Conference Realignment

[iceeater1969]

Short answer, YES.
As recently as a few weeks ago I thought the ACC deal was undervalued. Now I’m not so sure.
That said, I would fully expect us to be ahead of the PAC and B12 (for now). One thing that all of these discussions of markets and values and revenues and TV eyeballs has produced is an abundance of information that consistently shows the ACC as the #3 conference by about every measure.
Honestly, while everyone is knocking the PAC and pointing and laughing about the quality of teams, it’s biggest problem IMO is perception. They lost UCLA /USC, Colorado jumped to B12 for likely a short term gain and Wash and Oregon are actively marketing themselves to highest bidders. It’s almost impossible to assign a value to that as a media partner.
Back to caveat my first answer....The whining out of Tallahassee is getting louder and the perception of GOR is that no school should ever sign such a thing ever again. Absent the GOR, we look just like the PAC. We have some great universities with solid athletic programs in good tv markets but every single one of them is looking for the next opportunity to move on. Think about it... Clemson /FSU / UNC take the role of USC / UCLA. Louisville, the shortest tenured member and a bit of a geographical oddity goes all Colorado on us and jumps at the B12, then you have some combination of UVA, VT, Miami, GT, Pittand NCST holding out hope and ready to pounce at the first SEC / BIG opportunity. Hard to put together a marketing brochure on that!

Gt s best hope is to get picked in last round of the draft ignores the black swam event. Its entirly possible a school could BUY their way ahead of us.
Say U of H wants out of big 12 and into SEC. SEC likes area for recruiting and market. The owner of the Golden Nugget gave huge $ to UH and became the AD.

We need to move up to compete w UNC

 

[orientalnc]

From a friend who follows sports closer than almost all of us:

I can quickly understand why the Big-10 would be interested in Cal, Stanford and Washington. Those three schools are located in large TV markets and the big money in college football comes from TV revenues. “More money” is a powerful motivator. San Francisco is the 10th largest TV market in the US and Seattle is the 12th largest. However, the inclusion of Oregon on this list is interesting.

Over the past 10-15 years, Oregon has been a solid football program. Since the arrival of Chip Kelly in 2009, Oregon has been to the Rose Bowl 4 times and played in the National Championship Game in 2014. But Eugene Oregon is a flyspeck of a TV market; it ranks 119th in the US, one spot ahead of Macon, GA and six spots below Fargo, ND.

Meanwhile, there is a current PAC-12 team in a very large TV market not on this speculative list. That would be Arizona State sitting in the middle of the Phoenix, AZ TV market which is sandwiched right between San Francisco and Seattle. So, let me assume that the headline and report from yesterday is correct; what might that mean in terms of the thought processes ongoing in Big-10 HQs:

• The conference wants the better team/program (Oregon) because it feels it already has three large TV markets on the West Coast covered?
• The Big-10 knows or thinks that the Big-12 has the origins of a deal in place already with Arizona State and does not want to get into a bidding war?
• Arizona State does not want to go anywhere without Arizona and the Big-10 is not willing to take Arizona at the expense of Cal, Stanford and/or Washington?

Any or all those questions could be in play here; that would be grist for a discussion among people who cover college football closely – – not a faux debate among people who yell at one another on TV. But no matter the consensus that might arise regarding the behind-the-scenes machinations here, one thing is clear to me:

• The Pac-12 will cease to exist if Cal, Stanford, Washington and one other school go elsewhere.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

From a friend who follows sports closer than almost all of us:

I can quickly understand why the Big-10 would be interested in Cal, Stanford and Washington. Those three schools are located in large TV markets and the big money in college football comes from TV revenues. “More money” is a powerful motivator. San Francisco is the 10th largest TV market in the US and Seattle is the 12th largest. However, the inclusion of Oregon on this list is interesting.

Over the past 10-15 years, Oregon has been a solid football program. Since the arrival of Chip Kelly in 2009, Oregon has been to the Rose Bowl 4 times and played in the National Championship Game in 2014. But Eugene Oregon is a flyspeck of a TV market; it ranks 119th in the US, one spot ahead of Macon, GA and six spots below Fargo, ND.

Meanwhile, there is a current PAC-12 team in a very large TV market not on this speculative list. That would be Arizona State sitting in the middle of the Phoenix, AZ TV market which is sandwiched right between San Francisco and Seattle. So, let me assume that the headline and report from yesterday is correct; what might that mean in terms of the thought processes ongoing in Big-10 HQs:

• The conference wants the better team/program (Oregon) because it feels it already has three large TV markets on the West Coast covered?
• The Big-10 knows or thinks that the Big-12 has the origins of a deal in place already with Arizona State and does not want to get into a bidding war?
• Arizona State does not want to go anywhere without Arizona and the Big-10 is not willing to take Arizona at the expense of Cal, Stanford and/or Washington?

Any or all those questions could be in play here; that would be grist for a discussion among people who cover college football closely – – not a faux debate among people who yell at one another on TV. But no matter the consensus that might arise regarding the behind-the-scenes machinations here, one thing is clear to me:

• The Pac-12 will cease to exist if Cal, Stanford, Washington and one other school go elsewhere.

Oregon, as the flagship school of the state, also brings the Portland TV market into play, which is the 25th largest in the US.

 

[travgt01]

Oregon, as the flagship school of the state, also brings the Portland TV market into play, which is the 25th largest in the US.

And it brings in the Nike relationship. Dunno how much that translates to monetarily, but it's something. Your friend follows sports but he don't seem to know much about Oregon, who has been one of the rising "new bloods" since the 90s that's had heavy influence in both offensive style of football and football fashion, two things that are kinda important to impressionable 18 year olds. Oregon is very very popular with recruits from all over the country.

 

[CEB]

Gt s best hope is to get picked in last round of the draft ignores the black swam event. Its entirly possible a school could BUY their way ahead of us.
Say U of H wants out of big 12 and into SEC. SEC likes area for recruiting and market. The owner of the Golden Nugget gave huge $ to UH and became the AD.

We need to move up to compete w UNC

I agree that some schools will try to throw money at the issue. I suspect FSU is at that point (but they have to throw money at the ACC first). Most likely that comes in acceptance of a reduced payout. BIG at one point spoke out against that. I think I recall them saying years ago that they weren’t interested in unequal revenue and even if a team came in with a partial share, it was important to get them on equal footing.
I also hope we sneak in with the other ACC additions once the GOR can be worked out (or feasibly bought out)

 

[UgaBlows]

Oregon, as the flagship school of the state, also brings the Portland TV market into play, which is the 25th largest in the US.

Whats the mileage/range on the rate increase for BIG network, anyone actually know?

 

[57jacket]

The main fundemental problem with the ACC is having four schools from the same state. It severely limits the total fan base. Nothing to be done. Just saying...

 

[RamblinRed]

I think this is all relatively simple to understand.

B1G wasn't really looking to expand any more, but the Colorado move has sort of shook things up.
They aren't looking at the AZ schools because either the AZ schools are going to go to the B12 - effectively killing the PAC or they will stay with the PAC, keeping it alive. They don't being enough to garner a full B1G share, so they are not going to go after them, but if they decide to jump to the B12 along with the other 4 corner schools then B1G will pick over the pieces of the PAC once it is effectively dead and take a few of the best pieces they have left at a discount.

FWIW, from one article I read USC is strongly against any more PAC schools joining the B10, while UCLA is indifferent.

Everything comes down to a decision by the AZ schools. Do they stay or do they jump. If they stay then B1G does not offer WA and OR. What would be interesting is what happens if the AZ schools split in their decisions. Article I read said Az St was prepared to remain with the PAC. What if AZ jumped, but AZ St did not. (and assume Utah also stays at that point as B12 would be at 14 teams). If only 1 of the schools jumps, would that leave enough that the B1G would pass on WA and OR again as the PAC would have 8 teams and could pretty easily add a couple more if they wanted to.

 

[RamblinRed]

The main fundemental problem with the ACC is having four schools from the same state. It severely limits the total fan base. Nothing to be done. Just saying...

The fundamental issue with the ACC is that it is made up of mostly smaller P5 schools and also has the most private schools of any of the conferences (there is a correlation there). There are 12 P5 schools that are private (including Notre Dame as P5), 5 are in the ACC and ND is a 6th.

ACC only has 2 'state of' schools - UNC and UVA. The largest schools in the ACC would barely register as more than Avg size schools in the SEC (and especially the B1G).

5 of the 10 smallest P5 schools based on undergraduate enrollment are in the ACC. 10 of the 21 smallest. Only 3 of the 35 largest are in the ACC, with FSU being the highest at #17.

 

[stinger 1957]

From a friend who follows sports closer than almost all of us:

I can quickly understand why the Big-10 would be interested in Cal, Stanford and Washington. Those three schools are located in large TV markets and the big money in college football comes from TV revenues. “More money” is a powerful motivator. San Francisco is the 10th largest TV market in the US and Seattle is the 12th largest. However, the inclusion of Oregon on this list is interesting.

Over the past 10-15 years, Oregon has been a solid football program. Since the arrival of Chip Kelly in 2009, Oregon has been to the Rose Bowl 4 times and played in the National Championship Game in 2014. But Eugene Oregon is a flyspeck of a TV market; it ranks 119th in the US, one spot ahead of Macon, GA and six spots below Fargo, ND.

Meanwhile, there is a current PAC-12 team in a very large TV market not on this speculative list. That would be Arizona State sitting in the middle of the Phoenix, AZ TV market which is sandwiched right between San Francisco and Seattle. So, let me assume that the headline and report from yesterday is correct; what might that mean in terms of the thought processes ongoing in Big-10 HQs:

• The conference wants the better team/program (Oregon) because it feels it already has three large TV markets on the West Coast covered?
• The Big-10 knows or thinks that the Big-12 has the origins of a deal in place already with Arizona State and does not want to get into a bidding war?
• Arizona State does not want to go anywhere without Arizona and the Big-10 is not willing to take Arizona at the expense of Cal, Stanford and/or Washington?

Any or all those questions could be in play here; that would be grist for a discussion among people who cover college football closely – – not a faux debate among people who yell at one another on TV. But no matter the consensus that might arise regarding the behind-the-scenes machinations here, one thing is clear to me:

• The Pac-12 will cease to exist if Cal, Stanford, Washington and one other school go elsewhere.

I have always thought that Oregon did not fit what the BIG was looking for and ASU did fit because it's Phoenix. Always thought Seattle/ Tacoma fit just for what you say, the size of the TV mkts. Will be interesting to see How it all plays out.
Also wonder if the BIG keeps Nebraska since they lost their AAU designation, supposedly the Nebraska fan base would rather be in the Big 12.

 

[BilldGopher]

More grist for the mill...

Hickey: The B1G is right to play Pac-12 vulture rather than raptor

Ballooning the B1G to 20 teams creates more headaches than solutions. The unlikely survival of the Pac-12 would best serve all parties.

saturdaytradition.com

 

[tomknight]

I pretty much hate pro football. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.

As CFB moves that way, I will have to spend less time planning Saturdays around events. Once it goes pro, I'm out.

 

[LT 1967]

BIG1 Presidents have approved their commissioner to explore adding Washington and Oregon per Pete Thamel.

 

[Kmag]

I think it’s interesting that instead of the ACC making moves to add the PAC teams. It’s the BIG 12 and B1G are having conversations. While ACC is sitting on their hands not being proactive. We are going to get left behind, and it feels like we are okay with it. Someone needs to step up and be innovative. It’s beyond frustrating!!!

 

[stech81]

The main fundemental problem with the ACC is having four schools from the same state. It severely limits the total fan base. Nothing to be done. Just saying...

Especially when they were 4 of the original members.

 

[RonJohn]

I think it’s interesting that instead of the ACC making moves to add the PAC teams. It’s the BIG 12 and B1G are having conversations. While ACC is sitting on their hands not being proactive. We are going to get left behind, and it feels like we are okay with it. Someone needs to step up and be innovative. It’s beyond frustrating!!!

There have been reports in the past several years that the ACC has had discussions with networks, and some Pac12 schools but the additional money for adding the schools did not increase the per school payout. None of that is actual public information, but reports from people who have had decent contacts.

The current information that is getting you frustrated is from bloggers and Twitter. It is not from reputable sources. Especially one guy on Twitter last week was saying that Tuesday was the day the FSU and Clemson were going to make the announcement of a move to the Big10. I think this is past Tuesday, and that didn't happen. In fact, the FSU BOT had a meeting yesterday, and even though they trash talked a lot they didn't even have a proposal to vote on for moving to any conference. If you pay attention to, and believe all of the "breaking news" on Twitter, you will feel very frustrated.

In the end, I am certain that the ACC is in discussions about a lot of things. They aren't going to publicly say who they are talking to or what they are talking about. The Big10, Big12, nor SEC is going to publicly say who they are talking to or what they are talking about. You are not hearing actual information in the reports that are being flung around. You are just hearing a bunch of people who are trying to get attention spew a bunch of hogwash. There is even one Twitter poster that is using forum posts from random forum posters as his source of information.

In the end, no matter what happens none of us will know what discussions actually took place. If Oregon and Washington join the ACC, we won't know what their other opportunities were. If they join the Big10, we won't know what level of discussions they had with the ACC, nor if there was enough money available from TV packages to make such a deal profitable for anyone. I am not saying that the leadership of the ACC is rock solid. However, there is a media perception that the leadership is inept. All of the reporting is going to mirror that perception, especially at this point because nobody actually has any real information to report.

 

[stech81]

I think this is all relatively simple to understand.

B1G wasn't really looking to expand any more, but the Colorado move has sort of shook things up.

If I was putting blame on someone it would be the commissioner of the PAC 12 (or whatever the call it now). As for Colorado they should have stayed in the Big 12 from the start.

 

[EddieK]

 

[Randy Carson]

And it brings in the Nike relationship.

So, Nike and Under Armor in the same conference?

Now, there's an interesting match-up.

 

[Lil G]

I pretty much hate pro football. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.

As CFB moves that way, I will have to spend less time planning Saturdays around events. Once it goes pro, I'm out.

I’m worried we’re pretty much already there in some ways . However, I think the coaching personalities, their motives (Brent being a huge tech guy, Hugh freeze converting kids to Christianity, Kirby smart keeping kids out of jail), and overall nostalgia aspect for fans that attended the colleges will keep it fun and ultimately different.

I do my best to understand people’s loyalties to pro sports teams. I think braves games are a fantastic way to spend a night with friends. Sports as a job overall intrigues me. But the level of hoopla achieved in a drunk student section, after a school you work hard to be part of, can’t be replicated imo. Compile generations of this, and you get a stadium of people losing their minds over a simple 3rd down stop, 1st quarter, against Virginia (both teams are 2-5 or something miserable). The miracle plays in cfb happen more often due to amateur mistakes and with seemingly more magic. The players are usually going more crazy on the sidelines. You’re constantly reminded of the fact that they’re just a bunch of kids (besides Stetson Bennett) putting the weight of the world on their shoulders. Serious emotions one can attempt to empathize with.

I want the falcons to win just like all the other atlantains, but I would tattoo a yellow jacket on my chest if it just meant beating the filthy dogs this year.