Collins - Expectations and time to get things right?

[RickStromFan]

We were arguably 3 special team plays away from winning 9 games this year.

That's a massive stretch of reality. The only thing the KO Return TDs did was score quickly. I saw nothing on that game that indicates our D would've prevented any points from being scored had we tackled the KO return man. Not sure what the 3rd ST play is you're referring to.

We blew 4 or 5 double digit second half leads in 2017. We could easily have 9 to 10 wins three years in a row. Insane is definitely a stretch.

Blowing that many leads is itself an indication that things weren't working. At some point, it stops being a fluke and starts being a trend.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

We lost to 4 teams that lost 5 or more games by an average of almost 2 TDs. The record of the 6 non FCS teams we beat was 27-36. We didn't beat a team that had fewer than 5 total losses. In fact we only played 2 teams with fewer than 5 losses and managed to not look like an FBS team against either of them. We weren't as bad as the Minn game portrayed all year but we were in no way poised to win 9 next year.

I don't know what your point about '14 and '09 is. Could we win 10 games next year? Sure. Probably. Is there any rational reason to think that we were going to even without a coaching staff change? No. In 09 we were coming off a 9 win season and going into year 2 of a new offense. There was an rational reason to expect the next year to make improvements because it was going with increased experience in the system in year 2 vs year 1. That is the opposite of what we have now going into year 1 of a new system vs year 11 of the old one. 14 was a fluke and there was no reason to expect it based on what we had the previous year. It was a year where the best case scenario happened, or just about, but you shouldn't set your expectations by the best case scenario.



LMAO there is no basis for the claim that we would have probably won a game we lost by 24 points if Johnson didn't decide to retire.

Bruh, all those bad teams we play, we play next year, too. We easily could have and still could win 9 or 10 games because the coastal is a big nothing burger. That’s my point. We’ve been a few plays away from having 9/10 wins the last few years and there’s nothing to indicate next year would be any different. You’re the one making strong statements like it’s INSANE to think such things when, looking on paper, there are 10 very winnable games on our schedule. You act like we have won 3 games in the last 3 years and we play Clemson every week.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

That's a massive stretch of reality. The only thing the KO Return TDs did was score quickly. I saw nothing on that game that indicates our D would've prevented any points from being scored had we tackled the KO return man. Not sure what the 3rd ST play is you're referring to.



Blowing that many leads is itself an indication that things weren't working. At some point, it stops being a fluke and starts being a trend.

Fake punt against Pitt, and I don’t disagree that there weren’t issues. Saying it’s INSANE to think we could win 9 or 10 games is in itself insane, because it implies we are getting blown out, which is not the case. That’s the point.

 

[eetech]

You are talking them down when you say the cupboard is bare. Parker Braun is a certain draft pick barring injury next year. Other guys have the ability to play themselves into draft picks. Disagree? If not the cupboard isn’t bare.

You must be confusing me with someone else. I never said the cupboard was bare. All I said was objectively there is good reason to believe that Gailey had much better recruiting before CPJ replaced him, than the recruiting CPJ has had over the past few years.

We have excellent players on our team now, who had a pretty decent season after a bad start (which could honestly have been much better if not for some poor coaching decisions). However, most metrics showed that the players CPJ had in 2008 was likely one of the best group of players that Tech has had in the past 15 years.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

because we clearly weren't already there.

Every year, it was "If this one had gone that way and if that had gone this way, blahblahblah". Every single team deals with that kind of stuff. Fact is, we weren't "a few plays away" in every single loss this year. Fact is, we didn't make key plays repeatedly in 2017. Fact is, we were just as close to a 5-win team as an 8-win one and nowhere near a 10-win team.

It's time to stop making excuses. It's time to move past the CPJ Era.

We were just as close to a 5 win team as a 10 win team. That’s true, but the way some of you guys talk, you guys seem to think we’re boys amongst men.

 

[Vespidae]

I agree with that, but my original point was that if the payoff is 8-10 wins, why would we agree to endure a tear down when we’re already there?

CPJ’s winning percentage is 0.573 which equates to less than 7 wins a year. It’s even less if you remove the Alcorn States.

In other words, we are not there.

 

[ncjacket79]

9-10 wins would not have been unrealistic.......lass to Clemp and Ga, and Clemp again in the ACCCG....bowl game win, one (or two) ugly loss during the season which seemed to be the norm.

I said to EXPECT 9-10 wins was crazy, not that it’s impossible.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

We weren’t very good last year. You are what your record is. That doesn’t mean we have no talent. It means we didn’t play very good football overall. The breaks break both ways for every team. We got blown away by 3 teams and didn’t beat any very good to great teams.

Not a dumpster fire but not good to very good either. 9-10 wins would be good to very good and we didn’t sniff that territory in 2018 imo. Could we have next year without the staff changes? Maybe...but would depend on a lot of variables. QB play the biggest one.

 

[iopjacket]

GT > 'Bama > UGA

Anything else is a failure.

I want some of what you are drinking, smoking, or God knows what else. Preach on brother.

 

[ncjacket79]

We were arguably 3 special team plays away from winning 9 games this year. We blew 4 or 5 double digit second half leads in 2017. We could easily have 9 to 10 wins three years in a row. Insane is definitely a stretch.

Again I said that EXPECTING 9-10 wins was borderline insane not that we couldn’t have done it. But that would assume a QB who had real mastery of the offense including the ability to hit at least 50% of his passes and getting the breaks at right times. Not impossible but certainly not a given.

 

[Boaty1]

How much of a fall off did CPJ have when he came to Tech?

How much of a falloff did he have once he lost Gailey’s players. Not many are claiming Johnson couldn’t coach. The claim is he couldn’t recruit.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Collins will win at least 7 games next year. You guys are underestimating this team.

Again I said that EXPECTING 9-10 wins was borderline insane not that we couldn’t have done it. But that would assume a QB who had real mastery of the offense including the ability to hit at least 50% of his passes and getting the breaks at right times. Not impossible but certainly not a given.

I never said I was expecting it. I said it was very doable. Looking at how bad the coastal is and how many close games we’ve played in the last few years, I don’t see how that isn’t doable, which is why I said I expect Collins to win around 7/8 games. Again, The first and last games are the only games we have little chance in. The 10 games in the middle are all winnable.

 

[lv20gt]

Wow. You don't think coaches being distracted and a team experiencing disruption can get blown out? Not my experience in watching the college game.

I think it is absurd to suggest that we probably would have won a game we lost by 24 points if the coach who was still coaching that game hadn't decided to retire. We didn't lose a QB. We had the same playcallers and the same game prep as we had all year. Sorry, but that might justify a 4 point loss being a probable win otherwise. It doesn't justify the

Bruh, all those bad teams we play, we play next year, too. We easily could have and still could win 9 or 10 games because the coastal is a big nothing burger. That’s my point. We’ve been a few plays away from having 9/10 wins the last few years and there’s nothing to indicate next year would be any different. You’re the one making strong statements like it’s INSANE to think such things when, looking on paper, there are 10 very winnable games on our schedule. You act like we have won 3 games in the last 3 years and we play Clemson every week.

We were closer to 5-7 than 9-3 this year. We only lost one game by a score and that one was only that close because of a tacked on TD with less than a minute left. We were closer to losing UVA and Miami than to winning any of the games we lost. Last year we weren't anywhere near 9 wins. You're acting like Johnson actually won 10 games this year and so 8 wins would be a drop off. Saying that 10 wins was doable next year so expecting 8 wins is a drop off, from the 7 wins the previous year, is utter ridiculous. Yes we had 10 winnable games. And of those 10 games what, 9 are losable. So how about this. since 9 losses was doable next year under the previous coach, I guess that makes 5 wins a step up right?

 

[Animal02]

You must be confusing me with someone else. I never said the cupboard was bare. All I said was objectively there is good reason to believe that Gailey had much better recruiting before CPJ replaced him, than the recruiting CPJ has had over the past few years.

We have excellent players on our team now, who had a pretty decent season after a bad start (which could honestly have been much better if not for some poor coaching decisions). However, most metrics showed that the players CPJ had in 2008 was likely one of the best group of players that Tech has had in the past 15 years.

And it would be expected that Gailey had more/better....at that time Tech was slightly above middle for spending in Football. By the end of CPJ's tenure, we were 2nd to last.

 

[COJacket]

I don't think the cupboard was bare at all for CPJ, as a matter of fact that might have been one of his best rosters the year he took over.
The other knock on Gailey was he couldn't coach-up our QB play ...

I agree that CPJ had talent to work with because of the one real good recruiting year CCG had. And Gailey inherited a very good talent from O’Leary and did nothing with it. CCG had some mediocre recruiting years leading up to his jackpot year so the depth was not great for CPJ. But at least CPJ did more with that talent than CCG ever showed he could do w talent. I think there is more talent here than people are giving credit to except for a few positions. Time will tell

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

I think it is absurd to suggest that we probably would have won a game we lost by 24 points if the coach who was still coaching that game hadn't decided to retire. We didn't lose a QB. We had the same playcallers and the same game prep as we had all year. Sorry, but that might justify a 4 point loss being a probable win otherwise. It doesn't justify the



We were closer to 5-7 than 9-3 this year. We only lost one game by a score and that one was only that close because of a tacked on TD with less than a minute left. We were closer to losing UVA and Miami than to winning any of the games we lost. Last year we weren't anywhere near 9 wins. You're acting like Johnson actually won 10 games this year and so 8 wins would be a drop off. Saying that 10 wins was doable next year so expecting 8 wins is a drop off, from the 7 wins the previous year, is utter ridiculous. Yes we had 10 winnable games. And of those 10 games what, 9 are losable. So how about this. since 9 losses was doable next year under the previous coach, I guess that makes 5 wins a step up right?

Nope. We won 7 this year. 5 is less than 7.

 

[lv20gt]

Nope. We won 7 this year. 5 is less than 7.

And 8 is more.

 

[heyhellowhatsup]

CPJ’s winning percentage is 0.573 which equates to less than 7 wins a year. It’s even less if you remove the Alcorn States.

In other words, we are not there.

I don't understand this argument about CPJ's winning %. EVERY team (with the exception of ND and Texas) plays FCS schools... So it's stupid to asterisk his winning % with that.

And guys like Alexander and Heisman played schools that are now D3.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

And 8 is more.

We should win 7 or 8 this year. No excuses.

 

[iceeater1969]

Whiskey, thanks for listing the draft picks by year.
The first 3 we had 11 and that's what we had in last 8. So basically freshman year 3.6 pro draft /year ( 11/3) Next 3 soph, jr , senior 1.5 pro draft / year( 11/8).

I think a good portion of the drop off was due to the systems we used on offense and defense that were hard for guys to standout. . The offensive scheme puts up crazy run numbers but our backs don't get credit. Even coach said the bb position was given (+st and 2nd string) well over 1000. The non gap bend but don't break defense that didnt high lite at the guys athletic ability. Throw in the 2 games each year that coach won by his play calling and the players got a reputation of beings system players . I think the general thought of us being system eventually was a selffulling situation.

Yea if they were good the NFL would find them, But getting higher acc honors would have maybe moved a marginal NFL player into a very late round pic.
As i hear cgc talking about having players get to NFL, I think he is saying he is going to work to get good players into a late rounds.


Imo, the present young defensive players and our new qb s will do well.

Another fact - the remaining NFL playoff games 4 are pocket passers (Brady, Rivers...) and 6 (?) are pass first run some QB s .

The future is to the QBs like the Texas Tech 6-3 230 # qb playing for KC.