College Football Season Picks

Thwg777

Thwg777

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
816
GT opens +20.5 in the cesspool. This is about where I thought it would be. Under Key, we’ve won thrice when an underdog at this number: at Pitt (2022), at UNC (2022), and at Miami (2023).
 
stinger78

stinger78

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,919
Golden Tornadoes said:
Sounds like we have them right where we want them!
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GT will pose no issues to you, dwags. Nothing to see here…

Obi-Wan Kenobi Not The Droids GIF
 
Thwg777

Thwg777

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
816
Thwg777 said:
Initial impressions from scanning lines for next weekend:

Vanderbilt +9.5. Seems like an even matchup of middling SEC teams. Tigers are imploding.

Kansas +3.5. Despite a horrific start to the season, they have a chance at bowling. Colorado is overrated.

Virginia +9.5. I’m not sure if I handle another roller coaster, but it’s a good price.

Nebraska -1.5. I’ll have to look more at this. Both teams are in a tailspin, sitting at 5-5. Wisconsin coming off a narrow defeat to Oregon. Often these are spots where that team beats them twice if they can’t get over it. Seems like a good price to back the home team.
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Final card - Cardiac Cavs +10.5 against SMU, Ole Miss -11.5 against UF and Auburn +2.5 against aTm.

Virginia logic is their season record against the spread is too impressive to look away. SMU hasn’t blown away many teams either. And Charlottesville is a tough place to play.

I hate road chalk and don’t take laying points in the swamp lightly. But Ole Miss matches up well here. Nooner slot takes some of the energy out of the crowd.

Auburn is a gut feel. They’re better than their record suggests and aTm is overrated. Night games at Auburn in November - crazy things happen.
 
Thwg777

Thwg777

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
816
Well my initial impressions were much better, meh.

Aside from GT +20.5, other ones that jump out…

aTm +6.5. Same reasoning as Auburn last week. There are some places in college football that away teams want no part of. Texas played one good team this season and shat the bed.

Vandy +10.5 is a maybe. I think Tennessee plays tight whereas Vandy plays with nothing to lose. Maybe due to paranoia of being on a different side than the refs.

Auburn +11.5 is the right side. Auburn has a chance to go bowling after a horrific season. It’s hard to see how Alabama can get up for this after Saturday’s disaster.

Virginia +7.5 is a maybe. I’m not sure VT’s injury status. But I don’t want to give VT a chance to piss me off twice since we shouldn’t have lost to these bums so likely a no play.
 
Thwg777

Thwg777

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
816
No actual plays for me today. The following are my picks for tracking purposes.

Miss St +24.5. Not going to overthink this. Miss St is awful but that’s a lot of points considering Ole Miss’s season is over.

Auburn +11.5. Calling them the better team is an overreaction but they’re the more motivated (and likely prepared team.

GT 13 / u(sic)ga 3 - first half exacta (230-1 odds). Gut feeling.

No read in miami or clempson games.
 
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