Coaching Carousel 2 - A New Dawn

[dtm1997]

After multiple years of the previous hot seat thread waiting for BG's removal, we're just about a year baked in to his successor. As such, thought it was time to start a new thread because:

A) It tends to be an interesting & fun topic for everyone.
B) This year, we can focus on how this creates opportunity for us, instead of worrying about who's filling the seat.

Thinking through some of the HM/MM+ coaches in trouble or potentially on the move (Bold = Hot Seat):

ACC

1. Mark Gottfried
2. Brad Brownell
3. Jim Christian

SEC

1. Johnny Jones
2. Kim Anderson
3. Mark Fox
4. Andy Kennedy

B1G

1. John Groce
2. Tom Crean
3. Pat Chambers
4. Thad Matta

Big 12

1. N/A

Pac12

1. Lorenzo Romar
2. Cuonzo Martin
3. Steve Alford

Big East

1. N/A

AAC

1. Kevin Ollie

Movin' on up?

1. Kevin Keatts
2. Matt McCall
3. Steve Forbes
4. Will Wade
5. Archie Miller
6. Rick Stansbury
7. Eric Musselman

I'll look to update this list (it's far from comprehensive yet) over the next couple of weeks, as well as putting some thought in to why a coach may be getting canned or making a move, along with any ancillary benefits created for GT (ie - recruits looking to get out of LOIs, turmoil at the competition, etc.).

In the meantime, the club is open, so come on in & get it poppin'.

 

[Peacone36]

I don't think Ollie is on the hot seat. Injuries have decimated his team.

Anderson is done, dead and buried.

In the Big XII I wonder how much rope Bruce Weber has.

Moving on up. Never see Kristowiaks name on those lists. I think he's an awesome coach. If I'm a west coast program (ASU, UNLV, Washington) he's my first phone call.

 

[mstranahan]

I don't think Alford is likely to leave Westwood, even for Bloomington

 

[RamblinRed]

I wondered when someone would start a thread.

i think your lists are pretty good to start.

Every one you listed in bold is likely a dead man walking right now - IND late loss last night might be the final nail for Crean.
In the ACC Gottfried is going to be gone and that is not a great thing on paper for NCST. They have Yow who doesn't have a great reputation for coaches making the hire and she retires in the next 2 yrs - most coaches don't like to be hired by someone who is disappearing - you sort of like to know who your boss is. They will almost certainly try Archie first, but he will have his pick of jobs. They could get lucky in that I see at least 3 potential job hoppers (get out before you are fired) which is a high number (Hello Bruce Weber or Tom Crean?).

I think Brownell gets let go if Clemson fails to make the NCAA, but they are still very much alive there. His buyout reduces by $1.5MM after the season so financially this is the season that makes the most sense of the next 3 years. If they make a change you have to think Wil Wade will get the first call.

I think Christian gets another year. BC has little money and his best players are FR and SO.

In the SEC, Johnnie Jones and Kim Anderson are done. Rumors are Stansbury may be in serious play at LSU - may want to look at his record at W KY - he's a heck of a recruiter but only a so so bench coach. Missou may want Cuonzo Martin (an East St. Louis native) but will probably have to fight ILL for him. Rumor is he wants back to his Midwest roots.
Can you believe Fox is tied with Calipari as the 2nd most tenured coach in the SEC. If UGA fails to make the Tourney that could get interesting. That is another job complicated by an AD who is scheduled to retire in the next couple of years. They have to beat KY at home this weekend to stay in bubble talk. Ole Miss is another that will be relagated to 2nd tier mid major guys if they make a change.

In the Big 10. I think Crean will jump after this season to a new job. His name will likely get him another HM job.
Ill is going to fire Groce and try to hold together the Big10 best recruiting class - Martin's name comes up alot. if Martin bolts to Ill don't be surprised if Charlie Moore transfers there.
Penn St may fire Chambers but I doubt they can get anything other than a run of the mill mid major to fill it.
There are rumors that Thad Matta will step down after the season for 'health reasons'. It is believed that if he does that NCST, IND and tOSU will all be in play for Archie with OSU maybe having the edge.

B12 basically made all its changes last year.
I think Bruce Weber is another one likely to jump, especially if K St falls short of the NCAA. He tends to do really well with other players recruits (Self's at Ill, Martin's at K St) but tails off when it becomes his program with his players.

PAC12 - Romar has been bad for awhile, but being 9-16 with the potential #1 draft pick is sickening.
I think Martin is likely to leave Cal. He has never stayed at one school for than 3 yrs and rumors say he wants back to the Midwest. I expect Alford to stay at UCLA, especially with the recruiting class he has coming in.

 

[Peacone36]

I doubt PSU fires Chambers. I think you have got to give him some time with the 16 class he brought in. 1 more year for him.

 

[RamblinRed]

Always fun to read this on other boards.

Here is one 'reported' list for IU (my thoughts in parentheses)

1. Donovan(would they be willing for OKC to finish the season and does Donovan have a desire to go back to college - timing feels all wrong)
2. Collins (would he leave the NW job before knowing about Duke)
3. Archie (makes sense but could have a bidding war)
4. Marshall (I could actually see this one, but he may wait for a blue blood closer to home)

Oh and like Ill they are also throwing in Bennett as well in their discussion. (Why would Bennett leave what he has built at UVA - he could have had WI last year and turned down the interest)

 

[Peacone36]

Why would Donovan leave Florida for the NBA and the eventually end up in Bloomington? I don't see that happening

 

[jeffgt14]

Don’t think I see Kevin Ollie going anywhere either. Just 4 years removed from a championship, made the tourney last year. Seems about 2 years early there.

 

[jeffgt14]

I was completely confused on why you had Cuonzo and Alford on the list but I see you have them as “on the move” not hotseat. Do you actually think there’s a better job out there for Alford than UCLA? That’s gotta be a top 10 job in the country.

Lorenzo Romar also boggles my mind. He had a stretch where he did really well there. He still gets talent every year and plays in a top heavy conference yet they suck. Is he just getting old and bored or did he just fail to adapt to the changing landscape of college ball?

 

[dtm1997]

I list Ollie, not because he's on the hot seat, but because he's a flight risk to the NBA.

 

[RamblinRed]

My fav is that as always someone has a source that says (Donovan) wants the job. Sure.
To me the timing does not work out at all. OKC is going to make the playoffs, he isn't just going to quit before the end of the season - so you are likely waiting until Late April or May. That isn't happening.

 

[kg01]

I list Ollie, not because he's on the hot seat, but because he's a flight risk to the NBA.

Heh, 'flight risk'. Good one.

So glad to not have to worry about this nonsense this year. When (if) Romar gets canned, can we put him on staff to recruit?

 

[mstranahan]

IMO, if Indiana or Ohio State offers, Miller goes. Those are two good P5 programs with solid support and deep pockets. I don't think State has any chance of landing him.

Crean to State seems like a huge reach, as it would be a massive demotion for him and i don't think his ego could handle being so far down the pecking order of conference coaches. (K, Roy, Pitino, Boeheim, Bennett are all worlds better. He would be behind both Hamilton and Larranaga.) Plus, you know it would eat him alive that his successor at Marquette is already in the league and doing pretty well. (And apparently has a nice hot tub)

Donovan back in college? I don't think so unless he can go to another pay-for-play factory like Louisville or Kentucky.

Collins ain't leaving Northwestern unless Duke tells him he has no shot of following K.

FWIW, my Clemson buds say Brownell is safe with the IPTAY crowd. As long as Dabo has football rolling, hoops is just something to do between their bowl game and spring practice.

Of the schools being widely discussed, only Indiana is a premier job. Ohio State, Illinois, LSU, NC State, Washington, K State, LSU & Mizzou are all middle of the pack P5 programs. They have made a top 20 appearance occasionally, but are usually on the bubble in a good year and in the NIT most of the time. Most have money to spend (some more than others), but none have been consistent players on the national scene. Penn State is utterly irrelevant in hoops.

 

[jeffgt14]

Is Indiana really that good of a job anymore? Ohio State to me seems to be a better draw for high school kids than Indiana.

 

[mstranahan]

Interesting question... I looked up previous 15 years (including this year) to see what the records look like
OSU: 365 - 149 overall. 160-90 in B1G. 5 first place, 1 second place. 8 years 5th or worse. 9 NCCAT. 3 NIT. 2 whiffs. 8 NBA players
Indiana: 278 -204 overall. 127 - 129 in B1G. 2 first place. 2 thirds & 2 fourths. 8 years 5th or worse. 8 NCAAT. 1 NIT. 5 whiffs. 6 NBA players

Looking at the data, I gotta say I'm obviously subject to the halo effect and I'm giving IU way too much credit based on what they did in the 70s - 90s and not paying attention to the Jekkyl and Hyde show they've been since Knight got fired.

I still think IU has more appeal to the coaching fraternity, but can see why some would say it's just another middle of the pack job like OSU & Illinois.

 

[Peacone36]

Ohio St is a better job than all those other schools mentioned above. To me it's on Indianas level

 

[Peacone36]

Keith Dambrot might get a look at OhST. He has made Akron into a perennial top program in the MAC.

 

[YlJacket]

Indiana's mystique used to be at least partially tied to the high level of HS play there. I haven't looked in a long time but does anyone know if Indiana is still a mecca for HS basketball talent?

 

[dtm1997]

Indiana's mystique used to be at least partially tied to the high level of HS play there. I haven't looked in a long time but does anyone know if Indiana is still a mecca for HS basketball talent?

I wanna say it was Bryant McIntosh at Northwestern that commented Cream doesn't recruit Indiana.

One of the many issues.

 

[RamblinRed]

One note I just read. Fultz will be the 6th 1st round draft pick since 2011 for Washington, Number of NCAA appearances during that time period - 0.

Another name to keep in mind as a possible coaching change- JTIII at Georgetown. Currently 14-12 this season, been a decade since the Sweet Sixteen.