College Basketball NIL Discussion

[AUFC]

I can see guys like Laranaga and the older generation retiring soon from the drama the NILand portal are causing. It’s full on free agency now. I’m not sure they’re cut out for this new era we’re heading into.

Larranaga has a $10M/yr salary cap to work with now. He's either winning a natty and retiring or dying of natural causes at the helm at this point.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

10 years from now, college sports will be ruined completely.

 

[davesbrain]

10 years from now, college sports will be ruined completely.

If not sooner...

 

[MtnWasp]

Visualize a hydro-electric dam. The up-stream lake being filled up is the TV revenue being shared by NCAA administrators, bloated AA budgets, inflated coach compensations, etc. The downstream trickle is the money paid to athletes via education, books room and training table. The Dam controls the flow from thelake to the stream.

The physical dam is constructed of legal exemptions, separating revenue share from the athletes. Regular markets are not maintained by such dams as revenue streams typically run like a freely flowing river. Such market forces are like gravity. The more water accumulates up-stream, the greater potential energy due to gravity working on the water.

The huge TV contracts are making the up-stream lake get more and more full. Putting stress on the dam as the force of gravity wants the mass water to flow downstream. Thus, it starts by water flowing through cracks in the dam and around the edges in the form of cheating. Gravity is unrelenting. The more water in the lake, the more force working to break down the dam.

Once the amount of water in the up-stream lake reaches a certain mass and volume, dam failure is inevitable. This is where we are. It started with the NBC contract with Notre Dame but the SEC then systematically applied normal market approaches to their interest which is being followed by the BIG via Fox. Ed O'Bannon challenged one NCAA legal exemption in court and it naturally lost, the consequence of the dam trying to hold back more water than it was meant to.

Guys, it's over. the system we knew is gone. Small budget programs can operate as before when they finally break away from the Power 5 because the dam can hold under the low forces of a low revenue, cottage, industry. But for the major programs, the system that once existed cannot function.

Things will re-organize and stabilize via normal market forces. Competition and rate of return will set the market price for talent just like any market. Right now the talent is a bubble market like Tulip bulbs or Beanie Babies. It won't last.

There is no going back unless GT drops out of the Power-5 model and moves, say, to the Colonial conference which then can be administered like the industry as it has been. If we stay Power-5, forget it. It is a professional league all the way and will be structured and administered as a professional league.

 

[GT33]

There is no going back unless GT drops out of the Power-5 model and moves, say, to the Colonial conference which then can be administered like the industry as it has been. If we stay Power-5, forget it. It is a professional league all the way and will be structured and administered as a professional league.

It either that or GT goes "pro" and ends up with Presidents/GMs who are the equivalents of what you see running the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Orlando Magic or the Seattle Kraken.

 

[lv20gt]

The more I think about it the more I think a lot of the middle of the road type of programs are going to start prioritizing multi year transfers over recruits from highschool players simply because of the added security that comes from getting players who don't have the free year of transfer left. I could see a situation where we get into a cycle where mid majors and the like recruit better but then consistently lose those recruits the following years to P5 schools. And I'm not even talking about break out players either.

 

[MtnWasp]

It either that or GT goes "pro" and ends up with Presidents/GMs who are the equivalents of what you see running the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Orlando Magic or the Seattle Kraken.

Yeah, we look like a "tweener" program to me. Too academic and lacking a big enough fan base to go toe to toe with the SEC, but with too large an athletic administration to fit in with the mid-majors. What is more prohibitive: to grow or to shrink? It is a conundrum.

 

[glandon1960]

This is heading right where I feared it would when announced - boosters at programs with deep pockets will effectively create a salary cap for their coach/team .... In football, no way GT competes with most SEC schools, or Clemson, or a few others .... In Basketball, The perrinial powers will have larger NIL buckets and effectively outbid other schools for the top talent. The gap between the haves and have nots is going to get a lot bigger as result. I don't object to the players getting money - however, there needs to be a check/balance to ensure competitive balance beyond the top 10, 20, 30, or so schools.

 

[MWBATL]

This is heading right where I feared it would when announced - boosters at programs with deep pockets will effectively create a salary cap for their coach/team .... In football, no way GT competes with most SEC schools, or Clemson, or a few others .... In Basketball, The perrinial powers will have larger NIL buckets and effectively outbid other schools for the top talent. The gap between the haves and have nots is going to get a lot bigger as result. I don't object to the players getting money - however, there needs to be a check/balance to ensure competitive balance beyond the top 10, 20, 30, or so schools.

Revenue sharing amongst top programs. That’ll happen…someday. For sure. /sarcasm

 

[MtnWasp]

Well, if we want to get creative, a common strategy for small businesses to compete with big businesses is for the small businesses to merge with each other. For instance:

As I understand it, the GTAA is it's own financial entity and is therefore distinct from the coffers of the Institute proper. I'm not sure how the facilities are handled, whether the GTAA leases land from the Institute or how that is handled.

What if the GTAA were to merge athletic departments with say, GASt and Emory forming a consortium representing Atlanta, where athletes could attend, under athletic scholarship provided by the AA to any of the three schools, thus expanding the curriculum available to athletes without compromising the academic mission of any of the schools individually. The new athletic administration would raise funds from the alumni of all three schools and the sports teams would represent all three schools.

Of course, if the board of regents would have to give approval, then it would never happen in GA, but I am not sure, if nothing is changed from the academic side of the change, that the BOR would have a say.

But this would be a way for a school like GT to stay competitive in the Power 5 without having to compromise her academic principles. But, it would take a mover and a shaker to coordinate such an endeavor.

 

[GT11]

Anybody that thought this process would work was a dumb@@@. All it did was legalize cheating. College athletics is being destroyed by this.

 

[lv20gt]

Anybody that thought this process would work was a dumb@@@. All it did was legalize cheating. College athletics is being destroyed by this.

There is no process. That's the problem. Lawmakers basically decided that it's allowed now and said good luck otherwise. Hard to even really blame the ncaa because their hands are pretty much tied with the whole NIL thing until/unless some colleges really put their weight behind it.

 

[MtnWasp]

In a society where it is nearly a religion to believe in the righteousness of Capitalism and the self-regulatory nature of the Free Market, it absolutely floors me that I should be the one to give GT fans a pep talk to allow the market to run its magic!

The NCAA's Amateur model became socialistic regulatory planned economy with the emergence of the $market$. Once the market grew to a substantial size, the entire legal, political and economic ideologies of our society came down on top the of the amateur status of the NCAA. Such a structure is legally incompatible within a capitalist system. The capitalistic ideologies are so ingrained, so integrated, normalized, legitimized and authorized as to be invisible habits of thought that we wouldn't even know how to question.

So, why are everyone's knickers in a twist when we turn over revenue producing college sports to the powers of the market, a process of which we trust so implicitly as to be blind faith?

We already had corruption, we had cheating, we had power consolidation. All the changes that were handing GT the short end of the stick were already happening before NIL. The old system was already failing. At least now we hand it over to economic forces that are trusted to the max by the population at large.

For those who share the religion of capitalism and the free market should have utter faith that, with time, the now freed market will be allowed, after a period of chaos and adjustment, settle into an equilibrium and organization that will result in the greatest good to the greatest number. Who doesn't want that?

And for those who are skeptical about the existence and benevolence of the Invisible Hand, well, you're screwed!

 

[augustabuzz]

In a society where it is nearly a religion to believe in the righteousness of Capitalism and the self-regulatory nature of the Free Market, it absolutely floors me that I should be the one to give GT fans a pep talk to allow the market to run its magic!

The NCAA's Amateur model became socialistic regulatory planned economy with the emergence of the $market$. Once the market grew to a substantial size, the entire legal, political and economic ideologies of our society came down on top the of the amateur status of the NCAA. Such a structure is legally incompatible within a capitalist system. The capitalistic ideologies are so ingrained, so integrated, normalized, legitimized and authorized as to be invisible habits of thought that we wouldn't even know how to question.

So, why are everyone's knickers in a twist when we turn over revenue producing college sports to the powers of the market, a process of which we trust so implicitly as to be blind faith?

We already had corruption, we had cheating, we had power consolidation. All the changes that were handing GT the short end of the stick were already happening before NIL. The old system was already failing. At least now we hand it over to economic forces that are trusted to the max by the population at large.

For those who share the religion of capitalism and the free market should have utter faith that, with time, the now freed market will be allowed, after a period of chaos and adjustment, settle into an equilibrium and organization that will result in the greatest good to the greatest number. Who doesn't want that?

And for those who are skeptical about the existence and benevolence of the Invisible Hand, well, you're screwed!

GTAA is a not for profit organization.

 

[kg01]

Anybody that thought this process would work was a dumb@@@. All it did was legalize cheating. College athletics is being destroyed by this.

Yep. Part of why all these dudes that made their personal fortunes off of it are walking away, leaving it in shambles.

 

[lv20gt]

In a society where it is nearly a religion to believe in the righteousness of Capitalism and the self-regulatory nature of the Free Market, it absolutely floors me that I should be the one to give GT fans a pep talk to allow the market to run its magic!

It makes a lot more sense when you realize that the "Capitalism" that most people trust so much isn't actually capitalism.

 

[CEB]

The more I think about it the more I think a lot of the middle of the road type of programs are going to start prioritizing multi year transfers over recruits from highschool players simply because of the added security that comes from getting players who don't have the free year of transfer left. I could see a situation where we get into a cycle where mid majors and the like recruit better but then consistently lose those recruits the following years to P5 schools. And I'm not even talking about break out players either.

This feels right... unfortunately. The other thing this is going to hurt is March tournament time. I suspect the Cinderella runs will start to fall off. Contrary to popular belief, basketball is still very much a team game and you can’t underestimate the value of having a group of guys playing and practicing together for 3+ years and 60+ games. Those “Cinderella” teams who were really very experienced cohesive teams will be fewer and further between as big schools cherry pick talent. It sucks when the Ramblers and Peacocks take out your team on their run, but those runs sure were fun...

 

[RamblinRed]

The US has never had and hopefully never will have an unfettered non-regulatory Capitalism. That is a recipe for disaster, just like unfettered Socialism or Communism would be.
There have always been regulations and laws that serve as guardrails. At some times there are more guardrails and sometimes there are less - but there are always some.

What is happening now in college athletics is really the complete absence of any guardrails. Until some guardrails are put in place it is going to be a very chaotic place with alot more losers than winners.
Realistically the long term is likely to look like most professional sports leagues with collective bargaining through representation and salary caps.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[orientalnc]

This from a program with one of the broadest fan bases and tons of money.