Coaches on the Hotseat

[GT_EE78]

Sure, each article seems to mention Ariz.Auburn,USC,Kansas,LSU but we already know what's not likely.
-
Three articles are linked and I'll list the "traditional" hot-seaters before each link
-
DANNY MANNING, Wake Forest
JOSH PASTNER, Georgia Tech
JIM CHRISTIAN, Boston College
SHAKA SMART, Texas
PAT CHAMBERS, Penn State
TIM JANKOVICH, SMU
FRANK HAITH, Tulsa
JEROD HAASE, Stanford
DAVE LEITAO, DePaul
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...ll-coaches-are-in-danger-of-losing-their-job/
-
Brad Brownell – Clemson
JOSH PASTNER, Georgia Tech
Patrick Ewing – Georgetown
JEROD HAASE, Stanford
Mike Boynton – Oklahoma State
https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/09/10/ncaa-basketball-5-coaches-hot-seat-2019-20-season/
-
DANNY MANNING, Wake Forest
JOSH PASTNER, Georgia Tech
JIM CHRISTIAN, Boston College
PAT CHAMBERS, Penn State
Tim Jankovich, SMU
DAVE LEITAO, DePaul
SHAKA SMART, Texas
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...s-whose-jobs-could-be-on-the-line-in-2019-20/

 

[IronJacket7]

ok

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We have 4 guys in the top 125 (recruiting) this year, plus some guys really developing and coming on. If we can win 18-20+ games and if we land a good big man in this recruiting class, then I think Pastner can live another year. We have nearly all of our players from last year coming back.

Elon, Bethune Cookman, Nebraska, Ball State, Boise State, Morehouse
Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
20 ACC Games

We need to go minimum 6-1 in the first group, and 1-2 in the second group. That's 7-3 minimum...ideally 8-2.
10-10 in the ACC takes us to 18-12.

Without any injuries or extraneous circumstances, that smells like the minimum to me. 17-13 maybe.

 

[GT_EE78]

We have 4 guys in the top 125 (recruiting) this year, plus some guys really developing and coming on. If we can win 18-20+ games and if we land a good big man in this recruiting class, then I think Pastner can live another year. We have nearly all of our players from last year coming back.

Elon, Bethune Cookman, Nebraska, Ball State, Boise State, Morehouse
Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
20 ACC Games

We need to go minimum 6-1 in the first group, and 1-2 in the second group. That's 7-3 minimum...ideally 8-2.
10-10 in the ACC takes us to 18-12.

Without any injuries or extraneous circumstances, that smells like the minimum to me. 17-13 maybe.

I've always thought i'd be able to decide if CJP was a keeper after the fourth year and that our AD should too which is why i'm still irritated about that contract extension which may have pushed the buyout affordibility back a year. I think your right about him surviving another year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I've always thought i'd be able to decide if CJP was a keeper after the fourth year and that our AD should too which is why i'm still irritated about that contract extension which may have pushed the buyout affordibility back a year. I think your right about him surviving another year.

Regardless of the record, if we finish somewhere around the middle of the conference, that's not where we want to be long term, but its an improvement. We haven't been above 0.500 in ACC play in 16 years (not a typo) and its only been done twice in the last 25 years (boy is that sad). We were exactly last 0.500 13 years ago. So we'd have to acknowledge that's an improvement. I wouldn't give him a big extension, but I'd definitely give him more runway.

 

[YlJacket]

Regardless of the record, if we finish somewhere around the middle of the conference, that's not where we want to be long term, but its an improvement. We haven't been above 0.500 in ACC play in 16 years (not a typo) and its only been done twice in the last 25 years (boy is that sad). We were exactly last 0.500 13 years ago. So we'd have to acknowledge that's an improvement. I wouldn't give him a big extension, but I'd definitely give him more runway.

Right now we have been building for 4 years and expect to be better with a hope/expectation that we may be a middle of the ACC type of team. That isn't the trajectory or top end of what I would sign a coach for with his "best" team. And his best team still has major questions about how it will play and where points will come from. Plus the core of this peak team is now going to start graduating (as college teams all do) and we don't have obvious replacements for multiple key players. So while I am happy to see progress and will be cheering to see us make the middle, I don't see this as any basis for any extension of any type. He has some runway on his current deal but I need to see a ton more before any small, medium or large extension is contemplated. And if you ask me whether I think we will get to that point .......

 

[smokey_wasp]

Nice to hear Gary Parrish's 2 cents there.

 

[joehamiltonfan14]

I believe that with our resources (city of Atlanta, state of Georgia to recruit, ACC) we should regularly be in the NCAA tournament and the top half of the ACC, with occasional top third finishes. I don’t think Pastner is going to ever get us there, sadly, though the right coach could. I hope he proves me wrong though. Gotta get better results on the recruiting trail for that to happen.

 

[mstranahan]

Our last winning ACC season was 2004. Every other ACC school has has at least one winning ACC season in past ten years. Our NCAA drought (2010 was last one) is 14th of 16 ACC schools. This is not a Pastner issue. Our basketball program has been in purgatory for longer than the current HS seniors have been out of diapers. It's going to take time to turn it around and get it back to the Price/Salley/Hammonds/Ferrell days.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Our last winning ACC season was 2004. Every other ACC school has has at least one winning ACC season in past ten years. Our NCAA drought (2010 was last one) is 14th of 16 ACC schools. This is not a Pastner issue. Our basketball program has been in purgatory for longer than the current HS seniors have been out of diapers. It's going to take time to turn it around and get it back to the Price/Salley/Hammonds/Ferrell days.

We’ve had 2 winning seasons in ACC play in the last like 30 years. I just looked it up. THIS is a historic rebuild. Not the crap people complain about in football, which is the polar opposite (1 losing season in ACC play in the last 25 years, tops in the ACC).

The process will probably be slow and methodical for recruits. Get a guy in the NBA most years, gradually win a few more games each year, and the recruits will gradually get better. These guys have $50m over their heads in lifetime earnings. You don’t need to take any risks with that. We’ve got an 18-20+ win roster this year. Now we just need to do it.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

We have 4 guys in the top 125 (recruiting) this year, plus some guys really developing and coming on. If we can win 18-20+ games and if we land a good big man in this recruiting class, then I think Pastner can live another year. We have nearly all of our players from last year coming back.

Elon, Bethune Cookman, Nebraska, Ball State, Boise State, Morehouse
Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
20 ACC Games

We need to go minimum 6-1 in the first group, and 1-2 in the second group. That's 7-3 minimum...ideally 8-2.
10-10 in the ACC takes us to 18-12.

Without any injuries or extraneous circumstances, that smells like the minimum to me. 17-13 maybe.

Didn't realize we had recruited so well.

I still give Pastner a pass for last year and the BS legal problems.

Hope we win 20+ this year and then keep improving.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Didn't realize we had recruited so well.

I still give Pastner a pass for last year and the BS legal problems.

Hope we win 20+ this year and then keep improving.

I just re-looked, and I’m off a bit as Alvarado is a hair outside.

Devoe (50), Banks (60), Usher (105), Alvarado (130).

 

[RamblinRed]

My daughter's getting married next week so I am not around much right now but I wanted to respond a little to 2 topics in this thread.

First on whether Pastner is on the 'hot seat'.
IMO the simple answer to that is no. Pundits make these determinations without looking seriously into the situations and contracts.
If GT fired Pastner after year 4 he would be owed 100% the remaining value of his contract. That percentage does not decrease until after year 5. Also, if you are going to make a change the #1 question should always be can you hire someone better than the current coach. IMO that answer right now is a strong no. No good coach is going to come to GT right now with the penalties handed down by the NCAA. The GTAA also spent all its money on the FB program this year so it wouldn't be able to offer a market rate salary anyways further reducing the coaching pool.

You should not make a change unless you have a chance to get a better coach. Right now the earliest that could happen is after year 5 and maybe not until after year 6. Until then we just see if Pastner can get things going or not. If he can then great, if not then wait until the situation improves to where we can legitimately make the program better.

Second, on GT basketball history in the ACC.
GT was really only a consistently good team in the ACC from 1984 to 1996 and especially from 85-93.
GT has only finished above .500 in the ACC 7 times, 6 times under Cremins (85, 86, 88, 89, 90, 96) and once under Hewitt 2004. It finished in the top third of the ACC 4 times (85, 86, 90, 96).
There has been little sustained success in the ACC and really no sustained success since 1993. Heck there has only been 13 20+ win seasons in the last 38 yrs as an ACC member (Cremins 8, Hewitt 3, Gregory and Pastner once each), and only 16 in the history of the school.

in terms of middle of the pack. GT finished within a game of .500 or better in 13 of 19 seasons under Cremins (though 0 of the last 4), 8 of 11 seasons under Hewitt (though only 1 of the last 3, and 3 of the last 6), 1 of 5 seasons under Gregory and 1 of 3 seasons under Pastner. so 23 out of 38 ACC seasons so far and 10 of the last 23.
I think there is potential for GT to be a consistent top half of the ACC member, but anything greater than that is unlikely.

 

[THWG16]

I believe that with our resources (city of Atlanta, state of Georgia to recruit, ACC) we should regularly be in the NCAA tournament and the top half of the ACC, with occasional top third finishes. I don’t think Pastner is going to ever get us there, sadly, though the right coach could. I hope he proves me wrong though. Gotta get better results on the recruiting trail for that to happen.

I agree , I think GT basketball should be in ncaa tourney 8/10 years on average

 

[tsrich]

Related, how has Shaka Smart not been more successful at Tx? I would have bet he'd be one of the most successful of the mid-major coaches moving up a few years ago.

 

[Peacone36]

He hasn’t been able to land shooters

He may have his best season this year. He has some perimeter weapons

 

[slugboy]

I agree , I think GT basketball should be in ncaa tourney 8/10 years on average

I'd be elated with 5/10.

 

[lv20gt]

First on whether Pastner is on the 'hot seat'.
IMO the simple answer to that is no. Pundits make these determinations without looking seriously into the situations and contracts.

I think whether Pastner is on the hot seat depends on how you view the expression. For the reasons you listed I don't think Pastner will be fired after this year pretty much regardless. I do think however that this year could more or less seal his fate even if the actual firing comes later. If we have a season that would normally see us needing to win the ACCT to make the NCAAT then I think Pastner would be all but done. It might be like Hewitt after the 08-09 year where it's just a matter of waiting for the next down year that will inevitably come, but I don't think he would survive. I fully believe that this year Pastner is coaching for his future job, which is why I would say he's on the hotseat.

 

[YlJacket]

I think whether Pastner is on the hot seat depends on how you view the expression. For the reasons you listed I don't think Pastner will be fired after this year pretty much regardless. I do think however that this year could more or less seal his fate even if the actual firing comes later. If we have a season that would normally see us needing to win the ACCT to make the NCAAT then I think Pastner would be all but done. It might be like Hewitt after the 08-09 year where it's just a matter of waiting for the next down year that will inevitably come, but I don't think he would survive. I fully believe that this year Pastner is coaching for his future job, which is why I would say he's on the hotseat.

I agree with this sentiment as this year will go a long way to establishing the ceiling for Pastner - with the expectation that how the team plays this year will drive recruiting in a critical year for restocking the roster (transfer or freshman either way). In order to solidly move into the top half of the ACC we are going to need to recruit at a higher level or catch another Okogie in a bottle - or both. Hard to imagine that happening if we play at a level that wouldn't make the tourney.

For Pastner, I wouldn't expect we would wait for an inevitable downturn but rather simply ride the contract down until we have sufficient funds to make a legit hire that would bring the necessary gravitas.

 

[lv20gt]

For Pastner, I wouldn't expect we would wait for an inevitable downturn but rather simply ride the contract down until we have sufficient funds to make a legit hire that would bring the necessary gravitas.

What I meant is that with Hewitt we didn't fire him the year he had Favors and company because we did pretty well, even if you think we should have done better. Hewitt's fate was sealed a couple of years before he was actually fired. Likewise, I could see a bad year this year dooming pastner to the point where even making the NCAAT next year couldn't really save him. He'd have to probably string together 2 or more NCAAT appearances to earn any leeway back.

I don't think it'll reach that point though as I expect us to do pretty good this year.