Conference Realignment

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,198
The CFP used the last line in their guidance on leaving FSU out. Their guidelines gave them plenty of leeway. The CFP Committee is just as good as any model for picking the teams. There needs to be some leeway for the committee as there was this year. Had they picked FSU that would have been fine as well. The games turned out as good as possible and next year the 12 team CFP makes this debate pointless at this time.
We can agree to disagree on this. Personally I think a random group of people, with their own biases and agendas making decisions with no real criteria and no real transparency, and no real accountability is a pretty poor way to do anything.
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,049
The metrics in college football really are not very good or useful. The data points they use are not very comparable as with 130 FBS teams the actual comparison of teams vs teams is very low. Then of course these same metrics when they do have data form two teams where one team beat the other two times and the winner of both games never lost the metrics say the loser is better, Pretty much sums up how vaid the metrics are. Just additional information, no better or worse than a group of people watching multiple games of the 10 or so teams with the best records.
Everybody knows how to correctly organize a championship tournament. The pro organizations all do it based on division champions plus some win/loss scenarios to select remaining teams. All other NCAA sports do it based on conference champions plus some committee determined alternates. Even football in every level, except FBS, does it by conference champions plus remaining teams determined by a committee. FBS is the only NCAA sport, and only sport that I know of, that determines which conference champion to leave out based on a biased committee.

With the PAC12 imploding, there will be 9 actual conferences next year. Use every conference champion plus 3 or 7 at large teams. That would be a real championship instead of a pageant. Instead it looks like we are headed towards the five best conference champions, as determined by a committee, plus seven at large teams decided by the same committee. It will still be possible to have an undefeated G5 conference champion left out, even if they beat a team on the field that makes it in.

It will still be a totally biased process that will select teams based on politics. It will not be a championship. @slugboy I prefer a system based on pre-defined rules that everybody understands before the season starts to something driven on stats and models. For the at-large teams, I have stated before that IF conference champions are guaranteed a spot, then a committee isn't deciding who to exclude, they are deciding which non-qualifying teams get a second opportunity. Such a committee would not have been able to exclude FSU, Liberty, SMU, Miami OH, Boise State, or Troy. For those who say that an 8-5 Boise State would "deserve" to be in the playoffs, I would ask if the 9-7 Giants were the 2011 NFL champions or not. If you don't exclude those teams who do everything that is asked of them to get into the playoffs, then the only controversy is about teams who couldn't actually qualify to get in.
 

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,821
The games turned out as good as possible and next year the 12 team CFP makes this debate pointless at this time.

BUT…. Is that the goal?

I’ll admit, I may be hung up on semantics, but we are being sold a “playoff” specifically because we want it settled on the field rather than a straw poll.

If they want to sell us the “best three games possible using the four most competitive teams (as determined in their sole discretion) at the conclusion of the regular season, postseason tournament,” then, yeah, it was as good as possible.
 

Richard7125

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
466
We can agree to disagree on this. Personally I think a random group of people, with their own biases and agendas making decisions with no real criteria and no real transparency, and no real accountability is a pretty poor way to do anything.
Here is a link to the CFP protocols - Includes 1. mission statement and 2. principles.

Here is a link to the CFP committee and their Bios.

There are 133 FBS teams that play unbalanced schedules and few head to head matches. Applying unbending rules to an unbalanced schedule will not give you great results either.

I guess i would dislike the CFP committee too if i thought most people are dishonest and intentionally do crappy jobs.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,606
This issue could be addressed with revenue sharing with the players, which is likely to happen soon anyway.
I thought it would be interesting if bowl payouts were reduced in some capacity and the amount reduced becomes an NIL fund where the bowl organizers pay players NIL amounts to use the player's likeness in future ads. If you opt out of the game, the Bowl organizers would not need to include the player, as the player did not participate.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,606
The predictive models will put emphasis on point differential before garbage time, EPA, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. it’s not just who you beat but how thoroughly you dominated them and how good they were.
In boxing terms, if two boxers fought the same opponents, but one kept knocking their opponents out in early rounds, you’d favor the boxer with the knockouts.

For the playoffs, I like weighting resumes more—put in the teams that earned it, like FSU and Washington. Predictive rankings favor UGA and Oregon more.

There are so few games in a college football season, that people keep pointing to a game or two. In baseball, you have 162 games. The Braves can lose the season series to the Marlins, but be 15 games ahead of them, and no one bats an eye. No one reasonable says “the Marlins beat the Braves, so they’re a better team”. In college football, people get wrapped up in one game because there are so few of them.

Twelve games are so few that bad luck, an injury, or a bad 1:1 matchup can sway the outcomes a lot.

And, on the “avoiding the TCU blowout” question—TCU won their semifinal. They belonged in the CFP. UGA would’ve been a bad matchup for almost anyone.
Since you brought up EPA, EPA legit hates Washington. Their EPA diff was 18th compared to Oregon's 1st (Even FEI has Oregon as the best team still). This is another reason why I think using pure predictive stats to determine playoff contenders is a joke. Resume rankings are the correct choice.
1704402946030.png


Honestly, if we were picking who we thought the "best" teams were, I'd have had Oregon over Texas and UGA over Alabama. However, I think using "best" for playoffs is egregiously bad.
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,049
There are 133 FBS teams that play unbalanced schedules and few head to head matches. Applying unbending rules to an unbalanced schedule will not give you great results either.
Did the 2011 Giants "deserve" to be in the playoffs at 9-7? You don't need to have unbending rules for all teams in the playoffs, but you should have a clear known path for every team in FBS to get there. As it was this year, a P5(4) team can schedule strong OOC, win every game, and still be excluded.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,198
Here is a link to the CFP protocols - Includes 1. mission statement and 2. principles.

Here is a link to the CFP committee and their Bios.

There are 133 FBS teams that play unbalanced schedules and few head to head matches. Applying unbending rules to an unbalanced schedule will not give you great results either.

I guess i would dislike the CFP committee too if i thought most people are dishonest and intentionally do crappy jobs.
Corporations also have plenty of mission statements and guidelines that supposedly shape the culture of their companies and keep them on ethical footing. As does the US Government. Do you trust them? In your opinion are they being honest all of the time and doing the best they can do?

In essence, no, I do not trust people in this type of situation. It is a high pressure and high dollar situation with many wealthy and powerful stakeholders who are undoubtedly throwing their weight around in the process. There is no transparency at all so we really have no idea what goes on behind the closed doors in secrecy. The criteria is bendable enough to allow pretty much anyone in and do whatever you want. At least with the BCS you knew where the coaches, writers, and computers stood. You don't even get that now.
 

Richard7125

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
466
Did the 2011 Giants "deserve" to be in the playoffs at 9-7? You don't need to have unbending rules for all teams in the playoffs, but you should have a clear known path for every team in FBS to get there. As it was this year, a P5(4) team can schedule strong OOC, win every game, and still be excluded.
NFL does not equal College Football. As many point there is more parity in the NFL than pretty much any other sport.
 

Richard7125

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
466
Everybody knows how to correctly organize a championship tournament. The pro organizations all do it based on division champions plus some win/loss scenarios to select remaining teams. All other NCAA sports do it based on conference champions plus some committee determined alternates. Even football in every level, except FBS, does it by conference champions plus remaining teams determined by a committee. FBS is the only NCAA sport, and only sport that I know of, that determines which conference champion to leave out based on a biased committee.

With the PAC12 imploding, there will be 9 actual conferences next year. Use every conference champion plus 3 or 7 at large teams. That would be a real championship instead of a pageant. Instead it looks like we are headed towards the five best conference champions, as determined by a committee, plus seven at large teams decided by the same committee. It will still be possible to have an undefeated G5 conference champion left out, even if they beat a team on the field that makes it in.

It will still be a totally biased process that will select teams based on politics. It will not be a championship. @slugboy I prefer a system based on pre-defined rules that everybody understands before the season starts to something driven on stats and models. For the at-large teams, I have stated before that IF conference champions are guaranteed a spot, then a committee isn't deciding who to exclude, they are deciding which non-qualifying teams get a second opportunity. Such a committee would not have been able to exclude FSU, Liberty, SMU, Miami OH, Boise State, or Troy. For those who say that an 8-5 Boise State would "deserve" to be in the playoffs, I would ask if the 9-7 Giants were the 2011 NFL champions or not. If you don't exclude those teams who do everything that is asked of them to get into the playoffs, then the only controversy is about teams who couldn't actually qualify to get in.
I’m usually on board with your posts, but I disagree. Including a bunch of G5 conference winners will not turn your “pageant” into a legitimate playoff. Keep in mind all of your P4 champions are going to be in the playoffs whether you include the G5 winners or not. Is the playoff more legitimate by including 5 teams from G5 conferences versus 5 additional at-large P4 schools? Which playoff scenario below do you think is more difficult to win?

A: Michigan, Washington, Texas, FSU, Alabama, UGA, OSU, Oregon, Missou, Penn St, Ole Miss, Oklahoma
Or
B: Michigan, Washing, Texas, FSU, Alabama, SMU, Liberty, Miami OH, Boise St, Troy, plus UGA and OSU at large.

I would argue the "B" scenario is more of a pageant because you have a lot of window dressing with G5 conference winners.
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,049
Which playoff scenario below do you think is more difficult to win?
What I believe or what Bill Hancock believes is the problem with the current system, and with the 2024 system.

If this year were a system in which every conference champion got in, and Boise State ended up winning the tournament would you argue that they aren't the champions because the fourth team from the SEC was left out? It goes back to what people are asking in this thread. Do we want a national championship or a TV event for the best viewership? In an actual championship tournament, Ole Miss could argue that they might had won if they had gotten in. However, they would have had the opportunity to guarantee a spot by winning the game against Alabama and the rematch with the mutts. They would have known exactly what it takes to earn a spot. Even with the 12 team playoffs it is possible for a team to schedule very tough OOC, go undefeated, and still not make it in to the playoffs. Maybe Liberty would have lost as bad in the playoffs as they did in the Fiesta Bowl. But that is only a belief, it isn't a fact.

What I would like to see is a system where every single team knows exactly how they can qualify for the playoffs before the season begins, instead of only depending on Bill Hancock's feelings in the matter.
 

Root4GT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,373
Everybody knows how to correctly organize a championship tournament. The pro organizations all do it based on division champions plus some win/loss scenarios to select remaining teams. All other NCAA sports do it based on conference champions plus some committee determined alternates. Even football in every level, except FBS, does it by conference champions plus remaining teams determined by a committee. FBS is the only NCAA sport, and only sport that I know of, that determines which conference champion to leave out based on a biased committee.

With the PAC12 imploding, there will be 9 actual conferences next year. Use every conference champion plus 3 or 7 at large teams. That would be a real championship instead of a pageant. Instead it looks like we are headed towards the five best conference champions, as determined by a committee, plus seven at large teams decided by the same committee. It will still be possible to have an undefeated G5 conference champion left out, even if they beat a team on the field that makes it in.

It will still be a totally biased process that will select teams based on politics. It will not be a championship. @slugboy I prefer a system based on pre-defined rules that everybody understands before the season starts to something driven on stats and models. For the at-large teams, I have stated before that IF conference champions are guaranteed a spot, then a committee isn't deciding who to exclude, they are deciding which non-qualifying teams get a second opportunity. Such a committee would not have been able to exclude FSU, Liberty, SMU, Miami OH, Boise State, or Troy. For those who say that an 8-5 Boise State would "deserve" to be in the playoffs, I would ask if the 9-7 Giants were the 2011 NFL champions or not. If you don't exclude those teams who do everything that is asked of them to get into the playoffs, then the only controversy is about teams who couldn't actually qualify to get in.
Why do the non P5 conferences need to be included? Having an interesting tournament and Crowning the Tournament winner is better than having several 45-15 games the first week. Football is simply different in #1 it is the money making sport that allows most other NCAA sports to exist. Always remember rule #1. The rest is just who cares. Every G5 Conference Champion lost their Bowl Game to mid level P5 teams. They can have their own tournament if they want!
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,049
Why do the non P5 conferences need to be included? Having an interesting tournament and Crowning the Tournament winner is better than having several 45-15 games the first week. Football is simply different in #1 it is the money making sport that allows most other NCAA sports to exist. Always remember rule #1. The rest is just who cares. Every G5 Conference Champion lost their Bowl Game to mid level P5 teams. They can have their own tournament if they want!
Then split FBS football. The NCAA is already talking about splitting it up between professional and non-professional teams. Don't call the winner of the current system, nor even the expanded playoffs the National Champion. It is an entertainment exercise, not a championship.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,198
Why do the non P5 conferences need to be included? Having an interesting tournament and Crowning the Tournament winner is better than having several 45-15 games the first week. Football is simply different in #1 it is the money making sport that allows most other NCAA sports to exist. Always remember rule #1. The rest is just who cares. Every G5 Conference Champion lost their Bowl Game to mid level P5 teams. They can have their own tournament if they want!
You won't avoid this by only having P5 schools. UGA would have played Ole Miss this year, who they already beat by 35. The vast majority of P5 teams are going to get blown out, even in their in their best years if they take on the elite programs. In reality we need a subdivision with about 10-15 teams that can actually compete for championships. Then the rest of us can have a real playoff.
 

LT 1967

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
546
The attached may be of Interest concerning FSU and ACC. Florida Attorney General's public records Request to ACC.
 

Attachments

  • FSU---Public Records Request to ACC.pdf
    158.1 KB · Views: 34

yeti92

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,194
Why do the non P5 conferences need to be included? Having an interesting tournament and Crowning the Tournament winner is better than having several 45-15 games the first week. Football is simply different in #1 it is the money making sport that allows most other NCAA sports to exist. Always remember rule #1. The rest is just who cares. Every G5 Conference Champion lost their Bowl Game to mid level P5 teams. They can have their own tournament if they want!
Because it gives everybody in FBS a fair shot, and more people are interested when everybody has a fair shot.
 

cpf2001

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,390
I’m usually on board with your posts, but I disagree. Including a bunch of G5 conference winners will not turn your “pageant” into a legitimate playoff. Keep in mind all of your P4 champions are going to be in the playoffs whether you include the G5 winners or not. Is the playoff more legitimate by including 5 teams from G5 conferences versus 5 additional at-large P4 schools? Which playoff scenario below do you think is more difficult to win?

A: Michigan, Washington, Texas, FSU, Alabama, UGA, OSU, Oregon, Missou, Penn St, Ole Miss, Oklahoma
Or
B: Michigan, Washing, Texas, FSU, Alabama, SMU, Liberty, Miami OH, Boise St, Troy, plus UGA and OSU at large.

I would argue the "B" scenario is more of a pageant because you have a lot of window dressing with G5 conference winners.
Any P4 at large had a chance to earn their way in on the field. Adding the “window dressing” in the form of G5 teams is less political than adding opinion-based at-large conference losers. It helps keep the regular season and conference championships important too.

It also provides some really important counter-pressure to things continuing to consolidate into two power conferences. Jumping ship to be a well-paid also-ran in the SEC or Big 10 suddenly looks less attractive. Of course, that’s why it will never happen too. ;)
 

JacketOff

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,013
In reality we need a subdivision with about 10-15 teams that can actually compete for championships. Then the rest of us can have a real playoff.
But then you’ll probably just have a group of 5-10 that will win all the championships in the 2nd tier.

They’re never going to be any sort of parity in college sports until there’s actual enforced regulation. Terms and conditions need to be set for player and coach movement, revenue sharing, salary negotiations, salary caps/floors, the available pool of officials, and plenty more. Then there needs to be actual fair and just enforcement of the rules with penalties set in stone. Not arbitrarily determined based on who self-reported what, and how they handled it internally.

If college athletics are going to be turned into a professional endeavor, it needs to be treated as such. If you don’t have any/all of the above, you can divide the teams into as many subdivisions as you want and there still won’t be parity. The schools/programs/teams willing to circumvent the rules and use the lack of enforcement to their advantage will continue to win more than the ones trying to do it the “right way.”
 
Top