Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Five conference champions plus ND, one BIG, 4 SEC and one up for grabs.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Somebody correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there post season incentive to stay in the ACC now? Run through your seemingly weaker conference and now have a guaranteed shot at the 5+7?

Clemson can even go one loss against an undefeated FSU and they both might make it in? I understand being in the P2 makes more money but doesn’t this new model increase the odds for a title shot by a TON for ACC schools?

If I’m Clemson and I now have to play Ohio State, Michigan, PSU, Oregon, Washington, getting kicked out at some point- while some ACC team that stayed, let’s stay GEORGIA TECH, scrambles their way in, I’d be scratching my head and rear.

Under the assumption the SEC and BIG don’t just take it over. The BIG and SEC have a plan and they are working towards that goal. With ESPN being their partner they’ll either just take over this system or create their own. Either way, they have TV locked up. And in no scenario will they both expand and then let a NC State or GT slide into a playoff slot. That’s like believing an undefeated ACC team would get in over a Bama or a Texas.

 

[Root4GT]

Under the assumption the SEC and BIG don’t just take it over. The BIG and SEC have a plan and they are working towards that goal. With ESPN being their partner they’ll either just take over this system or create their own. Either way, they have TV locked up. And in no scenario will they both expand and then let a NC State or GT slide into a playoff slot. That’s like believing an undefeated ACC team would get in over a Bama or a Texas.

Just get ranked in the top 10. Go backwards and see how many times the ACC has had 2 top ten teams, 3 times to be exact. 2015 Clemson #1, UNC #8. /. 2017. Clemson #1, Miami #7 and 2020. ND #2 Clemson #3. Only the Clemson vs UNC game wasn’t a blowout.

The ACC needs several teams to be very good at the same time. That just does not happen.

 

[billga99]

Just get ranked in the top 10. Go backwards and see how many times the ACC has had 2 top ten teams, 3 times to be exact. 2015 Clemson #1, UNC #8. /. 2017. Clemson #1, Miami #7 and 2020. ND #2 Clemson #3. Only the Clemson vs UNC game wasn’t a blowout.

The ACC needs several teams to be very good at the same time. That just does not happen.

One of the big problems in the preseason polls always load up on the SEC and Big Ten. It is much easier to start up being ranked high and lose a game than to start out either unranked or low in the rankings and work your way up. Whether it is justified or not, it is the reality we are working with today.

 

[YJMD]

I’m not sure what you’re talking about. My point is that the loser of the CCG is at a disadvantage because they have to play an extra game. Notre Dame not having an opportunity to get a first round bye in the playoff is irrelevant, since they would have to win/play the same number of games as P4 champs with a first round bye anyway.

It's not the same. They could lose a conference championship game and still make the playoff. If they lose a first round playoff game, they're out.

Scenario A: 0-1 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship, earn bye
2. Lose conference championship, still make playoff

Scenario B: 2 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship, make playoff, possibility of getting a bye depending on other teams
2. Lose conference championship, out of playoffs

Scenario C: 3 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship against highly rated team, possibility of making playoffs that didn't exist before
2. Lose conference championship, out of playoffs anyway

In most cases I'd argue that they are better off playing a conference championship game, but it's debatable at least.

 

[stinger78]

One of the big problems in the preseason polls always load up on the SEC and Big Ten. It is much easier to start up being ranked high and lose a game than to start out either unranked or low in the rankings and work your way up. Whether it is justified or not, it is the reality we are working with today.

The presumption is that a 7-2 SEC team is better than any other 7-2 team. Sometimes that’s true, sometimes not. Whether or not that team gets in the CFP, it inflates the SOS.

 

[takethepoints]

The ACC needs several teams to be very good at the same time. That just does not happen.

Actually, that's the problem. The ACC has a lot of very good teams (or has in recent years) and they conspire to knock each other off. Like I said before, it's Every Man for Himself and God Against All, Werner Hertzog's great aphorism. Iow, the old ACC basketball formula applied to football. The problem isn't that the ACC doesn't have good teams. It's that, given the number of patsies in their conferences, the BIG and the SEC are more likely to have undefeated or one-loss teams. ACC teams, oth, have to be really, really good to achieve the same result.

This actually reinforces your point, however. It will be harder for the ACC to produce a playoff team besides it's league champ. However, I suspect that SOW is wrong; football fortunes are way to fickle to allow the kind of unrelenting dominance he foresees. Personally, I think the compromise was a justifiable one and might just work. But … we'll have to see.

 

[JacketOff]

It's not the same. They could lose a conference championship game and still make the playoff. If they lose a first round playoff game, they're out.

Scenario A: 0-1 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship, earn bye
2. Lose conference championship, still make playoff

Scenario B: 2 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship, make playoff, possibility of getting a bye depending on other teams
2. Lose conference championship, out of playoffs

Scenario C: 3 loss ND going into championship week
1. Win conference championship against highly rated team, possibility of making playoffs that didn't exist before
2. Lose conference championship, out of playoffs anyway

In most cases I'd argue that they are better off playing a conference championship game, but it's debatable at least.

I don’t think you get what I’m talking about. 12-0 Notre Dame is in the playoff without playing a CCG. 11-1 Notre Dame is more than likely in the playoff without playing a CCG. 10-2 Notre Dame will probably sneak into the playoff some years without playing a CCG. That means Notre Dame plays 12 games and gets into the playoff. They would be choosing to forego the 1st round bye in exchange for not playing a CCG.

Notre Dame as an independent would go 16-0 in a perfect season. 12 regular season wins, 4 playoff wins. Without running the risk of possibly playing a 17th game by losing in a CCG and missing out on the 1st round bye anyway.

A P4 conference champion would also go 16-0 in a perfect season. 12 regular season, 1 Conference championship game, 3 playoff wins. However, a P4 team that loses their CCG and still makes the playoff would have to play 17 games. 12 regular season, 1 conference championship, 4 playoff games. Notre Dame takes that possible 17th game away by not joining a conference

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Good chance a couple of three loss teams could sneak in if they begin the season ranked highly.

 

[stinger78]

Good chance a couple of three loss SECheat teams could sneak in if they begin the season ranked highly enough.

FTFY.

 

[Root4GT]

Actually, that's the problem. The ACC has a lot of very good teams (or has in recent years) and they conspire to knock each other off. Like I said before, it's Every Man for Himself and God Against All, Werner Hertzog's great aphorism. Iow, the old ACC basketball formula applied to football. The problem isn't that the ACC doesn't have good teams. It's that, given the number of patsies in their conferences, the BIG and the SEC are more likely to have undefeated or one-loss teams. ACC teams, oth, have to be really, really good to achieve the same result.

This actually reinforces your point, however. It will be harder for the ACC to produce a playoff team besides it's league champ. However, I suspect that SOW is wrong; football fortunes are way to fickle to allow the kind of unrelenting dominance he foresees. Personally, I think the compromise was a justifiable one and might just work. But … we'll have to see.

That is just BS. The ACC rarely has multiple very good teams. I listed the years for the times the ACC had 2 top 20 teams for the ACC Championship Game and one included ND who really isn’t an ACC team.

Clemson’s 6 year run was dominant in the ACC and there was no other exceptional ACC football team.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Under the assumption the SEC and BIG don’t just take it over. The BIG and SEC have a plan and they are working towards that goal. With ESPN being their partner they’ll either just take over this system or create their own. Either way, they have TV locked up. And in no scenario will they both expand and then let a NC State or GT slide into a playoff slot. That’s like believing an undefeated ACC team would get in over a Bama or a Texas.

Your comments are getting more and more nonsensical. If uga or Auburn had beaten Alabama, FSU would have been in over Bama and/or Texas. It was a rare scenario that got us to this egregious situation. You 1-beat drum is getting old. No problem with you having that opinion, but it seems the only time you comment on anything now is to piss on the ACC. It’s a tired narrative. It‘s time for you to enter the conversation with something different because we all know exactly what you think of Jim Phillips, the ACC, the ACC leadership, the SEC, the B1G, and how it’s about time it’s all in the open. You’re not sharing anything new. I can certainly ignore you, but historically you brought more to the table than this repeated opinion. I’m hoping that you’ll stop trolling and actually join in the conversation.

 

[takethepoints]

That is just BS. The ACC rarely has multiple very good teams. I listed the years for the times the ACC had 2 top 20 teams for the ACC Championship Game and one included ND who really isn’t an ACC team.

Clemson’s 6 year run was dominant in the ACC and there was no other exceptional ACC football team.

Indeed? Let's look at the inter-conference records, shall we?

ACC win-loss records against other P-5 conferences, 2023:
SEC: 7 - 5
BIG: 4-4
BIG12: 1- 4
PAC12: 0 - 1
Overall: 12 - 14
And, for reference sake, overalls against all out-of-conference opponents in 2023 for :
SEC: 12 - 13
BIG: 10- 12
BIG12: 10 - 9
PAC12: 10 - 6

Well, gosh. The ACC doesn't look half bad, now does it? Yet we had only one top 10 team: FSU. This suggests strongly that the ACC teams were beating each other up at the expense of their final records. Or do the numbers suggest something else that I'm missing?

And, of course, you are right about Clemson, but I might add that no team in the country, no matter what their conference, could have taken them on with assured success during that period.

 

[Vespidae]

Or do the numbers suggest something else that I'm missing?

I hate these comparisons. People jump on Wake Forest bearing Vandy as evidence of conference domination.

I would buy the comparison if you looked at the top of each conference and the record between those. Then, track it over time. These days, a coach has to build a team from scratch and whats going to help here is massive resources.

Finebaum made a comment yesterday that was interesting. Basically, Fox and ESPN want 32 teams, each with 80,000+ stadiums, huge fanbases that make for media people want to watch. That’s the new product and that’s what being marketed. And … you are either building programs to do that or you are not.

Nick Saban made an excellent quote recently:
"What we have now is not college football – not college football as we know it," he said. "You hear somebody use the word 'student-athlete.' That doesn't exist."

I read so many posts and shake my head. We are all complaining about yesterday’s college football. Me included. It’s gone.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

That is just BS. The ACC rarely has multiple very good teams. I listed the years for the times the ACC had 2 top 20 teams for the ACC Championship Game and one included ND who really isn’t an ACC team.

Clemson’s 6 year run was dominant in the ACC and there was no other exceptional ACC football team.

If your argument depends on rankings, however, it becomes a circular argument. Off and on for the last 60 years the SEC used the argument that “we beat up on each other and that’s why our teams have losses.” Was that true? Who knows. If SEC teams are consistently ranked high in preseason polls then beating each other constitutes the notorious “good loss.”

The ACC has never had that luxury.

 

[Root4GT]

Indeed? Let's look at the inter-conference records, shall we?

ACC win-loss records against other P-5 conferences, 2023:
SEC: 7 - 5
BIG: 4-4
BIG12: 1- 4
PAC12: 0 - 1
Overall: 12 - 14
And, for reference sake, overalls against all out-of-conference opponents in 2023 for :
SEC: 12 - 13
BIG: 10- 12
BIG12: 10 - 9
PAC12: 10 - 6

Well, gosh. The ACC doesn't look half bad, now does it? Yet we had only one top 10 team: FSU. This suggests strongly that the ACC teams were beating each other up at the expense of their final records. Or do the numbers suggest something else that I'm missing?

And, of course, you are right about Clemson, but I might add that no team in the country, no matter what their conference, could have taken them on with assured success during that period.

I does not in anyway suggest what you are saying. The top end of the B1G, SEC and PCA 12 were all better than the top end of the ACC. Louisville losing it's last regular season game to a very average Kentucky team eliminated any chance they had to make the CFP and also hurt FSU's chance. FSU was a top 5 team last year every other ACC team lost 4 games or more to teams like GT which was a very average team at best. The 3 best teams GT played all rolled GT. The ACC had a bunch of average teams, a couple good teams (Clemson, NCST, Louisville) and one elite team FSU.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Root, as pointed out the pre-season polls are so biased towards 2 conferences that it’s basically an impossibility for other conferences to have 2 top 10 teams at the end. Now with the top 12 mattering, it’s even less than a possibility. Your historical analysis is a result of the pre-season polls keeping some teams with 3 losses still ranked while pushing other teams with 1 loss out of the top 20. It’s all rigged. If they would rank FSU and Clemson pre-season #1 and #2 then the ACC would have great chance at 2 teams getting in. But since they will be ranked in the 16-20 range, there is no chance. UGA knows they are getting in the playoff because they‘ll be ranked 1 or 2 to begin and even with a couple losses they’ll be in the top 12. If they started at 16 (like FSU) and had 2 losses they wouldn’t (unless they get the auto).

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Your comments are getting more and more nonsensical. If uga or Auburn had beaten Alabama, FSU would have been in over Bama and/or Texas. It was a rare scenario that got us to this egregious situation. You 1-beat drum is getting old. No problem with you having that opinion, but it seems the only time you comment on anything now is to piss on the ACC. It’s a tired narrative. It‘s time for you to enter the conversation with something different because we all know exactly what you think of Jim Phillips, the ACC, the ACC leadership, the SEC, the B1G, and how it’s about time it’s all in the open. You’re not sharing anything new. I can certainly ignore you, but historically you brought more to the table than this repeated opinion. I’m hoping that you’ll stop trolling and actually join in the conversation.

Forensic, you do you and I’ll do me. To come on a message board and give someone a tongue lashing I’ll just never understand. This is all in fun. We aren’t solving anything here. I have never ignored nor will I ever ignore anyone because I love everyone’s opinions. None of us are wrong. We are 372 pages in. Are you telling me every post is “sharing something new”?

Listen, I hope you are right that the SEC and BIG and the CFP want equal treatment for all leagues and all teams. I also hope you are right that Jim Phillips has an incredible plan to make the ACC a premier conference that high level football and basketball players want to play in.

But, the simple facts are the ACC has not had a team in the past 2 post season tournaments in D1 football. The field has now tripled so let’s see what ACTUALLY happens instead of doing mental gymnastics to what could have happened.

 

[Vespidae]

Root, as pointed out the pre-season polls are so biased towards 2 conferences that it’s basically an impossibility for other conferences to have 2 top 10 teams at the end. Now with the top 12 mattering, it’s even less than a possibility. Your historical analysis is a result of the pre-season polls keeping some teams with 3 losses still ranked while pushing other teams with 1 loss out of the top 20. It’s all rigged. If they would rank FSU and Clemson pre-season #1 and #2 then the ACC would have great chance at 2 teams getting in. But since they will be ranked in the 16-20 range, there is no chance. UGA knows they are getting in the playoff because they‘ll be ranked 1 or 2 to begin and even with a couple losses they’ll be in the top 12. If they started at 16 (like FSU) and had 2 losses they wouldn’t (unless they get the auto).

It really doesn't matter.

Right now, the SEC and B1G control 50% of the entire viewership of CFB. Next year, it will be 60-70%+. The viewership is larger, more consistent, and ... more marketable by ESPN. This is the new CFB ...

	VWRS	%
SEC	48.18​	31.2%​
Pac 12	32.43​	21.0%​
Big 10	29.28​	19.0%​
ACC	24.67​	16.0%​
Big 12	19.83​	12.8%​

 

[stinger78]

Viewership is a proxy for money. Again, about 40% of the SECheat/B1G are between 1-2.5 million viewers - about where the great unwashed reside. This is about the elite being feted by sEcSPN so both can benefit greatly. No more, no less.

The 5+7 is the same. Does anyone even try to make a cogent argument that the new format will unevenly empower the SECheat and B1G?