Clemson favored early spread

[forensicbuzz]

Seems pretty obvious to me. Stack the box on first down and get them into second down and eight. If they try to throw on on first down, I like our DBs v their WRs.

Not if we don't get some pressure. If we do, I agree with you.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I agree. I think most understand that Clemson is a very dangerous team that has underperformed most of the season. If they breakout against us it could get ugly, or if their very good D is able to stifle our O. Both could happen, both might not. IMPO, this game could go a lot of ways.

Yeah, I think several of us are on the same page. Clemson could finally put together their perfect game, knock us out of our rhythm, and end up winning 38-14.

It would not mean this team has not gotten better. It could just be one of those days.

 

[Bogey]

This game means the world to me if we win to become bowl eligible against Clemson. But a lost doesn't bother me at all because we will still have a chance against Syracuse to go bowling.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This game means the world to me if we win to become bowl eligible against Clemson. But a lost doesn't bother me at all because we will still have a chance against Syracuse to go bowling.

I wouldn’t say that the loss wouldn’t bother me but I think most of us will be able to keep it in perspective given the mature adults that we are.

 

[stinger78]

This game means the world to me if we win to become bowl eligible against Clemson. But a lost doesn't bother me at all because we will still have a chance against Syracuse to go bowling.

It would really pressurize the Syracuse game, but that's the result of not showing up for the BG game and blowing the L'ville and BC games. They really just need to go out and win this Saturday up in Tiggerland.

 

[LT 1967]

Definitely. Depth helps a LOT when you have to chase all game. However, we've also played UNC/Miami who have almosTeant equal defensive depth. Miami did a good job against us. UNC we obliterated in the 2nd half with the east-west concept. I think the UNC game our offense finally found its footing. Remember, we also run tempo. At some point, your depth starts to suffer because you're dipping into reserves who may not have played much this year, or are not as physically talented as the starters. I'd say Clemson has some VERY talented reserves, but are they capable of playing to the level of the 2 deep? Very rare for coaches to venture out of the 2 deep outside of injuries.

We'll see Saturday.n

Your thoughts about the two deep reminded me to post a summary that I have worked on for a couple of days based on Phil Steele's preseason magazine. Concerning talent rankings, Steele consolidates several different ranking services like Rivals, 247 Sports, ESPN, Tom Lemmings, etc. He then assigns a numerical ranking for each position (PS# for Phil Steel). This is a National Rank. For example, Haynes King's ranking in Phil's system was the #7 Quarterback in the USA coming out of high school. Drake May was #9 in Phil's ranking. I don't present this as being conclusive, but just a general feel for the two deep talent at each of the ACC programs. This is based on Steele's Projected two deep or top 44 players. His projection was pretty accurate for GT's top 44 or two deep. Phil also covers each position 3 and 4 deep, but this summary is only two deep.

Allow me a deviation of plus or minus One. Phil crams a lot of numerical data into two pages using a lot of 6-point type which can lead to errors.


PLAYER RANK-------------------1 Through 25----------26 through 50------------51 Through 75-------------76 Through 100-------------Total Top 100 Players in the two deep

Clemson-----------------------------28------------------------10------------------------0----------------------------3----------------------------41 out of 44
Miami-------------------------------12-------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------28
UNC---------------------------------13-------------------------4-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------27
NCS-----------------------------------7-------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------7----------------------------26
FSU-----------------------------------7-------------------------4--------------------------7----------------------------7----------------------------25
GT------------------------------------6--------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------22
Pitt-----------------------------------3--------------------------6-------------------------4-----------------------------8---------------------------21
Louisville-----------------------------7--------------------------4-------------------------3----------------------------4----------------------------18
BC------------------------------------3--------------------------4-------------------------3----------------------------5----------------------------15
Syracuse----------------------------- 2--------------------------2-------------------------4----------------------------5----------------------------13
DUKE---------------------------------0--------------------------4-------------------------4----------------------------4----------------------------12
VT------------------------------------0--------------------------6--------------------------1----------------------------3---------------------------10
UVA----------------------------------0--------------------------5--------------------------4----------------------------1---------------------------10
WF-----------------------------------0--------------------------3--------------------------3----------------------------3-----------------------------9

As everyone knows, many of our top Ranked players are Transfers from SEC, B1G, ND. Any Thoughts?

 

[roadkill]

Your thoughts about the two deep reminded me to post a summary that I have worked on for a couple of days based on Phil Steele's preseason magazine. Concerning talent rankings, Steele consolidates several different ranking services like Rivals, 247 Sports, ESPN, Tom Lemmings, etc. He then assigns a numerical ranking for each position (PS# for Phil Steel). This is a National Rank. For example, Haynes King's ranking in Phil's system was the #7 Quarterback in the USA coming out of high school. Drake May was #9 in Phil's ranking. I don't present this as being conclusive, but just a general feel for the two deep talent at each of the ACC programs. This is based on Steele's Projected two deep or top 44 players. His projection was pretty accurate for GT's top 44 or two deep. Phil also covers each position 3 and 4 deep, but this summary is only two deep.

Allow me a deviation of plus or minus One. Phil crams a lot of numerical data into two pages using a lot of 6-point type which can lead to errors.


PLAYER RANK-------------------1 Through 25----------26 through 50------------51 Through 75-------------76 Through 100-------------Total Top 100 Players in the two deep

Clemson-----------------------------28------------------------10------------------------0----------------------------3----------------------------41 out of 44
Miami-------------------------------12-------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------28
UNC---------------------------------13-------------------------4-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------27
NCS-----------------------------------7-------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------7----------------------------26
FSU-----------------------------------7-------------------------4--------------------------7----------------------------7----------------------------25
GT------------------------------------6--------------------------6-------------------------6----------------------------4----------------------------22
Pitt-----------------------------------3--------------------------6-------------------------4-----------------------------8---------------------------21
Louisville-----------------------------7--------------------------4-------------------------3----------------------------4----------------------------18
BC------------------------------------3--------------------------4-------------------------3----------------------------5----------------------------15
Syracuse----------------------------- 2--------------------------2-------------------------4----------------------------5----------------------------13
DUKE---------------------------------0--------------------------4-------------------------4----------------------------4----------------------------12
VT------------------------------------0--------------------------6--------------------------1----------------------------3---------------------------10
UVA----------------------------------0--------------------------5--------------------------4----------------------------1---------------------------10
WF-----------------------------------0--------------------------3--------------------------3----------------------------3-----------------------------9

As everyone knows, many of our top Ranked players are Transfers from SEC, B1G, ND. Any Thoughts?

Looks like there are 3 tiers in the ACC - the Bottom tier of teams with few top-100s (WF - BC), the Middle tier that includes us (Louisville - Miami), and then Clemson in a class by itself.

 

[Bogey]

It would really pressurize the Syracuse game, but that's the result of not showing up for the BG game and blowing the L'ville and BC games. They really just need to go out and win this Saturday up in Tiggerland.

This team seems to need a little pressure to perform at its best. Maybe this is why we play better against ranked opponents?

 

[bobongo]

This team seems to need a little pressure to perform at its best. Maybe this is why we play better against ranked opponents?

Would it shock anyone if Tech beats Clemson in Death Valley and loses to Syracuse at home? I hope we've seen that pattern break, but it's not confirmed.

 

[Bogey]

Would it shock anyone if Tech beats Clemson in Death Valley and loses to Syracuse at home? I hope we've seen that pattern break, but it's not confirmed.

Not me, typical Yellow Jacket football!

---

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

Would it shock anyone if Tech beats Clemson in Death Valley and loses to Syracuse at home? I hope we've seen that pattern break, but it's not confirmed.

Just like we are a trap game this week for Clempson, Syracuse is a trap game for us next week squished between Clempson and ugag.

 

[Thwg777]

I haven’t done quantitative analysis to compare us to other teams but qualitatively I believe we’re one of the most volatile teams in college football compared to the spread. By that I mean since late Sept (the Wake Forest game), every final result in a GT game has been no where even close to the initial spread. Incredible performance every time we’ve been an underdog and the opposite when favored.

5-0 as an underdog straight up including 3 wins as a double digit dog and double digit wins as a small dog.

While we could very well lose close, there’s much more value in going for the +500 GT money line B-)

 

[Lil G]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this- it might be drizzling at the start of the game. Hopefully clears up, we REALLY need to be able to sling it downfield. Wet ball in Miami made king go 12 for 25 and two int’s

 

[Chas_Jacket]

Latest shows raining up until game time then clearing. Advantage to the receivers on a wet field. Malik and Singleton are hard to cover when it’s dry

 

[bobongo]

I haven’t done quantitative analysis to compare us to other teams but qualitatively I believe we’re one of the most volatile teams in college football compared to the spread. By that I mean since late Sept (the Wake Forest game), every final result in a GT game has been no where even close to the initial spread. Incredible performance every time we’ve been an underdog and the opposite when favored.

5-0 as an underdog straight up including 3 wins as a double digit dog and double digit wins as a small dog.

While we could very well lose close, there’s much more value in going for the +500 GT money line B-)

I wonder if any other team in the country lost as a 20-point favorite (Bowling Green) and won as a 20-point underdog (Miami)? Tech did that in successive games.

 

[Root4GT]

I've seen some people say "If I were Dabo, I'd run the ball and then I'd run the ball more". With that in mind (thank you GameOnPaper for being free)

When Passing
Plays	340
Plays/Game	38 T-#25
Total EPA	8.74 #63
EPA/Play	0.03 #65
EPA/Game	0.97 #63
Success Rate	44.7% #41

When Rushing
Plays	312
Plays/Game	35 T-#47
Total EPA	-12.80 #102
EPA/Play	-0.04 #97
EPA/Game	-1.42 #102
Success Rate	44.5% #28

So, Clemson's passing game contributes to them winning a lot more than their running game does. They have 15 TDs through the air, and 16 on the ground, but 3 of the rushing TDs are from Klubnik.
In their wins,

• Notre Dame: Clemson's offensive stats weren't great. 187 yards rushing (186 from Mafah), passed for 109 yards, one INT, one sack, xQBR of 25
• Charleston Southern and FAU: I do not think these games are going to tell us much, so I'm ignoring them.
• Syracuse: 263 through the air, 143 on the ground. 6.6 yards/play passing; 4.5 yards/play rushing. xQBR of 81. Big plays were 2 TD passes by Klubnik. Story of the game is that the defense completely bottled up Syracuse--even with Shrader.
• Wake Forest: won 17-12. Shipley ran for a TD and so did Klubnik. Passed for 131, ran for 217.

It looks more like Clemson is going to get some yards on the ground. They might score a lot, but they win more by choking out your offense than they do by boat racing you with their offense.

Have you watched GT’s defense? Any comparison between our defense and ND’s defense is pointless. ND has a good defense. Our defense has sucked this year, again.

 

[cpf2001]

Given how bad our defense has been against the run, Clemson having a bad running game is relatively good news for sure.

movable objects and resistable forces and all

 

[slugboy]

Given how bad our defense has been against the run, Clemson having a bad running game is relatively good news for sure.

movable objects and resistable forces and all

They don’t necessarily have a bad running game. It just hasn’t been the key to them winning

 

[bobongo]

They don’t necessarily have a bad running game. It just hasn’t been the key to them winning

I'm not understanding this at all. It looks like they couldn't have won without their running game in at least two of their three P-5 wins, as you seem to have pointed out in an earlier post:

"Notre Dame: Clemson's offensive stats weren't great. 187 yards rushing (186 from Mafah), passed for 109 yards, one INT, one sack, xQBR of 25
Wake Forest: won 17-12. Shipley ran for a TD and so did Klubnik. Passed for 131, ran for 217."

So in those two wins, they ran for 404 yds. and passed for 240 yds. How could they have won without their running game?