Conference Realignment

[BilldGopher]

Serious question from a non-recruiting-expert: How does GT in the B1G give the other teams in that conference access to recruiting in the ATL? Can’t they recruit there anyway? Or is it because they’d be playing games at Tech, and would therefore be in the local press (to the extent that the local press cares about GT games)?

Will just jump in that Minnesota has had a nice Georgia pipeline for over 10 years. Probably the best catch was Rashod Bateman out of Tift County who UGA went after at the last minute and he stayed with Minnesota. As I'm orginally from Marietta, have a great picture of my kid with a Lassiter HS grad from 2004 or so under Coach Mason. So, only saying that B1G programs are of course already crutin' the Southeast but giving a B1G-GT versus whoever B1G...now that even includes the Ducks...might have exposure with HS coaches and parents that wouldn't be there otherwise.

 

[UgaBlows]

Will just jump in that Minnesota has had a nice Georgia pipeline for over 10 years. Probably the best catch was Rashod Bateman out of Tift County who UGA went after at the last minute and he stayed with Minnesota. As I'm orginally from Marietta, have a great picture of my kid with a Lassiter HS grad from 2004 or so under Coach Mason. So, only saying that B1G programs are of course already crutin' the Southeast but giving a B1G-GT versus whoever B1G...now that even includes the Ducks...might have exposure with HS coaches and parents that wouldn't be there otherwise.

That recruiting exposure in Atlanta would be huge for BIG teams, I could see them incentivizing getting Miami for the same reason. The tv markets, Ga and Fla recruiting, and AAU status are big positives in our favor.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Not sure where to put this but I can’t help but believe that teams that get squeezed out of any chance of winning anything significant produce fans who care less and less in general about the sport.

The last few years, as the system seems to get more and more rigged, and teams like Tech have less and less of a chance of winning against significant competition, I have watched the least amount of football in my life.

This is why I’m all in on expanded playoffs. HOPE is the secret ingredient for fans. Without HOPE people lose interest. As you pointed out, by the end of September 75% of all teams have lost hope for the playoffs. By mid October there will be about 8 teams with HOPE left for the 4 spots. The NFL, NBA, and even the stodgy folks of MLB have figured it out.

Remember that feeling we all had with CPJ as coach when every season we had hope to win the Coastal deep into the season. Those days for GT fans may be over now that it’s a simple 2 best records.

 

[AUFC]

This is why I’m all in on expanded playoffs. HOPE is the secret ingredient for fans. Without HOPE people lose interest. As you pointed out, by the end of September 75% of all teams have lost hope for the playoffs. By mid October there will be about 8 teams with HOPE left for the 4 spots. The NFL, NBA, and even the stodgy folks of MLB have figured it out.

Remember that feeling we all had with CPJ as coach when every season we had hope to win the Coastal deep into the season. Those days for GT fans may be over now that it’s a simple 2 best records.

I hate this ACC game 1 nonsense we keep doing as well. Our HOPE for Charlotte is over by the first weekend of September every season.

 

[RonJohn]

ACC slow to react...SHOCKING (<-- sarcasm). Even I, some random guy on a GT messageboard, suggested this idea years ago when it was more feasible (remember my suggestion of keeping the ACC moniker, but calling it the All Coast Conference?). It would have put some of the most prestigious public and private schools in the US in one conference.



GOR most definitely played a role. I doubt some of the bigger "brands" in the ACC would have voted for this without a serious reduction in the GOR schedule. The conference administrators have actively chosen to drown everyone together at the expense of risking a couple of members escaping to another ship.

From what I understand, the ACC was in discussions for several weeks. ESPN is the bigger reason that things didn't work out.

 

[Root4GT]

It was part of their contract with the B12.
The new B12 contract with ESPN (but interestingly not FOX), had a pro rata piece where if the B12 added a P5 school than ESPN would increase its payment to the B12 conference equivalent to the current share. Reportedly, the agreement allowed for this to happen for up to 4 P5 schools.
B12 contract is reportedly worth $31.7M per school with ESPN owning 2/3 of the media rights and FX owning 1/3. So ESPN is effectively paying B12 just over 20M per school.
By adding the 4 PAC schools the B12 has effectively increased its payout from ESPN by $80M per year (though its per share remains unchanged). Basically they got ESPN to pay for their explansion.

Thanks great info. That’s not in the cards for many of the suggestions on this site for the ACC adding odd teams

 

[Northeast Stinger]

A star is born.

 

[Techster]

From what I understand, the ACC was in discussions for several weeks. ESPN is the bigger reason that things didn't work out.

ACC and PAC12 are getting squeezed. When you wait till the last minute and you're desperate...well, you know what they say about desperation. This was a move that needed to be made as soon as USC and UCLA announced they were leaving the PAC 12...or before then.

ESPN has ZERO desire or motivation to adjust anything for the ACC. They have the ACC locked into what may be their most profitable collegiate media agreement. Once the GOR ends, and the ESPN's agreement with the ACC ends, the next phase of conference consolidation, and media entity cutting costs will continue.

In the long run, the valuable teams in the ACC will be absorbed by the either one of the SEC/B1G/or BIG12. Everyone else will find themselves scrambling for their existence like Washington State, Oregon State. Stanford and Cal have "lowered" themselves and are meeting with the Mountain West conference next week. That's less money ESPN will need to spread around, especially if certain teams go to the SEC or BIG12. They will save themselves billions of dollars all the while still able to fill their time slots across 4 time zones with pretty much the same relevant teams.

Anyone who thinks the ACC GOR is actually a means of stability for the next 13 years is kidding themselves. It's only a temporary reprieve...the turmoil within the ACC will grow as the revenue gap between the ACC and other conferences grow. FSU is the first ones to open their loud mouths...next will be Clemson and Miami...then UNC...then UVA? The point is, and I've said this repeatedly, the ACC "brands" that deem themselves on the level of the elite national programs do not want to sit by on the sidelines as their "peers" pull away from them financially.

 

[forensicbuzz]

This is why I’m all in on expanded playoffs. HOPE is the secret ingredient for fans. Without HOPE people lose interest. As you pointed out, by the end of September 75% of all teams have lost hope for the playoffs. By mid October there will be about 8 teams with HOPE left for the 4 spots. The NFL, NBA, and even the stodgy folks of MLB have figured it out.

Remember that feeling we all had with CPJ as coach when every season we had hope to win the Coastal deep into the season. Those days for GT fans may be over now that it’s a simple 2 best records.

But is we go to 2 super-conferences or to 1 CFB group, all those teams that had hope at the end of September have no hope EVER, and they lose interest in the top group.

 

[orientalnc]

 

[RonJohn]

Anyone who thinks the ACC GOR is actually a means of stability for the next 13 years is kidding themselves. It's only a temporary reprieve...the turmoil within the ACC will grow as the revenue gap between the ACC and other conferences grow. FSU is the first ones to open their loud mouths...next will be Clemson and Miami...then UNC...then UVA? The point is, and I've said this repeatedly, the ACC "brands" that deem themselves on the level of the elite national programs do not want to sit by on the sidelines as their "peers" pull away from them financially.

I don't think it will force stability until the end of the contract, but I do think it will force stability for at least another 7 years or so. The price is just far too steep to get out of the conference now. Getting out means having nothing to offer to a new conference, and no way to make media money as an independent. The ACC is locked in to ESPN and to each other for the near future.

I have no idea how the conversations with Oregon and Washington went, but I would think that the GOR is part of the reason that it took so long to do anything. ESPN doesn't want to pay a lot more, and Oregon and Washington were hoping for Big10 invites. If ESPN would have paid more, and the GOR length was reduced to the end of the new Big10 contracts, both of those schools would have been more likely to join. In that situation, I don't think the Big10 would have invited them since they would have had a chance to get them after this contract.

FSU is making a lot of noise right now, but they have zero leverage. If they had leverage, they would be using that behind the scenes instead of shouting nonsense to the public. They are trying to create a public perception that the ACC needs to take from other programs to give FSU more in order to survive. I see it as exactly the opposite. If the ACC is weak enough to give in to bogus demands from FSU, then it has no chance of surviving in the future.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Sums it up pretty well.

 

[Lil G]

A star is born.

Dang and multiple people liked it. Cmon y’all

 

[slugboy]

Well, in the PAC-4, at least half the schools hate their commish today



To be fair, I’m sure they all are done with him

(It was a PAC12 prez who made the call, but still “ouch”)

 

[Techster]

I don't think it will force stability until the end of the contract, but I do think it will force stability for at least another 7 years or so. The price is just far too steep to get out of the conference now. Getting out means having nothing to offer to a new conference, and no way to make media money as an independent. The ACC is locked in to ESPN and to each other for the near future.

I have no idea how the conversations with Oregon and Washington went, but I would think that the GOR is part of the reason that it took so long to do anything. ESPN doesn't want to pay a lot more, and Oregon and Washington were hoping for Big10 invites. If ESPN would have paid more, and the GOR length was reduced to the end of the new Big10 contracts, both of those schools would have been more likely to join. In that situation, I don't think the Big10 would have invited them since they would have had a chance to get them after this contract.

FSU is making a lot of noise right now, but they have zero leverage. If they had leverage, they would be using that behind the scenes instead of shouting nonsense to the public. They are trying to create a public perception that the ACC needs to take from other programs to give FSU more in order to survive. I see it as exactly the opposite. If the ACC is weak enough to give in to bogus demands from FSU, then it has no chance of surviving in the future.

FSU has zero leverage, and the rest of other ACC schools are in the same boat. However, having zero leverage and no way out of the ACC GOR is not the same thing as stability. There will be internal turmoil until the GOR gets resolved...we saw that with the "Magnificent 7" stirring up the dust until the ACC agreed as a league to do uneven revenue sharing. With that, the ACC has already given in to the bigger brands in the ACC, and thus shown signs of weakness. If anyone thinks the ACC survives in its current makeup after the GOR ends, it's wishful thinking.

The ACC, for all intents and purposes, is living on borrowed time. There is NO WAY the ACC will make up for the revenue gap between the B1G/SEC (and probably the BIG12) by the time the GOR has ended. The bigger brands in the ACC are all fish waiting for the damn to open so they can swim into bigger waters.

EVERYONE understands it's FOX and ESPN pulling the conference realignment strings. B1G was happy to keep Oregon and Washington out of the conference until the Big12 got involved. B1G had a decision to make...either fast forward their west coast plans by a decade, or lose Oregon and Washington (two of the biggest assets on the West Coast) to the Big12. Because of the Big12 GOR's implications, the B1G and Fox came to a happy medium agreement with Oregon and Washington to take less money upfront and become a full share member on the next TV contract. Yes, it temporarily disadvantageous to Oregon and Washington to take less than a full share of B1G revenue, but in the long run, they will still get a full share and be in one of the best conferences. THAT is more stability than what's going on anywhere else outside of the SEC/B1G/Big12.

Those 3 conferences are thinking on a large scale while the ACC it fighting amongst ourselves to survive. Does that in any way sound stable to anyone?

 

[cpf2001]

The way the ACC catches up in TV money is if come 2030-2032ish, the same money for the Big 10 and the SEC is no longer there. (I don't personally think the Big 12 is going to pass the ACC in their next deal at that point, but those two other leagues already have).

But that's also not stability: in all likelihood, it means even less money would be there in 2036 for the next ACC deal.

I think the next two years will be telling about which of these two options is better: "hold on to 2036 to benefit from the long term in a changing landscape" vs "blow it up in 2030ish because the media landscape got their stuff figured out and we can't afford to wait longer"

I also don't think the Big 12 is that stable. Their goal is what the ACC already has. But any breakout programs they have are gonna be just as easy to seduce away by the SEC or Big 10 as an FSU would be.

 

[Richard7125]

FSU has zero leverage, and the rest of other ACC schools are in the same boat. However, having zero leverage and no way out of the ACC GOR is not the same thing as stability. There will be internal turmoil until the GOR gets resolved...we saw that with the "Magnificent 7" stirring up the dust until the ACC agreed as a league to do uneven revenue sharing. With that, the ACC has already given in to the bigger brands in the ACC, and thus shown signs of weakness. If anyone thinks the ACC survives in its current makeup after the GOR ends, it's wishful thinking.

The ACC, for all intents and purposes, is living on borrowed time. There is NO WAY the ACC will make up for the revenue gap between the B1G/SEC (and probably the BIG12) by the time the GOR has ended. The bigger brands in the ACC are all fish waiting for the damn to open so they can swim into bigger waters.

EVERYONE understands it's FOX and ESPN pulling the conference realignment strings. B1G was happy to keep Oregon and Washington out of the conference until the Big12 got involved. B1G had a decision to make...either fast forward their west coast plans by a decade, or lose Oregon and Washington (two of the biggest assets on the West Coast) to the Big12. Because of the Big12 GOR's implications, the B1G and Fox came to a happy medium agreement with Oregon and Washington to take less money upfront and become a full share member on the next TV contract. Yes, it temporarily disadvantageous to Oregon and Washington to take less than a full share of B1G revenue, but in the long run, they will still get a full share and be in one of the best conferences. THAT is more stability than what's going on anywhere else outside of the SEC/B1G/Big12.

Those 3 conferences are thinking on a large scale while the ACC it fighting amongst ourselves to survive. Does that in any way sound stable to anyone?

the only reason the Big12 is stable is because none of the other conferences want any of their teams.

 

[alagold]

ACC and PAC12 are getting squeezed. When you wait till the last minute and you're desperate...well, you know what they say about desperation. This was a move that needed to be made as soon as USC and UCLA announced they were leaving the PAC 12...or before then.

ESPN has ZERO desire or motivation to adjust anything for the ACC. They have the ACC locked into what may be their most profitable collegiate media agreement. Once the GOR ends, and the ESPN's agreement with the ACC ends, the next phase of conference consolidation, and media entity cutting costs will continue.

In the long run, the valuable teams in the ACC will be absorbed by the either one of the SEC/B1G/or BIG12. Everyone else will find themselves scrambling for their existence like Washington State, Oregon State. Stanford and Cal have "lowered" themselves and are meeting with the Mountain West conference next week. That's less money ESPN will need to spread around, especially if certain teams go to the SEC or BIG12. They will save themselves billions of dollars all the while still able to fill their time slots across 4 time zones with pretty much the same relevant teams.

Anyone who thinks the ACC GOR is actually a means of stability for the next 13 years is kidding themselves. It's only a temporary reprieve...the turmoil within the ACC will grow as the revenue gap between the ACC and other conferences grow. FSU is the first ones to open their loud mouths...next will be Clemson and Miami...then UNC...then UVA? The point is, and I've said this repeatedly, the ACC "brands" that deem themselves on the level of the elite national programs do not want to sit by on the sidelines as their "peers" pull away from them financially.

Yep, like watching a train wreck in slo-motion. We could be in the Southern conf in 5 yrs.

 

[Techster]

the only reason the Big12 is stable is because none of the other conferences want any of their teams.

That's partially true, but they were still proactive and added some nice up and coming programs to shore up their stability. UCF and Cincy have shown they can be really good programs. BYU always has the potential to be a good program due to certain advantages. Arizona has the opportunity to be a VERY good program due to being one of the fastest growing states with a big media market.

Big12 was also the conference Oregon and Washington were going to join before Fox and the B1G stepped in. Speaks volumes that those two would rather join the Big12 over the ACC.

 

[Richard7125]

That's partially true, but they were still proactive and added some nice up and coming programs to shore up their stability. UCF and Cincy have shown they can be really good programs. BYU always has the potential to be a good program due to certain advantages. Arizona has the opportunity to be a VERY good program due to being one of the fastest growing states with a big media market.

Big12 was also the conference Oregon and Washington were going to join before Fox and the B1G stepped in. Speaks volumes that those two would rather join the Big12 over the ACC.

Oregon and Washington weren't choosing the Big12 over the ACC. The ACC evaluated the Pac12 schools and had no interest in Oregon and Washington.