CFP Discussion

[bobongo]

I agree with you, but there is a logical argument that uga gets in no matter what they do in the SECCG. They pass the eyeball test as the best team in the country and their D has smothered everyone thus far.

But, I do not think the CFP committee can leave an undefeated team ranked #2 or #3 or the B1G champion or the SEC champion out of the playoff. And, if Oregon is the PAC-12 champ with one loss it just complicates matters. Winning your conference championship has to have meaning at some point.

The CFP rankings come out next week. That should add some clarity to the debate.

I really wish Cincy had beaten Georgia last year. Had they done so, there would be much more pressure to put them in ahead of Georgia if it comes down to those two. Still, they came close to winning, and if they're unbeaten...

Hoping for a big upset in Jacksonville this weekend.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Here's a scenario to ponder: Bama loses to Auburn or somebody, and with two losses beats Georgia in the SEC title game. Does a two loss Alabama get into the playoffs? If not, how can Georgia get in if they lost to them? I can't see a two loss 'Bama getting in, and it would be weird if Georgia got in after losing to them.

Yeah, this is why the formula for CFP needs changing. Either conference championships mean something or they don’t. If they don’t mean anything then we are still stuck having sports writers and PR firms choose our champions.

With a four team playoff it should be the four highest ranked conference champions. Not ideal but the current approach doesn’t work if the wrong set of variables rears its ugly head.

Better would be to expand number of teams and make all the conference championships the play-in round. Then the only role the pundits would have would be seeding, but results would still be settled on the field.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

If Wake goes undefeated (they won’t) they will have done so against one of the weakest schedules in college football, and without a doubt the weakest P5 schedule. Their best win so far is against Virginia who you already said wasn’t any good, and by the end of the regular season their best win would be Virginia (no good apparently), Clemson (clearly is no good), UNC (so bad we beat them), or NC State just lost to a bad Miami team. Wake currently has the 103rd ranked schedule in the country, and by the end of the year that probably won’t change much. Cincinnati will have a much more respectable resume than Wake, at least they beat a pretty good Notre Dame team on the road.

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t talk about how bad the ACC is and then complain when the ACC doesn’t get respect. Either the ACC is solid and worthy of more respect than it currently gets, or it’s really bad and reaps what it sows.

I’m not trying to have it both ways. The ACC sucks in football in 2021. Other years we’ve been very good. But none of that matters. My point is that every other conference has their in pocket media types pushing their teams every Saturday. That is why there is media discussion about Oregon Winning the PAC or an undefeated Oklahoma winning the 12, etc. and getting in. I have not heard 1 media type even mention “what if Wake runs the table”? It’s because the ACC has created over decades a persona that they just don’t care about their teams and everyone knows they can roll us. I don’t understand why more of you GT fans don’t get pissed about it because that could easily be us. I bet you’d care then. You do realize we were 1 coaches vote being flipped from 1990 not happening. 1. The ACC gave us no help and twisted no arms. Meanwhile Buffalo had their conference and every media outlet west of the Mississippi pimping for them.

Let me ask this - is there any poster here who believes in the College World Series that if the Covid issue had happened to Miss State or Vanderbilt that the SEC would have just rolled over like the ACC did? I guarantee the SEC would have gone nuts in the media and probably would have had both their teams threaten to sit. In fact it was SEC shenanigans that caused the NC State issue.

Im just tired of our conference leaders doing nothing. If the ACC Champ goes undefeated they should get every shot like every other conference. But they won’t. And that’s why I will love seeing the playoffs expand way beyond 12 because I know it’s the only way for “outsiders” to get a chance.

 

[orientalnc]

Here is the 538 prediction model. You can click on several scenarios. Interesting that Michigan, Cincy, and Oklahoma winning out while Bama wins the SEC makes uga an improbable CFP team.

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[BuzzStone]

It seems pretty apparent that UGA should win it all, I actually think that will be good for us as GT fans. Right now the only real thing we have to hang our hat on is that UGA hasn't won in 40 years. I think once they win it will allow us to focus on us and turn our program around

 

[JacketOff]

I’m not trying to have it both ways. The ACC sucks in football in 2021. Other years we’ve been very good. But none of that matters. My point is that every other conference has their in pocket media types pushing their teams every Saturday. That is why there is media discussion about Oregon Winning the PAC or an undefeated Oklahoma winning the 12, etc. and getting in. I have not heard 1 media type even mention “what if Wake runs the table”? It’s because the ACC has created over decades a persona that they just don’t care about their teams and everyone knows they can roll us. I don’t understand why more of you GT fans don’t get pissed about it because that could easily be us. I bet you’d care then. You do realize we were 1 coaches vote being flipped from 1990 not happening. 1. The ACC gave us no help and twisted no arms. Meanwhile Buffalo had their conference and every media outlet west of the Mississippi pimping for them.

Let me ask this - is there any poster here who believes in the College World Series that if the Covid issue had happened to Miss State or Vanderbilt that the SEC would have just rolled over like the ACC did? I guarantee the SEC would have gone nuts in the media and probably would have had both their teams threaten to sit. In fact it was SEC shenanigans that caused the NC State issue.

Im just tired of our conference leaders doing nothing. If the ACC Champ goes undefeated they should get every shot like every other conference. But they won’t. And that’s why I will love seeing the playoffs expand way beyond 12 because I know it’s the only way for “outsiders” to get a chance.

I’m not sure what any of this has to do with the issue at hand. You always want to talk about conference leadership, and you’re always down on your knees for the SEC’s leaders. It’s weird.

Oh by the way, the SEC nor the ACC had anything to do with NC State’s Covid issue at the CWS. It was an NCAA decision based on their rules. There’s nothing any conference could’ve done about it. But since you keep bringing it up, did you forget that Nick Saban wasn’t able to coach, be on the sidelines, or interact with the team at all during the Iron Bowl? Why didn’t the SEC stand up for their dear leader? After all, he pretty much solely responsible for the SEC hype and money machine that exists today. He’s won 7 of the 11 national championships in the SEC since 2003. I guess that still wasn’t enough for the poor old SEC to keep him on the sidelines for the Iron Bowl

 

[Jmonty71]

Cincy should be praying for a Gator upset over the Dwags... Here's why... Imagine if UGag does go undefeated. The play Bama in the SEC championship.... Say Bama wins... That means 2 SEC schools going to the playoffs. I think a 1 loss BIG-10 champ gets a nod... and last spot OK or Oregon... If both are 1 loss... Cincy's SoS isn't exactly eye opening.. So, like I said... Cincy should be rooting for the Gators big time.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Cincy should be praying for a Gator upset over the Dwags... Here's why... Imagine if UGag does go undefeated. The play Bama in the SEC championship.... Say Bama wins... That means 2 SEC schools going to the playoffs. I think a 1 loss BIG-10 champ gets a nod... and last spot OK or Oregon... If both are 1 loss... Cincy's SoS isn't exactly eye opening.. So, like I said... Cincy should be rooting for the Gators big time.

It's all going to depend on how well they (the infamous "they") are able to manipulate the CFP polls next week. If "they" can push Cincinnati far enough down, that could happen. However, with Cinn. ranked #2 currently in the polls, that will be tough. If uga loses to Bama and Cincy wins out, they'll be ranked #1 in the Coaches' Poll. It'll be really hard to push the #1 ranked team (by the "coaches") out of the Top4. A 1-loss B1G champion, a 1-loss B12 champion (or undefeated), and a 1-loss SEC champion will go in ahead of uga EVERY TIME. So, if Cincy wins out, there will be a ton of pressure to include them (and a bunch of people looking for a way to exclude them). If Bama beats uga, they'll be watching others play for the Championship. Then there will be a huge push to increase the number of teams in the playoffs.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Here's a scenario to ponder: Bama loses to Auburn or somebody, and with two losses beats Georgia in the SEC title game. Does a two loss Alabama get into the playoffs? If not, how can Georgia get in if they lost to them? I can't see a two loss 'Bama getting in, and it would be weird if Georgia got in after losing to them.

If that happened, both of them would get in over Cincinnati. It’s not right, but that’s exactly what they would do. If you don’t think the committee would put a 2 loss Bama team in over an undefeated Cincinnati team, you are too optimistic.

It pains me to say, but I am pretty much convinced the mutts are winning it all this year.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

If that happened, both of them would get in over Cincinnati. It’s not right, but that’s exactly what they would do. If you don’t think the committee would put a 2 loss Bama team in over an undefeated Cincinnati team, you are too optimistic.

It pains me to say, but I am pretty much convinced the mutts are winning it all this year.

Depressing but all true.

 

[Jmonty71]

If that happened, both of them would get in over Cincinnati. It’s not right, but that’s exactly what they would do. If you don’t think the committee would put a 2 loss Bama team in over an undefeated Cincinnati team, you are too optimistic.

It pains me to say, but I am pretty much convinced the mutts are winning it all this year.

I think, come hell or high water, the NCAA will ALWAYS ensure a SEC team is in the playoffs. ESPN has too much money tied up with the SEC for them to not be there...

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I think, come hell or high water, the NCAA will ALWAYS ensure a SEC team is in the playoffs. ESPN has too much money tied up with the SEC for them to not be there...

ALWAYS, world without end, amen.

 

[orientalnc]

ALWAYS, world without end, amen.

This must be your professional opinion.

 

[forensicbuzz]

If that happened, both of them would get in over Cincinnati. It’s not right, but that’s exactly what they would do. If you don’t think the committee would put a 2 loss Bama team in over an undefeated Cincinnati team, you are too optimistic.

It pains me to say, but I am pretty much convinced the mutts are winning it all this year.

I think in that scenario only one of Bama and uga get in and since Bama just won, uga would be on the outside looking in. Cincy will get in if they’re undefeated. The difference between this year and all other years is that if uga loses, Cincinnati would be ranked #1 in the Coaches’ Poll. How to you overlook an undefeated #1 team to add a 1-loss SEC runner-up? Answer is: you don’t.

Schools like UCF and others that were passed over were never ranked that high. That’s what’s going to get Cincy in if they go undefeated. Now if Cincy loses 1, they may not even make a NYD bowl.

 

[forensicbuzz]

ALWAYS, world without end, amen.

If the SEC champion has two losses, and Cincy goes undefeated, B1G champ is 1 loss or less, B12 champ is undefeated, and Oregon is 1 loss, SEC could get shut out.

Tons of things would have to happen and the stars would have to align, but it could happen.

If that were to happen, the following year the playoff would be expanded to 8-12 teams.

 

[bobongo]

Here is the 538 prediction model. You can click on several scenarios. Interesting that Michigan, Cincy, and Oklahoma winning out while Bama wins the SEC makes uga an improbable CFP team.

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Just make one click, for Alabama to win out, and it lowers Georgia's chances of making the playoffs down to 42%. 49% even if you also click on Georgia to beat Florida this weekend. I don't know if I believe it, but that's what it says.

 

[grandpa jacket]

ALWAYS, world without end, amen.

They still play Fla and Tn in Knoxville. They could lose either

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

I think in that scenario only one of Bama and uga get in and since Bama just won, uga would be on the outside looking in. Cincy will get in if they’re undefeated. The difference between this year and all other years is that if uga loses, Cincinnati would be ranked #1 in the Coaches’ Poll. How to you overlook an undefeated #1 team to add a 1-loss SEC runner-up? Answer is: you don’t.

Schools like UCF and others that were passed over were never ranked that high. That’s what’s going to get Cincy in if they go undefeated. Now if Cincy loses 1, they may not even make a NYD bowl.

Again, I think you’re being too optimistic. Plus, by seasons end, Cincy probably won’t be ranked that high. For example, the winner of the undefeated match up in Michigan this week will probably jump to #2. These other teams will have chances to get better wins. Cincy doesn’t have that. They barely beat a one win Navy team.

They still play Fla and Tn in Knoxville. They could lose either

They have a legitimately great team in a year where the SEC East is legitimately awful. It’s not happening. The stars have aligned. Our hope is in Saban.

 

[slugboy]

They still play Fla and Tn in Knoxville. They could lose either

I think they might beat a combined Florida+Tennessee team.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I think they might beat a combined Florida+Tennessee team.

If by combined you mean they put 22 players on the field against ugas 11....