Clemson Game Open - GT opens at 26.5-27 point dog

[slugboy]

Not much hope from the team over at Athlon. They pick Clemson 45- GT 13.

Last year, we saw that Trevor Lawrence could outrun our DBs. Etienne should be even faster. It'll be a trick to get a linebacker to catch Etienne in the backfield or stop him from eating up yards. Passing is just the icing on the cake, but Clemson puts up a ton of icing. Thacker will have to be at his best coaching in this game.

I'm not even sure how we'll line up on defense. We're supposed to have a 4-2-5 base, but we've been lining up 3 DL a lot lately (I'll have to go and look at the last game and slow it down)

This is from the ESPN page for the game (that's my citation, go look there for more info ):

Team Stats​
Points Per Game	42.3	25.8
Points Allowed Per Game	13.3	31.5
Total Yards	495.5	453.0
Yards Passing	310.0	239.3
Yards Rushing	185.5	213.8
Yards Allowed	279.8	448.8
Pass Yards Allowed	190.0	259.5
Rush Yards Allowed	89.8	189.3

On paper, you have to think Clemson gets their 45 points, since we've been giving up an average of 32, and they're in a different league than any team we've played so far.

My first thought, looking at their personnel, was "we have to stop the run". My first thought might be wrong, because 63% of their yardage is through passes, and we've been really vulnerable to the pass. Lawrence is more accurate than anyone we've faced. Against other teams, we've seen a wide receiver beat us, but the pass was overthrown or just dropped--that won't happen Saturday.

On offense, Miami only got 121 through the air. Hopefully, we can get more, but I think we have similar athleticism to UM. I expect Clemson to focus on stopping the run and the pass plays that feel like runs (screens, running back passes) and dare us to pass over their heads. Their DBs are really good, and we haven't shown a deep threat this year (that is, we're not connecting on long bombs). We really need to be efficient and hit a enough big plays to loosen them up.

Our ATL isn't posted yet, but here are the game notes from our AA.

 

[ibeattetris]

Lawrence is more accurate than anyone we've faced. Against other teams, we've seen a wide receiver beat us, but the pass was overthrown or just dropped--that won't happen Saturday.

+100
We need our CB's to have their best game of the season.

 

[jacketup]

Great analysis slugboy.

Everyone wants to talk about skill positions, but Clemson is a great team because of the trenches. Our success on offense will depend on our OL, which is much better than last year. But can it block the best DL it will see? I'll be interested in that match-up.

I hate to say it, but we just aren't there on D. We don't have the horses yet. Their OL will be able to protect Lawrence and block for Etienne. We are better at DE this year, but it takes an entire front 7. I expect Clayton and Jackson to make some noise, but it won't be enough.

I mostly want to come out of this game as a healthy team.

 

[dmel25]

I sure hope ou are right. I will toast a glass of Woodfords Reserve in your direction if we are close at the end.

I'm telling you man we will win. I had a dream last night that we got 3 turnovers and Sims threw the game winning TD and we won by 4. I am predicting this will happen. I am Nostradamusing this win.

 

[Lee]

If this game is within 3 tds at halftime I will be pleased.

I just hope we stay healthy and this doesn’t impact Sims’ confidence going forward. He doesn’t shake easily as evidenced to how he’s reacted to adversity thus far, but Clemson is on another planet. And Venebales (sp) is one of the best DCs in all of football.

Defensively, it’s going to be ugly. Louisville seemingly ran the ball at will against us. Clemson’s OL is significantly better and ETN is one of the best backs in the country. Add in Lawrence being a generational talent at QB with some elite WRs and it gets even worse. If they don’t score 50 I’ll be surprised.

I hope I’m wrong. I promise you I won’t be the guy coming back in here to say I told you so (I can’t stand that from people who predict negative things). I’m just sharing my expectations going into the game.

If I am wrong and we happen to win, I will gladly point out how stupid I am and will be even more excited about the trajectory of our program than I am now.

 

[slugboy]

I would say that this is off-topic, but given what Saturday afternoon is going to likely look like, I think the choice of brown beverage is an entirely on-topic conversation. I'll say about whiskey (and whisky) the same thing I say about beer when asked "what's a good beer?" I always say "a good beer is one you like." Whiskey prices are set more by marketing and scarcity than by actual taste. So enjoy what you enjoy without some weird sense that you are missing out! They all get the job done.

Looking at slugboy's data, Clemson looks like a terrible matchup for us (beyond just their being the undisputed #1 team in the country with two Heisman candidates.) They excel at our weaknesses. I really wish we were playing the sandwich game between their UM and ND games....that's the only way I'd feel we had a real chance.

Clemson is a terrible matchup for all but 3-8 teams (Ohio State, Alabama, the school in Athens, Penn State, Notre Dame, maybe Oregon). Notre Dame is a level better than Miami on offense and defense, so far, but they haven't played Clemson yet. UNC's best shot--if they make the ACC Championship--is making it a track meet, because they won't stop Clemson's offense.

I think this game is a good test for our players and coaches. But, like water finds the weakest point, so will Clemson.

 

[85Escape]

If I am wrong and we happen to win, I will gladly point out how stupid I am and will be even more excited about the trajectory of our program than I am now.

1000%

I will never be happier to admit that I'm an idiot who is wasting oxygen than I will be if we beat Clempson.

 

[stech81]

I think this game is a good test for our players and coaches. But, like water finds the weakest point, so will Clemson.

Lets hope we studied for the test better than I did for my first test in thermodynamics

 

[slugboy]

Lets hope we studied for the test better than I did for my first test in thermodynamics

The three laws of a thermo test:
1. You can't get more than 100%
2. You can't even get 100%
3. You can't drop the class

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[Primus_GT]

Clemson is a great team, but they aren’t machines. We are way better than last year and they are still very good to great. We have some playmakers who will make some plays. When on defense I may close my eyes because Lawrence will shred us. But coming off the “big“ game with Miami and a noon start I see them playing down a bit. Our guys have nothing to lose. Choice and Moore will have the boys pumped to play. I think we cover due to lackadaisical play by Clemson.

Clemson‘s fourth string quarterback and fifth string running back, a.k.a. The Waterboys, are playing in the fourth quarter and scoring. They are definitely a machine. And a fine tuned one at that...

 

[Primus_GT]

As deep as their 5 stars go, rotating players is irrelevant. So the stats.

Clemson
310 pass yds avg vs 190 allowed.
185 rush yds avg vs 89 allowed.
24.8 vs 14.3 allowed first downs.
Avg pass yards per completion 12.4
Redzone D .77
Avg 3rd down conversion perc. .525

GT
239 pass yds avg vs 259 allowed.
213 rush yds avg vs 189 allowed.
22.3 vs 22.5 allowed first downs.
Avg pass yards per completion 14.07
Redzone D .800
Avg 3rd down conversion perc .443


I could keep going. The fact of the matter is, while they are better than us in most stats, they are NOT off the charts.

My point was: if Trevor is getting 300 yards in the first half and comes out of the game fairly early in the second half, he could easily have had 400 yards passing per game. There are so many games I have witnessed where their stats could’ve been double what they ended up being. Keep in mind that when their second and third string quarterback’s Come in and go three and out very easily, it gives the opposing teams offense and opportunity to pad their own stats in meaningless fashion. I have seen this over and over again. This has been discussed over and over again on the national level. Clemson has a reputation for developing their depth. That means allowing most of their players to play meaningful time. That comes at the cost of so-called stats.

 

[Primus_GT]

My point was: if Trevor is getting 300 yards in the first half and comes out of the game fairly early in the second half, he could easily have had 400 yards passing per game. There are so many games I have witnessed where their stats could’ve been double what they ended up being. Keep in mind that when their second and third string quarterback’s Come in and go three and out very easily, it gives the opposing teams offense and opportunity to pad their own stats in meaningless fashion. I have seen this over and over again. This has been discussed over and over again on the national level. Clemson has a reputation for developing their depth. That means allowing most of their players to play meaningful time. That comes at the cost of so-called stats.

It is also in my humble opinion that rotating players is not irrelevant. The second, third, fourth string players do not produce the same stats as the first teams. The offensive stats would be greatly improved, if they are not high enough already, as were the defensive stats. The second and third team defense often gives up long drives and touchdowns. No other team, not even Alabama or Ohio State substitutes players at the same level that Clemson does.

 

[g0lftime]

The only way the OC or DC are replaced is the really big donor's threaten to hold the big donations and TS has to listen or he won't get his projects done and the AT Fund drops. Not sure how loyal Collins will be to his guys but TS may force him to make changes. That 7 year contract may come back to haunt TS if GC is unwilling to make changes. I personally don't think he makes any changes for next year regardless of our record this year.

 

[billga99]

I think you make the decision based on the overall season, not one game. Getting killed by Clemson was terrible, but the loss to Syracuse is even worse. That is one game we should have never lossed (and they got rolled by Liberty today). So the question on the coordinators and Collins depends on how they finish. If they get 4 or 5 wins, I think an acceptable season and progress for the future. If they don't win but 2 or 3 for the year, changes have to be considered. And another big concern is if they wet the bed the rest of the way, how does recruiting play out.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Collins has already shown promise in the recruiting. How many 70 point losses does it take to ruin even the best recruiting pitch though? It’s just one game, but the remainder of the season is crucial to the future of this program, IMO. I think a 5-6 or better season is enough improvement and forward momentum from last year that he’ll be able to continue build. If we only win 4 games or worse, I’m afraid the great recruiting will soon look like empty promises to a lot of kids.