Conference Realignment

[leatherneckjacket]

No, but Troy won their conference and lost to a 7-5 Duke team. That was the point.

One data point is sufficient evidence that a G5 conference champ can never win a game in the CFP? Um, ok.

 

[Richard7125]

One data point is sufficient evidence that a G5 conference champ can never win a game in the CFP? Um, ok.

lol

 

[Richard7125]

In a 12 team playoff, those teams would be seeded against the #5 and #6 teams.

In reference to another post of yours, sure Michigan vs Ole Miss would get better ratings. However when, in a 16 team playoff, the #15 or #16 team takes a lead into halftime the ratings for the second half of that game would be higher than any college football game to date.

Another thing that happens in the bball tournament is that people will watch the team that beat their team until they lose. If your team loses in the first round, but the other team makes it to the final four it makes you feel better about the loss. The CFP "championship" game gets very good ratings, but there are lots of college football fans who have already checked out and don't watch. The "championship" game last year got lower ratings than the semi-final games. There is an idea that people want to watch the same teams play every year, some for the second or third time. However, looking at the ratings, many people go away once their team is out. The bball tournament gives every single D1 school a chance at the beginning of the year to be the champion. Fans get caught up with their team, and their teams chances. When their team is eliminated, tournament or conference tournament, people follow their opponents. Maybe root for or root against, but they follow. In the NFL, every single team has an opportunity at the beginning of the season. People become invested in their teams. Once eliminated in the regular season or playoffs, they will follow their opponents, to root for or against. In college football, the College Football Pageant will be made up of a select group of teams every year. In the four team system, there were 10-15 teams. Maybe one team in some years could break into the four, but it takes a LOT to do so. In the twelve team system there are maybe 15-20 teams that will represent nine or ten spots every single year. There will be lots of games with teams matching up for the third time that year. You might get 20 million to watch the "championship" game, but there are going to be a lot of people left on the table who simply lose interest before that game.

I agree with your example, but i disagree with how it would most likely be applied. Bama plays UGA next year. They could also meet in the SEC championship game. If both teams are selected for 12 team playoff, i would be willing to bet they would be on opposite sides of the bracket. if they both get to the championship game, i would be willing to bet the 3rd time around would generate the highest ratings.

ETA: this is how they do things in the NCAA BB tourney.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

lol

I agree it is laughable to suggest a G5 conference champion could never win a CFP game.

 

[stinger78]

I don’t understand why people are equating G5 conferences with P5 conferences. There’s a reason the 3rd place ACC generates $40m/year/school and the Mt West generates $4m/year/school. They might all be FBS, but they are in different leagues. If you want to have a separate playoff to reward G5 conference champions, have it at, but having >40% of your playoff teams from G5 schools is not a good solution.

Ps...I would 100% support the G5 schools having their own playoff. I may or may not watch it. I didn't watch any of the FCS playoffs this year (but some years i do watch it).

The issue to me is this: If the championship states that it includes your conferences, then why would your conference champs not be included? If it is truly that inferior a bunch of conferences, then let’s just call it what it is and go back to 1A and 1B and have a playoff for both? If somehow the PAC survives as a P5 conference, then you have 5 in each league (1A and 1B). That supports two 8-team playoffs with the 5 conference champs plus 3 at-large teams - 3 additional weeks to determine a champ. Could be done in bowl season and the six bowls now could handle it. First round at home of higher seeded team. The FF rotates through just as they are now. For 1B, use six other bowls that would like to be part of the rotation.

 

[GTsapper]

One data point is sufficient evidence that a G5 conference champ can never win a game in the CFP? Um, ok.

The blue chip ratio is still undefeated

 

[CEB]

Sankey 'disappointed' in CFP ranking backlash

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey told ESPN he was "disappointed in the acrimony" that ensued following the College Football Playoff selection committee's controversial final ranking.

www.espn.com

Sankey appalled at the blowback of the CFP decision. Color me surprised.

Unbelievable… well not really unbelievable at all.
He simultaneously condemns those who complained about the decision while he complains about the decision while sitting atop his moral high horse, upon which he would NEVER do something so reprehensible as to complain about the decision…. Even though he of all people has the biggest grievance since the SEC was the victim in all of this.
Sounds about right.

 

[slugboy]

The blue chip ratio is still undefeated

Playoff champions have high recruiting rankings and a high blue chip ratio.

Trying to be the team with a high blue chip ratio has cost a lot of teams a lot of dough, without getting them in the CFP. Texas (until this year), USC, Penn State—I think you could put together a good list.

Does Saban win because he gets great recruits, or does he get great recruits because he wins?

 

[stinger78]

Just wondering why you chose to ignore my post showing Tulane's victory in the Cotton Bowl last year vs. USC? You keep asking for examples but then ignore posts which gives examples.....

USC didn’t want to be there (see Sun Bowl, 2012). That’s the “reason” that will be offered.

 

[g0lftime]

I agree it is laughable to suggest a G5 conference champion could never win a CFP game.

Problem is winning 3 in a row against better seeds. Possible but not probable.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

USC didn’t want to be there (see Sun Bowl, 2012). That’s the “reason” that will be offered.

I remember seeing an ad for a betting service many years ago. They had an incredible winning percentage against the spread. I don’t gamble but I was intrigued by something they said that has stuck with me all these years later.

“There is no such thing as an upset.”

There point, I think, was that if you could know every single factor effecting both team’s’ performance you could predict the outcome with 100% accuracy. I think this is somewhat rhetorical (designed to explain why their background research was so thorough) but it suggests that game results are their own unique events never to be replicated again because the exact circumstances at that time cannot be repeated.

So, losers, whether supporters of a team, bettors who had money on the line, or those pushing some kind of regional superiority, will always find the excuse for the loss after the fact.

Ahem, so in conclusion…the only results that count are the results on the field but one cannot infer larger systemic results from a single data point. It is what it is.

Thank you all for coming today.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Problem is winning 3 in a row against better seeds. Possible but not probable.

That is not what the other font said. He suggested that a G5 Champ has no shot if winning a CFP game against a top 10 team. I am not arguing they can or will win the CFP, but they can certainly upset a team in the playoffs.

 

[Towaliga]

Problem is winning 3 in a row against better seeds. Possible but not probable.

That is true, but even a first round win against a better higher seed would be newsworthy and create more buzz for the next game (and isn’t that all about what the committee wants?).

 

[leatherneckjacket]

The blue chip ratio is still undefeated

Didn't Appalachian State beat Michigan a few years ago?

 

[stinger78]

You’ve read me many times question MOV since there are so many factors at play, both independent factors and interdependent factors. All carry statistical error rates, especially the interdependent ones. The result is these things are complex systems with lots of positive and negative feedback loops that cannot truly be predicted. The one thing we do know is the better teams usually win. I would suggest that we pick based on that and the rest is lagniappe, to use a Nawlins term. Better teams usually, but not always, win.

 

[TampaBuzz]

This would’ve been the way to go 40 years ago - back when there was strong parity among the 10 team SEC, Pac-10, Big 8, SWC, ACC, Big-10, and even then the outsider WAC had a BYU national championship, and that’s not even considering the strong independent teams including Miami, VT, Penn St, Notre Dame, BC, FSU, SCar, Pitt, WVU, etc etc.

Unfortunately we have gone way too far down the road of conference consolidation for a tournament of conference champs to be a realistic or IMO even a fair system. The (will never happen) answer is to break up the superconferences and return us to an age of conference sanity.

Yep. We would have to blow all of the existing conferences and tv contracts and declare that there will be eight conferences (about 16 teams each to include P5, G5, independents, etc.) going forward with the eight new conference champs (and only the conference champs) going to a national title tournament. Spread the tv money and P5 teams evenly across the new conferences and have at it. It will never happen, but one can always dream that sanity will prevail.

 

[Root4GT]

Playoff champions have high recruiting rankings and a high blue chip ratio.

Trying to be the team with a high blue chip ratio has cost a lot of teams a lot of dough, without getting them in the CFP. Texas (until this year), USC, Penn State—I think you could put together a good list.

Does Saban win because he gets great recruits, or does he get great recruits because he wins?

Yes

 

[stinger78]

Yep. We would have to blow all of the existing conferences and tv contracts and declare that there will be eight conferences (about 16 teams each to include P5, G5, independents, etc.) going forward with the eight new conference champs (and only the conference champs going to a national title tournament. Spread the tv money and P5 teams evenly across the new conferences and have at it. It will never happen, but one can always dream that sanity will prevail.

What? Spread the money evenly? Surely you jest.

 

[Root4GT]

I wonder why the question was changed from top ten to: top seven, with a short time span also. Almost like someone found all of the answers and modified the question to exclude those.

Seeding. No G5 is getting seeded higher than the top 7. Doubt the one G5 team gets seeded higher then 12 even if they are undefeated. Only possible if they beat a highly ranked P4 team in the regular season and the highly ranked P4 team stayed highly ranked all year.

Most of the Good G5 teams are now P4 teams. The Big 12 took BYU, Houston, Cincy and UCF.. UCF had the best conference record of the 4 in the Big 12 this year at 3-6. That is a tell.

SMU is now in the ACC. That’s 5 former G5 teams that all had at some point recently been very good G5 teams.

Anyone really think more than one G5 will make the CFP next year?

 

[TampaBuzz]

What? Spread the money evenly? Surely you jest.

I know, Right? Heaven forbid we have a few football seasons where ESPN and Fox do not predetermine whos in the tournament before the season starts.