Clemson favored early spread

[grandpa jacket]

Clemson is 13.5 favorite

I think that is too high, i expected around 9 or 10 point favorite

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I agree I think Clemson is better than most on here think. We would have been better playing them early in the year.
Not saying we can't win but I don't like our odds. I just think their offense is better than our defense.

Best chance is if Clemson comes out flat after the ND win. They actually have very little to play for.

 

[57jacket]

Plenty now on line for Yellow Jackets when they visit Clemson

What a difference a couple weeks make.

www.ajc.com

 

[Ibeeballin]

Clemson is an interesting opponent this year. Notre Dame is their only good win, the others were against lower tier teams and the two worst teams in ACC play and were 5 pt and 14 pt wins. They played FSU very close, but lost, arguably on some dumb coaching decisions at the end. BC also played FSU pretty close, and we were beating them through 3 quarters until the wheels came off. Against common opponents Wake and Miami we scored more, while allowing 8 fewer pts to Miami and 4 more pts to Wake. Clemson is scoring 29 pts/gm overall, but only 21 pts/gm in P5 games. They allow 21.2 pts/gm, 22.8 pts/gm in P5 games. The closest D we've played is probably Miami, but Clemson's I think is a bit better. Klubnik hasn't been good at moving their offense, but he is 14/6 TD-Int. He's been sacked 17 times and averages basically 1 yard per rush.

We are scoring 33.2pts/gm and allowing 30.1pts/gm. We have been held to a season low of 23 points 3 times (OM, BC, and Miami), but I think all three of those teams have a better offense than Clemson too that helped keep their defenses off the field.

Like most all of our games this season, this game will likely come down to turnovers and winning that battle. Keeping the ball out of their defense's hands will be key. I expect this game ends up something like 28-27, and hey, why not for the good guys?

Great post. Shipley should be back from concussion protocol and, honestly, that’s a plus for GT. Mafah is the type of back that gives GT defense issues more than a Shipley. GT has held Shipley to 130yds on 31 carries in 2 years. Couldn’t do that in one game vs. BGSU

 

[78pike]

Neither UNC nor Miami have the defense talent Clemson has. This is up to our defense to actually contain Clemson's offense. If Clemson is smart, they aren't always smart. they should run run and run. We are one of the worst run defenses in Division 1. Then take a couple of deep shots when our safeties come up to help with run support.

On offense this will be a real test for the OL. The OL struggled against Miami's DL and Clemson has a more talented DL.

This will be a tough game for our guys!

I don't disagree with anything you said. However, they manhandled UNC's defensive line and those guys were highly rated recruits. And while UVA's line was not as highly rated they were a pretty good run defense over most of the season. So, what I hope we are seeing is our offensive line getting better and better as the season progresses. Also, much of our running offense can be attributed to the play calling of Buster. Hopefully, the way we stretch the field from sideline to sideline will help slow down their defense and allow us to run the ball more effectively. Obviously if they try to stack the box and take away the run, then we get the ball outside quickly to our playmakers and negate their pass rush as much as possible.

 

[Root4GT]

I don't disagree with anything you said. However, they manhandled UNC's defensive line and those guys were highly rated recruits. And while UVA's line was not as highly rated they were a pretty good run defense over most of the season. So, what I hope we are seeing is our offensive line getting better and better as the season progresses. Also, much of our running offense can be attributed to the play calling of Buster. Hopefully, the way we stretch the field from sideline to sideline will help slow down their defense and allow us to run the ball more effectively. Obviously if they try to stack the box and take away the run, then we get the ball outside quickly to our playmakers and negate their pass rush as much as possible.

This will be a real test for the OL. Hope they pass with flying colors!

 

[ibeattetris]

ESPN’s Connelly picks Clemson by nearly 16

I know Massey and Vegas both do, but does SP+ do any “recent games” weighting?

I think if you look at gt stats in a vacuum, this makes sense. I really don’t think we are the same team since bowling green (even including the gross bc loss).

I’m honestly a bit surprised the line is so high in sp+

 

[billga99]

I am not surprised by this spread. The last 3 losses have been by double digits. We have struggled to stop the run and Clemson has 2 good running backs. I think the only real way we keep this close is to score in the 30s and not sure we can do that against the Clemson defense. But with GT every week is a surprise so hopefully I am wrong.

 

[Johnson_buzz]

The more I think about this game the more I like our chances. I think the offense has found themselves and the defense is finally playing some ball.... not great ball but good enough defense for our offense to score a lot of points. I am super excited.

 

[slugboy]

How many people have watched a Clemson game this year?

Here’s their last game


Here’s the condensed version (25 minutes)


If I didn’t know anything else like the season records watching this game, and you told me one team was unranked, I’d say you were kidding. If you forced me to pick from the video, I’d say Clemson was the ranked team.

This does not look like a mediocre offensive line.

Here’s the Duke game they lost at the start of the season

 

[BuzzStone]

The more I think about this game the more I see a team that on paper should beat us. I feel the same way about the last 2 games we played as well.

 

[Eli]

We match up well with Clemson IMO. Early in the year I wouldn’t have said this. Klubnik is not mobile and is still struggling making the correct reads he only threw for 109 yards last week. I really like our chances with a shortened game and limited possessions

 

[Techster]

We match up well with Clemson IMO. Early in the year I wouldn’t have said this. Klubnik is not mobile and is still struggling making the correct reads he only threw for 109 yards last week. I really like our chances with a shortened game and limited possessions

Notre Dame has an elite defense (#8 DFEI) as well...so not too surprising that Klubnik didn't play all that well against Notre Dame given that the offense has struggled all year. Clemson's offense should be very good...at least on the ground under Garrett Riley. If Riley leaves after this season, it will be interesting to hear all the stories out of Clemson about what happened.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Maybe I’m a homer, but I am surprised by this spread. Clemson has only won one P5 game by double digits. We’ve won three out of our last four games, including wins against Miami and UNC. We have the same record as Clemson. I know it will get closer as the week goes on, but I think it would be a disaster if we can’t at least beat the spread. This will be a tight game. It will feel like the old Clemson GT rivalry(or I guess it isn’t one now lol) prior to Clemson’s recent dynasty.

I’ve watched a lot of Clemson games this year(neighbor who I watch games with is a Clemson grad) and they have looked just as mediocre as their record is all year. I get they have a lot of 5 star and 4 star players, but they aren’t playing like that and haven’t all year.

 

[stinger78]

I don't disagree with anything you said. However, they manhandled UNC's defensive line and those guys were highly rated recruits. And while UVA's line was not as highly rated they were a pretty good run defense over most of the season. So, what I hope we are seeing is our offensive line getting better and better as the season progresses. Also, much of our running offense can be attributed to the play calling of Buster. Hopefully, the way we stretch the field from sideline to sideline will help slow down their defense and allow us to run the ball more effectively. Obviously if they try to stack the box and take away the run, then we get the ball outside quickly to our playmakers and negate their pass rush as much as possible.

…and the presence of Dontae. He runs harder than the other two. Haynes is a shifty back capable of making a defender miss and going for big yardage Dontae is a hard hitter capable of breaking through for big yardage. They are a nice 1-2 punch.

 

[Johnson_buzz]

How many people have watched a Clemson game this year?

Here’s their last game


Here’s the condensed version (25 minutes)


If I didn’t know anything else like the season records watching this game, and you told me one team was unranked, I’d say you were kidding. If you forced me to pick from the video, I’d say Clemson was the ranked team.

This does not look like a mediocre offensive line.

Here’s the Duke game they lost at the start of the season

They seem to play to the the competition. The only games they have won convincingly are Syracuse and FL atlantic.
It is going to be a close game IMO, I think Tech has finally found our identity. (especially on offense)
here are some other games clemson has played.....
Clemson 20 - Maimi 28
Clemson 17 - NC State 24
Clemson 17 - Wake 12

I promise you out offense is the best they have played all year besides FLa State.
Our defense just needs to do enough, if wake and NC State can hold them to 17 we sure as hell can.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I know Massey and Vegas both do, but does SP+ do any “recent games” weighting?

I think if you look at gt stats in a vacuum, this makes sense. I really don’t think we are the same team since bowling green (even including the gross bc loss).

I’m honestly a bit surprised the line is so high in sp+

You guys are all looking at this the wrong way. The spread has nothing to do with how well the teams are playing right now. the spread is all about getting even action on either side of the line. It's about the perception of who the bettors think will win, and by how much.

 

[Eli]

Notre Dame has an elite defense (#8 DFEI) as well...so not too surprising that Klubnik didn't play all that well against Notre Dame given that the offense has struggled all year. Clemson's offense should be very good...at least on the ground under Garrett Riley. If Riley leaves after this season, it will be interesting to hear all the stories out of Clemson about what happened.

Klubnik is 10th in the ACC for QBR. We might lay a giant egg but I think we can beat Clemson by two scores or get beat by two scores. It’s how we’ve rolled this season

 

[slugboy]

The spread has nothing to do with how well the teams are playing right now. the spread is all about getting even action on either side of the line. It's about the perception of who the bettors think will win, and by how much.

He means the projected game spread from SP+. The model is kicking out a 15 point differential

SP+ has Clemson as the #23 team in the country, and us in the mid-60s, I believe. They’ve played a tough schedule, beaten up on weaker teams, and tripped against some of the better teams on their schedule. Their defense is top 10. Their offense is surprisingly efficient, and they have stud players. Aside from the Duke game, they just have enough brain farts to fall short in a big game or two.

If you aren’t a stats person, look at their games. They have talent, and they barely lost the games they lost.

They look like a top 15 team. They have a terrible record this year, though. It doesn’t add up

 

[ibeattetris]

You guys are all looking at this the wrong way. The spread has nothing to do with how well the teams are playing right now. the spread is all about getting even action on either side of the line. It's about the perception of who the bettors think will win, and by how much.

I wasn't talking about Vegas.

Even if I was, your take is certainly wrong. How well teams are currently playing isn't the *only* input, but without a doubt, Vegas is running computer models to help come up with their opening line and what they deem to be the "true line" is definitely a part of the equation.