Root, as pointed out the pre-season polls are so biased towards 2 conferences that it’s basically an impossibility for other conferences to have 2 top 10 teams at the end. Now with the top 12 mattering, it’s even less than a possibility. Your historical analysis is a result of the pre-season polls keeping some teams with 3 losses still ranked while pushing other teams with 1 loss out of the top 20. It’s all rigged. If they would rank FSU and Clemson pre-season #1 and #2 then the ACC would have great chance at 2 teams getting in. But since they will be ranked in the 16-20 range, there is no chance. UGA knows they are getting in the playoff because they‘ll be ranked 1 or 2 to begin and even with a couple losses they’ll be in the top 12. If they started at 16 (like FSU) and had 2 losses they wouldn’t (unless they get the auto).
The argument that “historically” the conference bias has kept 3-loss BIG / SEC teams ahead of 1-2 loss P5 made me take a quick look at CFP historic standings. I think it actually contradicts that assertion. A few 3 loss teams have snuck into the top ten but in those cases, the two loss teams behind them don’t support the bias you’re looking for…
2023 - no 3-loss team in top 10 and no 3-loss team over a 2-loss P5 team
2022- Two 3-loss teams snuck into the top 10 over 2-loss teams. Utah and KSt were ranked above 2-loss USC, Penn St and Washington. (Big Ten snub?)
2021 - no 3-loss top ten team
2020 - Florida and Iowa State snuck into top 10 with 3 losses in a screwed up partial season due to Covid. Not much to take from this year.
2019- Wisconsin snuck in at 10-3. The two loss teams behind them? Florida, Penn St, Utah, Bama and ND.
2018 - Washington and Florida were 3 loss teams. The only P5 team with 2 losses that fell behind them was Wash St.
2017 - 3 loss Auburn was #7. There were two loss USC, Penn St and Miami behind them at 8,9 and 10. The top ten “snubs” were 10-2 Washington at 11 and 12-0 UCF at 12.
2016 - three 3-loss teams at 8,9, and 10, led by Wisconsin ( Badgers seem to be the 3-loss darling of this analysis). Only P5 team with two losses behind them was WVU way back at 16.
2015 - no 3-loss top ten team
2014 - three loss teams in order #9 thru #18….. Ole Miss was #9 followed by Ariz, KSt, GT (biggest snub ever), uga, ucla, Ariz St, Mizzou, Clem, Wisconsin. No 2-loss P5 fell behind them.
I think you can make a solid argument that BIG / SEC teams have gotten the nod when losses are the SAME, but there isn’t much evidence to support 3 loss BIG/SEC teams being favored in the way you state. The good news for your theory is that if it does indeed start to happen, you can pretty clearly assert that they show bias NOW that top ten seeding really matters.