CFP Discussion

[WreckinGT]

And this is why once the public sees this 12 team system being dominated by the SEC and BIG we’ll get another expansion into the 24 team range. This has how it always works. We all know about it now because we love this sport. But 97% of the population will wake up next year and see that out of 12 teams invited that 9 or 10 will be from 2 conferences. Sure, the SEC and BIG are much smarter than the other conferences which is why they set it up this way. When the playoff games prove wildly successful with TV ratings they’ll agree to expand which will get those 2 conferences more teams in but will also allow other schools normally left out to get in on those years they get to 9 wins (think the GT’s, Wake’s, Arizona, BYU, etc).

And, of course, my premise is that once you get a real playoff, that upsets will prove what a farce we’ve been living under for decades. For decades, the Bama’s, UGA’s, and Oklahoma’s have played 3 game seasons to prepare for and focus on. Once you make Kirby plan for more than just Florida, Auburn, and the SECCG you’ll see them lose more games. And injuries will play a huge part with the addition of 4-5 more games. Just like we see in every other sport with a legit playoff system, you’ll see the fake dynasties built on invitations disappear. Sure, Bama and UGA will be in the mix every year but they won’t win it at nearly the same pace.

We will just get a 24 team playoff with 10 teams from the SEC and 10 teams from the Big 10. Sounds exciting doesn't it?

 

[orientalnc]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Im just waiting for that Butler type of team. Beat the heavy weights (who cant offer any type of excuse) and make it to the championship.

Yeah, I’m not saying I think a South Alabama could win the tourney, but just having the big boys play those game will create situations that the big boys never had to deal with when they were sheltered. I keep using the 2014 GT team since that is our team. If we had a 24 team playoff with no byes there wasn’t a team out there who would have wanted to play us with 4 practice days to prepare. Or even next year. We could go 9-3 with close losses to FSU, Clemson, and UGA and would be sitting at home when a 9-3 Ole Miss is in. The good news is that greed and TV money will eventually give us a true playoff system. This 12 teamer is as much a joke as having journalists or a computer pick the champ. It’s just too bad that the ACC and the other conferences didn’t have the balls to ensure each conference gets 2 teams in a 12 teamer. Once again, the SEC and BIG rolled them in the boardroom.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

Of course Sankey will push back because he should for his conference. The others simply need to stand up to him for once and not cave. But we know they will.

 

[roadkill]

And this is why once the public sees this 12 team system being dominated by the SEC and BIG we’ll get another expansion into the 24 team range. This has how it always works. We all know about it now because we love this sport. But 97% of the population will wake up next year and see that out of 12 teams invited that 9 or 10 will be from 2 conferences. Sure, the SEC and BIG are much smarter than the other conferences which is why they set it up this way. When the playoff games prove wildly successful with TV ratings they’ll agree to expand which will get those 2 conferences more teams in but will also allow other schools normally left out to get in on those years they get to 9 wins (think the GT’s, Wake’s, Arizona, BYU, etc).

And, of course, my premise is that once you get a real playoff, that upsets will prove what a farce we’ve been living under for decades. For decades, the Bama’s, UGA’s, and Oklahoma’s have played 3 game seasons to prepare for and focus on. Once you make Kirby plan for more than just Florida, Auburn, and the SECCG you’ll see them lose more games. And injuries will play a huge part with the addition of 4-5 more games. Just like we see in every other sport with a legit playoff system, you’ll see the fake dynasties built on invitations disappear. Sure, Bama and UGA will be in the mix every year but they won’t win it at nearly the same pace.

I think the playoff will expand again, but the driver will be media viewership/revenue rather than disapproval from fans of lower-ranked conferences.

The CFP exists as a for-profit venture outside of the NCAA’s purview, so they have no incentive to do what’s “fair” to all conferences and/or S-As. So far, the CFP has produced most of the highest-viewed matchups ever seen. If the 12-team model continues to grow the audience, there’s no reason to stop at 12. If fans begin to tire of an increased number of blow-out games, we might see the expansion curtailed at some point.

 

[WreckinGT]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

There is literally no reason for the ACC or Big 12 to accept a 5+7 model with unlimited conference bids. It's not beneficial to them in any way. What is the risk in rejecting it? That the SEC and Big 10 will just do their own thing? Yeah, bust of luck with that. This may be the last time these conferences have any leverage on this. Cave now and it's basically a death sentence for your conference going forward.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I think the playoff will expand again, but the driver will be media viewership/revenue rather than disapproval from fans of lower-ranked conferences.

The CFP exists as a for-profit venture outside of the NCAA’s purview, so they have no incentive to do what’s “fair” to all conferences and/or S-As. So far, the CFP has produced most of the highest-viewed matchups ever seen. If the 12-team model continues to grow the audience, there’s no reason to stop at 12. If fans begin to tire of an increased number of blow-out games, we might see the expansion curtailed at some point.

I totally agree and have stated the above many times. Greed is what will finally bring fairness. But, giving fanbases HOPE will push those numbers up and will put pressure to approve expansion. And I don’t think you’ll see nearly as many blowouts because it won’t be the usual in season crap we’ve gotten use to where lower level teams who stink are paid millions to be the sacrificial lambs for a Saturday in September. Teams getting into a playoff will have a pulse. And if a team does get up by 20plus they better be pulling starters before injuries jump up.

 

[RonJohn]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

I could see a split where there is a Big10/SEC playoff and a rest of the FBS playoff. Some would say that would guarantee huge ratings for the Big10/SEC and very low ratings for the rest of FBS. However, the SEC is regional. The Big10 is becoming national, but isn't quite there yet. The reason that the NFL gets such great ratings is that nationwide there are teams that have an opportunity to win the championship at the beginning of the season. Most of the country has teams that have an opportunity to win the championship halfway or more through the season. The CFP has been set up, and is continuing to be a system in which only a select few teams from the Southeast and the Midwest actually have any opportunity of winning. That has been the case, but hasn't been overtly obvious. It is now obvious and if the expanded playoff is Big10/SEC plus three other teams, it will be even more obvious. That isn't a recipe to gain a nationwide audience.

 

[1979jacket]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

Thanks for posting this. Very Interesting. I'm sure Sankey won't agree to those changes given his original position was just take the best 12 teams regardless of conference affiliation. The one thing that the ACC has as an advantage is, as it stands now 6 conference champions (2 G5) will make the field in 2024 and 2025 and I'm sure Sankey doesn't like that. It's very interesting to me that before Sankey raided the Big12 behind the Big12's back while discussing the 12 team playoffs, all the conferences were getting along with goodwill. Appears now that goodwill is gone.

The proposals of the SEC/Big12 (9 possible teams together) are way different than the ACC proposals (7/6 possible teams). Best compromise might be that at least 3 conferences must have multiple teams selected. This would essentailly give one of the ACC/Big12/G5 with another team.

 

[stinger78]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

If someone is surprised at all by this, it indicates either a) you haven’t been paying attention, or b) you have drunk deeply of the SECheat Koolaid.

 

[Root4GT]

The wording is "the six highest ranked conference champions". Before the demise of the PAC12, everyone assumed this would be the P5 champions plus the highest ranked G5 champion, but it never specified that the P5 champions were guaranteed a spot. Only once in the last decade had two G5 champions ranked higher than a P5 champion; both Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina were ranked higher than the PAC12 champion in 2020.

Here's an article from a month ago about changing the format from 6+6 to 5+7: https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-cfp-leaders-moving-closer-to-adjusting-12-team-playoff-format-230208506.html#:~:text=The 5+7 format would,presidents — to make the change.

A change to a 5+7 model maintains four spots for what is now the Power Four conference champions — though they are not guaranteed — and one bid for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Automatic qualifying spots are not designated for a specific conference but are earned based on rankings. It would be highly unusual for a power league’s champion to be left out of a 12-team field using a 5+7 format.​

In addition, there will be language added that a conference must consist of at least 8 teams to qualify for one of the automatic conference champion spots, so the PAC2 champion wouldn't qualify.

If this is adopted I see the playoff normally consisting of 1 Big12, 1 ACC, 1 G5, 5 SEC, and 4 B1G teams. About once every 3-4 years, Notre Dame or a second Big 12 or ACC team will get in.

Again this is speculation on who would get in. The highest ranked G5 Conference champions are Liberty (23) and SMU (24). Only Liberty would get in using next year's CFP format which was the original point of the discussion. Had Louisville beaten Kentucky, a mid pack ACC team they would be a top 12 team and have a shot to be in the Playoffs.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

The wording is "the six highest ranked conference champions". Before the demise of the PAC12, everyone assumed this would be the P5 champions plus the highest ranked G5 champion, but it never specified that the P5 champions were guaranteed a spot. Only once in the last decade had two G5 champions ranked higher than a P5 champion; both Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina were ranked higher than the PAC12 champion in 2020.

Here's an article from a month ago about changing the format from 6+6 to 5+7: https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-cfp-leaders-moving-closer-to-adjusting-12-team-playoff-format-230208506.html#:~:text=The 5+7 format would,presidents — to make the change.

A change to a 5+7 model maintains four spots for what is now the Power Four conference champions — though they are not guaranteed — and one bid for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Automatic qualifying spots are not designated for a specific conference but are earned based on rankings. It would be highly unusual for a power league’s champion to be left out of a 12-team field using a 5+7 format.​

In addition, there will be language added that a conference must consist of at least 8 teams to qualify for one of the automatic conference champion spots, so the PAC2 champion wouldn't qualify.

If this is adopted I see the playoff normally consisting of 1 Big12, 1 ACC, 1 G5, 5 SEC, and 4 B1G teams. About once every 3-4 years, Notre Dame or a second Big 12 or ACC team will get in.

ND, Ugag, Bama, OhioSt, Michigan, and LSU will probably have semi permanent spots. The rest will be playing for the other 6.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

From my UNC source:

The ACC is VERY unhappy with the CFP right now and favors a radical change in the selection model. The SEC and B1G want to change to the 5+7 model. Right now that looks like it will pass if other changes are part of the new model. The SEC and B1G want no limits on the number of teams from each conference. The B12 and ACC see that as an almost guarantee there will be only one of their members in the CFP while as many as 4 or 5 members of the SEC and B1G will be selected.

According to my UNC connected neighbor, the ACC is proposing two models. One is that the P4 conferences have two spots each. The rest will be the highest ranking G5 champ and 3 highest ranking at large teams. The other is that in the 5+7 model no conference can have more than three teams selected. There is already pushback from Sankey on both proposed changes.

Looks like it will be about 30 votes versus the rest of us.

 

[RonJohn]

Had Louisville beaten Kentucky, a mid pack ACC team they would be a top 12 team and have a shot to be in the Playoffs.

That assumes that the rankings are purely analytical and not influenced by outside lobbying. If there are five or six teams vying for the final 2-3 spots, the SEC will lobby very hard to have all of those final spots to be SEC teams. This year, it wouldn't have really mattered. If playoff spots were on the line would Louisville had jumped over LSU? Oklahoma? Ole Miss? Mizz?

The criteria is only whatever it takes to justify the decision you want to make. It is easy to come up with reasons why an 11-2 Louisville is better than any of those teams. It is also easy to come up with reasons that an 11-2 Louisville is not better than those teams. The committee has changed the criteria year to year, and even week to week so they can justify whatever they say. It is extremely obvious that without any hard criteria, bias will always be involved. What is important this year will not be important next year. Teams should be able to understand what it takes to get into the playoffs. Teams currently can do everything next year that the committee says is important this year, only to find out that nothing they accomplished is important next year.

 

[stech81]

As long as ESPN has anything to say there will always be 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoffs. Everyone knows a 7-5 SEC team will be picked over an 10-2 ACC or big 12 team

 

[roadkill]

One possibly unforeseen downside to a conference getting multiple teams in the CFP is too many repeat games. Let's assume that both conference championship teams get in from the SEC and B1G. There are decent odds that they could have played each other in the regular season, and again in their Conf. Championship (its happened before). So now there is a good chance we see teams playing for the CFP that have already played each other twice before. That could result in some serious fan apathy outside of their respective fanbases. Who wants to see Bama-uga for the third time in a season?

 

[RonJohn]

One possibly unforeseen downside to a conference getting multiple teams in the CFP is too many repeat games. Let's assume that both conference championship teams get in from the SEC and B1G. There are decent odds that they could have played each other in the regular season, and again in their Conf. Championship (its happened before). So now there is a good chance we see teams playing for the CFP that have already played each other twice before. That could result in some serious fan apathy outside of their respective fanbases. Who wants to see Bama-uga for the third time in a season?

That goes in line with what I have been saying. The CFP says that every single FBS team has an equal opportunity to make the playoffs, based on performance. It has been obvious to me that this statement is false. It is becoming obvious to the general public that the statement is false. The SEC crowd just keeps shouting that the SEC is simply better, except this year there are no metrics that indicate the SEC is better. OOC record? No. Are people going to be interested in a Big10/SEC only playoff system if their team/region has zero opportunity to be involved? I think there is an opportunity for a big spike in revenue, but it isn't sustainable.

 

[billga99]

As long as ESPN has anything to say there will always be 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoffs. Everyone knows a 7-5 SEC team will be picked over an 10-2 ACC or big 12 team

With the 12 team playoff, it is not guaranteed that ESPN will get all of the playoff games. Likely it will be a multiple network play which will likely provide more money for TV rights. It would be beneficial to the ACC and Big 12 if more networks than just ESPN and Fox got into this TV show since they would want to stack the deck to the SEC and Big Ten. I do think this is the only chance that the ACC, Big 12 and Group 5 can bow their necks and make sure there is more even representation in the 12 team format. I am sure the SEC and Big Ten will threaten to breakoff to try to get their way.

 

[orientalnc]

With the 12 team playoff, it is not guaranteed that ESPN will get all of the playoff games. Likely it will be a multiple network play which will likely provide more money for TV rights. It would be beneficial to the ACC and Big 12 if more networks than just ESPN and Fox got into this TV show since they would want to stack the deck to the SEC and Big Ten. I do think this is the only chance that the ACC, Big 12 and Group 5 can bow their necks and make sure there is more even representation in the 12 team format. I am sure the SEC and Big Ten will threaten to breakoff to try to get their way.

I do not think the SEC or B1G would "break off" to do their own thing. While it might be fun for their fans to rave on about being the best, the practical side of not having a broad spectrum of competing teams would lesson the attractiveness of their endeavor. And, there is also the danger that the other conferences would say to those two conferences, "Enjoy having your own March Madness as well. And, your own women's championship events."

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

I do not think the SEC or B1G would "break off" to do their own thing. While it might be fun for their fans to rave on about being the best, the practical side of not having a broad spectrum of competing teams would lesson the attractiveness of their endeavor. And, there is also the danger that the other conferences would say to those two conferences, "Enjoy having your own March Madness as well. And, your own women's championship events."

I'll believe it when I see it but I would love for this to happen