Brent Key is not the answer

[cpf2001]

We’ve been losing to those patsies. Bowling Green is one of the 20 weakest teams in FBS.

Unless we’re moving to the MAC conference, there’s not a ton Batt can do.

We just need to play them on the road. They can pay us that way too!

 

[Techster]

One thing I try to keep in perspective about Key is he's still learning on the job. Being an assistant at high level programs ('Bama, GT) and at other good programs (UCF) never prepares you for being the main guy in a head coach's spotlight and actually trying to make decisions as the bullets are flying. Most of his career he's been focused on one aspect of the program, now he's in charge of EVERYTHING.

Yes, he had an 8 game head start last year, but every game presents you with different situations. I'm sure if he could go back, he probably wouldn't have taken that time out before the punt against BC and just gotten the 5 yard penalty given that in that situation 5 yards wasn't as valuable as a timeout. There will be different scenarios that will come every game, and it will be a learning opportunity for Key. Most HC's get to cut their teeth at a smaller school before being elevated to this level. Key, through a confluence of events and being at the right school, is getting to learn "on the job" and is getting his baptism at the P5 level.

If he starts to repeat the same mistakes, like a certain someone he recently gave a golden parachute to, then I'd be worried. I think we're all disappointed that this season could have certainly been much better than where we are now, but the full story of this season hasn't been written. Key, I have faith, will be a much better coach as the season progresses...and hopefully the team reflects that growth as well.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The “Tech” coaching tree is one way to look at it but it doesn’t include the philosophy of a particular coach.

You should include Ray Graves (70-31-4) and Frank Broyles (149-62-6), both of whom were assistants to Dodd. Dodd, of course, apprenticed under Neyland (173-31-12). Neyland had his Seven Maxims of football, which described his particular approach to the game. (Dodd used these but rephrased many of them.)

Tech has lost ALL of that.

Dodd certainly had impressive assistant coaches.

 

[tmhunter52]

I went with four wins but am guilty of continuing to underestimate the manic depression involved in attaining the four wins.

I went with 4, too, but I now think 3 wins is it.

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

I went with 4, too, but I now think 3 wins is it.

Well, there is this from the king of lazy takes...

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

The first thing J Batt needs to do is cancel ALL tough out-of-conference games and schedule “patsies”, assuming he can find patsies worse than we are. As we start winning games, we will win back fans and we will make bowl games.

But there’s some on here that say we should play Ohio St, Michigan, Penn State, USC, and Wisconsin every year. Or Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and LSU.

 

[Thwg777]

We’ve been losing to those patsies. Bowling Green is one of the 20 weakest teams in FBS.

Unless we’re moving to the MAC conference, there’s not a ton Batt can do.

I think there’s some merit to getting some type of independent analysis for why our home field ‘disadvantage’ is so strong? That seems like something an AD could commission. The home/road trends are so disparaging there must be factors we’re either doing or not doing to explain it. And our staff seems inept to figure it out.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

But there’s some on here that say we should play Ohio St, Michigan, Penn State, USC, and Wisconsin every year. Or Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and LSU.

The trade off is having more TV / Conference money and better attended games. But if we stay in ACC, which is most likely, we need a schedule like uga had this year. They are getting fat on cupcakes and only have to get up for one or two games.

 

[stinger78]

The trade off is having more TV / Conference money and better attended games. But if we stay in ACC, which is most likely, we need a schedule like uga had this year. They are getting fat on cupcakes and only have to get up for one or two games.

Meanwhile, we seem to be choking on cupcakes.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Meanwhile, we seem to be choking on cupcakes.

 

[Vespidae]

The trade off is having more TV / Conference money and better attended games. But if we stay in ACC, which is most likely, we need a schedule like uga had this year. They are getting fat on cupcakes and only have to get up for one or two games.

I think this is exactly right. But I think it goes even further. Tech has to define what it expects. Does it expect to compete for a Natty every year? Or, can GT keep the donations coming in, fans somewhat happy, and get tv revenue for a habitual 7-5 team?

Figure out the goal, then figure out the schedule.

In the last 20 years, only twice has an ACC team won a Natty, so that’s probably out.

 

[stinger78]

Since 2000, the NC has been from these conferences:
SEC: 13
ACC: 3
B1G: 2
B12: 2
P12: 1 (1 vacated)
BE: 1

Kind of makes you throw up in your mouth a bit.

 

[yeti92]

I think this is exactly right. But I think it goes even further. Tech has to define what it expects. Does it expect to compete for a Natty every year? Or, can GT keep the donations coming in, fans somewhat happy, and get tv revenue for a habitual 7-5 team?

Figure out the goal, then figure out the schedule.

In the last 20 years, only twice has an ACC team won a Natty, so that’s probably out.

The ACC has won 3 Nattys in the past 10 years.

 

[Vespidae]

The ACC has won 3 Nattys in the past 10 years.

immediately reminds me of Lyman Hall … "In the first place I would put accuracy." - Sir Archibald Geike

 

[slugboy]

I think there’s some merit to getting some type of independent analysis for why our home field ‘disadvantage’ is so strong? That seems like something an AD could commission. The home/road trends are so disparaging there must be factors we’re either doing or not doing to explain it. And our staff seems inept to figure it out.

Since 2019, we're 8-14 on the road, for a winning percentage of 36.3%
Since 2019, we're 9-21 at home, for a winning percentage of 30% (including "neutral" sites)

Duke was our last major home win, on Oct 8 2022 (assuming the listing I have is correct). Before that, to get a FBS win at Bobby Dodd, it's Duke again in 2020.

I haven't done a significance test, but

1. We definitely don't have a home field ADVANTAGE, but I don't think it's clear that there's a "disadvantage". We're 6% worse at home.
2. I'd say "not being a good team" is the bigger factor, above and beyond home field and the crowd.

This didn't take long to pull up, though: https://nique.net/sports/2023/01/27/home-football-game-attendance-at-all-time-low/

Simple answer--whatever you might want to say about Johnson, people showed up and we had a decent record. TFG slashed both attendance and wins. The hole we're in was dug by TFG. We're not out of the hole.

It's going to be very hard to win back the fans that left and get them in the seats. Mostly, new generations of fans need to be cultivated from scratch. Key has a massive turnaround job, and he's got to make hard decisions.

 

[Thwg777]

Since 2019, we're 8-14 on the road, for a winning percentage of 36.3%
Since 2019, we're 9-21 at home, for a winning percentage of 30% (including "neutral" sites)

Duke was our last major home win, on Oct 8 2022 (assuming the listing I have is correct). Before that, to get a FBS win at Bobby Dodd, it's Duke again in 2020.

I haven't done a significance test, but

1. We definitely don't have a home field ADVANTAGE, but I don't think it's clear that there's a "disadvantage". We're 6% worse at home.
2. I'd say "not being a good team" is the bigger factor, above and beyond home field and the crowd.

This didn't take long to pull up, though: https://nique.net/sports/2023/01/27/home-football-game-attendance-at-all-time-low/

Simple answer--whatever you might want to say about Johnson, people showed up and we had a decent record. TFG slashed both attendance and wins. The hole we're in was dug by TFG. We're not out of the hole.

It's going to be very hard to win back the fans that left and get them in the seats. Mostly, new generations of fans need to be cultivated from scratch. Key has a massive turnaround job, and he's got to make hard decisions.

Thanks for putting together the data. I agree the bottom line winning percents aren’t all that different between home / away but the spreads certainly are. By that I mean we don’t play FCS or MAC opponents on the road. The home schedule is relatively much more favorable than the road schedule. That difference, coupled with the actual game results, is why I concluded the home field disadvantage is statistically significant.

 

[bobongo]

Thanks for putting together the data. I agree the bottom line winning percents aren’t all that different between home / away but the spreads certainly are. By that I mean we don’t play FCS or MAC opponents on the road. The home schedule is relatively much more favorable than the road schedule. That difference, coupled with the actual game results, is why I concluded the home field disadvantage is statistically significant.

Four of the nine home wins since 2019 have been against South Florida, Kennesaw State, Western Carolina, and South Carolina State.

 

[Sheboygan]

One thing I try to keep in perspective about Key is he's still learning on the job. Being an assistant at high level programs ('Bama, GT) and at other good programs (UCF) never prepares you for being the main guy in a head coach's spotlight and actually trying to make decisions as the bullets are flying. Most of his career he's been focused on one aspect of the program, now he's in charge of EVERYTHING.

Yes, he had an 8 game head start last year, but every game presents you with different situations. I'm sure if he could go back, he probably wouldn't have taken that time out before the punt against BC and just gotten the 5 yard penalty given that in that situation 5 yards wasn't as valuable as a timeout. There will be different scenarios that will come every game, and it will be a learning opportunity for Key. Most HC's get to cut their teeth at a smaller school before being elevated to this level. Key, through a confluence of events and being at the right school, is getting to learn "on the job" and is getting his baptism at the P5 level.

If he starts to repeat the same mistakes, like a certain someone he recently gave a golden parachute to, then I'd be worried. I think we're all disappointed that this season could have certainly been much better than where we are now, but the full story of this season hasn't been written. Key, I have faith, will be a much better coach as the season progresses...and hopefully the team reflects that growth as well.

After watching Key's press conference this morning, I agree with you. Despite squeezing out 4 wins last year, Key still has a major rebuild in progress, on the defensive side especially. IMO, 2024-25 will tell the tale. Even with a supposedly tougher schedule, with more of his recruits , a year of experience with King and the OC, and a decision on who will be the DC at the end of this season- not next spring, or later, I am expecting a big jump up.
I certainly hoped for more obvious improvements so far this year, we all did. But to say "Key is not the answer" at this point is really premature, IMO.

 

[tmhunter52]

Since 2019, we're 8-14 on the road, for a winning percentage of 36.3%
Since 2019, we're 9-21 at home, for a winning percentage of 30% (including "neutral" sites)

Duke was our last major home win, on Oct 8 2022 (assuming the listing I have is correct). Before that, to get a FBS win at Bobby Dodd, it's Duke again in 2020.

I haven't done a significance test, but

1. We definitely don't have a home field ADVANTAGE, but I don't think it's clear that there's a "disadvantage". We're 6% worse at home.
2. I'd say "not being a good team" is the bigger factor, above and beyond home field and the crowd.

This didn't take long to pull up, though: https://nique.net/sports/2023/01/27/home-football-game-attendance-at-all-time-low/

Simple answer--whatever you might want to say about Johnson, people showed up and we had a decent record. TFG slashed both attendance and wins. The hole we're in was dug by TFG. We're not out of the hole.

It's going to be very hard to win back the fans that left and get them in the seats. Mostly, new generations of fans need to be cultivated from scratch. Key has a massive turnaround job, and he's got to make hard decisions.

“Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing.” Lombardi

 

[tmhunter52]

After watching Key's press conference this morning, I agree with you. Despite squeezing out 4 wins last year, Key still has a major rebuild in progress, on the defensive side especially. IMO, 2024-25 will tell the tale. Even with a supposedly tougher schedule, with more of his recruits , a year of experience with King and the OC, and a decision on who will be the DC at the end of this season- not next spring, or later, I am expecting a big jump up.
I certainly hoped for more obvious improvements so far this year, we all did. But to say "Key is not the answer" at this point is really premature, IMO.

Key made a big mistake retaining Thacker as DC from last year. 2023 is pretty much a wasted season as a result.