College Football Season Picks

[slugboy]

Thanks for sharing these. It’s interesting. I agree others have an easier schedule, and I’m probably overreacting since we did win our most difficult ACC game already (by most difficult, I mean the preseason odds).

I find interesting some ACC teams such as SMU and Miami start with four OOC and then end with eight straight conference games. I can’t imagine that’s a good thing.

Miami has this

I wish they had Louisville, FSU, then us. They have a breather with Duke right before us. But maybe Manny will be ready for them.

 

[AUFC]

Thought that Castellanos 50 yard wheel route out of the back field cooked these unders early in the 2nd but FanDuel has him at 136.5 in live odds and Lewis Bond at 12.5. Still alive but I think BC is gonna start letting him chuck a bit now that State has made it a one score game.

 

[AUFC]

I got absolutely roasted in CFB this week - 0-6 (these are all +900 plays though). NFL has been going much better today though - already have hit 1 +900 after the 1pm games. 1 is in extremely good shape and 1 is gonna be a sweat.

 

[Thwg777]

I got absolutely roasted in CFB this week - 0-6 (these are all +900 plays though). NFL has been going much better today though - already have hit 1 +900 after the 1pm games. 1 is in extremely good shape and 1 is gonna be a sweat.

Good luck!

It’s been a strange couple of weeks. I hit a decent play with Nebraska -6. I took it on an early (pre-week 1 line) so it was gambling within gambling… Gambling I’d get value from the early line over the actual line (check) and then obviously gambling that it actually covers (check).

I have not done an analysis to back up what I’m about state. But it seems like parity is up. Games seem to be ending up further from spreads. This makes spread parlays even tougher and ML underdogs straight up a more worthwhile longshot IMO.

Colorado St over Colorado this week is on my radar. A trend is your friend and right now kicking Colorado when they’re down might be a good play.

 

[AUFC]

Good luck!

It’s been a strange couple of weeks. I hit a decent play with Nebraska -6. I took it on an early (pre-week 1 line) so it was gambling within gambling… Gambling I’d get value from the early line over the actual line (check) and then obviously gambling that it actually covers (check).

I have not done an analysis to back up what I’m about state. But it seems like parity is up. Games seem to be ending up further from spreads. This makes spread parlays even tougher and ML underdogs straight up a more worthwhile longshot IMO.

Colorado St over Colorado this week is on my radar. A trend is your friend and right now kicking Colorado when they’re down might be a good play.

Thanks! Both those slips hit! But one of them (the "extremely good shape one") only cashed because David Njoku got knocked out of the game on his 29 yard reception at the start of the 3rd that took him to 44 yards (O/U was 45). The sweat line, Minshew/Jakobi Meyers over had a huge reception early in the 4th that pretty much salted it away. I have a couple more slips for the remaining games - 2 have Lions unders which are looking good at halftime. One of those is paired with Rams overs - Stafford is looking okay but he isn't throwing the ball to Demarcus Robinson so I suspect that one doesn't hit tonight.

No math behind this, but I'd watch out on that CSU play because they had the Buffs on the ropes last year I remember and blew a high percentage chance of winning. I'd just guess Colorado takes them pretty seriously.

 

[Thwg777]

Thanks! Both those slips hit! But one of them (the "extremely good shape one") only cashed because David Njoku got knocked out of the game on his 29 yard reception at the start of the 3rd that took him to 44 yards (O/U was 45). The sweat line, Minshew/Jakobi Meyers over had a huge reception early in the 4th that pretty much salted it away. I have a couple more slips for the remaining games - 2 have Lions unders which are looking good at halftime. One of those is paired with Rams overs - Stafford is looking okay but he isn't throwing the ball to Demarcus Robinson so I suspect that one doesn't hit tonight.

No math behind this, but I'd watch out on that CSU play because they had the Buffs on the ropes last year I remember and blew a high percentage chance of winning. I'd just guess Colorado takes them pretty seriously.

It’s a huge rivalry - Colorado / Colorado St. But to your point about treading lightly, this is the first season in a while, I don’t have much confidence on many picks. The transfer portal makes it really difficult since it’s hard to judge the intangibles of how teams are gelling. Especially this early in the season.

Late in the season, I’m looking for opportunities to fade playoff-bound teams when they’re big favorites since I’m expecting a lot of roster management, similar to weeks 17/18 in the NFL.

 

[AUFC]

Not so much a sports betting post but does anyone find the FanDuel purchase of Bally Sports crazy? I've never really known a world where ESPN isn't king but it'll be interesting to see if FanDuel can claim sports media hegemony over the next decade. I purchased NBA League Pass today and am a little annoyed I can't watch Hawks games which are now in the purview of FanDuel Sports Network. Anecdotally, my ATLUTD interest started tailing off when it became challenging to watch their games due to Bally. MLS eventually sold the entire league's TV rights to Apple TV but it was too late for me at that point. Anyway, again, just spitballing here but interesting times in sports media.

 

[Thwg777]

Late in the season, I’m looking for opportunities to fade playoff-bound teams when they’re big favorites since I’m expecting a lot of roster management, similar to weeks 17/18 in the NFL.

UVA v ND is on my radar. ND is playoff bound if they keep winning and has undefeated Army on deck.

UVA is playing respectable football, coming off a win at Pitt and has five wins.

UVA plus 22.5 points looks like the right side. It could be a straight up close game, and if I’m wrong, UVA could potentially cover if ND subs in backups late game.

 

[4shotB]

UVA v ND is on my radar. ND is playoff bound if they keep winning and has undefeated Army on deck.

UVA is playing respectable football, coming off a win at Pitt and has five wins.

UVA plus 22.5 points looks like the right side. It could be a straight up close game, and if I’m wrong, UVA could potentially cover if ND subs in backups late game.

You should get @ilovetheoption to provide some insight here. Iirc, Uva is his second favorite team and he follows them closer than anyone else here. If he chimes in, would love to get his take on the staus of that program. Feels weird not playing them this year.

 

[ilovetheoption]

You should get @ilovetheoption to provide some insight here. Iirc, Uva is his second favorite team and he follows them closer than anyone else here. If he chimes in, would love to get his take on the staus of that program. Feels weird not playing them this year.

Unfortunately, UVA comes down to Colandrea, and he's VERY hit and miss. That line feels about right to me. This feels very much like a 35-13 game to me

 

[Thwg777]

Unfortunately, UVA comes down to Colandrea, and he's VERY hit and miss. That line feels about right to me. This feels very much like a 35-13 game to me

I really appreciate the insight! I’ll take 35-13!

I’m willing to take the shot. Starting this week, I’m looking at playoff likely teams heavily favored. And figuring they start backing off the throttle since style points don’t mean as much.

I screened three in:

Purdue +28.5 against Penn State
NW +28.5 against Ohio St
Virginia +22.5 at Notre Dame

Purdue is simply unbettable, losing 8 in a row, 4 of which were by 35 or more.

NW is a maybe. Ohio State hasn’t beaten the brakes of anyone but Purdue last week (see above)

Virginia is 6-2-1 against the spread. They outscored Clemson 21-10 in the 4th quarter to backdoor cover the spread. Notre Dame destroyed a lifeless F$U team and has Army on deck. I think this is a spot where they could be complacent (NIU) meanwhile Virginia is feisty.

I’m playing with the house’s money after cashing my big season bet of under 10.5 regular season wins for u(sic)ga.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I do love the idea of the pre-army trap game, combining two of my favorite things in the world

 

[CEB]

I really appreciate the insight! I’ll take 35-13!

I’m willing to take the shot. Starting this week, I’m looking at playoff likely teams heavily favored. And figuring they start backing off the throttle since style points don’t mean as much.

I screened three in:

Purdue +28.5 against Penn State
NW +28.5 against Ohio St
Virginia +22.5 at Notre Dame

Purdue is simply unbettable, losing 8 in a row, 4 of which were by 35 or more.

NW is a maybe. Ohio State hasn’t beaten the brakes of anyone but Purdue last week (see above)

Virginia is 6-2-1 against the spread. They outscored Clemson 21-10 in the 4th quarter to backdoor cover the spread. Notre Dame destroyed a lifeless F$U team and has Army on deck. I think this is a spot where they could be complacent (NIU) meanwhile Virginia is feisty.

I’m playing with the house’s money after cashing my big season bet of under 10.5 regular season wins for u(sic)ga.

What’s the Oregon / Wiscy line?
Forecast is rain for a week and Wiscy could make it a slog fest in 70 and sunny…

I’m NOT a bettor… just a thought.

 

[Thwg777]

What’s the Oregon / Wiscy line?
Forecast is rain for a week and Wiscy could make it a slog fest in 70 and sunny…

I’m NOT a bettor… just a thought.

Wisconsin has been bouncing between +14 and +14.5. If I had to pick a side, I think it’s Wisconsin but I don’t like it as much as UVA.

For what it’s worth, fanduel opened an early line on GT v NCST at GT -6.5. That seemed low and has quickly risen to GT -8.5 which seems about right.

 

[Thwg777]

No bets on the Tennessee / dwags game from me. As tempting as it is to take the Vols and the points, I recall their last visit to the cesspool in 2022. I’ve already made money fading the dwags and am a believer in bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. So I’m not getting greedy.

if anyone is looking for action there, I do believe under 47.5 is the right play. I have no confidence in either offense and think it’s a 23-13 type game.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I really appreciate the insight! I’ll take 35-13!

I’m willing to take the shot. Starting this week, I’m looking at playoff likely teams heavily favored. And figuring they start backing off the throttle since style points don’t mean as much.

I screened three in:

Purdue +28.5 against Penn State
NW +28.5 against Ohio St
Virginia +22.5 at Notre Dame

Purdue is simply unbettable, losing 8 in a row, 4 of which were by 35 or more.

NW is a maybe. Ohio State hasn’t beaten the brakes of anyone but Purdue last week (see above)

Virginia is 6-2-1 against the spread. They outscored Clemson 21-10 in the 4th quarter to backdoor cover the spread. Notre Dame destroyed a lifeless F$U team and has Army on deck. I think this is a spot where they could be complacent (NIU) meanwhile Virginia is feisty.

I’m playing with the house’s money after cashing my big season bet of under 10.5 regular season wins for u(sic)ga.

Ugh, sorry

 

[Thwg777]

Ugh, sorry

You said Colandrea was hit or miss!

My thesis was totally wrong. ND is a solid playoff team but has all starters in in the 4th quarter, up 4 TDs and went for it 3 times and counting on 4th down. I’m not sure what’s motivating throttling UVA further but that’s football. And obviously UVA couldn’t have sucked more in the first half with four turnovers.

And despite all that, I still have a prayer in garbage time with a backdoor cover if UVA can punch one in on this drive.

 

[Thwg777]

Unfortunately, UVA comes down to Colandrea, and he's VERY hit and miss. That line feels about right to me. This feels very much like a 35-13 game to me

Money won is sometimes even sweeter when it’s a lucky 14-0 backdoor cover.

Great prediction! And it’s enough to cover +22.5

 

[ilovetheoption]

Money won is sometimes even sweeter when it’s a lucky 14-0 backdoor cover.

Great prediction! And it’s enough to cover +22.5

View attachment 17216

Glad you got the w

 

[Thwg777]

Initial impressions from scanning lines for next weekend:

Vanderbilt +9.5. Seems like an even matchup of middling SEC teams. Tigers are imploding.

Kansas +3.5. Despite a horrific start to the season, they have a chance at bowling. Colorado is overrated.

Virginia +9.5. I’m not sure if I handle another roller coaster, but it’s a good price.

Nebraska -1.5. I’ll have to look more at this. Both teams are in a tailspin, sitting at 5-5. Wisconsin coming off a narrow defeat to Oregon. Often these are spots where that team beats them twice if they can’t get over it. Seems like a good price to back the home team.