College Football Season Picks

[slugboy]

Thanks for sharing these. It’s interesting. I agree others have an easier schedule, and I’m probably overreacting since we did win our most difficult ACC game already (by most difficult, I mean the preseason odds).

I find interesting some ACC teams such as SMU and Miami start with four OOC and then end with eight straight conference games. I can’t imagine that’s a good thing.

Miami has this

I wish they had Louisville, FSU, then us. They have a breather with Duke right before us. But maybe Manny will be ready for them.

 

[AUFC]

Thought that Castellanos 50 yard wheel route out of the back field cooked these unders early in the 2nd but FanDuel has him at 136.5 in live odds and Lewis Bond at 12.5. Still alive but I think BC is gonna start letting him chuck a bit now that State has made it a one score game.

 

[AUFC]

I got absolutely roasted in CFB this week - 0-6 (these are all +900 plays though). NFL has been going much better today though - already have hit 1 +900 after the 1pm games. 1 is in extremely good shape and 1 is gonna be a sweat.

 

[Thwg777]

I got absolutely roasted in CFB this week - 0-6 (these are all +900 plays though). NFL has been going much better today though - already have hit 1 +900 after the 1pm games. 1 is in extremely good shape and 1 is gonna be a sweat.

Good luck!

It’s been a strange couple of weeks. I hit a decent play with Nebraska -6. I took it on an early (pre-week 1 line) so it was gambling within gambling… Gambling I’d get value from the early line over the actual line (check) and then obviously gambling that it actually covers (check).

I have not done an analysis to back up what I’m about state. But it seems like parity is up. Games seem to be ending up further from spreads. This makes spread parlays even tougher and ML underdogs straight up a more worthwhile longshot IMO.

Colorado St over Colorado this week is on my radar. A trend is your friend and right now kicking Colorado when they’re down might be a good play.

 

[AUFC]

Good luck!

It’s been a strange couple of weeks. I hit a decent play with Nebraska -6. I took it on an early (pre-week 1 line) so it was gambling within gambling… Gambling I’d get value from the early line over the actual line (check) and then obviously gambling that it actually covers (check).

I have not done an analysis to back up what I’m about state. But it seems like parity is up. Games seem to be ending up further from spreads. This makes spread parlays even tougher and ML underdogs straight up a more worthwhile longshot IMO.

Colorado St over Colorado this week is on my radar. A trend is your friend and right now kicking Colorado when they’re down might be a good play.

Thanks! Both those slips hit! But one of them (the "extremely good shape one") only cashed because David Njoku got knocked out of the game on his 29 yard reception at the start of the 3rd that took him to 44 yards (O/U was 45). The sweat line, Minshew/Jakobi Meyers over had a huge reception early in the 4th that pretty much salted it away. I have a couple more slips for the remaining games - 2 have Lions unders which are looking good at halftime. One of those is paired with Rams overs - Stafford is looking okay but he isn't throwing the ball to Demarcus Robinson so I suspect that one doesn't hit tonight.

No math behind this, but I'd watch out on that CSU play because they had the Buffs on the ropes last year I remember and blew a high percentage chance of winning. I'd just guess Colorado takes them pretty seriously.

 

[Thwg777]

Thanks! Both those slips hit! But one of them (the "extremely good shape one") only cashed because David Njoku got knocked out of the game on his 29 yard reception at the start of the 3rd that took him to 44 yards (O/U was 45). The sweat line, Minshew/Jakobi Meyers over had a huge reception early in the 4th that pretty much salted it away. I have a couple more slips for the remaining games - 2 have Lions unders which are looking good at halftime. One of those is paired with Rams overs - Stafford is looking okay but he isn't throwing the ball to Demarcus Robinson so I suspect that one doesn't hit tonight.

No math behind this, but I'd watch out on that CSU play because they had the Buffs on the ropes last year I remember and blew a high percentage chance of winning. I'd just guess Colorado takes them pretty seriously.

It’s a huge rivalry - Colorado / Colorado St. But to your point about treading lightly, this is the first season in a while, I don’t have much confidence on many picks. The transfer portal makes it really difficult since it’s hard to judge the intangibles of how teams are gelling. Especially this early in the season.

Late in the season, I’m looking for opportunities to fade playoff-bound teams when they’re big favorites since I’m expecting a lot of roster management, similar to weeks 17/18 in the NFL.

 

[AUFC]

Not so much a sports betting post but does anyone find the FanDuel purchase of Bally Sports crazy? I've never really known a world where ESPN isn't king but it'll be interesting to see if FanDuel can claim sports media hegemony over the next decade. I purchased NBA League Pass today and am a little annoyed I can't watch Hawks games which are now in the purview of FanDuel Sports Network. Anecdotally, my ATLUTD interest started tailing off when it became challenging to watch their games due to Bally. MLS eventually sold the entire league's TV rights to Apple TV but it was too late for me at that point. Anyway, again, just spitballing here but interesting times in sports media.