CFP Discussion

[leatherneckjacket]

I disagree. A full strength, undefeated FSU gets in no matter what. Whether red herring or fact, Travis' injury cost them the spot. It's unfortunate.

You are confusing spin with reality. No way the SEC gets left out no matter if Travis is injured or not. Not going to convince me otherwise, so don't bother.

 

[GoldZ]

I normally hate listening to Stephen A Smith, but he brought up an interesting point as well. If Prime Time was the coach at FSU do you think they still get left out?

In todays world...no way. And this is not a compliment to todays world.

 

[stinger78]

Yeah, I’m getting especially tired of references to TCU. If that is seriously a reason for keeping FSU out then somebody has not watched FSU’s defense this year. They might lose but they would never get blown out. By anybody. Take that to the bank.

That's a very good bet right there. It could theoretically happen, but based on their performance this season the probability of it is so low as to be almost -0-.

 

[WreckinGT]

Yep. The played a 9-3 LSU team. After that, they played a collective schedule of 63-76.

Some of which had decent offenses. FSU is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. That have an elite defense. There is no real argument against that. In the last two games they have given up -38 yards in the 4th quarter, but yeah they suck. Lol.

 

[stinger78]

Some of which had decent offenses. FSU is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. That have an elite defense. There is no real argument against that. In the last two games they have given up -38 yards in the 4th quarter, but yeah they suck. Lol.

Not only do they suck, they might actually get blown out like TCU did last year. That argument is one of the more facile that I've heard in all this. It's tantamount to: "They are using their 2nd string QB so their elite defense (truly in this case, not a TFG-ism) will truly suck."

 

[Vespidae]

Some of which had decent offenses. FSU is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. That have an elite defense. There is no real argument against that. In the last two games they have given up -38 yards in the 4th quarter, but yeah they suck. Lol.

I didn't say they sucked. I said they played a very weak schedule in comparison to others.

 

[GTrob21]

It's amazing to watch some of these "ACC" fans try to defend this garbage. There is only one defensible position when it comes to the committee's decision. And it's that they were going to have an SEC team in the top four no matter what. If UGA had won, then it would have been easy. UGA, Mich, Wash, and FSU would have been number 4. They could have protected the illusion that the regular season matters. They could keep the fan that still believed in amateurism, and that there was a purity to college sports that the NFL has lost. The marketing that had made college football great, was that people were playing for something greater than money. That there was this greater good that football embodied. These young men who played for the love of the game were battling it out for the pride of their schools. Most of us knew that was false, but it died en mass on December 3rd.

When Alabama won, they had to show their bias and figure out a way to get the SEC champ into the playoffs. All that talk that football is a game about winning, about how great teams find a way to win, about how defense wins championships. That is all a bunch of bull****. It's that simple. College football is about who makes the cable companies the most money, and who has the most fans. It's about selling an inferior product to an ever-increasing and fed-up consumer by trying to keep it wrapped in the packet that they originally sold it in. College football is a cheap knockoff of the NFL now. Why watch college football? It is not about who is the best, its not about school pride, its about who can make the most money for ESPN.

The best quote I have heard so far, is "Remember December 3rd, 2023, it is the day college football became figure skating."

Congrats SEC, you are the male equivalent of Tonya Harding.

 

[MWBATL]

The most likely blowout win is going to be FSU over UGa.

Second most likely will be Michigan over Bama.

CFP Committee sucks.

 

[Vespidae]

Not only do they suck, they might actually get blown out like TCU did last year. That argument is one of the more facile that I've heard in all this. It's tantamount to: "They are using their 2nd string QB so their elite defense (truly in this case, not a TFG-ism) will truly suck."

That's NOT what I have heard. They did very well with Travis playing a somewhat weak schedule. And with him out, how would they do playing against much stronger teams? That's the debate.

That's why it will be interesting to see how they do against UGAg. If they beat them, the debate rages. If the Dawgs stomp them ... maybe it changes. I don't know.

 

[cpf2001]

Folks bringing up TCU seem to have forgotten that TCU won a game??

But as long as this thread is “they got left out cause of the injury” vs “they would’ve gotten left out anyway cause SEC bias” it’s gonna go forever cause folks literally aren’t even having the same discussion. Wheeee around we go

 

[roadkill]

That chart shows that Bowling Green is slightly better than Boston College… interesting. I was hoping for that game in the ‘which loss should we complain more about’ bowl.

In another thread's discussion about our "worst loss, I presented lots of data showing BG was a better team than BC. But some would argue otherwise regardless of what all sorts of data says.

 

[Towaliga]

That's NOT what I have heard. They did very well with Travis playing a somewhat weak schedule. And with him out, how would they do playing against much stronger teams? That's the debate.

That's why it will be interesting to see how they do against UGAg. If they beat them, the debate rages. If the Dawgs stomp them ... maybe it changes. I don't know.

The only thing I disagree with is that if FSU beats UGAg, it will be spun that ga didn’t want to be there.

 

[Techster]

 

[stinger78]

That's NOT what I have heard. They did very well with Travis playing a somewhat weak schedule. And with him out, how would they do playing against much stronger teams? That's the debate.

That's why it will be interesting to see how they do against UGAg. If they beat them, the debate rages. If the Dawgs stomp them ... maybe it changes. I don't know.

What's the line on UGAg over FSU? They might beat FSU, maybe even by 10-14 points, but they're not blowing them out. It is a virtual impossibility that this FSU D will yield a blowout. They are one of the most complete D's I've seen in a long time. We like to talk about Iowa's D this year. They yielded and average of 275 total yards in 2023. FSU's D yielded an average of 306. That's 31 YPG more.

 

[UgaBlows]

The most likely blowout win is going to be FSU over UGa.

Second most likely will be Michigan over Bama.

CFP Committee sucks.

Michigan ain’t beating Bama

 

[roadkill]

This is what I thought would happen.

Yes. Quoted from the CFP website (emphasis mine):
"...when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree...The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:

1. Conference championships won,
2. Strength of schedule,
3. Head‐to‐head competition,
4. Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
5. Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

Comparing FSU to Bama:

1. Both won their conference
2. Bama had a tougher schedule
3. They didn't play each other
4. They both beat LSU...FSU by 3 scores, Bama by 2, but margin doesn't count
5. FSU's starting QB is out, Bama's is not.

Based on this criteria, it's Bama over FSU if there is a case to be made that both teams have"similar records". The main issue here is 13-0 vs. 12-1. In any case, if Bama is in, Texas must be in, leaving out uga.

And for those saying FSU had a better resume than Bama...
The following Colley final ranking excerpt is not intended to justify the committee’s selections for the CFP, although it could. I’m simply trying to show how a ranking that doesn‘t use any other polls or preseason preloads came up with the best teams based strictly on their resumes – the quality of their wins and losses. It does not use margin of victory (no “style points”), so FSU scoring 16 points vs Louisville doesn’t factor in except a win for FSU against a top-25. It’s not predictive and doesn’t know that Jordan Travis can’t play.

I don’t expect it to settle all arguments over whether FSU or Bama had the best wins – but here is the data:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS Rank	Top 25 Wins	Top 50 Wins	Best game
1.	Washington	1.01404​	13-0	0.593124: 11	3	7	W: #8 Oregon
2.	Michigan	0.989841​	13-0	0.565201: 32	3	5	W: #6 Ohio St
3.	Texas	0.955721​	12-1	0.602755: 6	2	6	W: #4 Alabama
4.	Alabama	0.954965​	12-1	0.601883: 7	3	6	W: #7 Georgia
5.	Florida St	0.949564​	13-0	0.518727: 69	2	5	W: #15 LSU
6.	Ohio St	0.915625​	11-1	0.568229: 30	2	4	W: #10 Penn St
7.	Georgia	0.904889​	12-1	0.544103: 49	2	4	W: #13 Mississippi
8.	Oregon	0.862097​	11-2	0.571650: 26	0	3	W: #26 Utah
9.	Oklahoma	0.850109​	10-2	0.575127: 20	2	4	W: #3 Texas
10.	Penn St	0.847435​	10-2	0.572007: 25	1	4	W: #16 Iowa

 

[yeti92]

Don't forget to cancel any ESPN subscriptions, I cancelled mine yesterday. They will not see another cent from me ever again.

 

[jojatk]

Are we really arguing over why Alabama got in over FSU? Others have said this and I agree that the prospect of a Michigan-Alabama game on TV is WAY more likely to have high viewership than Michigan-FSU. Or at least that's what I think the CFP committee thinks. And watching the ACC championship game when FSU was on offense it was nearly UNwatchable. When FSU was on defense, however, it was very exciting if you like tremendous defense, and I do. I believe the result they wanted given the way the championship games played out was Michigan-Bama and then they backed into whatever reasons they wanted given the factors they claim they weigh in determining who should be in the CFP. I'm sure they had their ducks in a row as to what actual information they could use to justify the selection.

You can build justification for a few teams and have accurate points to support their inclusion in the final four teams. In the end it's a beauty contest. Alabama was seen as the more desirable team in the final four over FSU.

 

[stinger78]

This is what I thought would happen.


And for those saying FSU had a better resume than Bama...
The following Colley final ranking excerpt is not intended to justify the committee’s selections for the CFP, although it could. I’m simply trying to show how a ranking that doesn‘t use any other polls or preseason preloads came up with the best teams based strictly on their resumes – the quality of their wins and losses. It does not use margin of victory (no “style points”), so FSU scoring 16 points vs Louisville doesn’t factor in except a win for FSU against a top-25. It’s not predictive and doesn’t know that Jordan Travis can’t play.

I don’t expect it to settle all arguments over whether FSU or Bama had the best wins – but here is the data:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS Rank	Top 25 Wins	Top 50 Wins	Best game
1.	Washington	1.01404​	13-0	0.593124: 11	3	7	W: #8 Oregon
2.	Michigan	0.989841​	13-0	0.565201: 32	3	5	W: #6 Ohio St
3.	Texas	0.955721​	12-1	0.602755: 6	2	6	W: #4 Alabama
4.	Alabama	0.954965​	12-1	0.601883: 7	3	6	W: #7 Georgia
5.	Florida St	0.949564​	13-0	0.518727: 69	2	5	W: #15 LSU
6.	Ohio St	0.915625​	11-1	0.568229: 30	2	4	W: #10 Penn St
7.	Georgia	0.904889​	12-1	0.544103: 49	2	4	W: #13 Mississippi
8.	Oregon	0.862097​	11-2	0.571650: 26	0	3	W: #26 Utah
9.	Oklahoma	0.850109​	10-2	0.575127: 20	2	4	W: #3 Texas
10.	Penn St	0.847435​	10-2	0.572007: 25	1	4	W: #16 Iowa

You're right, it doesn't settle the thing at all, because there is a whopping 0.004 difference between Alabama's rating (0.954) and FSU's rating (0.950). Both of those simplify to 0.95. Texas is 0.96, Michigan is 0.99, and Washington is 1.01. There is no statistically significant difference between Alabama and FSU in that list. You have to then consider that FSU completed an undefeated season w/o it's starting QB. IMPO, you have to give the edge to FSU.

 

[Towaliga]

A moderator edited my post that listed Boo Corrigans office phone number, deleting the numbers. I’m not sure why, because both his phone number and email address are listed on the NCSU AD website and anyone who wants to communicate with Boo can look them up. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out numerous FSU fans have done just that.

Having said that, please don’t put me in timeout.