Conference Realignment

bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
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ACC really feels next in the conference collapse scenarios, and Tech feels a lot more like UC Berkley than Colorado or Arizona. Time to go all in on academics I guess (that's the way the school was headed anyways)
 

RonJohn

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ACC really feels next in the conference collapse scenarios, and Tech feels a lot more like UC Berkley than Colorado or Arizona. Time to go all in on academics I guess (that's the way the school was headed anyways)
The hysteria is kind of comical. Last week everyone seemed to think that the ACC is screwed because nobody can leave because of the GOR. Now it seems that people think the ACC is going to just fall apart in spite of the GOR. Nothing is happening to the ACC for at least several more years. It is still more likely that the ACC adds teams instead of losing them. If FSU leaves and is successful in getting out of the GOR, then things will be different. That won't happen for several years, because any legal battles would take a while to settle. Most likely scenario is that nothing happens for at least another seven or eight years.
 

bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
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13
The hysteria is kind of comical. Last week everyone seemed to think that the ACC is screwed because nobody can leave because of the GOR. Now it seems that people think the ACC is going to just fall apart in spite of the GOR. Nothing is happening to the ACC for at least several more years. It is still more likely that the ACC adds teams instead of losing them. If FSU leaves and is successful in getting out of the GOR, then things will be different. That won't happen for several years, because any legal battles would take a while to settle. Most likely scenario is that nothing happens for at least another seven or eight years.
I don't think it's an immediacy, but most likely an eventuality. When the weakest money conference collapses, you can't just assume the next weakest is in a solid position. The ACC is extremely top heavy with sports revenue, and the top will want out whenever possible. Tech is not near the top in sport revenue (and the Big 10 is not that interested in having a "stake in Atlanta" like most of the fanbase assumes)
 

RonJohn

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I don't think it's an immediacy, but most likely an eventuality. When the weakest money conference collapses, you can't just assume the next weakest is in a solid position. The ACC is extremely top heavy with sports revenue, and the top will want out whenever possible. Tech is not near the top in sport revenue (and the Big 10 is not that interested in having a "stake in Atlanta" like most of the fanbase assumes)
FSU is pitching a fit at the moment. However, the ACC set up the GOR for exactly this type of scenario. Many people misunderstand what the GOR is. Basically, GT does not own the rights to any media presentation of any GT sports. The ACC owns it all. Same for FSU. If FSU leaves the conference, ESPN will still broadcast their games under the ACC agreement and will pay the money to the ACC, not to FSU. $120 million buyout fee is nothing compared to the fact that you don't have anything to market. FSU wants more than $40 million per year, (which is escalating), but the alternative is to pay $120 million and get zero instead of $40 million per year.

Also, the ACC is not the next weakest money conference. The ACC was third out of five. The ACC is still third out of four. The Big12 makes less money per team than the ACC, even with the new additions.

EDIT: By 13 years, when the GOR ends, or even in seven when many think there will be a chance of movement, the entire situation will be different. There might be more money available, or there might be a lot less money available for TV contracts. Three weeks ago, people didn't foresee what was happening now. Nobody has a clue what the situation will be like in seven years. The thing the ACC and all of the member schools should do is prepare for many circumstances, but not panic into acting stupid. (Like FSU is currently doing)
 

stinger 1957

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According to an Ohio State grad who was on here recently and posted, GT has been vetted by the BIG and meets all the criteria for BIG membership. There are other schools that also have been vetted and meet the criteria. He did not name any of them except some of the PAC 12 schools seems like he did mention.
 

stech81

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I don't think it's an immediacy, but most likely an eventuality. When the weakest money conference collapses, you can't just assume the next weakest is in a solid position. The ACC is extremely top heavy with sports revenue, and the top will want out whenever possible. Tech is not near the top in sport revenue (and the Big 10 is not that interested in having a "stake in Atlanta" like most of the fanbase assumes)
You may need to go drank a few beers, before you jump out a window.
 

bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
13
You may need to go drank a few beers, before you jump out a window.
I'm not depressed about it, I just think the fanbase is too optimistic. Was I the only person to just witness the collapse of a power 5 conference, where all the non-athletic focused programs got left out?
 

stech81

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I'm not depressed about it, I just think the fanbase is too optimistic. Was I the only person to just witness the collapse of a power 5 conference, where all the non-athletic focused programs got left out?
You may want to read and understand why the Pac10 failed. Read up the mistake that they did thinking they could run their own network which did not work. Look up Larry Scott the last PAC 12 commissioner
 

LT 1967

Jolly Good Fellow
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497
You may be onto the whole thing that is really going on, just wondering if the "7" schools that teamed together before are silently behind what FSU is doing, if not behind they're hoping it works out and maybe knew this was the route that would be taken. The whole thing comes tumbling down if FSU leaves IMO, maybe not immediately but in a short time I'm guessing and then it starts a "sort it out period" as to where everybody ends up. I have always felt that folks at the top in ACC schools were working behind the scenes to dissolve the ACC. It has always made sense to me that if all the ACC schools could work out amongst themselves the dissolution of the ACC that was the way to go. Not sure that is what is happening, but I wonder. The way I see it there are a few schools that end up with out a place to go but the majority (10 or 11) or possibly more end up with new conference, probably the big 3 of SEC, BIG 10, BIG 12. I include ND in my speculative numbers because they have to join the ACC if they take FB to a conference, I see them as having a say and being one of 15 at that point. IMO a court would rule that they have a say since their FB position is controlled by their agreement of having to go to the ACC if joining a conference. I'm not a lawyer so don't put your money on my opinion. ;)

Take a look at the attached showing part of some comments made by UNC AD Bubba Cunningham. He was being interviewed by a Raleigh radio show concerning the FSU comments.
To me, he is showing a little Hypocrisy with these comments since UNC was part of the "Magnificent 7" investigating the GOR for a way out of the ACC.
 

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bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
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13
You may want to read and understand why the Pac10 failed. Read up the mistake that they did thinking they could run their own network which did not work. Look up Larry Scott the last PAC 12 commissioner
I've been reading along, and thinking that a conference has longevity just because of one media rights deal is hubris, especially when many of the schools are already looking for a way out. If you can't see the direction the sport is going towards (money grabbing), I don't know what to tell you bud. There are only ~2-5 really value revenue producing schools in the ACC for athletics (FSU, Clemson, maybe UNC, Miami, Duke in basketball). That is not a recipe for longevity.
 

RonJohn

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I've been reading along, and thinking that a conference has longevity just because of one media rights deal is hubris, especially when many of the schools are already looking for a way out. If you can't see the direction the sport is going towards (money grabbing), I don't know what to tell you bud. There are only ~2-5 really value revenue producing schools in the ACC for athletics (FSU, Clemson, maybe UNC, Miami, Duke in basketball). That is not a recipe for longevity.
Let me guess. You have a lot of rabid SEC friends and have forgotten how to think, except for trash talk sitting at the bar at Applebee's?
 

bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
13
Let me guess. You have a lot of rabid SEC friends and have forgotten how to think, except for trash talk sitting at the bar at Applebee's?
I'm a Tech alum and an engineer. Been a Tech fan my whole life. Been going to games yearly. Please don't attack my character, instead address the points I'm making. No, I don't think the ACC will dissolve next year. I'm looking at the next 10-20 years.
 
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RonJohn

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I'm a Tech alum and an engineer. Been a Tech fan my whole life. Been going to games yearly. Please don't attack my character, instead address the points I'm making.
I was trying to use humor, but I already have addressed your points.

Schools may be looking for a way out, but the conference pretty much fixed that in 2013, then again in 2016. The GOR is like giving the title of your house to the HOA. You can move it if the HOA anytime you want to, but you can't take the equity in your house with you. FSU can pay $120 million to leave the ACC, but then they don't have anything to market to another conference. They can't even market their games as an independent like ND. if you read the GOR and the ACC constitution, it is apparent, even to noon-lawyers, that 8 teams cannot disband the ACC, nor end the GOR. It works take 12 schools to disband the conference, and it works take event single school to make any change to the GOR. The schools, including FSU are stuck on the ACC. FSU is talking, much like sports fans trash talking in a bar. None of the ideas that have been spread actually make any realistic sense. Borrow money or get a private equity company to buy out the media rights? In the end, with the buyout and the media rights FSU would end up with less money in the long run than starting in the ACC. Private equity investing in college athletics, with almost no chance of a significant return? Private equity companies want returns in multiples, not a chance to maybe one day break even. If FSU leaves, it will mean more money for the rest of the ACC, and assume very lean years for FSU.
 

bentlloyd1

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
13
I was trying to use humor, but I already have addressed your points.

Schools may be looking for a way out, but the conference pretty much fixed that in 2013, then again in 2016. The GOR is like giving the title of your house to the HOA. You can move it if the HOA anytime you want to, but you can't take the equity in your house with you. FSU can pay $120 million to leave the ACC, but then they don't have anything to market to another conference. They can't even market their games as an independent like ND. if you read the GOR and the ACC constitution, it is apparent, even to noon-lawyers, that 8 teams cannot disband the ACC, nor end the GOR. It works take 12 schools to disband the conference, and it works take event single school to make any change to the GOR. The schools, including FSU are stuck on the ACC. FSU is talking, much like sports fans trash talking in a bar. None of the ideas that have been spread actually make any realistic sense. Borrow money or get a private equity company to buy out the media rights? In the end, with the buyout and the media rights FSU would end up with less money in the long run than starting in the ACC. Private equity investing in college athletics, with almost no chance of a significant return? Private equity companies want returns in multiples, not a chance to maybe one day break even. If FSU leaves, it will mean more money for the rest of the ACC, and assume very lean years for FSU.
Thank you, this is what I was looking for (I have not read into the details of the GOR), and reading tone on the internet can be tough. I still fear for the conference at the conclusion of the deal, but as you said, it can be hard to predict the landscape of CFB over a decade. Hopefully, Tech athletics can get a shot of success in football in the meantime.
 

TheStolenT

Jolly Good Fellow
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I’m no lawyer or conference head but seems like 4 is a nice round number for the super conference total so why not try and figure out how to make the ACC stronger in the chaos to end up with a big 10, big 12, sec, acc future? PAC is done, let’s try to be proactive and move forward since we are all tied together with this GOR
 

stinger 1957

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I always thought of anyone could get out it would be ND. Still likely true despite FSUs bluster. ND is a non-factor unless they inexplicably decide they want to be full member.
So are you saying they can go to another conference if they so decide? I thought they were required to join the ACC if they decide to join a conference. They are restricted from movement to another conference. That indicates to me they could have a case that they should have a say because they are in jeopardy. Do they end up being the 8th member of the gang of 7? The lynchpin so to speak. The swing vote.
 

RonJohn

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Thank you, this is what I was looking for (I have not read into the details of the GOR), and reading tone on the internet can be tough. I still fear for the conference at the conclusion of the deal, but as you said, it can be hard to predict the landscape of CFB over a decade. Hopefully, Tech athletics can get a shot of success in football in the meantime.
Yes, there are a lot of blogs and people on Twitter who are spewing nonsense. People are looking for facts to match what they believe instead of reviewing all of the factual information to see what the truth is. From my layman reading of the GOR and the ACC constitution and bylaws, eight teams cannot dissolve the conference. Internet people then found a section of NC law that says a nonprofit can be dissolved by a simple majority vote. But they ignored the rest of that statue which says - unless there is a different requirement in the constitution of the nonprofit. The ACC constitution requires a 3/4 vote to make any change to the constitution. As I said, people look for wait they want to see and ignore everything else.
 

GoJacketsInRaleigh

Ramblin' Wreck
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999
The B1G will eventually go from 18 to 24 with ACC schools when they can get out of the GOR stuff. I think the schools would be UNC, UVA, GT, FSU or Miami, Clemson (unless SEC will offer them), and Notre Dame. If ND still says no, then maybe Duke or both FSU/Miami.

The B1G will want the ATL market for television and recruiting. They will want in Florida. They will want the NC markets. Clemson is a brand. The Big 12 will take whatever leftovers the SEC doesn't want.
 

UgaBlows

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Yes, there are a lot of blogs and people on Twitter who are spewing nonsense. People are looking for facts to match what they believe instead of reviewing all of the factual information to see what the truth is. From my layman reading of the GOR and the ACC constitution and bylaws, eight teams cannot dissolve the conference. Internet people then found a section of NC law that says a nonprofit can be dissolved by a simple majority vote. But they ignored the rest of that statue which says - unless there is a different requirement in the constitution of the nonprofit. The ACC constitution requires a 3/4 vote to make any change to the constitution. As I said, people look for wait they want to see and ignore everything else.
You seem more calm and informed about all of this than most, if FSU weasels their way out of the ACC somehow, does the tv contract between espn and the remainder of the acc still stand?
 

Jerry the Jacket

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I think the Big 12 needs to absorb the remaining 4 PAC ? schools that would take them to 18 teams. The ACC should try to get to 18. They could coerce 3 big 12 schools, UCF, Cincinnati, and WVU and find a fourth maybe USF. The Big 12 could add another few schools to get to 18 like Boise State, San Diego State and SMU. I think that would stabilize things around 4 major conferences.

I don't think much else matters except jockeying for money and finding something that makes a bit of geographic sense. The Big 10 has enough money to travel out West so they can live with their west coast stepchildren.
 
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