to ESPNs decision.
Conclusion: here’s what I think is happening and where I think this is going.
- Option terms are good for ACC but probably still short of BIG / SEC numbers.
- FSU doesn’t care and wants out regardless.
- FSU also believes ESPN will not exercise the option and wants to guarantee it by further muddying the waters with lawsuits and unrest ongoing at decision time. They don’t need a legal win, just a raging conflict, get it?
- Once ESPN refuses the option, FSU is going to argue that the contract is over and the GOR is done. It seems the GOR agreement does suggest that its existence is to fulfill the ESPN contract obligations.
- ACC will argue that the GOR term is 2036 and that they have the right to continued negotiation with ESPN even if the original contract option is refused. IF we get here, candidly, this looks like a weak argument for the ACC. I would expect FSU to get real traction here, so if ESPN refuses the option, lookout.
Caveat to the Conclusion:
Is this freaking option real?!?
That’s back to my original question. It was like a fart in the wind… floated and disappeared. Weird, but maybe the ACC has a real interest in it disappearing from public view.
IF THE OPTION IS REAL, it’s the biggest factor in the whole darned thing because ESPN has the ability to end all of the legal battling with their decision (regardless of their decision), and that decision will come before the lawsuits will work out.
Option refused - ACC will likely have swift and major restructuring.
Option exercised - GOR stands, ACC stands, discussion turns to what happens post-2036.
