I don’t think there’s a ton of merit in the preseason rankings. They’re basically just a guess based on who’s been good historically and especially who was good last year. It shouldn’t be a surprise that teams ranked high in the preseason ended up being good, they’re usually the largest programs with the biggest budgets and influence. This year’s preseason rankings also had some huge misses. Michigan at #9, FSU at #10, Utah at #12, Oklahoma at #16, Oklahoma State at #17, USC at #23. They also omitted teams like Indiana, South Carolina, Illinois, and BYU.
There’s an inherent bias towards the large programs in the preseason. “Well they’re always good, so they’ll be good again this year.” Compared to “they’re never any good, why would I vote for them?” Most years it works out, because the large programs who were good last year are probably going to be good again, but nobody really knows, they just assume.
The point of my prior post wasn’t to highlight the intellectual superiority of preseason pollsters, just to acknowledge that no matter the system, the programs that have been large and powerful will probably remain that way. They have the largest fanbases, which generally correlates to the largest budgets and influence in the media. I don’t really see any program that hasn’t been relevant nationally since the turn of the century really making a deep run in the playoff. It’s definitely good that the opportunity is there now, but the nature of football favors the bigger, stronger, faster, and better on paper team more often than not.