Conference Realignment

forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

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g0lftime said:
Forget travel to away games except maybe well heeled family members. How many fans will attend games in California. Maybe one time but not every other year. The budgets for these conferences will be enormous. MBB, WBB, Baseball, tennis, swimming, lacrosse, field hockey, gymnastics, soccer, in addition to FB will require lots of travel and travel to the west coast takes time away from school. Maybe the model morphs into the ND model with FB only conferences and other sports play in secondary arrangements that don't require as much travel.
The travel in the ACC is bad enough as it is with ND Syracuse Boston. Imagine throwing in the west coast. A few schools may have some alums in those places but how many will care to attend games. It's becoming a made for TV model and to heck with the fans. It's all about the TV contracts.
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Travel from ATL to the West Coast isn't much different (cost-wise) than travel to Boston or Pittsburgh or Miami. It's the time change and what the extra time on the airplane does to the student-athlete that would be different.
 
GTrob21

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Take this for what it is worth, but I was talking with a friend of mine who is a very old, very big Penn State donor. We have talked for years about how the ACC missed the boat and should have gone after Penn State when FSU was on the table. They should have created an ACC north, anchored with Penn State, old Big East teams, which are now in the ACC anyway, and then an ACC south, with FSU, GaTech etc. Regional rivals, great institutions, great basketball, and football.

But of course, it never happened. When this news broke about USC and UCLA we connected again, and I wanted to get his opinion. He laughed and said it was a counter move to the SEC, and yes, like everybody else, he sees this going to two major conferences and then several conferences that are good but don't have the relevance like these major 2.

Just like we have today, in the P5, except it will be the P2.

For what it is worth, he feels the ACC will be the best out of the rest, but yes, he feels the demise of the ACC is inevitable.

This is where the conversation got interesting. I asked him what he is hearing about the end of all of this, and he really said that one topic of conversation that comes up all the time in the Penn State circles is the lack of drivable regional rivalries. He said that the opinion of the people he talks with, and they are connected to at least Penn State, is that the B1G is going to target AAU institutions and create 3 conferences that are regional in focus, but national in media rights. A B1G west, A B1G central, and a B1G east. Whether those regional conferences under the B1G are 8, 9, or 10 schools in nature doesn't really matter. So the B1G would land somewhere between 24-30 schools. Three regional conferences are all anchored with big land grant schools, that have big regional followings. The B1G are national in presence and regional in rivalries.

So a B1G west, with USC, UCLA,
B1G central with OSU, Mich, Mich State
B1G East with Penn State

And then the SEC was going to be the counter conference to all of this. He said he felt like Miami, Clemson, FSU, Va Tech were going to pulled into the SEC.

He looked at me and said, Look at the AAU schools in the ACC, and some combination of that with Penn State, Rutgers, and Maryland is going to end up being the B1G East.
 
bobongo

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I know I've said this before, but it might be of paramount importance that Tech turns things around before the big shakeout happens. It's already started, but there's still time. We badly need at least a break-even season this year and a bowl game. I don't know that it will make a difference, but it may. We need to put ourselves in as good a position possible ASAP.
 
GoldZ

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Not an end all solution, but a significant stop gap would be: GT to merge with Georgia State, and add ND and UCF or Houston to the ACC. Plenty of advantages to both moves.
 
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bigrabbit

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Some are suggesting some kind of acc/pac12(10) merger. How does conference size factor into current economics? Is there magic in having 20+ teams? Does $$$ improve?

BiCoastal Conference, BCC with east and west divisions.
 

MWBATL

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bigrabbit said:
Some are suggesting some kind of acc/pac12(10) merger. How does conference size factor into current economics? Is there magic in having 20+ teams? Does $$$ improve?

BiCoastal Conference, BCC with east and west divisions.
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Money is now totally driven by TV dollars and TV markets. Not sure an ACC/Pac 12-2 merger would do much in that regard.
 

MWBATL

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GoldZ said:
Not an end all solution, but a significant stop gap would be: GT to merge with Georgia State, and add ND and UCF or Houston to the ACC. Plenty of advantages to both moves.
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Not at all realistic on any level. Ga State combining with GT is controlled by politicians, not GT or Ga St. And Notre Dame will go where the money is when they finally give up their independence, and that's the Big Ten.
 
GTBandit22

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So reading more about the GOR, it isn’t clear whether it is 7 teams or unanimous vote that can get rid of it. If the former, all it takes is for the two to get 7 in total to delete it then the ACC is defunct.
If the latter, the ACC will probably be okay, as the sec and B1G move west to try and solidify their numbers.
 

stinger 1957

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
You are correct in all those. The unknown is if the BIG wants a physical presence in Atlanta? In reality with TV and/or streaming anyone can watch any game anywhere these days so a physical presence is not nearly as important as it use to be. I’m sure every BIG fan in or near the 404 has the ability to watch their team every Saturday. I’m down in the most rural area of this state and I watch any team from GT to Penn State to USC every weekend. I just don’t think the powers at GT are up to selling themselves to the BIG. I hope I’m wrong. I think those that run GT are fine with us being relegated with the Wakes and Vandys to a league with real student athletes.
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It's all about eyes for the money, what I see with the "BIG" taking both USC and UCLA is they are going to dominate the big population mkts, they were not originally indicating taking UCLA and then did, they did not want SEC coming into the 18 million population greater LA market IMO. They're going to take Washington sometime I feel sure and I believe they want ATL and maybe S. FL. We need to agree to disagree on TV not dictating their decisions and them understanding that the big TV money comes through the Metro areas, they have the experience and data I'm sure. IMO the "BIG" is getting ready to eat the SEC's lunch when it comes to $. You better believe the rest of the PAC 12 would rather be in the BIG than SEC, but it's appearing most will never have the chance. I've asked the question several times to ACC alums, had you rather your school be in the SEC or BIG and it was 100% BIG. I'm sure there are some that would say SEC, just happened in my very small survey.
I can see where the BIG ends up televising all their televised sports through their own TV networks somewhere in the future, streaming allows that to happen and BIG will have all those big metro areas to pull and sell advertising from, they're going to have to have a full blown operating business model to do this, therefore lots of coverage across America with participating schools pulling from big metro areas to sell ads etc.
Just some of my thoughts and certainly I've been wrong before, so it will be fun to see how it all plays out going forward.
If GT ends up in the BIG IMO not only does that enormously add to our revenue with a very large increase in revenue from TV but also an increase in attendance and higher ticket prices and probably more games being played in MBS, may be the reason we're showing BIG we can play at MBS. GT becomes very relevant again both in the south and nationally if we are in the "BIG", probably a good marriage for both us and the "BIG" and their plan to dominate IMO. The "BIG" becomes the premier nationwide athletic conference is what I can see as possible.
 
GoldZ

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MWBATL said:
Not at all realistic on any level. Ga State combining with GT is controlled by politicians, not GT or Ga St. And Notre Dame will go where the money is when they finally give up their independence, and that's the Big Ten.
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True enough on both fronts. Now, how realistic is being a member of an expanded BIG or sec?
 
GoldZ

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bigrabbit said:
I cannot imagine GT merging with GSU any more than I could imagine Cal Berkeley merging with Cal State East Bay.
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Can you imagine wrecking balls on HBDS? Or, Georgia Military College being a feeder program to UGA, or Coastal Community College of Mississippi being a feeder school to Ole Miss, or UGA having a Engineering Program? Oh wait. Or, not that long ago cFB having free agency and highest bidder mania for players (not to be confused with students). It's gonna be interesting how Stanford ends up in this crap.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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stinger 1957 said:
It's all about eyes for the money, what I see with the "BIG" taking both USC and UCLA is they are going to dominate the big population mkts, they were not originally indicating taking UCLA and then did, they did not want SEC coming into the 18 million population greater LA market IMO. They're going to take Washington sometime I feel sure and I believe they want ATL and maybe S. FL. We need to agree to disagree on TV not dictating their decisions and them understanding that the big TV money comes through the Metro areas, they have the experience and data I'm sure. IMO the "BIG" is getting ready to eat the SEC's lunch when it comes to $. You better believe the rest of the PAC 12 would rather be in the BIG than SEC, but it's appearing most will never have the chance. I've asked the question several times to ACC alums, had you rather your school be in the SEC or BIG and it was 100% BIG. I'm sure there are some that would say SEC, just happened in my very small survey.
I can see where the BIG ends up televising all their televised sports through their own TV networks somewhere in the future, streaming allows that to happen and BIG will have all those big metro areas to pull and sell advertising from, they're going to have to have a full blown operating business model to do this, therefore lots of coverage across America with participating schools pulling from big metro areas to sell ads etc.
Just some of my thoughts and certainly I've been wrong before, so it will be fun to see how it all plays out going forward.
If GT ends up in the BIG IMO not only does that enormously add to our revenue with a very large increase in revenue from TV but also an increase in attendance and higher ticket prices and probably more games being played in MBS, may be the reason we're showing BIG we can play at MBS. GT becomes very relevant again both in the south and nationally if we are in the "BIG", probably a good marriage for both us and the "BIG" and their plan to dominate IMO. The "BIG" becomes the premier nationwide athletic conference is what I can see as possible.
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I agree. I just don’t know if our Admin is up to the task. And we know the BOR controlled by UGA will throw up every obstacle they can to keep us irrelevant.
 

stinger 1957

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
I agree. I just don’t know if our Admin is up to the task. And we know the BOR controlled by UGA will throw up every obstacle they can to keep us irrelevant.
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May be, but something tells me that will not be a problem, first need to see if I'm right and "BIG" wants ATL mkt. So we're right back to square one. Most of these type dealings go on for a while very quietly, I'm guessing the "BIG" has already had some sort of contact with those they see as possibilities. I like our position, we've raised 176 mil, our facilities in really good shape and will be improving, in the ATL, AAU school for 12 years, great academic school as "BIG" looks for that, MBS access a part of what we offer which allows for really big attendance where needed.
BIG has already tried the rural school and found out what they needed to know when they took on Nebraska, they have to have found out what brings the most advertising money etc.
We have the two elephants in the room now going after each other and each trying to be the granddaddy of them all, the UCLA and USC move was gigantic IMO, now BIG has the upper hand I'm guessing. I'm seeing that their next TV contract estimated to be between 1 and 1.5 billion annually. I mention this because it indicates that BIG may not be done bringing schools in and more will be coming sooner rather than later. Is GT one of them, I have no idea, could be SEC goes after say Clemson and FSU at same time BIG goes after UNC, GT, Miami, maybe UVA and they may just do the west coast for now. It appears the time to do this is when you are close to doing a new TV contract. You can't bring schools in during the middle of a contract and end up cutting your present members $, that ain't gonna work. I'm guessing the $ in the contract determined in part with which and where located each school happens to be.
 
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GoJacketsInRaleigh

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The big ten would likely take us for the Atlanta market and also to help them recruit the south. Hopefully GT, Virginia, UNC and I guess Duke are already talking to them and let Clemson, FSU, Miami and NCSU or VT go to the SEC. And the GOR are then dead
 
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