Conference Realignment

Roswellgoldmember

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
98
All of you that keep talking about FSU and Clemson going to the BIG need to understand it ain't happening as things stand now because neither of those schools are "AAU" schools which at the present time is a requirement of the BIG in order to become a BIG member. Miami, GT, UNC, UVA, Pitt are AAU schools. OR, WA, Stanford, Cal, SC, UCLA, ASU are all AAU schools as well as AZ, Utah, but the last two are not in good media mkts which seems to be something the BIG finds important to them according to some of the officials of some of the BIG schools and looking at their expansion moves such as Rutgers (#1 media mkt- NY) , MD (Baltimore, DC, N. VA media mkt) , UCLA, SC # 2 media mkt. If the ACC breaks up my guess is FSU, Clemson end up in the SEC.
This doesn't fit the SEC's previous model of expansion. With the exception of Texas (and FSU and Clemson ain't UT), they've always expanded into new markets. I don't know about South Carolina but I lived in Florida for several years and UF dominates that state in terms of fan and media interest, and it doesn't matter big FSU or Miami win.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,211
Hard to say. FSU WANTS to be nationally relevant again, but it’s increasingly likely that’s not going to happen. It’s the prettiest girl in the sorority who spends Friday nights at home.

There‘s a feeling of desperation here.



If anyone is following, BOTH Barcelona and Real Madrid (Spanish top league's biggest teams) are both facing financial issues. There's a strong suspicion that Real Madrid is cooking the books and have massive debts hidden. This is what you get with PE firms.
 

rfjeff9

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
443
Borrowing half a billion dollars or whatever to get out of the ACC and move to the sec/Big 10 in a world where the money for new TV deals might be drying up is a bold move.
That's right. Espn is in a financial situation where they aren't willing to pay extra for much. Makes me think that the next round of bargaining with SEC won't be measly as lucrative as it is now. Espn overpaid. and it's biting them now.
 

Vespidae

Helluva Engineer
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Location
Auburn, AL


If anyone is following, BOTH Barcelona and Real Madrid (Spanish top league's biggest teams) are both facing financial issues. There's a strong suspicion that Real Madrid is cooking the books and have massive debts hidden. This is what you get with PE firms.

I think this is interesting but THOSE are professional franchises with consumer demand you can monetize. FSU, and college sports, isn’t. Unless you open a door you can’t walk back through.

Do you want the Saudis to control US college football?
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,211
I think this is interesting but THOSE are professional franchises with consumer demand you can monetize. FSU, and college sports, isn’t. Unless you open a door you can’t walk back through.

Do you want the Saudis to control US college football?

Oh, I agree with you. FSU does not fully understand the devil they're letting into their house with this investment structure. I'm really surprised the University and the State are even entertaining this idea.
 

cpf2001

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,221
if the Spurs get in trouble they can go through bankruptcy and get sold off etc as a private business. What would be the equivalent of that for an athletic department at a public university? And is there some sort of collateral or anything?

edit: it’s also hard for me to imagine that a public university system really has the high-finance/legal experience to make sure any contracts aren’t tilted wildly away from their favor
 

Vespidae

Helluva Engineer
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Auburn, AL
Oh, I agree with you. FSU does not fully understand the devil they're letting into their house with this investment structure. I'm really surprised the University and the State are even entertaining this idea.
I will bet that the University hasn’t run this by the State. But let’s say it works. Then what?

I think it’s more likely if this gets legs, the entire ACC considers it. It’s the easiest way for PIF to infiltrate college athletics.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,211
I will bet that the University hasn’t run this by the State. But let’s say it works. Then what?

I think it’s more likely if this gets legs, the entire ACC considers it. It’s the easiest way for PIF to infiltrate college athletics.

I would not want GT to be anywhere near this kind of deal given my experience with PE. If Barcelona and Real Madrid are having a hard time getting their footing back, what's it going to look like for the ACC teams...especially one like GT? We are already saddled with enough debt.
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
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5,848
Here is the article from CBSSports on WA and OR. My take is OR and WA are desperate just to find a conference and are willing to play at a greatly disadvantaged financial position just to be in a stable conference. I also believe this is bad for college football as a whole. I expect this will decrease interest in college football - especially on the West Coast. Given the valuation for OR and WA (probably the 2 most valuable programs left in the PAC), it shows why ACC taking PAC schools never happened. It would have decreased each ACC schools media share. B12 has the pro rata contract for P5 schools - though it will be interesting how the bubble seems to be bursting for media shares that when their contract is up at the end of the decade can they can a new contract that pays their schools what they are going to earn now. B12 Commish is playing a game where he expects to be able to eventually detach the football and basketball pieces of the media contract and get a bigger BB contract than everyone else while keeping a similar level for the FB contract.


"Momentum appeared headed in the direction of the Oregon and Washington departing for the Big Ten over the last couple of days, though a last-ditch effort was made Friday morning by the Pac-12 to keep the programs in the league, sources told CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. That made their futures a "coin toss" for a while, largely due to financial concerns over additional travel costs the programs would incur by journeying to Big Ten locations. Washington in particular was concerned those increased financial obligations could total more than $10 million per year for the university, sources said.

It is not believed Oregon and Washington will receive full $60 million media rights revenue shares from the Big Ten to change conferences. The AP reported late Thursday the programs were offered $30 million to $35 million annually. Such a steep addition to their expenses would significantly reduce one of the benefits of moving leagues.

For example, if the Big Ten is promising $30 million per year to Oregon and Washington -- only half of what other Big Ten teams are receiving from their new media rights deal -- the Ducks and Huskies subtracting $10 million each for additional travel would put their net revenue at $20 million. That is essentially the same number presented earlier this week when Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff divulged the streaming-centric Apple agreement."
 

ebb1

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
27
Not that I want to make the jump, but it might not be a bad idea to explore the Big12. If musical chairs start and the ACC implodes, I don't want us to be left without a chair
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
Seems like an Ambrose Bierce day

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To be positive is to be mistaken at the top of one's voice.

Ambrose Bierce

The hardest tumble a man can make is to fall over his own bluff.

Ambrose Bierce

Fidelity - a virtue peculiar to those who are about to be betrayed.

Ambrose Bierce
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
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5,848
With all the talk about TV money. Why are we not part of the conversation for the BIG (whatever)? No bigger TV hub in the south for college football than Atl. Seems to me that GT would be prime target for BIG to break SEC strangle hold on biggest TV market in south. UGA vs Miss St couldn’t bring in twice as many TV eyes as GT vs Penn St. On the same day. Am I wrong?

B1G is only expanding because the PAC is falling apart.

I'm sure the B1G has some ACC schools it would be very interested in but 2 things keep anything from happening right now.
First, B1G would have to pay more for the ACC schools than the PAC schools it is getting on the cheap. Any ACC school that wants to move is going to want a full share immediately. Not sure if any ACC schools are worth that right now.
Second, and more importantly, the GoR makes taking any ACC schools a losing proposition for both the B1G and SEC right now. There is no reason for them to even think about taking any ACC schools unless the school is free from the GoR.

This is where FSU is being financially dumb and why I now sort of agree with the UNC AD - "pay us the money and leave FSU."
If FSU were to pay the full amount of money they would owe to the ACC to get their media rights back and exit the conference that is going to be close to $600M. Even if ACC cuts them a break and lets them go for say $500M - they would still be losing so much net. Lets say they get $30M more per year for the next 12 years than they would by staying in the ACC (which is really unlikely given ACC is not $30M behind the SEC and B1G in payments right now) - that is still $360M. So unless they can leave the ACC for less than that amount they are effectively losing money over that 12 year time period.
 

Root4GT

Helluva Engineer
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2,963
With all the talk about TV money. Why are we not part of the conversation for the BIG (whatever)? No bigger TV hub in the south for college football than Atl. Seems to me that GT would be prime target for BIG to break SEC strangle hold on biggest TV market in south. UGA vs Miss St couldn’t bring in twice as many TV eyes as GT vs Penn St. On the same day. Am I wrong?
Just curious. Don't most cable subscribers that are college football fans in the Atlanta area already have the ESPN sports packet on their cable packet? The SEC is the driver on the Atlanta area. How would adding GT to the B1G increase the number of cable subscribers for ESPN in the Atlanta market. I read somewhere that ESPN makes the majority of its money via subscription charges to cable providers.

Is there a belief that many more people in the Atlanta area would sign up for the B1G channel? Seems implausible as the many B1G fans in the Atlanta market either already have the B1G channel or won't be moved by GT joining the B1G.

Curious as to others thoughts on how GT brings $$ to the B1G?
 

mts315

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
929
The way I see it if there are 8 teams that are willing/wanting to leave the ACC they need to convince the BIG and the SEC to take 4 each. The ACC teams can then go about breaking the GOR. Outside of that scenario the ACC schools are either staying in the ACC for the foreseeable future or bankrupting their Athletic Departments to go elsewhere.

I don't see a way that 8 ACC teams come together or the SEC or BIG giving them a lifeline. So, here we are and here we will stay.

The ACC should be putting the pressure on ND to become a full member or cutting them out of the equation all together. Who is ND going to play at this point? The SEC and the BIG are so large now that they don't have the need to schedule difficult out of conference games for strength of schedule and they certainly don't need the revenue from a game with ND.
 
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